Plunging Crude Prices: Impact on U.S. and State Economies
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1 Plunging Crude Prices: Impact on U.S. and State Economies Mine Yücel Senior Vice President and Director of Research August 7, 215
2 Oil and gas prices plunge Nominal price, $, weekly Oil Price Natural Gas Price * $47.91 $
3 Outline How did we get here? World oil supply/demand balance Impact on U.S. economy Impact on state economies Where do we go from here?
4 4 World Consumption and Non-OPEC Production Growth Million barrels per day (Year-over-year) World oil consumption growth 4 Non-OPEC production growth Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 Source: Energy Information Administration.
5 Million barrels per day 4 World Oil Consumption and Production Growth (Year-over-year) World oil consumption growth 3 Non-OPEC production growth OPEC production growth Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 Source: Energy Information Administration.
6 Production of crude up since January 214 Million barrels per day change since January U.S. Saudi Arabia Iraq Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15
7 IMPACT ON U.S. ECONOMY
8 U.S. Oil and Gas Production Million barrels per day Billion cubic feet per day 12 1 Crude Oil July 215 Estimates Natural Gas Source: Energy Information Administration.
9 U.S. Crude Oil Production From Shale Thousand barrels per day 4 35 Texas 3, ,644 Kansas Montana Utah Colorado Wyoming North Dakota 1,21 1,98 5 New Mexico 236 Oklahoma Jan 21 May 215 Jan 21 May 215 Jan 21 May 215 Source: Energy Information Administration
10 U.S. imports of crude oil have fallen below production Million barrels per day 12 1 Imports Production Source: Energy Information Administration
11 Rig count plunges, oil production levels Million barrels per day U.S. Rig Count Rig Count 2 July Estimate Oil Production Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 8 Source: Oil and Gas Journal; Baker Hughes.
12 Drilling investment falls with rig count Private Fixed Investment in Mining/Exploration Bln Chained 29$ Investment in Mining/Exploration OPEC Decision Rig Count U.S. Rig Count SOURCES: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Baker Hughes.
13 Impact on U.S. Economy The U.S. benefits from lower oil prices Boosts consumer disposable income The decline in gasoline prices adds $675 to household budgets in 215 Reduces the cost of energy to firms Reduces profitability of producing oil Layoffs and Capex declines in energy firms A 5% fall in oil prices may lead to a.3% to 1.% increase in GDP (depending on the model) Headline inflation falls
14 IMPACT ON STATE ECONOMIES
15 Regional Effects Increased energy activity brings oil and gas extraction and oil-field support jobs Local areas: lease and royalty payments, infrastructure construction and increased spending on retail, leisure and hospitality, and health services. Local governments: greater sales taxes State governments: increased severance tax revenues
16 Low oil prices benefit most states (Effect of a 5% decline in oil prices on employment)
17 Energy Related Employment Percentage of nonagricultural 14 Alaska Louisiana North Dakota New Mexico Oklahoma Texas West Virginia Wyoming Oil & gas operations Petrochemicals Oil field equipment Coal mining Refining
18 Texas posted third-fastest job growth VT AK VA SD NE MS MT ME HI WV Percent Change (Dec/Dec) 8 among states in Texas 2 U.S ND FL TX GA UT NV OR CO WA CA NC SC AR AZ TN U.S. DE ID KY MA LA WY MI WI OK NY AL NM MD CT IN IA KS OH NH MN RI PA IL MO NJ SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; FRB Dallas.
19 NV UT SD ID WA MI SC FL CO CAHI MA OR IN VT NY RI U.S. NC CT MN ME KY IA VA MD GA TN DE AR NJ MT OH MO TX MS PA NH WI AZ IL AL KS NE OK AK WV WY ND In 215, Texas ranks a distant 34 th Percent Change (year-to-date) 5 4 in job growth so far U.S. Texas -4 NM LA NOTE: Year-to-date is through June and rate is annualized. SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; FRB Dallas.
20 Rig count, Weekly 24 2 Rig count bottoming out? Oklahoma Rig count, Weekly Louisiana Texas New Mexico NOTE: Last data point is June 5th. SOURCE: Baker Hughes.
21 Index, Jan.'6=1, SA Initial jobless claims may be peaking June North Dakota Texas Louisiana Oklahoma U.S. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Labor.
22 Percent 9 Some states rely heavily on oil and gas severance taxes (Share of state tax revenues) % taxes collected AK ND WY NM LA TX OK CO CA Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 213 annual survey of state government tax collections; EIA.
23 Texas job growth outpaces the U.S., Year-over-year rate (%) 1 especially during energy booms Texas nonfarm payroll employment TX average = 2.7% -6-8 mid-197s to early 198s oil boom 26- recent energy boom '71 '74 '77 '8 '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '1 '4 '7 '1 '13 NOTE: Shaded bars indicate U.S. recessions. SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Texas Workforce Commission; authors' calculations.
24 Texas job growth outpaces the U.S., Year-over-year rate (%) 1 especially during energy booms Texas nonfarm payroll employment mid-197s to early 198s oil boom U.S. nonfarm payroll employment 26- recent energy boom '71 '74 '77 '8 '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '1 '4 '7 '1 '13 NOTE: Shaded bars indicate U.S. recessions. SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Texas Workforce Commission; authors' calculations.
25 Texas rig counts bottoming out Rig count 5 Permian Rigs (TX only) Eagle Ford Rigs TX Oil Production* Million barrels per day Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15.
26 Oil price impact on the Texas economy Oil price declines hurt Texas In Texas, oil price decline benefits: consumers, refiners Oil price decline hurts: oil producers and all industries that benefitted from the oil boom 5% sustained oil price decline leads to a 1.2 % decline in Texas employment=> 14, jobs State severance taxes will decline
27 WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?
28 Crude Price Forecast Dollars per barrel Historical Spot Price STEO Price Forecast NYMEX Futures Price 95% NYMEX Futures Confidence Interval Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Source: Energy Information Administration.
29 Outlook Market is adjusting Lower prices are leading to a contraction of supply and increase in demand Global GDP growth is expected to rise over time U.S. supply response will be swifter than in the past Uncertainties abound Oil price risks more on the downside in the short run Overall U.S. economy should continue to benefit from lower oil prices.
30 Million barrels per day 1. Gasoline consumption strong June 215 Preliminary July 215 Preliminary Average Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
31 Outlook Market is adjusting Lower prices have led to a contraction of supply and increase in demand Global GDP growth expected to rise over time Uncertainties abound Oil price risks more on the downside in the short run
32 Plunging Crude Prices: Impact on U.S. and State Economies Mine Yücel
33 Oil and Gas Share of Tax Revenue
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