Zions Bank Economic Overview

Transcription

1 Zions Bank Economic Overview Utah League of Cities and Towns June 18, 2018

2 Utah Economic Conditions

3 CA 0.6% OR 1.4% WA 1.7% NV 2.0% Utah Population 3 rd Fastest Growing in U.S. ID 2.2% UT 1.9% AZ 1.6% AK -0.2% MT 1.1% WY -1.0% CO 1.4% NM 0.1% Percent Change: 2016 to 2017 U.S. Rate = 0.7% ND 0.0% SD 0.9% NE 0.7% TX 1.4% KS 0.3% 0.2% OK 0.2% MN 0.9% IA 0.5% MO 0.4% AR 0.5% WI 0.4% LA 0.0% IL -0.3% MS 0.0% MI 0.3% IN 0.5% TN 1.0% AL 0.3% OH 0.3% KY 0.4% WV -0.7% VT 0.0% PA 0.1% NC 1.1% SC 1.3% GA 1.1% VA 0.7% FL 1.6% NH 0.6% NY 0.1% ME 0.4% DC 1.4% CT 0.0% DE 1.0% MD 0.5% MA 0.5% RI 0.2% NJ 0.4% 1.5% + 0.7% to 1.4% 0.2% to 0.6% 0.0% to 0.1% Loss HI -0.1% Source: U.S. Census Bureau

4 Utah Counties Growth Outpacing Nation Percent Change: 2016 to 2017 U.S. Rate = 0.7% 1.5% + 0.7% to 1.4% 0.2% to 0.6% 0.0% to 0.1% Loss Source: U.S. Census Bureau

5 Utah Population and Components of Change Total Population 3,600,000 3,300,000 3,000,000 2,700,000 2,400,000 2,100,000 1,800,000 1,500,000 1,200, , , , ,101,833 22,587 34,886 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,000-20,000 Components of Population Change Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population Sources: U.S. Census Bureau e = estimate, f = forecast

6 Utah Population Growth Rates By County 2016 to 2017 State Average = 1.9% 3.0%+ 1.8% to 2.9% 1.0% to 1.7% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Source: U.S. Census Bureau

7 Greater Wasatch Population Growth Rates By City 2015 to 2016 State Average = 1.8% 3.0%+ 1.8% to 2.9% 1.0% to 1.7% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Source: U.S. Census Bureau

8 Salt Lake County Population Average Growth Rates 2010 to 2017 State Average = 1.7% 3.0%+ 1.8% to 2.9% 1.0% to 1.7% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Source: U.S. Census Bureau

9 Utah County Population Average Growth Rates 2010 to 2017 State Average = 1.7% 3.0%+ 1.8% to 2.9% 1.0% to 1.7% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Source: U.S. Census Bureau

10 Davis County Population Average Growth Rates 2010 to 2017 State Average = 1.7% 3.0%+ 1.8% to 2.9% 1.0% to 1.7% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Source: U.S. Census Bureau

11 Weber County Population Average Growth Rates 2010 to 2017 State Average = 1.7% 3.0%+ 1.8% to 2.9% 1.0% to 1.7% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Source: U.S. Census Bureau

12 Washington County Average Growth Rates 2010 to 2017 State Average = 1.7% 3.0%+ 1.8% to 2.9% 1.0% to 1.7% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Source: U.S. Census Bureau

13 Cache County Average Growth Rates 2010 to 2017 State Average = 1.7% 3.0%+ 1.8% to 2.9% 1.0% to 1.7% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Source: U.S. Census Bureau

14 Utah has the Fastest Employment Growth Percent Change in Employment for States: May 2017 to May 2018 U.S. Rate = 1.7% UT Rate = 3.4% NH 1.9% MA 1.6% 2.0% + 1.6% to 1.9% 1.0% to 1.5% HI 1.7% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

15 Utah Total Employment at New Highs 1,600 1,500 Gain of 339,700 jobs from low in 2010 Thousands of Employees 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, Loss of 92,000 jobs from Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Numbers rounded to nearest thousand Total Nonfarm Employment

16 Utah Industries Seeing Growth Percent Change in Utah Employment by Industry: May 2017 to May 2018 Ntl. Res. & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government -3.5% Total: 3.5% 0.3% 0.5% 1.6% 2.9% 3.1% 4.5% 4.4% 3.6% 4.0% 7.6% -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 12% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

17 Utah Industries Seeing Growth Total Change in Utah Employment by Industry: May 2017 to May 2018 Ntl. Res. & Mining Construction ,400 Manufacturing 3,700 Trade, Trans., Utilities 12,400 Information Financial Activity 100 2,600 Total: 51,900 Prof. & Bus. Serv. 9,100 Ed. & Health Serv. 7,000 Leisure & Hospitality Other Services 200 5,700 Government 4,000-3,000-1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 7,000 9,000 11,00013,00015,000 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

18 Changes and Differences Between US and Utah Economies Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of BEA National and Product Account Data

19 Changes in Utah s Tax base Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Utah office of Legislative Research and General counsel data

20 Utah Employment Change Rates By County May 2017 to May 2018 State Rate = 3.4% 5.0% + 3.3% to 4.9% 1.0% to 3.2% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

21 Utah Has the 11 th Lowest Unemployment Rate May 2018 U.S. Rate = 3.8%; UT = 3.0% VT 3.4% NH 4.4% MA 3.8% CT NJ 3.9% 2.7% RI 3.5% MD 2.6% DC 5.7% 6.0% + 5.5% to 5.9% 4.8% to 5.4% 4.0% to 4.7% 3.9% or less Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

22 Utah Unemployment Rates By County April 2018 State Rate = 3.1% 7.0% + 6.0% to 6.9% 4.0% to 5.9% 3.2% to 3.9% 3.1% or lower Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

23 Utah Personal Income Growth 3 rd Highest in the Nation Percent Change in Personal Income : U.S. = 3.1%, UT = 4.4% ID = 4.7% VT 3.4% NH 4.4% MA 3.8% CT NJ 3.9% 2.7% RI 3.5% MD 2.6% DE 2.5% DC 5.7% 4.0% or more 3.6% to 3.9% 2.0% to 3.5% 0.0% to 1.9% Decrease Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

24 Utah Poverty Rate 7 th Lowest in the Nation CA 14.3% WA 11.3% OR 13.3% NV 13.8% AK 9.9% ID 14.4% UT 10.1% AZ 16.3% 2016 U.S. Rate = 14.0%, Utah Rate = 10.1% MT 13.3% WY 11.3% HI 9.3% CO 11.0% NM 19.8% ND 10.6% SD 13.3% NE 11.4% KS 12.1% TX 15.6% OK 16.3% MN 9.9% IA 11.8% MO 14.0% AR 17.1% WI 11.8% LA 20.1% IL 13.0% MS 20.8% 18.1% + MI 15.0% IN 14.1% TN 15.8% AL 17.1% 15.1% to 18.0% 12.1% to 15.0% 10.1% to 12.0% 10.0% or less OH 14.6% KY 18.5% WV 17.8% VT 11.9% PA 12.9% VA 11.0% NC 15.4% SC 15.3% GA 16.0% FL 14.6% NH 7.2% NY 14.6% ME 12.5% DC 18.6% CT 9.8% DE 11.6% MD 9.6% MA 10.4% RI 12.8% NJ 10.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Community Survey 1-year estimate

25 Strong Consumer Sentiment Jul-12 Above 110 indicates economic prosperity Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Nov-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: Zions Bank Utah Consumer Attitude Index: Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Sources: Conference Board and Cicero Group

26 Year-over-year percent change 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% Utah Inflation Hits Highest-Level Recorded Jul-2011 Oct-2011 Jan-2012 Apr-2012 Jul-2012 Oct-2012 Jan-2013 Apr-2013 Jul-2013 Oct-2013 Jan-2014 Apr-2014 Jul-2014 Oct-2014 Jan-2015 Apr-2015 Jul-2015 Oct-2015 Jan-2016 Apr-2016 Jul-2016 Oct-2016 Jan-2017 Apr-2017 Jul-2017 Utah 5.0% US 2.8% Oct-2017 Jan-2018 Apr-2018 United States CPI: +2.8% Zions Bank Wasatch Front CPI: +5.0% Source: U.S. CPI from National Bureau of Labor Statistics and Wasatch Front CPI from Cicero Group

27 $275,000 $255,000 $235,000 $215,000 $195,000 $175,000 $155,000 $135,000 $115,000 $95, Utah home values continue to rise Utah Dec $262, U.S. Dec $206, United States Utah Source: Zillow Research

28 Household Creation Surpasses Housing Units Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Population Projections and Ivory Boyer Construction Database

29 Home Prices Increasing Faster Than Wages Source: Wall Street Journal

30 Source: Wall Street Journal Multigenerational Households on the Rise

31 Utah Economic Indicators f Population Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate Personal Income Home Prices Retail Sales e 2018f 2019f Sources: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group, Moody s Economy.com, IHS Global Insights e = estimate f = forecast

32 Zions Bank, A Division of ZB, N.A. Member FDIC. Content is offered for informational purposes only and should not be construed as tax, legal, financial or business advice. Please contact a professional about your specific needs and advice. Content may contain trademarks or trade names owned by parties who are not affiliated with ZB, N.A. Use of such marks does not imply any sponsorship by or affiliation with third parties, and ZB, N.A. does not claim any ownership of or make representations about products and services offered under or associated with such marks. Robert Spendlove Economic and Public Policy Officer Robert.Spendlove@zionsbank.com Phone: