Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook
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1 Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook Presentation to: Southeast Fairfax Development Corporation Mount Vernon Lee Chamber of Commerce Terry L. Clower, Ph.D. Director, Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University April 6, 2017
2 Annual Job Change - Washington MSA 000 s MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs 000 s 110 3, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3,250 3,200 3,150 3,100 3,050 3,000 2,950 2,900 2,850 Feb 16- Feb K Feb-17 Total: 3,237 K
3 (000s) Federal Government Washington MSA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis (000s) Feb 16- Feb 17 +1,900 MOTYC Total Jobs Feb-17 Total: 367K
4 $ Billions Federal Procurement in the Washington MSA (Fiscal Years) 82.4 TOTAL = $1,409.7 Billion Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report and USAspending.gov
5 (000s) 25 Professional & Business Services Washington MSA Feb 16- Feb K MOTYC Total Jobs Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Feb-17 Total: 742.1K
6 (Ranked by Size in 2016) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Federal Govt. State & Local Govt Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade Other Services Construction Financial Information Transp. & Util. Wlse Trade Manufacturing -3.2 Job Change by Sector Feb 2016 Feb 2017 Washington MSA (000s) Total = 62, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
7 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: Feb 2016 Feb 2017 Washington +2.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
8 (000s) (000s) Median House Sales Price Washington MSA $379.4K Feb 2017 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
9 Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-Year , MSA % Chg Inv Inventory Thousands FEB -9.6% Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis. Total monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month.
10 Population Change 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, ,000-40,000 Elements of Population Change Washington MSA 1.9% 1.6% 1.5% 1.1% +1.0% +0.9% 22,979 5,525 3,827 37,714 38,895 36,749 40,119 42,240 40,581 49,005 49,178 47,773 48,669 46,424 43,886-26,362-29,417-31,010 Net Domestic Migration Net Int'l Migration Natural Increase Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, V2016
11 Annual Job Change Northern VA 000 s MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs 000 s 50 1, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1,460 1,440 1,420 1,400 1,380 1,360 1,340 1,320 1,300 1,280 Feb 16- Feb K Feb-17 Total: 1,441 K
12 (Ranked by Size in 2016) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Federal Govt. Other Services Financial Construction Transp. & Util. Information Wlse Trade Manufacturing Job Change by Sector Feb 2016 Feb 2017 Northern Virginia (000s) Total 30, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
13 Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area DC 4.7 U.S. 3.9 MSA 3.9 SMD 3.3 NVA 2 0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted)
14 Employment Composition by Sector Mount Vernon/Lee Supervisor Districts 2016 Q4 Professional & Business Services Retail Trade Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Construction Other Services Transportation & Utilities Financial Activites Wholesale Trade Manufacturing Information Public Administration 6.1% 4.8% 3.5% 3.1% 1.8% 1.7% 1.0% 9.2% 12.5% 15.3% 15.3% 25.1% Source: Chmura Economics: Jobs EQ, 2016Q4 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 14
15 2,000 1,500 1, ,000-1,500-2,000-2,500-3,000-3,500 Annual Job Change Mount Vernon/Lee Supervisor Districts QOTYC Source: Chmura Economics: Jobs EQ, 2016Q4, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Non-Farm Jobs 77,000 76,500 76,000 75,500 75,000 74,500 74,000 73,500 73,000 72,500 72, Q4 Total: 75,758
16 4 2 % U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP (Annual % Change) U.S. % 0-2 Washington Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: January, 2017
17 Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (000s) D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Source: BLS, IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (December 2016) NOTE: The regional totals do not include Jefferson, WV. Average Annual Change = 37,300
18 Top Current Job Advertisements Mount Vernon/Lee Supervisor Districts Title Current Online Job Ads Employment Avg. Annual Wages Projected Demand Computer Occupations, All Other $110, Network and Computer Systems Administrators $102, Retail Salespersons 222 3,402 $28, First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers $50, Information Security Analysts $111, Computer User Support Specialists $62, Detectives and Criminal Investigators $116,500 1 Management Analysts $105, Software Developers, Applications $112, Business Operations Specialists, All Other $96, Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 102 2,051 $22, Total - All Occupations 5,158 75,758 $56,600 13,322 Source: Chmura Economics: Jobs EQ, 2016Q4, Data represent found online ads active between 3/1/2017 3/31/2017
19
20 Where are we? We are growing: Some diversification Some catch-up Recent job growth across all wage levels Growth will continue in 2017, but at a moderate pace Advantages Government Center International Institutions Connectivity to the World Concentration of Leaders Access to capital High Quality-of-Life Diverse Population Higher Education Educated Work Force Advanced Occupational Specializations Challenges Trump budget Drain the swamp/sequester Further market shifts needed Cost of living/doing business Mobility Access to capital Regional branding / cooperation Globally competitive? Understanding changing nature of jobs Productivity
21 More Data Available at cra.gmu.edu
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