Sussex Demographic and Labor Market Trends

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1 Sussex Demographic and Labor Market Trends Ed Simon (302) October 29, 2008

2 Introduction Demographic Update Update on short-term and long-term trends How Sussex is very different than other areas How demographic change can be an asset Challenges and Opportunities New Information Focus on how the labor market is changing What we can expect Where our economic strengths are Occupational trends

3 Topics Demographic Trends Population/Age trends Impact on job market Impact on future trends Local Business Trends Industry sectors for Sussex Jobs, wages & growth by industry Focus on Tourism High pay vs. Low Industries Occupational Information

4 Sussex - Overview Historically Sussex has had Lower unemployment rates than the U.S. and Delaware: : 3.3% (Sussex) vs. 4.6% (U.S.), 3.6% (DE) But this year the unemployment rates have been rising : 4.3% (Sussex) vs. 5.3% (U.S.), 4.1% (DE) Since 2000 Job growth here has been at a much faster pace than for U.S and Delaware Recent industry trends Since 2002 job growth has been strong but recently things have slowed considerably in some of our key industries Aging population Median age in Sussex is much higher than in other areas

5 People Demographic Trends

6 Demographic Overview Sussex Population growth up 65% since 1990 (113,200 to 187,300). Kent +38% New Castle +21% Delaware +31% Since 2000, Sussex population rose by nearly 30, , , , , , , , , , , ,

7 Demographic Overview (Cont.) Employment Status (Residents) Employed = 90,000 Unemployed/actively seeking = 4,000 Not in the labor force, 16 years+ = 60,000 (retired, in school, or not looking for work) Only 59.3% of Sussex population (age 16+) is in the labor force, compared to 64.8% for both Delaware and the U.S. 55+ age group: 29.7% of those in Sussex are in the labor force; 36.4% for Delaware; and 33.0% for U.S. We need to utilize this resource of potential workers Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Stat.; and U.S. Census Bureau

8 In an Average Month in Sussex Persons are born 160 Persons die 309 Persons move here from another area Source: U.S. Census Bureau (7/06 to 7/07)

9 Long Term Population Trends Sussex 300, , , : 23% in to 41% in , ,000 Age 55+ Under 55 50, Source: Delaware Population Consortium

10 Population by Age Group Sussex 1980, 2008, and ,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Age Groups Source: Delaware Population Consortium D

11 Population by Age Group Sussex 1980, 2008, and ,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Age Groups Source: Delaware Population Consortium D

12 Population by Age Group Sussex 1980, 2008, and ,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Age Groups Source: Delaware Population Consortium D

13 Population/Age Impact on County Increased School Population Age Group Pop. Change 2008 to , , , , , , ,125 Expanded opportunities and need for education/training Working age population will not experience much growth Focus on retention of young persons Aging Population will impact: Health Care Eldercare Transportation Social Services More Affordable Homes for Young Adults and Retirees More Planned Communities (Adult Communities) with services

14 Workers Sussex Workers by Age Group All Industries 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Age Groups Census Bureau Local Employment Dynamics (LED)

15 Age Distribution by Industry 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Construction Tourism Agr. (Farms) Other Industries 45+ Age Years Census Bureau Local Employment Dynamics (LED)

16 Educational Attainment Persons 25 Years and over Sussex U.S. Less Than High School High school grad. Or higher Bachelor s Degree or higher 16.5% 15.5% 83.5% 84.5% 19.9% 27.5% Source: 2007 American Community Survey

17 Demographic Summary Sussex (population) has grown much faster than the State and other counties. We expect this trend to continue. 60,000 of our residents are not in the labor force. (possible asset source of workers). The largest increase in our population will come from persons age 65+. The need to attract and retain younger workers to replace Baby-Boomers will be a major priority. We need to find ways to extend careers and introduce encore careers to our senior population. Although education attainment has improved, we must continue to improve the quality of our workforce.

18 Industry Local Business Trends

19 Growth Index Jobs have grown faster in Sussex Sussex Delaware U.S. Index:1996 = Increase Sussex 33.6% Del. 16.1% U.S. 15.0% Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

20 Housing Production Number of Units* 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 NCC Kent Sussex 1, '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 *These numbers represent new housing units authorized by building permits. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

21 Realty Transfer Tax Sussex Impact of a slowing Real Estate Market Sussex County Council 2009 Budget Pre-Audit Est. Budget

22 Where Sussex Works 5.3% 5.0% 18.6% Manufacturing 7.9% Wholesale & Retail Trade Leisure & Hospitality 9.4% Health & Social Assistance Govt./Education 18.0% Services, All Construction 10.9% Finance, Ins., Real Est. Other Ind. 11.5% 13.5% Source: Del. Dept of Labor, OOLMI 2007 Annual Avg.

23 Job Change by Industry 02 to 07 - Sussex Manufacturing Govt./Education Finance, Insurance, Real Est. Health & Social Assistance Construction Leisure & Hospitality Transportation & Utilities Professional & Bus. Services Wholesale & Retail Trade Other Services Agriculture (Farms) Information ,007 1,293 1,266 1,651 1, Change in Number of Jobs

24 Food Production Dominates Mfg.- Sussex, 2007 Total Manufacturing, 13,100 jobs; food production portion (mostly poultry processing) is 8,339; other manufacturing, 4,735 jobs Food Production 11.8% of all Sussex jobs 10.4% of total payroll Other Manufacturing 6.7% jobs in County; 11.4% of payroll Average annual wage; food production $29,100; other manufacturing, $56,000 % of Mfg. Jobs 36% 64% Food Mfg. Other Mfg.

25 Agriculture Sussex has far more acres of farm land than New Castle and Kent combined. Sussex County is the number one broiler producing county in the U.S. Source: Delaware Agriculture Statistics, Poultry is our #1 farm commodity. Soybeans Sussex is the leader in the Delmarva Penninsula with over 83,000 acres. Sussex also leads the region by a large margin in corn for grain production. The county is one of the leading producers of wheat in the 14 county Delmarva Region. Sources of data: (Delaware Dept. of Agriculture; and (The Census of Agriculture)

26 Market Value of Agr. Products Sold - $463 Million in Sussex 8% 5% 2% 1% 2% Poultry & Eggs Milk & Dairy Other Livestock Grains, Beans, Peas Veg., Melons, Potatoes Nursery, Greenhouse, Floriculture 82% Source: 2002 Census of Agriculture

27 Hotel/Motel Revenue Sussex Impact on Tourism $1,400, : up $166,700, +3.9% $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600, $400,000 $200,000 $0 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Source: Del. Dept. of Finance Public Accommodation data base

28 Avg. Annual Wage Total All Industries Delaware $ 47,300 New Castle $ 53,300 Kent $ 36,000 Sussex $ 33, Annual Avg.

29 Poverty Rates, % 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 9.2% 12.6% Sussex Kent New Castle 10.3% 10.5% Delaware 13.0% U.S. Source: U.S. Census Bureau

30 Percent Poverty Rates Sussex U.S. '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07

31 Average Annual Wage by Ind. Sussex (2007) $33,000 Health & Social Assistance Information Transport./Utilities Govt./Education Manufacturing Construction Finance, Insurance & Real Est. Agriculture (Farms) Prof.& Bus. Serv Wholesale & Retail Trade Other Serv. Leisure & Hospitality $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000

32 Jobs Vs. Pay High to Low Job Base Manufacturing 2. Wholesale & Retail Trade 3. Leisure & Hospitality 4. Health & Social Assistance 5. Govt./Education 6. Construction 7. Professional & Bus. Serv. 8. Finance Insurance, & Real Estate 9. Other Services 10. Transportation & Utilities 11. Agriculture (Farms) 12. Information Pay 1. Health & Social Assistance 2. Information 3. Transportation & Utilities 4. Govt./Education 5. Manufacturing 6. Construction 7. Finance, Ins., & Real Estate 8. Agriculture (Farms) 9. Professional & Bus. Serv. 10. Wholesale & Retail Trade 11. Other Services 12. Leisure & Hospitality

33 Industry - Summary Since 1996 job growth in Sussex has been twice as fast as the Statewide rate Most growth has been in low wage industries and occupations Since 2002, 71% of total Sussex job growth has occurred in four sectors: Manufacturing; Government/Education; Finance, Insurance & Real Estate; Health & Social Assistance; and Construction Wages and salaries are lower in Sussex ($33,000 vs $47,300 Del.) Leisure & Hospitality and Wholesale & Retail Trade are very large but relatively low paying industries. These two major groups represent 31.3% of jobs and 21.5% of total payroll. However job growth is slowing in those sectors Industries that have above average annual wages include: Health & Social Assistance, $41,412; Information, $40,113; Transportation/ Utilities, $39,378; Govt./Education, $39331; Manufacturing, $38,847; Construction, $36,916; and Finance, Insurance & Real Estate, $36,508.

34 Occupations Sussex Trends

35 Largest Occupational Groups Sussex 2007 Occupational Group Employment Annual Wage Office and administrative support 10,540 $29,380 Production 9,740 $23,550 Sales and related 8,300 $31,220 Food preparation and serving related 8,000 $20,720 Transportation and material moving 4,620 $26,340 Construction and extraction 4,470 $34,810 Healthcare practitioners and technical 4,140 $61,750 Education, training, and library 3,900 $44,850 Installation, maintenance, and repair 3,310 $34,370 Building & grounds cleaning & maintenance 2,950 $24,060 Healthcare support 2,070 $26,940 U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, (BLS)

36 Largest Specific Occupations Sussex 2007 Meat/Poultry/Fish Cutters 4,780 Retail Salespersons 3,720 Waiters and Waitresses Cashiers Registered Nurses Office Clerks, General Secretaries Nursing Aides/Orderlies Truck Drivers, Heavy Food Prep/Serving Workers 2,050 1,730 1,540 1,460 1,260 1,210 1,200 1, ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 Source: DE Dept. of Labor, Delaware Wages, 2007

37 Selected High Growth Occupations Sussex 06 to Projected Employment Percent Growth Occupational Title Insurance Sales Agents Pharmacy Technicians Veterinary Technologists and Technicians Medical Assistants Physical Therapist Assistants Mental Health and Substance Abuse Social Workers Dental Assistants Physical Therapist Aides Network and Computer Systems Administrators Veterinarians Source: Del. Dept of Labor, OOLMI

38 % of Jobs by Education/Training Bachelor's & Above 12.1 Associates & Postsecondary 9.4 Moderate, Long-term, Work Experience Short-term Sussex, Projections Dept. of Labor, OOLMI

39 % Growth by Education/Training 2006 to 2016 Bachelor's & Above 19.2 Associates & Postsecondary 22.4 Moderate, Long-term, Work Experience 13.3 Short-term Sussex, Projections Dept. of Labor, OOLMI

40 Conclusions Our labor market is facing enormous challenges. The need to attract high-wage and high-skilled jobs is our primary goal. But we ll need to continue to improve and expand the knowledge and skills of our residents. Income levels are rising but the economy is under stress. The current economic downturn has led to much slower job creation and a higher unemployment rate. Housing affordability will continue to be a key issue in attracting and retaining an experienced workforce. Sussex continues to be an attractive tourist and retirement destination. However, the economy and national real estate crisis is slowing our efforts to attract retirees. We need more economic diversification. What about targeting Green Industries? Sussex is facing the challenges of an aging population. We have mentioned this in detail today. This will have a continuing impact on healthcare services and job growth (need for younger workers). More emphasis is needed for attracting and retaining younger workers and families. The future of our economic development is dependant on this. But we will still need to utilize the experience and abilities of our senior population.

Sussex Demographic and Labor Market Trends

Sussex Demographic and Labor Market Trends Ed Simon (302) 672-6845 edward.simon@state.de.us October 28, 2009 Introduction Statistical Update Changing economic and labor market conditions Impact on population