Economic Outlook 2013 Impact on California
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2 The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute business & economics in action FBEI 2013 Economic Outlook 2013 Impact on California 29 th Annual San Diego Economic Roundtable January 25, 2013 Lynn Reaser, Ph.D. Fermanian Business & Economic Institute at PLNU
3 The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute business & economics in action FBEI Real GDP Warms 4 th quarter, percent change over prior year e 2013f
4 The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute business & economics in action FBEI 2013 Interest Rates Diverge Quarter-end, percent Actual Forecast 10-year Treasury Note Fed Funds Target e 2013f
5 The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute business & economics in action FBEI 2013 California s Job Growth Overtakes the Nation s Nonfarm employment, percent change over prior year 4 2 CA 0-2 US
6 The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute business & economics in action FBEI 2013 Most California Sectors Add Jobs Percent change over prior year, October 2012 Information Construction Professional and bus svcs Health care Financial activities Trade, trans, & utils Manufacturing Government
7 The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute business & economics in action FBEI 2013 California s Jobless Rate Remains Above U.S. Percent, seasonally adjusted CA 8 6 US
8 The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute business & economics in action FBEI 2013 State Budget Picture Improves Billions of dollars Carryover Revs - Exp Balance Carryover Revs - Exp Balance FY FY
9 The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute business & economics in action FBEI 2013 California is Top Recipient of U.S. Prime Contracts Billions of dollars, FY California Virginia Maryland Texas Massachusetts
10 The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute business & economics in action FBEI 2013 Californians Take Large Deductions Average deduction, thousands of dollars, 2010 Charitable Real estate State & local taxes Mortgage
11 The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute business & economics in action FBEI 2013 California 2013 Drivers Housing Technology Tourism Trade Agriculture Constraints Public spending Taxes Regulation Health care costs K-12 education
12 The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute business & economics in action FBEI California Home Prices Recover October, percent change over prior year CA single-family homes CA condos Los Angeles Inland Empire S.F. Bay area
13 The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute business & economics in action FBEI 2013 Silicon Valley Dominates Venture Capital Billions of dollars, first 3 quarters of 2012 LA & Orange Counties San Diego Silicon Valley
14 The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute business & economics in action FBEI 2013 California Exports Approach $200 Billion Billions of dollars * *Annualized from first 7 months of 2012 data
15 The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute business & economics in action FBEI Business Starts Flatten Out Annual totals * *Annualized from first 9 months of data, 2012
16 The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute business & economics in action FBEI 2013 Domestic Out-Migration Continues Years ending July 1, thousands
17 The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute business & economics in action FBEI 2013 California to See More Hiring December, change over prior year, thousands e 2013f
18 The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute business & economics in action FBEI 2013 Action Steps Refinance debt Prioritize regulatory reform Broaden tax base, lower rates Curb health care cost spiral Reform education Address pensions
19 The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute business & economics in action FBEI 2013 Summary/Conclusions California continues to recover Job gains broad-based State s fiscal position strengthens Risks: sequestration, budget shortfalls, tipping point
20 2013 Economic Outlook Alan Gin Associate Professor of Economics Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate
21 Employment Growth San Diego County ( Present) Source: Employment Development Department
22 Employment Changes, By Sector 2012 vs Administrative and Waste Services Leisure and Hospitality Health Care Services Wholesale and Retail Trade Professional and Technical Services Finance and Insurance Construction Real Estate Government Total Job Gain = 19,300 Manufacturing Source: Employment Development Department
23 1,350,000 Seasonally Adjusted Employment San Diego County ( Present) 1,300,000 1,250,000 1,200,000 1,150,000 1,100,
24 12.0% Unemployment Rate San Diego, U.S. 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% San Diego U.S.
25 USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County Designed to lead local economy Components: Residential units authorized by building permits Local stock prices Initial claims for unemployment insurance Online help wanted advertising Local consumer confidence National Index of Leading Economic Indicators Short-term forecasting tool 6-12 month outlook
26 November 2012 Index +0.1% Residential units authorized by building permits -0.68% Initial claims for unemployment insurance +1.26% Local stock prices -0.22% Consumer confidence +0.59% Online help wanted advertising +0.25% National Index of Leading Economic Indicators -0.41%
27 130 Index of Leading Economic Indicators San Diego County, J08 J09 J10 J11 J12
28 2013 Outlook Solid but not spectacular growth expected in year ahead Local economy expected to outpace national economy Job growth of 25,000+ in 2013 Unemployment rate to fall to the 8 percent range Job growth in health care, administrative and support services, professional and technical services, leisure and hospitality, and construction Housing market good in 2012, even better in 2013
29 Potential Problems Problems with the national and international economies Fiscal difficulties at both the state and national levels Fiscal cliff partially dealt with, but fight over debt ceiling could cause havoc in the financial markets Loss of good paying jobs leading to greater income inequality
30 Occupations with the most projected job openings ( ) Title Median Income Title Median Income Retail Salespersons $20,930 Registered Nurses $80,734 Waiters and Waitresses $18,927 Office Clerks $29,516 Cashiers $19,202 General and Operations Managers Customer Service Representatives Food Preparation and Serving $106,866 $35,648 Counter Attendants $19,570 $19,168 Personal and Home Care Aides $21,195 Source: Employment Development Department
31 Employment Investment and Hiring Consumer Confidence Consumer Spending
32 It s tough to make predictions, especially about the future. Yogi Berra
33 2013 San Diego Economic Outlook 29 th Annual Economic Roundtable Marney Cox Chief Economist San Diego Association of Governments January 25, 2013
34 US The Problem Slow Economic Growth Gross Domestic Product Trillion$ Annual Gap Potential GDP Actual GDP
35 US Solutions Fiscal & Monetary Policy Federal Government Revenue & Expenditures Expenditures $1.1 Trillion Deficit Excess Bank Reserves Loanable Funds $1.5 Trillion 10 Yr. Treasury & FF Rate FF Rate 10 Year T- Rate Revenues
36 US Results Below Trend Performance Jobs Gap-Trend VS Actual Expansion 132% Begins July 2009 Debt / Income Ratio 66% - 8% - 7.1M Jobs Income Gap-Trend VS Actual Expansion Begins July % - 3% -9.0% 1% 40 Months 40 Months
37 Then It s the Economy, Stupid Now It s the Labor Market
38 US Employment-Population Ratio 42% of Adult Population not Employed 4 ppt Drop
39 Labor Force Challenges STRUCTURAL-skill mismatches INCENTIVES-social program expansions
40 Outlook for San Diego
41 SD Payroll Jobs Change Y-O-Y by Quarter ,000 60,000 40,000 20, ,000-40,000-60,000-80, ,000
42 SD 2011 Jobs Actual vs Estimate (EDD Non-Agricultural Employment) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10, Est 2011 Act 5, ,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
43 SD Job Change Industries -40,000-20, ,000 40,000-31,800-9,700-23,300-7,300-13,500-11,700-4,900-1,200 6,000 19,600
44 Monthly Unemployment Rates November 2011 to 2012 (YOY) 14.00% 12.00% San Diego 9.4% to 8.3% California (SA) 11.3% to 9.8% United States (SA) 8.7% to 7.7% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00%
45 SD Per Capita Income Real 2011$, % Growth over 31 years $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $
46 SD Venture Capital Funds Resources for High Tech Jobs, M$ per Year $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 23Q12 $500 $ '00 '02 '04 '06 '
47 SD Housing Permits & Prices
48 US Housing Starts-Gaining Mo SF Starts MF Starts
49 SD Taxable Sales
50 Trade with Mexico thru Otay Mesa $35,000 $30,000 Trade Value M$ $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0
51 SD Population Growth-Slow & Changing Annual Change Population, Dom & Intl Migration, Employment ,000 70,000 50,000 30,000 10,000-10,000-30,000-50,000-70, '00 '05 10 Population Domestic Migration International Migration Employment
52 2013 Outlook Summary Slow Growth, Below Trend Problem is speed not direction San Diego Job Growth 1%; U-rate 7.5% Home Price +5%; Trade with Mexico +6% Military cutbacks threaten SD
53 2013 San Diego Economic Outlook 29 th Annual Economic Roundtable Marney Cox Chief Economist San Diego Association of Governments January 25, 2013
54 15 Minute Break For today s presentations, the County of San Diego Fact Sheet, other important information and resources, please visit: Today s event will be replayed on the County Television Network. For dates, time, and channels, please visit: Sponsored by: County of San Diego
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