Economic Update and Outlook
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1 1 Economic Update and Outlook NAIOP Vancouver Chapter Breakfast Seminar Thursday, November 17, 2011 Helmut Pastrick Chief Economist Central 1 Credit Union
2 2 Outline: Global and U.S. economies Canadian economy and forecasts B.C. and Vancouver economic conditions and trends Forecast and summary
3 Heightened market concerns on sovereign debt notably Greece, Italy problematic 3 10-year Govt. Bond Yields, Selected European Economies Per cent /4/10 8/9/10 3/14/11 10/14/11 Source: Bloomberg. Latest: 11/16/2011 Greece Portugal Ireland Italy Spain Germany
4 4 Higher financing needs in Italy, Spain, and others during Gross Financing Needs, Selected European Economies Per cent of GDP Greece Italy Belgium Portugal Spain Ireland Source: IMF Fiscal Monitor Sept
5 5 Global economic slowdown underway Balance of opinion (%) Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index 30 Source: JP Morgan, Markit. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Oct-11
6 Emerging and developing economies lead recovery, industrialized economies lag 6 World Industrial Production, Selected Economies 2008= China Developing World OECD 80 Source: World Bank. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Aug-11
7 7 Government employment dropping, private sector expanding U.S. Private and Government Employment Trends 2007= Census hires Private Government 92 Jan-07 Source: U.S. BLS, C1CU. Note: Seasonally adjusted Latest: Oct-11
8 Current U.S. economic recovery tracking close to past weak employment recoveries Recoveries in U.S. Total Payroll Employment Cycle trough= Average Current Jobless Months from Trough = 0 Source: Central 1 Credit Union. Latest current: Oct-2011
9 Current U.S. economic recovery tracking close to past weak employment recoveries Recoveries in U.S. Private Payroll Employment Cycle trough= Average Current Jobless Months from Trough = 0 Source: Central 1 Credit Union. Latest current: Oct-2011
10 10 U.S. economy expanded in October 2007= U.S. Industrial Production 80 Jan-07 Source: U.S. Federal Reserve. Note: Seasonally adjusted Latest: Oct-11
11 11 ECRI issues recession call for U.S. economy 1992= U.S. Weekly Leading Economic Indicator Jan Feb Apr May Jul-11 Source: Economic Cycle Research Institute. Latest: 4-Nov-11
12 No recession forecast by economists, more sub-par growth in Percentage change at annual rate in real GDP 5 U.S. Economic Growth 0-5 High Median Low Actual Forecast -10 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Source: U.S. BEA, WSJ November 2011 Survey. Latest actual: Q3-11
13 13 U.S. economy to grow above 3% after 2013 Per cent change in real GDP U.S. Long-term Economic Growth Actual Forecast Source: U.S. BEA, Consensus Forecasts. Latest actual: 2010
14 14 Canadian economy rebounds from May's temporary decline, above trend growth in July and August Dollars - trillions chained Canada Gross Domestic Product, All Industries 1.16 Source: Statistics Canada. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. Latest: Aug-11
15 October employment down 54k, reversing most of 61k gain in September 15 Labour Market, Canada Persons - millions Per cent of labour force Employment U. Rate Source: Statistics Canada. Latest: Oct-11
16 16 Temporary surge in headline CPI and core inflation Per cent change year-over-year 4 3 Inflation Measures, Canada CPI Core CPI -1-2 Source: Statistics Canada. Latest: Sep-11
17 17 Canada's growth to slow, no sign of recession 1992= Leading Economic Indicator, Canada 210 Source: Statistics Canada. Latest: Sep-11
18 18 GDP to rebound in Q3-2011, slow into 2012 and gain momentum in second half Percentage change at annual rate in real GDP 6 Canada's Economic Growth Actual Forecast -9 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Consensus BoC C1CU Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, C1CU. Latest actual: Q2-11
19 19 Low interest rates in 2012, Bank of Canada on hold until early 2013 Interest Rate Forecasts, Quarterly Per cent 8 6 Actual Forecast 5y mortgage Prime 4 5y GIC 2 Target 0 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Source: Bank of Canada, C1CU. Note: Averages. Latest actual: Q3-11
20 20 Mixed views on Canadian dollar near term, higher later in 2012 Exchange Rate Forecasts, Canada USD per CAD Actual Forecast 0.70 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 C1CU BMO CIBC RBC Scotia TD Source: Bank of Canada, C1CU survey. Latest actual: Q3-11
21 21 Population growth slowing, large downshift in B.C. Per cent change at annual rate 2.0 B.C. Population Growth, Quarterly Q1-03 Q1-05 Q1-07 Q1-09 Q1-11 Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU. Latest: Q2-11
22 One-off drop in net international migration, interprovincial migration turns negative 22 Persons - thousands B.C. Net Migration by Type, Quarterly 10 5 Net international Net interprovincial 0-5 Q1-03 Q1-05 Q1-07 Q1-09 Q1-11 Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Q2-11
23 Weak job growth in 2011, September job spike an outlier 23 B.C. Labour Market, Monthly Persons - millions Per cent of labour force Employment (L) U. rate (R) Source: Statistics Canada. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Oct-11
24 Vancouver employment drives provincial gains, unlikely result in September (+44k) = Employment Trends, Vancouver CMA and Rest of B.C Vancouver Rest 95 Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Oct-11
25 25 Office Employment Proxy: Vancouver rising, Abbotsford not Persons - thousands Metro Vancouver 295 Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU. Persons - thousands Abbotsford CMA 13 Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Oct
26 Retail & Wholesale Trade Employment: Declining trend in Vancouver 26 Persons - thousands Metro Vancouver 170 Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU. Persons - thousands Abbotsford CMA 12 Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Oct
27 Business Incorporations: Mild revival from recession lows 27 Greater Vancouver RD Fraser Valley RD Thousands Number Actual Trend Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU. 60 Actual Trend 40 Latest: Aug-11
28 28 Large gain in September, previously exports posting moderate gains Dollars - billions B.C. International Merchandise Exports Current $ 2002 $ Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Sep-11
29 29 Lower international tourist activity Persons - thousands B.C. International Tourist Entries 300 Source: Statistics Canada. Note: Seasonally adjusted Latest: Aug-11
30 Little growth in retail activity since early Dollars - billions B.C. Retail Sales Current $ 2002 $ Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Aug-11
31 Metro Vancouver retail sales up less than 1% this year 31 Dollars - billions 2.4 Metro Vancouver Retail Sales Current $ 2002 $ 1.8 Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Aug-11
32 32 Metro Vancouver Non-residential Building Construction Investment Spending Dollars - millions Private Current $ 2002 $ 200 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Source: Statistics Canada. Dollars - millions Public Current $ 2002 $ 100 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Q3
33 Abbotsford CMA Non-residential Building Construction Investment Spending 33 Dollars - millions Private Current $ 2002 $ 0 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Source: Statistics Canada. Dollars - millions Public Current $ 2002 $ 0 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Q3
34 Recent housing sales fairly stable at moderate levels 34 Units - thousands MLS Residential Sales, Lower Mainland 1 Source: REBGV. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Oct-11
35 Lower Mainland Housing Prices: Average sales price can mis-represent underlying price trend 35 Dollars - thousands MLS Average Sale Price 450 Source: REBGV. Latest: Oct = Housing Price Index 200 Note: Seasonally adjusted.
36 36 Housing market supply-demand indicator points to further price easing MLS Residential Sales-to-active Listings Ratios by REB Per cent GV FV Source: REBGV, C1CU. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Oct-11
37 37 Moderate growth in 2012 B.C. Economic Outlook Indicator f 2012f Real GDP, % change Nominal GDP, % change Personal income, % change Employment, % change Unemployment rate, % Corporate profits, % change Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU forecast.
38 38 Housing market holds up, modest gains in 2012 B.C. Economic and Housing Outlook Indicator f 2012f Population growth, % change CPI, % change Retail sales, % change Housing sales*, % change Housing prices*, % change Housing starts, % change Source: Statistics Canada, CREA, CMHC, C1CU forecast. * MLS residential
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