U.S. Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook

Transcription

1 U.S. Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook December 211 Economic Policy Division

2 Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate

3 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 197 to Q3 211 Real GDP Trillion 2 Dollars Log Scale $14.- $11.- $9.4- $7.7- $6.3- $.2- Actual Potential $ Potential GDP estimated by Congressional Budget Office

4 Comparing Recessions GDP Loss (Peak to Trough) Duration of Recession GDP Growth in the following year GDP Growth in the following 2 years Average monthly payroll employment growth in year following trough (thous.) Average monthly payroll employment growth in 2 years following trough (thous.) Trough May 194 (II). (%) (%) 1 (months) 7.9 (%) April 198 (II) February 1961 (I) November 197 (IV) March 197 (I) November 1982 (IV) March 1991(I) November 21 (IV) June 29 (II) N/A Months from end of recession until we reached prior employment peak

5 Personal Consumption Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Percent Change Real Disposable Income Per Capita Trillion $ 7 6 Household Wealth

6 Household Balance Sheet Trillion $ 6 Household Assets 4 3 Nonfinancial Assets Financial Assets Percent of Disposable Personal Income 1 Trillion $ Household Liabilities Consumer Debt Service

7 Net National Savings % of GDP 8% Net Savings Rate 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% % of GDP 9% Savings Components 6% 3% % -3% -6% -9% -12% Government Household Corporate

8 Housing Market Trends Thous. of Units, SAAR Housing Starts Sales Price, Thous. $ Median Home Prices Existing Homes New Homes Thous. of Units, SAAR 12 7 New Home Sales (left axis) Existing Home Sales (right axis) Thous. of Units, SAAR 7 3 Home Sales New Homes (left axis) Existing Homes (right axis) Housing Inventory

9 Percent Net Percentage of Banks Tightening Credit Standards on Residential Loans Housing Market Trends Housing Affordability Index Percent, SA Mortgage Delinquency Rates Conventional Subprime: Total Past Due Conventional Prime: Total Past Due Percent, SA Mortgage Foreclosure Rates All Loans Conventional Subprime

10 Percent Change, Annual Rate Investment Real Private Investment in Equipment & Software Percent Change, Annual Rate Real Private Investment - Structures Billion Chained 2$, Annual Rate Real Change in Private Inventories

11 Percent Change, Annual Rate Industrial Production Investment Indicators SAAR, Billion $ 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 Corporate Profits 1,2 1, Purchasing Managers Index Inventory-to-Sales Ratio: Total Business

12 Investment Sub-Indicators SA, 2= ATA Truck Tonnage Index month moving average; thous. tons 1,4 9 Boxboard Production month moving average, thousands Intermodal Rail Carloadings thous, 6-month moving average 6 4 Total Rail Carloadings

13 SAAR, Bil. Chn. 2$ U.S. Trade Real Net Exports of Goods and Services Billions $, YTD Trade Flows of Top Trading Partners EU Canada China Mexico Japan Exports Imports

14 Exchange Rate (Major Currencies/US$) Exchange Rates U.S. Nominal Trade Weighted Exchange Rate US$/Euro; US$/Pound; US$/1Yen Euro UK Japan

15 Percent Change, Annual Rate Mexico Real GDP Growth Canada Percent Change, Year to Year China India Japan Percent Change, Annual Rate 3. Spain Portugal 2. Italy Ireland 1. Greece Percent Change, Annual Rate UK -1. France -1. Germany Source: Oxford Economics

16 Percent Change, Year to Year Canada Mexico Inflation (Consumer Price Index) Percent Change, Year to Year China India Japan Percent Change, Year to Year 1 - Spain Portugal Italy Ireland -1 Greece Source: Oxford Economics Percent Change, Year to Year UK France Germany

17 Unemployment Rates Percent Percent Canada Mexico 2 China India Japan Percent 2 Spain Portugal 2 Italy Ireland 1 Greece Percent UK 2 France Germany Source: Oxford Economics

18 Percent Canada Mexico Percent Spain Italy Greece Source: Oxford Economics Portugal Ireland Interest Rates (1 Year Government Bonds) Percent China India Japan Percent UK France Germany

19 Percent Change 1 12 Real GDP Growth of Top Trading Partners World EU Canada China Mexico Japan Germany UK S. Korea Brazil Taiwan France NLD Saudi Arabia India Ven Singapore Source: Oxford Economics, USCC Forecast

20 Billions $ U.S. Bank Exposure to Europe Public Sector Banks Non-bank Private Sector Derivatives and Other Exposures 2 1 France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Portugal Spain Source: Bank for International Settlements

21 Billions $ 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, European Bank Exposure to Periphery Greece Ireland Italy Portugal Spain All European Banks Belgium France Germany Switzerland UK Source: Bank for International Settlements

22 Million Total Nonfarm Jobs Labor Market Million 1 14 Household Employment SA, Thousands, 4-week Moving Average Initial Unemployment Claims Percent Unemployment Rate November: 8.6 percent

23 Thousands Marginally Attached Discouraged Workers Labor Market Thousands 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Part-time for Economic Reasons SA, percent Civilian Participation Rate Median Weeks Unemployed, SA Duration of Unemployment

24 Percent Change, 3-Month Annualized Rate Inflation Consumer Price Index Percent Change, 3-Month Annualized Rate Core Consumer Price Index

25 $/gallon $. $4. $3. $2. $1. Oil, Gas, and Diesel Prices $/barrel $1. $1. $. $ Source: EIA, Dept of Energy Gas Diesel WTI (Right Axis) $ = Spot Market Price Index: All Commodities = Spot Market Price Index: Metals

26 Interest Rates & Spreads Percent Year Treasury Note Yield Month Treasury Note Yield Percent TED Spread 3-Month LIBOR Minus 3- Month Treasury Risk Spread Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield Minus Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield

27 Fed Policy Billions $ 3, 2, Bank Assets and Liabilities 2, 1, 1, 28 Jan Apr. July Oct. 29 Jan Apr Jul Oct 21 Jan Apr Jul Oct 211 Jan Apr Jul Oct Excess Required Federal Reserve Assets Money Supply (M1)

28 Domestic Bank Lending Billions $ C&I Loans at Commercial Banks Large Small Billions $ 1,8 1,3 8 3 Consumer Credit Outstanding Revolving Nonrevolving Billions $ Percent Home Equity Loans Delinquency Rates at Commercial Banks C&I Loans Credit Cards Residential Real Estate Commercial Real Estate Large Small

29 CBO s Baseline (August 211) Budget Deficit Billions $ - -1, -1, -2, Deficit to GDP Percent of GDP

30 Government Debt (CBO s Baseline August 211) Billions $ 2, Debt 1, Percent of GDP Debt to GDP

31 Government Revenues and Outlays (% of GDP) 3 2 Forecast Revenues (%GDP) Outlays (%GDP) Source: CBO Baseline (August 211)