Monthly Economic Indicators And Charts

Transcription

1 Monthly Economic Indicators And Charts June Richard F. Moody- Chief Economist Steve Pfitzer Investor Relations Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized sources believed to be reliable. This information has not been verified by us, and we do not make any representations about accuracy, completeness or reliability. Any opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.

2 Monthly Highlights / Commentary U.S. Growth Story Hasn t Changed The BEA s second estimate puts Q real GDP growth at an annualized rate of. percent, down slightly from the initial estimate of. percent. Q growth in any given year is prone to downward bias due to residual seasonality in the component data, and this year s soft Q print does not alter our expectations for real GDP growth of around. percent for as a whole, with Q real GDP growth at present tracking at just under. percent (annualized). Job growth rebounded in May, with total nonfarm payrolls rising by, jobs while prior estimates of job growth in March and April were revised modestly higher. Slightly lower labor force participation pushed the unemployment rate down to. percent. The broader U measure, which accounts for both unemployment and underemployment, fell to 7. percent, the lowest since May. Average hourly earnings were up.7 percent year-on-year, in line with the pace seen over the past six months. The ISM Manufacturing Index rose to.7 percent in May, the st consecutive month in which the index has been above the. percent break between contraction and expansion. The details of the ISM data show a manufacturing sector struggling to keep pace with robust growth in demand, both foreign and domestic, as backlogs of unfilled orders continue to grow. Trade policy, however, looms as a downside risk to the U.S. manufacturing sector. In short, despite considerable noise in the headlines and volatility in financial markets, the U.S. growth story has not changed. With no signs of inflation breaking out to the upside, the FOMC should remain on a course of gradual Fed funds rate hikes. A -basis point increase in the Fed funds rate target range is a virtual lock at the June - FOMC meeting. We expect the revised dot plot to be issued in conjunction with the June FOMC meeting to signal a total of three funds rate hikes for, though that could change later in the year if warranted, i.e., if retail level inflation does accelerate faster than anticipated.

3 ECONOMIC/FINANCIAL DATA HIGHLIGHTS June Indicator: Last Observation: Reported As: Value: % Change Year Ago, or Year Ago Value: Real GDP Q ( nd est.) Annualized % change.%.% Payroll Employment May Monthly change, thousands of jobs +.% Private Sector Employment May Monthly change, thousands of jobs +.9% Unemployment Rate May % of labor force.%.% U Unemployment/Underemployment May % of labor force 7.%.% Unemployed 7 Weeks or More May Millions of people.9. Aggregate Private Sector Earnings May Monthly % change.%.9% Real Personal Disposable Income April Monthly % change.9%.9% Real Personal Disposable Income ex Transfers April Monthly % change.%.9% Real Personal Consumption Expenditures April Monthly % change.%.9% Personal Savings Rate April % of disposable personal income.%.7% Consumer Price Index Total April Monthly % change.%.% Consumer Price Index Core April Monthly % change.9%.% Producer Price Index Final Demand April Monthly % change.9%.7% Producer Price Index Core Final Demand April Monthly % change.7%.% Single Family Housing Permits April Seasonally adjusted annual rate 9, 79, Multi Family Housing Permits April Seasonally adjusted annual rate 9, 9, Single Family Housing Starts April Seasonally adjusted annual rate 9,, Multi Family Housing Starts April Seasonally adjusted annual rate 9,, Industrial Production April Monthly % change.7%.% ISM Manufacturing Index May Index value, %.7%.% ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index May Index value, %.7% 9.% ISM Non Manufacturing Index May Index value, %.% 7.% ISM Non Manufacturing New Orders Index May Index Value, %.% 7.7% Federal Funds Rate Target Range Mid Point June, Percent.%.7% One Month LIBOR Rate June, Percent.%.% Month U.S. Treasury Bill Yield June, Percent.9%.9% Year U.S. Treasury Note Yield June, Percent.%.% Year U.S. Treasury Note Yield June, Percent.9%.% Dollar Euro Exchange Rate June, Euros per U.S. dollar.79.9 Dollar Yen Exchange Rate June, Yen per U.S. dollar 9..9 Federal Reserve Broad U.S. Dollar Index June, Index value, 997 =.9.7

4 Real GDP Annualized Percentage Change percentage points Contribution To Real GDP Growth PCE Business Fixed Inv. Res. Fixed Inv. Inventories Net Exports Government Q ' Q '7 Q '7 Q '7 Q '7 Q ' Total Payroll Employment monthly change, seasonally adjusted, thousands (L) -month change, not seasonally adjusted, millions (R) U (unemployment/underemployment) U (unemployment) Unemployment Rate, % 7 9 7

5 7 Civilian Labor Force labor force participation rate (%) employment-to-population ratio, % 7 Long-Term Unemployed Unemployed for 7 Weeks or Longer, Millions of People Consumers Assessment of Labor Market Conditions Spread between jobs plentiful and "jobs hard to get", inverse scale (L) Unemployment rate, % (R) Private Sector Hiring Diffusion Index Net % of private sector industries hiring compared to: one month ago six months ago month moving averages

6 - - - Total Real Disposable Personal Income % change year ago Excluding transfers Personal Spending, Saving Personal consumption expenditures, % change year ago Personal saving rate, % of disposable personal income Real Consumer Spending % change year ago durable goods nondurable goods services Total Household Debt % of disposable personal income excluding transfer payments % of disposable personal income

7 .. Household Financial Obligations Ratio % of disposable income Consumer Confidence Index 9 = Present Conditions Expectations Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization All Sectors Capacity utilization rate, % (R) Industrial production, % change year ago (L) Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization Manufacturing Sector Capacity utilization rate, % (R) Industrial production, % change year ago (L)

8 7 ISM Index diffusion index, net percentage Manufacturing Index Non-Manufacturing Index Core Capital Goods Orders -month moving averages 7 above. % indicates expansion; below.% indicates contraction % change year ago (L) $ billion (R) ,, Housing Permits ( s of units) not seasonally adjusted, -month moving sum Single Family (L) Multi-Family (R),, Housing Starts ( s of units) not seasonally adjusted, -month moving sum Single Family (L) Multi-Family (R),,,,,,

9 7, 7,,,,,,, Home Sales ( s of units) not seasonally adjusted, -month moving sum Existing Homes (L) New Homes (R), 7 9 7,,,, 9 7,,,,,,,,,,,, Foreclosure Starts United States number of loans, Total Judicial States Non-Judicial States 7 9 7, Foreclosure Starts Regions Footprint number of loans Index of House Prices % change year ago,, FHFA - Purchase Only Core Logic 7,,,, - 7, -,, Total Judicial States Non-Judicial States

10 Median Home Prices $ thousands, -month moving average,, Existing Home Inventories Units available for sale, ths (L) Months Supply (R) 7 New Homes Existing Homes,,,, 7, 7 9 7, New Home Inventories Units available for sale, ths (L) Months Supply (R) CoreLogic Loan Performance Data United States REO Inventory, ths (L) 9+day delinquency rate, % (R)

11 Survey of Senior Lending Officers C&I Loans net % of banks reporting rising loan demand from: large/medium firms small firms Survey of Senior Lending Officers Prime Mortgages net % of banks reporting: stronger loan demand tighter lending standards Bank Charge-Off Rates By Loan Type, % HELOC Mortgage Credit Cards Other Consumer Loans Total Producer Price Index % change year ago Core

12 - Consumer Price Index % change year ago Total Core WTI Crude Oil, Retail Gasoline Prices 9 7 WTI, $ per bbl (L) gasoline, $ per gallon (R) Selected Interest Rates, % weekly data -year Treasury AAA Corporate Bond -year Fixed Rate Mortgage Spread Between Yields On -year and -year Treasury Notes. weekly data

13 TED Spread spread between -month LIBOR and -month T-bill, % Japanese Yen per U.S. Dollar weekly data Chinese Yuan per U.S. Dollar weekly data. Euros per U.S. Dollar weekly data