ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
|
|
- Henry Washington
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS FEDERAL RESERVE BALANCE SHEET Assets and Liabilities 2-3 REAL ESTATE Construction Spending 4 CoreLogic Home Price Index 5 Mortgage Rates and Applications 6-7 CONSUMER BEHAVIOR Income, Spending, and Light Vehicle Sales 8-9 Consumer Confidence: Expectations 1 LABOR MARKETS Nonfarm Payroll Employment and Benchmark Revisions Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates 13 MANUFACTURING ISM Purchasing Managers Index 14 TREASURY YIELDS 15 BREAKEVEN INFLATION RATES 16 FEBRUARY 6, 213
2 FEDERAL RESERVE BALANCE SHEET Between January 23 and January 3, the Federal Reserve s balance sheet decreased by $2.6 billion. The overall size of the balance sheet was essentially unchanged at $3.1 trillion. 3, 2,7 2,4 2,1 1,8 1,5 1, Federal Reserve Assets (Uses of Funds) $ billions Currency Swaps Agency Debt & MBS Lending to Nonbank Credit Markets Short-Term lending to Financials Other Treasuries Dec-7 Jun-8 Dec-8 Jun-9 Dec-9 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Source: Federal Reserve Board through January 3, 213 ADDITIONAL DETAIL Treasuries increased by $13.4 billion while MBS and agency debt decreased by $17.4 billion. Note that agency debt and MBS typically increase mid-month as a result of settlements and decline the week after as a result of prepayments. More detail is available on the New York Fed s website. Since mid-august 212, decreased use of swap lines by foreign central banks has caused the balance sheet to contract by $22 billion. According to the New York Fed s tentative outright Treasury operation schedule, the desk plans to purchase approximately $44 billion in Treasury securities over the month of February. This amount is approximately $1 billion less than the stated pace of $45 billion per month, given that purchases conducted in January exceeded the target by approximately $1 billion. 2
3 FEDERAL RESERVE BALANCE SHEET Between January 23 and January 3, bank reserve balances with the Federal Reserve increased by $48.7 billion, while Treasury deposits with the Federal Reserve decreased by $9.9 billion. As of January 3, 213, bank reserves held at the Federal Reserve were $1.64 trillion. 3, 2,7 2,4 2,1 1,8 1,5 1, Treasury SFP Other Federal Reserve Liabilities (Sources of Funds) $ billions Banks Reserve Balances Currency in Circulation Dec-7 Jun-8 Dec-8 Jun-9 Dec-9 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Source: Federal Reserve Board SFP=Supplemental Financing Program through January 3, 213 ADDITIONAL DETAIL Reverse repurchase agreements with foreign officials and international accounts increased by $8.5 billion. Other nonreserve deposits, which include balances of international and multilateral organizations with accounts at the New York Fed, such as the International Monetary Fund, United Nations, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (World Bank); the special checking account of the ESF (where deposits from monetizing SDRs would be placed); and balances of a few U.S. government agencies (such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) decreased by $48.2 billion. 3
4 REAL ESTATE The U.S. Census Bureau reported that total construction spending and nonresidential construction spending growth continued to decelerate on a year-over-year basis while residential construction spending growth remained robust in December U.S. Construction Spending year-over-year percent change through December 212 Total Nonresidential Residential Source: U.S. Census Bureau December 212 Construction Spending Put in Place Billions, SAAR M/M Y/Y Total Total Private Total Public Total Nonresidential Private Nonresidential Public Nonresidential Total Residential Private Residential % 2.% -1.4%.3% 1.8% -1.4% 2.1% 2.2% 7.8% 15.% -5.6% 1.2% 7.6% -5.3% 22.3% 23.6% 4
5 REAL ESTATE The October CoreLogic home price indexes continued to improve in December on a year-over-year basis. The CoreLogic home price index including distressed properties increased 8.3 percent compared with a year earlier while the home price index, excluding distressed properties, increased 7.5 percent U.S. CoreLogic Home Price Index indexed, January 2 = 1 HPI excluding distressed properties HPI including distressed properties through December 212 Source: CoreLogic 5
6 REAL ESTATE According to Freddie Mac s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the average rate for a 3-year fixed rate mortgage increased 11 basis points (bps) over the week ending January 31, to 3.53 percent. This is the first week the average 3-year fixed-rate mortgage rate has been above 3.5 percent since September 13, 212. The average rate for a 15- year fixed-rate mortgage increased 1 bps to 2.81 percent over the week ending January Mortgage Rates percent 15-Year Fixed: Year Fixed: Sources: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey through January 31, 213 6
7 REAL ESTATE According to the Mortgage Bankers Association s Weekly Applications Survey, mortgage loan applications for refinancing increased 4 percent over the week ending February 1. Applications for purchase increased 2 percent over the same period and are at their highest level since the week ending May 7, Mortgage Loan Applications Volume Index March 16, 199 = 1 Refinances Purchases Source: Mortgage Bankers Association through February 1, 213 7
8 CONSUMER BEHAVIOR Personal income rose sharply in December. According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the large jump in December was the result of accelerated bonus payments and accelerated dividend payments made in anticipation of tax law changes. Real personal disposal income grew 2.8 percent in December. Real consumer spending increased.2 percent in December. Durable goods grew 1.3 percent over the month, nondurables grew.3 percent, and spending on services was essentially unchanged Source: BEA Real Personal Consumption Expenditures seasonally adjusted, year-over-year percent change Real PCE (right axis): 2.24% Real Nondurable Goods: 1.46% Real Services: 1.33% Real Durable Goods (right axis): 9.67% Real Personal Disposable Income(right axis): 5.61% through December ADDITIONAL DETAIL Real disposable personal income is personal income minus taxes and adjusted for inflation. 8
9 CONSUMER BEHAVIOR Light vehicles sales decreased slightly in January, falling at a -.6 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15.3 million units Light Vehicle Sales millions of units, SAAR Sales of domestic vehicles are almost back to prerecession levels. Sales of domestic light vehicles are currently 2 percent below levels in November 27 while sales of imported light vehicles are 13 percent below Total Domestic Imported through January 213 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis ADDITIONAL DETAIL Note: Light vehicle sales include all cars and light trucks up to 14, pounds. Domestic sales include autos produced in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. 9
10 CONSUMER BEHAVIOR Final measures of consumer expectations as measured by the University of Michigan improved from the preliminary mid-month reading (not shown), suggesting any concern from consumers might have been short-lived. The mid-month reading from the Conference Board also indicated a drop, mostly the result of changes in income expectations. The components measuring the current situation in both surveys have improved since the summer of 211 but remain below prerecession levels Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Expectations relative to level in June 27 University Of Michigan - Expectations (NSA) Conference Board Consumer Confidence - Expectations(SA) through January 213 Sources: The Conference Board, Reuters/University of Michigan, Bloomberg ADDITIONAL DETAIL The expectations component of University of Michigan survey increased 2.8 points in January, following a 13.9 point drop in December and a 1.3 point drop in November. The expectations component of the Conference Board survey declined 8.6 points in the mid-january reading, following a 12.8 point drop in December and a 3.1 point drop in November. The future components of both the Conference Board and Reuters/University of Michigan survey utilize fairly similar underlying questions. 1
11 LABOR MARKETS The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported last Friday that payrolls rose by 157, in January 213. The BLS also revised payrolls upward for the last few months of 212, particularly for November and December Contributions to Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment thousands, SA 157 Last year, employment growth averaged 181, per month, higher than the roughly 153, per month originally estimated, the result of the BLS s usual monthly revisions for November and December and the annual benchmark revision, which raised 1 months payroll numbers over the year. More detail on the benchmark revision is on the next page Other Services & Gov Leisure & Hosp Professional & Business Retail Trade Goods Producing Total nonfarm Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics through January 213 ADDITIONAL DETAIL In January, the most significant payroll gains were seen in retail trade (up 33,), construction (up 28,), and health care (up 23,). In the chart above, construction takes up the vast majority of the gain in Goods Producing industries; manufacturing, the other large component of the category, gained just 4, payrolls in January, mostly in the production of motor vehicles and parts. 11
12 LABOR MARKETS Annually, the BLS releases its benchmark revision. With this release, seasonally adjusted data from January 28 have been revised to include a more comprehensive count of payrolls. The chart to the right compares the pre-benchmark payroll growth estimate with post-benchmark payroll growth Monthly Difference in Payrolls, Pre- and Post- Benchmark Revision Thousands, SA, January 212-December 212 and January ADDITIONAL DETAIL -5 Pre-Benchmark Payroll Growth Estimate Post-Benchmark Payroll Growth -1 Difference (thous.) Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics See more information on the BLS s benchmarking procedures, including methodology and an explanation of why benchmarks differ from original estimates. 12
13 LABOR MARKETS The unemployment rate ticked up slightly to reach 7.9 percent in January. This followed an unemployment rate of 7.8 percent in December 212. Excluding the effects of rounding, the actual increase in the unemployment rate was less than.1 percentage point. The labor force participation rate stayed the same in January. It has remained at 63.6 percent since November 212, when it fell from 63.8 percent in October Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates percent, SA 68 Unemployment Rate (left axis) January 213 = 7.9% 67 Participation Rate (right axis) January 213 = 63.6% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics through January
14 MANUFACTURING The Institute for Supply Management s (ISM) Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of manufacturers gained 2.9 index points in January to reach 53.1, its highest point since April 212. The gains were broadly based across the index s components. The new orders index, which is seen as a leading indicator of future manufacturing activity, gained 3.6 index points to reach ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Index: 5 or greater indicates expansion, less than 5 indicates contraction; SA Purchasing Managers Index New Orders Production Employment ADDITIONAL DETAIL Source: Institute for Supply Management through January 213 Other components of the PMI that gained ground in January included production (up 1. index point to reach 53.6 points) and employment (up 2.1 index points to reach 54. points). The inventories index also surged 8. index points to reach 51. points, taking that component from contraction to expansion territory in the index. Supplies were delivered just a bit more slowly in January than in December 212, according to the index. The supplier-deliveries measure slipped just.1 index point to reach 53.6 points in January. 14
15 TREASURY YIELDS Longer-term U.S. Treasury yields are little changed since the January FOMC meeting. The 1-year note and the 3- year bond now yield about 1.98 percent and 3.19 percent, respectively December FOMC U.S. Treasury Yields daily, percent Fiscal Cliff Deal January FOMC 1..8 However, since the December 12 FOMC statement which reiterated the Committee s intention to purchase $45 billion of Treasury securities as well as $4 billion of agency MBS per month and following the fiscal cliff deal, Treasury yields have moved noticeably higher. The 3-year bond is up 3 bps, and the 1-year higher by 28 bps, since December 12; with increases of 24 bps and 22 bps, respectively, since the fiscal cliff deal Nov 8-Nov 15-Nov 22-Nov 29-Nov 6-Dec 13-Dec 2-Dec 27-Dec 3-Jan 1-Jan 17-Jan 24-Jan 31-Jan 7-Feb 1-yr (LHS) 3-yr (LHS) 5-yr (RHS) 2-yr (RHS) through February 6, 213 Source: Bloomberg 15
16 BREAKEVEN INFLATION RATE The Barclays 5-year/5-year forward breakeven inflation rate is currently at 2.89 percent, roughly stable since September 212 but getting close to the peak of readings since January Barclays 5-year/5-year forward breakeven inflation rate percent January FOMC 2.89 (Note: The breakeven inflation rate is a measure of expected inflation derived from nominal Treasury securities and their real counterparts inflationprotected TIPS securities.) Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Source: Barclays Capital through February 6,
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS LABOR MARKET Contributions to Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 2 Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rate 3 MANUFACTURING ISM Manufacturing Index 4 CONSUMERS Light Vehicle
More informationECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS FEDERAL RESERVE BALANCE SHEET Assets & Liabilities 2-3 LABOR MARKETS Southeast Payroll Employment 4 REAL ESTATE Housing Starts 5 Mortgage Rates 6 MANUFACTURING Industrial
More informationFinancial Highlights
November 16, 2011 Financial Highlights Federal Reserve Balance Sheet 1 Europe European Bond Spreads 2 Mortgage Markets Mortgage Rates 3 Mortgage Applications Consumer Credit Revolving and Nonrevolving
More informationThe President s Report to the Board of Directors
The President s Report to the Board of Directors April 4, 214 Current Economic Developments - April 4, 214 Data released since your last Directors' meeting show the economy was a bit stronger in the fourth
More informationNonfarm Payroll Employment
PRESIDENT'S REPORT TO THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF BOSTON Current Economic Developments - June 10, 2004 Data released since your last Directors' meeting show the economy continues to
More informationEconomic Highlights. ISM Purchasing Managers Index 1. Sixth District Payroll Employment by Industry 2. Contributions to Real GDP Growth 3
December 1, 2010 Economic Highlights Manufacturing ISM Purchasing Managers Index 1 Employment Sixth District Payroll Employment by Industry 2 Economic Activity Contributions to Real GDP Growth 3 Prices
More informationU.S. Economic Update and Outlook. Laurel Graefe, REIN Director Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta October 2, 2013
1 U.S. Economic Update and Outlook Laurel Graefe, REIN Director Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta October 2, 213 Following the deepest recession since the 193s, the economic recovery is well under way, though
More informationMBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Outlook
MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Outlook January 19, 2016 Presented by Joel Kan Mortgage Bankers Association Summary of the MBA Outlook 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 GDP Growth 1.9% 1.8% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% Inflation
More informationQ Economic Outlook
Q1 Economic Outlook Presented by: Craig Dismuke Chief Economic Strategist cdismuke@viningsparks.com 1/24/ Page 1 Q1 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK A. European Drama, Weak U.S. Growth, and Central Bank Intervention B.
More informationWill The Recovery Hold? By Doug Duncan Vice President and Chief Economist Fannie Mae June 17, 2010
Will The Recovery Hold? By Doug Duncan Vice President and Chief Economist Fannie Mae June 17, 2010 1 Disclaimer Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economics & Mortgage
More informationCost Cutting Has Emerged as a Focus of Lender Competitiveness
Cost Cutting Has Emerged as a Focus of Lender Competitiveness Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Published June 21, 2018 2018 Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 1 Disclaimer Opinions, analyses, estimates,
More informationECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS DURABLE GOODS Orders and Shipments for Core Capital Goods 2 REAL ESTATE Pending Home Sales Index 3 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index 4 FHFA Home Price Index 5 Sales and
More informationHouse prices in the United States were 14.1 percent
NationalEconomicTrends August How Much Have US House Prices Fallen? House prices in the United States were 11 percent lower in the first quarter of than they were a year earlier, according to a widely
More informationDecline in Economic Activity Larger Than Advance GDP Estimate February 27, 2009
Northern Trust Global Economic Research 5 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois 663 northerntrust.com Asha G. Bangalore agb3@ntrs.com Decline in Economic Activity Larger Than Advance GDP Estimate February 27,
More informationECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS HOUSING Mortgage Rates 2 Pending Home Sales 3 Home Prices 4 Construction Spending 5 Nonresidential Construction Spending 6 MANUFACTURING Purchasing Managers Index 7 New
More informationThere has been considerable discussion of the possibility
NationalEconomicTrends February Housing and the R Word There has been considerable discussion of the possibility that ongoing troubles in the housing market could push the economy into recession 1 But
More informationSharp declines in home prices, followed by a financial
NationalEconomicTrends April Household Retrenchment Sharp declines in home prices, followed by a financial crisis and a steep recession, rattled US households in Economic misfortunes have caused many to
More informationECONOMIC & REVENUE UPDATE
January 11, 2018 Summary summary The U.S. labor market gained 148,000 net new jobs in December. U.S. housing starts in November 2017 were 12.9% above their year-ago level. Consumer confidence declined
More informationEconomic Update Adrienne C. Slack March 2017
Economic Update Adrienne C. Slack March 2017 The views expressed are mine, and not necessarily those of the Atlanta Fed or the Federal Reserve System. 2 The Fed s Dual Mandate The Fed is pursuing two objectives
More informationWith the tax filing season in full swing, these summary
NationalEconomicTrends March Income Taxes: Who Pays and How Much? With the tax filing season in full swing, these summary figures may provide some perspective on the issue of who is paying federal individual
More informationThe Federal Reserve has set the target range for the federal
NationalEconomicTrends October Monetary Policy Stance: The View from Consumption Spending The Federal Reserve has set the target range for the federal funds at to 5 percent and intends to keep this near
More informationFinancial Highlights
November 3, 21 Financial Highlights Federal Reserve Balance Sheet 1 European Debt Bond Spreads 2 CDS Spreads 2 Securitization Markets CMBS Yields and Issuance 3 ABX and CMBX 4 Mortgage Rates 5 Broad Financial
More informationOn October 4, 2006, President Bush signed the
NationalEconomicTrends December Political Economy of State Homeland Security Grants On October,, President Bush signed the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Appro pri - ations Act for fiscal year 7
More informationThe relatively slow growth of employment has
NationalEconomicTrends August Please go to researchstlouisfedorg/publications/net for important information about your subscription Labor s Share The relatively slow growth of employment has been a prominent
More informationIt s Déjà Vu All Over (and Over) Again
Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Personal Consumption Expenditures (SAAR, Chn.2009$, M-o-M % Change) Q3:2009 Q4:2009 Q1:2010 Q2:2010 Q3:2010 Q4:2010
More informationNationalEconomicTrends
NationalEconomicTrends January 00 Stag-nations Economic growth in the United States has slowed substantially since the days of rapid expansion during the mid to late 1990s. According to preliminary estimates,
More informationThe U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. Economic Outlook November, Economic Club of Sheboygan George A. Kahn Vice President and Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Outlook themes Growth has rebounded following a soft first
More informationThe U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. Economic Outlook Gering/Scottsbluff Economic Forum August 23, 216 George A. Kahn Vice President and Economist The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions
More informationNational Economic Indicators. May 7, 2018
National Economic Indicators May 7, 18 Table of Contents GDP Release Date Latest Period Page Table: Real Gross Domestic Product Apr-7-18 8:31 Q1-18 Real Gross Domestic Product Apr-7-18 8:31 Q1-18 5 Decomposition
More informationU.S. Automotive Outlook
2004 FTA Revenue Estimation and Tax Research Conference September 19-22, 2004 Burlington, VT U.S. Automotive Outlook David P. Teolis Senior Economist North America Global Market & Industry Analysis Presentation
More informationECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS CONSUMERS Consumer Credit 2 HOUSING Southeast Home Sales 3 Southeast Home Prices 4 Southeast Home Inventory 5 Sales Outlook 6 EMPLOYMENT Contributions to Change in Nonfarm
More informationMichigan Economic Update
Michigan Economic Update Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Detroit Branch October 30, 2015 Paul Traub Senior Business Economist The Midwest Economy declined to -0.15 in September while Michigan s contribution
More informationEconomic Update. Air & Waste Management Association. Georgia Chapter. Michael Chriszt Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta October 4, 2013
1 Economic Update Air & Waste Management Association Georgia Chapter The views expressed here are not necessarily those of the FOMC, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, or the Federal Reserve System.
More informationThe chorus from Travis s 1947 song about the
NationalEconomicTrends December 7 What Do You Get for Sixteen Tons? You load sixteen tons, and what do you get? Another day older and deeper in debt Merle Travis The chorus from Travis s 197 song about
More informationCOMPTROLLER LEMBO REPORTS EARLY INDICATIONS THAT STATE COULD END FISCAL YEAR 2019 IN SURPLUS
COMPTROLLER LEMBO REPORTS EARLY INDICATIONS THAT STATE COULD END FISCAL YEAR 2019 IN SURPLUS Comptroller Kevin Lembo today said that there are reasons for cautious optimism that the state could end Fiscal
More informationIndividual households and firms, as well as local, state,
NationalEconomicTrends February 9 How Accu Are Forecasts in a Recession? Individual households and firms, as well as local, state, and federal governments, make economic decisions based on their view of
More informationSingle-family home sales and construction are not expected to regain 2005 peaks
Single-family home sales and construction are not expected to regain 25 peaks Millions of units 8. 7. 6. 5. Housing starts (right axis) 4. Home sales (left axis) 3. 2. 1. 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215
More informationEconomic Growth Expected to Slow and Housing to Stabilize in 2019
Consumer Confidence Expectations in the Next Six Months (%) Economic Developments December 218 Economic Growth Expected to Slow and Housing to Stabilize in 219 The U.S. economy is expected to grow 2.6
More informationEconomic Indicators For Manufacturing Executives
Economic Indicators For Manufacturing Executives Valuable Data for a Complex World Presented by: Cliff Waldman Chief Economist, MAPI Foundation cwaldman@mapi.net Today s Presentation The Value of Economic
More informationSince the financial crisis began in mid-2007, media
NationalEconomicTrends August Commercial Bank Lending Data during the Crisis: Handle with Care Since the financial crisis began in mid-7, media sources and academics alike have scrutinized data from the
More informationReal GDP Growth Rebounds 4.0% in 2Q14
Economic Analysis Real GDP Growth Rebounds 4.% in 2Q14 Kim Fraser Chase The advance estimate for 2Q14 GDP growth was slightly higher than expected, coming in at 4.% on a QoQ seasonally-adjusted annualized
More informationData current as of: April 4, % 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 250, , , ,000 50, , , , , ,000
Forecast current as of: January 213 Economic Indicators U.S. unemployment decreased to 7.7% in February from 7.9% last month, as nonfarm payroll employment increased by 236,. In the previous 3 months,
More informationFull-Year Growth Downgraded Again
Economic Developments - May 2016 Full-Year Growth Downgraded Again The economy posted the weakest growth rate in two years of 0.5 percent annualized in the first quarter versus our expectation of 1.2 percent.
More informationFinancial Highlights
November 17, 2010 Financial Highlights Federal Reserve Balance Sheet 1 Consumer Credit Consumer Credit: Revolving and Nonrevolving 2 ABS Yields and Issuance 3 Corporate Bonds Yield Spreads and Bond Issuance
More informationMBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan
MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan Economy & Labor Markets Strong Enough, First Rate Hike Expected in December MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: November 2015 This month s outlook largely mirrors
More informationConsumer Price Index, Jobless Claims, Housing Starts Each of These Reports Have Favorable Aspects to Note
Consumer Price Index, Jobless Claims, Housing Starts Each of These Reports Have Favorable Aspects to Note January 19, Asha G. Bangalore agb3@ntrs.com The Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady in December,
More information- US LEI & CEI - Yardeni Research, Inc.
- US LEI & CEI - 11 1 Figure. LEADING & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS (=, ratio scale) 11 1 Leading Economic Indicators recovering rapidly. Coincident Economic Indicators recovering slowly. 9 9 9 9 7
More informationThe Office of Economic Policy HOUSING DASHBOARD. March 16, 2016
The Office of Economic Policy HOUSING DASHBOARD March 16, 216 Recent housing market indicators suggest that housing activity continues to strengthen. Solid residential investment in 215Q4 contributed.3
More informationModerating Growth Expected in the Second Half; Housing Supply Still Lagging
Corporate Profits with IVA and CCAdj (SAAR, $, Year-over-Year % Change) Nominal Broad Trade-Weighted Exchange Value of the US$ Economic Developments July 2017 Moderating Growth Expected in the Second Half;
More informationNationalEconomicTrends
NationalEconomicTrends August 1999 Historical CPI Inflation Under Current Calculation Methods During the 1990s, a much-discussed topic among policymakers and in financial markets has been the possibility
More informationEconomic Outlook. Presented to IPMA Executive Seminar. Steve Lerch Chief Economist & Executive Director. September 25, 2012 Chelan, Washington
Presented to IPMA Executive Seminar Steve Lerch Chief Economist & Executive Director Chelan, Washington WASHINGTON STATE ECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST COUNCIL Summary The updated economic forecast is very
More informationIn 2010, the first of the Baby Boom generation will
NationalEconomicTrends September 7 Can Social Security Survive the Baby Boomers? In 1, the first of the Baby Boom generation will reach age Many will choose to begin what they hope will be a long and financially
More informationThe US Economic Outlook (with a Fed twist)
The US Economic Outlook (with a Fed twist) Presentation prepared for the Economic Outlook Conference 2011 January 13, 2011 Chapter 1: Why the FOMC went with QE2, an interpretive dance by David Altig, who
More informationA View from the Fed: Slouching toward 2016
A View from the Fed: Slouching toward 2016 28 th Annual Economic Outlook Conference, University of Alabama Culverhouse College of Commerce Montgomery, AL January 14, 2016 The views expressed are those
More informationData current as of: August 5, ,200,000 1,000, , , , , , , , , , , ,000
Forecast Version: Spring 216 Economic Indicators The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a total nonfarm payroll employment increase of 287, in June with the unemployment rate rising.2% to 4.9%. The jobs
More informationBoost from Fiscal Policy to Fade in 2019
Real PCE: Motor Vehicles & Parts (SAAR, 29$, Annualized % Change) Regular Grade, Avg Dollars per Gallon Economic Developments May 28 Boost from Fiscal Policy to Fade in 29 First quarter economic growth
More informationWill the Real Private Nonfarm Payrolls Please Stand Up?
Northern Trust Global Economic Research 50 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois 603 northerntrust.com Paul Kasriel plk1@ntrs.com Will the Real Private Nonfarm Payrolls Please Stand Up? May 31, 20 Each month
More informationU.S. and Oklahoma Economic Update. Megan Williams Associate Economist and Manager, Oklahoma City Branch. The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy
U.S. and Oklahoma Economic Update Megan Williams Associate Economist and Manager, Oklahoma City Branch The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy GDP growth was relatively strong in the second half of Growth
More informationDothan Rotary Club. Economic Update. Lesley McClure Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta October 2, 2013
Economic Update Dothan Rotary Club The views expressed here are not necessarily those of the FOMC, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta or the Federal Reserve System. Lesley McClure Federal Reserve Bank
More informationNational Economic Indicators. December 11, 2017
National Economic Indicators December 11, 17 Table of Contents GDP Release Date Latest Period Page Table: Real Gross Domestic Product Nov-9-17 8:3 Q3-17 Real Gross Domestic Product Nov-9-17 8:3 Q3-17 5
More informationThe effect that housing has on the economy has received
NationalEconomicTrends May Boom & Gloom in Housing Markets: The Sequel The effect that housing has on the economy has received increased attention in recent years first for the recordhigh boom in house
More informationCredit, Housing, Commodities and the Economy Chartered Financial Analysts Institute Annual Conference
Credit, Housing, Commodities and the Economy Chartered Financial Analysts Institute Annual Conference May 13, 2008 Janet L. Yellen President and CEO Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Overview Financial
More informationHousing and Mortgage Market Update
Housing and Mortgage Market Update VCU Real Estate Trends Conference October 14, 29 Amy Crews Cutts, PhD Deputy Chief Economist Recession Risks Still Elevated, Housing Contraction Ongoing Recession risks
More informationEconomic Conditions and Outlook for the U.S., Kansas, and the Midwest
Economic Conditions and Outlook for the U.S., Kansas, and the Midwest Midwest Regional Public Finance Conference Wichita, KS April 25, 2014 Kelly D. Edmiston Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Overview
More informationEconomic Outlook. William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook CRF Credit & A/R Forum & EXPO Salt Lake City, UT October 23, 218 William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago What I said In August The outlook
More informationEconomic Highlights. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization 1. Payroll Employment Growth by State 2
July 21, 2010 Economic Highlights Manufacturing Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization 1 Employment Payroll Employment Growth by State 2 Sixth District State Employment Momentum 3 Consumer Spending
More informationA More Dovish Fed Helps Improve Economic and Housing Market Conditions
Light Vehicle Retail Sales [Imported+Domestic] (SAAR, Mil. Units) Economic Developments February 2018 A More Dovish Fed Helps Improve Economic and Housing Market Conditions Over the full year of 2019 we
More informationTHE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK RECESSION AND RECOVERY. Paul Darby Executive Director & Deuty Chief Economist Twitter hashtag: #psforum
THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK RECESSION AND RECOVERY Paul Darby Executive Director & Deuty Chief Economist Darby@conferenceboard.ca US OUTLOOK US recession is coming to an end Q3 likely to be positive due to inventory
More informationEmerging Trends in the U.S. and Colorado Economies
Emerging Trends in the U.S. and Colorado Economies Sam Chapman Associate Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Denver Branch The views expressed are those of the presenter and do not necessarily
More informationCREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT
CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CUNA Mutual Group Economics March 1 (January 1 Data) Highlights During January, credit unions picked up 3, in new memberships, and loan and savings balances grew at an 11.% and.%
More informationIn the past three decades, the share of foreign-born
NationalEconomicTrends June New Views on Immigration In the past three decades, the share of foreign-born workers in US total employment has increased markedly, from percent in 197 to 1 percent in Among
More informationCREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT
CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CUNA Mutual Group Economics November (September Data) Highlights During September, credit unions picked up 7, in new memberships, loan balances grew at a.7% annualized pace,
More informationLABOR SITUATION Office of Research
Sharon Palmer Commissioner LABOR SITUATION Office of Research FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE May 2013 Data CT Unemployment Rate = 8.0% US Unemployment Rate = 7.6% Nonfarm jobs rise 1,000 in May but the unemployment
More informationNationalEconomicTrends
NationalEconomicTrends January 000 The Economic Outlook for 000: Bulls on Parade? The heartening U.S. economic performance during the past four years has seemingly benefited everyone except those in the
More informationCREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT
CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CUNA Mutual Group Economics December (October Data) Highlights During October, credit unions picked-up, in new memberships, loan balances grew at a.% seasonallyadjusted annualized
More informationCBER Economic Indexes for Nevada and Southern Nevada
CBER Economic Indexes for Nevada and Southern Nevada Published December 19, 2017 Stephen M. Miller, PhD, Director Nicolas Prada, M.A., Graduate Research Assistant Summary of CBER s Nevada Indexes Coincident
More informationChad Wilkerson. Vice President, Economist, and Oklahoma City Branch Executive Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Chad Wilkerson Vice President, Economist, and Oklahoma City Branch Executive Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City www.kansascityfed.org Overview of the Federal Reserve System The Fed consists of three main
More informationSpring Activity Cools Following Exceptionally Warm Winter
Spring Activity Cools Following Exceptionally Warm Winter Economic growth slowed in the first quarter of 2012 to 2.2 percent at an annual rate from 3.0 percent in the final quarter of 2011, according to
More informationNationalEconomicTrends
NationalEconomicTrends August 001 The Switch to NAICS Measuring economic activity when the composition and quality of goods and services being produced is rapidly changing presents a perpetual challenge.
More informationThe labor market has continued to strengthen and economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace this year.
Current Economic Climate Overview The Federal Reserve publishes a report (known as the Beige Book) eight times per year that summarizes current economic conditions throughout the twelve Federal Reserve
More informationData current as of: June 3, ,000, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,000
Forecast current as of: Spring 214 Economic Indicators The unemployment rate fell by a large margin (.4 percentage points) in April. Total employment rose by 288, jobs. There were 32, construction jobs
More informationRecently the Federal Open Market Committee
NationalEconomicTrends Deflation, Corrosive and Otherwise Recently the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) mentioned deflation as a possible risk for the U.S. economy. In the statement released after
More informationU.S. & District Economic Outlook
U.S. & District Economic Outlook Nebraska LEAD Program February 5, 2015 Jason Brown Senior Economist The views expressed are those of the presenter and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Federal
More informationThe National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
NationalEconomicTrends July Using Stock Market Liquidity to Forecast Recessions The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee (the committee that dates U.S. recessions)
More informationECONversations. Economic and Policy Briefing Webcast Dave Altig, Research Director November 19, :00 p.m. ET
ECONversations Economic and Policy Briefing Webcast Dave Altig, Research Director November 9, 4 : p.m. ET Questions for Dave: events@atl.frb.org Technical issues: james.dooley@atl.frb.org Information received
More informationThe Week Ahead in US Economics December 26-30, 2011
The Week Ahead in US Economics December 26-30, 2011 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday 26 Christmas Day (Observed) 27 S&P Case-Shiller Idx (Oct) (09:00) Consumer Confidence (Dec) (10:00) Richmond
More informationRevised October 17, 2016
Revised October 17, 2016 60 ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (September 2015 September 2016) 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 Sept-15 Oct Nov Dec Jan-16 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Purchasing
More informationMacroeconomic Uncertainty
Macroeconomic Uncertainty Importance of Financial Planning There is, in fact, a direct relationship between household financial stability and the stability of the U.S. economy. Thus, the Federal Reserve
More informationState of Ohio Workforce. 2 nd Quarter
To Strengthen Ohio s Families through the Delivery of Integrated Solutions to Temporary Challenges State of Ohio Workforce 2 nd Quarter 2 0 1 2 Quarterly Report on the State of Ohio s Workforce Reference
More informationctrends Nominal Vs. Real Wage Growth Growth of Wages Percent Change From Year Ago August 1997
ctrends August 1997 Nominal Vs. Real Wage Growth Nominal wages, measured by nonfarm compensation per hour, grew at an average annual rate of 5.5 percent between 1947 and 1973 and 6 percent between 1973
More informationKey Labor Market and Economic Metrics
Key Labor Market and Economic Metrics May Update Incorporates Data Available on May 27 th, 2016 This reference is the result of a collaboration between the Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic
More informationNonfarm jobs fall by 400 in February; unemployment rate unchanged at 3.8%
Lincoln.dyer@ct.gov appears Office of Research Kurt Westby, Commissioner FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE February 2019 Data CT Unemployment Rate = 3.8% US Unemployment Rate = 3.8% Nonfarm jobs fall by 400 in February;
More informationThe Federal Reserve, Monetary Policy, and Economic Indicators
The Federal Reserve, Monetary Policy, and Economic Indicators Megan Williams Associate Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Oklahoma City Branch The Creation of the Fed The first two national
More informationMany analysts have argued that a housing boom preceded
NationalEconomicTrends September The Financial Services Sector: Boom and Recession Many analysts have argued that a housing boom preceded the recent financial crisis and economic slowdown Innovations in
More informationUnited States. Gross Domestic Product Percent change over year-ago level. Industrial Production Index, 2010=100. Unemployment Rate Percent
United States Summary Indicators Gross Domestic Product Percent change over year-ago level Industrial Production Index, 2010=100 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 2.5 108 110 112 114 114.9 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
More informationAsia Bond Monitor November 2018
7 December 8 Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets T he monetary board of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas decided to keep its key policy rates steady during its final meeting for the year on
More information2018 Texas Economic Outlook: Firing on All Cylinders
218 Texas Economic Outlook: Firing on All Cylinders Keith Phillips Assistant Vice President and Senior Economist 4/5/218 The views expressed in this presentation are strictly those of the presenter and
More informationReal GDP Growth Compounded annual rates of change. Consumer Price Index Percent change
National Economic Trends Real Gross Domestic Product (DISCONTINUED) Real GDP Growth Compounded annual rates of change 6 5 Compounded Annual Rate of Change 4 3 2 1-1 Q1 214 Q1 215 Q1 216 Q1 217 195 196
More information18. Real gross domestic product
18. Real gross domestic product 6 Percentage change from quarter to quarter 4 2-2 6 4 2-2 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 Total Non-agricultural sectors Seasonally adjusted and annualised rates South Africa s real
More information2018 MACRO OVERVIEW. More of the Same, Yet Less of the Same. March 9, 2018
2018 MACRO OVERVIEW More of the Same, Yet Less of the Same March 9, 2018 RICHARD FARR MERION CAPITAL GROUP 484-436-4764 rfarr@merioncapitalgroup.com Jan-04 Oct-04 Jul-05 Apr-06 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09
More information