Macroeconomic Uncertainty
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- Brice Gaines
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1 Macroeconomic Uncertainty
2 Importance of Financial Planning There is, in fact, a direct relationship between household financial stability and the stability of the U.S. economy. Thus, the Federal Reserve has an inherent interest in the financial stability and strength of individual households, whose spending, saving, and investing significantly impact economic growth. Ultimately, financially secure households are the backbone of a strong domestic economy. Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke - October 22, 2011
3 Some better than expected numbers in September/October: Industrial production: increased 0.2% (Sept) Manufacturing output increased 0.4% (Sept) The ISM nonmanufacturing index >50. (Sept) The business activity index >50 (Sept) The Conference Board index of leading indicators rose 0.3% (Oct) Business Cycle Index was 0.1% higher (Oct) Housing Market showed some improvement in activity (Oct) Retail Sales increased 1.1% (its largest monthly gain since February (Sept).
4 Job September jobs numbers better than expected Payroll employment rose by 103,000 in September. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.1%. Early indicators suggest that labor markets will continue improving in October. Not only were the September figures better than expected Gains for August were revised up measurably from 0 to 57,000. July's figures were also revised from 85,000 to 127,000. Thus, gains averaged 96,000 for the third quarter, just slightly below the second quarter average of 97,000
5 Uncertainty decreases confidence Business Confidence: Less hiring, less investment, less growth Less infrastructure to sustain long term economic growth Consumer Confidence: Less purchases (including large ticket items) Usually 70% of US GDP Investment Confidence: Less residential and non-residential investment Less money flying into the country (currently attenuated by the flight to quality effect)
6 Business Confidence
7 ISM Index >50 = expansion ISM index shows manufacturing sector near stasis in August
8 Non-manufacturing Index 65.0 Nonmanufacturing Composite Index Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11
9 CEO outlook on the Economy Outlook turns negative Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q SOURCE: Conference Board
10 CEO s outlook for their own industry 80 Expectations for the next 6 months turn negative Total Chemicals, Petroleum, Rubber Durables Services 20 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q SOURCE: Conference Board
11 Consumer Confidence
12 Consumer Sentiment Index 1st Quarter 1966= Jan-06 Oct-06 Jul-07 Apr-08 Jan-09 Oct-09 Jul-10 Source: Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan/FRED
13 Consumer confidence and expectations Confidence Expectations 20 0 Jan-2000 Jan-2001 Jan-2002 Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 * 1985 = 100. SOURCE: Conference Board
14 Consumption constrained Personal Consumption Expenditures 15.0 Percent change from 1 year ago Real Personal Consumption Expenditures: Durable Goods Real Personal Consumption Expenditures: Nondurable Goods Real Personal Consumption Expenditures: Services Jan-05 Dec-05 Nov-06 Oct-07 Sep-08 Aug-09 Jul-10 Jun-11 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis/FRED
15 Real personal income excluding current transfer receipts Percent Chg. From Year Ago Jan-00 Sep-01 May-03 Jan-05 Sep-06 May-08 Jan-10 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis/FRED
16 Personal Savings Rate Personal Saving Rate Percent Jan-05 Dec-05 Nov-06 Oct-07 Sep-08 Aug-09 Jul-10 Jun-11 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis/FRED
17 Investment Confidence
18 Nonresidential investment rebounds Real Private Nonresidential Fixed Investment Percent Change from 1 year ago Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis/FRED
19 Equipment and software drives the growth Real Nonresidential Investment: Equipment & Software, 3 Decimal Billions of Chained 2005 Dollars % annualized growth in Q Jan-06 Oct-06 Jul-07 Apr-08 Jan-09 Oct-09 Jul-10 Apr-11 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis/FRED
20 Ind. prod. for business equipment responds Industrial Production: Business Equipment Index 2007= Information processing equipment rose 12.6% annualized in Q Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System/FRED
21 Residential investment still muted Real Private Residential Fixed Investment Percent Chg. From Year Ago Home-buyer tax credit Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis/FRED
22 Home prices remain near bottom
23 New home sales are dismal New Homes Sold in the United States ,000 4,500 4,000 Thousands of Units New home sales Existing home sales 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Jan-05 Dec-05 Nov-06 Oct-07 Sep-08 Aug-09 Jul-10 Jun-11 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Census Bureau/FRED
24 Thus new starts are dismal Housing Starts: Total: New Privately Owned Housing Units Started Thousands of Units Jan-00 Sep-01 May-03 Jan-05 Sep-06 May-08 Jan-10 Sep-11 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Census Bureau/FRED
25 And residential construction remains depressed New Privately-Owned Housing Units Under Construction: Total Thousands of Units Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Census Bureau/FRED
26 This pressures construction employment Job Openings: Construction Level in Thousands Jan-05 Dec-05 Nov-06 Oct-07 Sep-08 Aug-09 Jul-10 Jun-11 Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics/FRED
27 which has yet to return. All Employees: Construction Thousands of Persons More than 2 million jobs lost Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics/FRED
28 despite historically low rates. 30-Year Conventional Mortgage Rate Percent Jan-05 Dec-05 Dec-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Sep-11 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System/FRED
29 Texas handling of home equity loans Delinquency rates on home equity & second mortgages still high nationally U.S. TX Jan 2001-Jan 2002-Jan 2003-Jan 2004-Jan 2005-Jan 2006-Jan 2007-Jan 2008-Jan 2009-Jan 2010-Jan 2011-Jan
30 Financial Market Confidence
31 Financial stress increases St. Louis Financial Stress Index Index Jan-05 Dec-05 Dec-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Sep-11 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis/FRED
32 Economy takes a pause market responds S&P 500 Index Index Jan-05 Sep-05 May-06 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 Source: Standard and Poor's/FRED
33 How does this recovery stack up historically?
34 GDP growth is slower than past recoveries
35 because the consumer remains constrained
36 and personal income is tepid.
37 Why? Soft employment.
38 and the unemployment duration keeps growing... Average (Mean) Duration of Unemployment Weeks Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics/FRED
39 Unemployment remains high at 9.1% Civilian Unemployment Rate Percent Jan-00 Sep-01 May-03 Jan-05 Sep-06 May-08 Jan-10 Sep-11 Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics/FRED
40 Relative to other financial crises
41 Exports bounced back faster than past
42 Exports A bright spot
43 Exports driving growth and manufacturing
44 Exports have rebounded nicely Real Exports & Imports of Goods & Services Billions of Chained 2005 Dollars Real Exports of Goods & Services, 3 Decimal Real Imports of Goods & Services, 3 Decimal Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis/FRED
45 Canada and Mexico lead trading partners Leading export growth regions Percent change from 1 year ago Exports to Canada Exports to Mexico Jan-05 Dec-05 Nov-06 Oct-07 Sep-08 Aug-09 Jul-10 Jun-11 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce: Census Bureau/FRED
46 Exports rose briskly in July
47 Imports moved down
48 Imports of petroleum especially declined
49 Government
50 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% Federal Government Receipts and Expenditures as a Percentage of GDP Govt Receipts Govt Expenditures
51 Government: Negative contributor to job growth
52 Texas
53 Dallas District leads in employment gains
54 Texas Employment Growth
55 Employment growth by sector
56 Fed Balance Sheet $3,500,000 In Millions of $s $3,000,000 $2,500,000 $2,000,000 $1,500,000 Treasury securities Federal agency debt securities Mortgage-backed securities Repurchase agreements Special drawing rights Treasury currency outstanding Float Gold stock Other assets Primary credit Secondary credit Seasonal credit Liquidity Programs Central bank liquidity swaps Maiden Lane, AIA Aurora LLC & ALICO Holdings LLC Term Asset Lending Facility Other credit extensions Credit to AIG Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility $1,000,000 $500,000 $
57 Operation Twist 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% over 10 years 5 years to 10 years 1 year to 5 years 91 days to 1 year 16 days to 90 days within 15 Estimate through June % 0% estimate estimate estimate estimate
58 In closing Monetary policy can be a powerful tool, but it is not a panacea for the problems currently faced by the U.S. economy. Fostering healthy growth and job creation is a shared responsibility of all economic policymakers, in close cooperation with the private sector. Fiscal policy is of critical importance, but a wide range of other policies--pertaining to labor markets, housing, trade, taxation, and regulation, for example--also have important roles to play. For our part, we at the Federal Reserve will continue to work to help create an environment that provides the greatest possible economic opportunity for all Americans. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke Economic Outlook and Recent Monetary Policy Actions, Before the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress, Washington, D.C., October 4, 2011
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