Economic and Housing Outlook
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1 Economic and Housing Outlook Macdonald Realty Monday, January 23, 212 Helmut Pastrick Chief Economist Central 1 Credit Union
2 Outline: European developments U.S. economy and forecasts Canadian economic forecasts B.C. and Metro Vancouver economic conditions Metro Vancouver housing Summary
3 Market pushing riskier sovereign debt bond yields higher 1-year Govt. Bond Yields, Selected European Economies Per cent /4/1 8/9/1 3/1/211 1/6/211 Greece Portugal Ireland Italy Spain Germany Source: Bloomberg. Latest: 1/18/212
4 Market turns negative on Italy and Spain sovereign debt, France under pressure 1-year Govt. Bond Yields, Selected European Economies Per cent 15 Portugal Ireland 1 5 1/3/211 4/18/211 8/1/211 11/14/211 Italy Spain France Germany Source: Bloomberg. Latest: 1/18/212
5 Italy, Spain have highest funding needs; in excess of 1 1 trillion in Gross Financing Needs, Selected European Economies Euros - billions Italy Spain Belgium Greece Portugal Ireland Source: IMF Fiscal Monitor Sept. 211.
6 Banks are tightening credit conditions for European business Net percentage of banks Credit Conditions for Business Enterprises, Euro Area Actual (past 3 mos.) Expected (next 3 mos.) -2 Q1-7 Q1-8 Q1-9 Q1-1 Q1-11 Source: ECB Euro Area Bank Lending Survey. Latest: Q4-11 (October)
7 Europe in recession, manufacturing output contracting Eurozone Manufacturing PMI and Industrial Production Balance of opinion (%) Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 25= PMI (L) IP (R) Source: Eurostat, Markit. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: PMI Dec., IP Nov.
8 Mild recession in 212, weak growth thereafter Euro Zone Economic Growth - Consensus Scenario Per cent change in real GDP Actual Forecast Source: Eurostat, Consensus Forecasts Jan Latest actual: 21
9 Deep and severe recession associated with banking crisis Euro Zone Economic Growth, Banking Crisis Scenario Per cent change in real GDP 6 4 Forecast Actual Source: Eurostat, C1CU forecasts. Latest actual: 21
10 China's manufacturing expands at a slower pace in 211 Industrial Production, China 25= Per cent change annualized IP (L) % chg. (R) 14 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Source: World Bank. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Dec-11
11 U.S. employment rising; remains well below pre-recession levels U.S. Payroll Employment, Total and Monthly Change Persons - millions Total (L) Persons - thousands Change (R) Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11-1 Source: U.S. BLS. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Dec-11
12 Government employment dropping, private sector expanding U.S. Private and Government Employment Trends 27= Census hires Government Private Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Source: U.S. BLS, C1CU. Note: Seasonally adjusted Latest: Dec-11
13 U.S. housing sales at or near cycle bottom Existing Home Sales, Monthly Units - millions, saar Jan-8 Jul-9 Jan-11 Source: NAR. Latest: Dec-11 Units - millions Source: NAR Annually, U.S.
14 U.S. housing prices sliding lower Dollars - thousands Median Sale Price, Monthly 15 Jan-8 Jul-9 Jan-11 Source: NAR. Latest: Nov Q1= HPI Annually, U.S Source: FHFA. Latest: Q3-211
15 U.S. housing starts at or near cycle bottom Units - millions, saar Housing Starts, Monthly.4 Jan-8 Jul-9 Jan-11 Source: Census Bureau. Latest: Dec-11 Units - millions Annually, U.S Source: Census Bureau.
16 No recession in forecast, more sub-par growth in 212 Percentage change at annual rate in real GDP 5 U.S. Economic Growth -5 High Median Low Actual Forecast -1 Q1-8 Q1-9 Q1-1 Q1-11 Q1-12 Source: U.S. BEA, WSJ January 212 Survey. Latest actual: Q3-11
17 U.S. economy to grow above 3% after 213 Per cent change in real GDP U.S. Long-term Economic Growth Actual Forecast Source: U.S. BEA, Consensus Forecasts. Latest actual: 21
18 GDP rebounds in Q3-211 slows into 212, below-trend growth in 212 Canada's Economic Growth Percentage change at annual rate in real GDP Forecast -9 Q1-8 Q1-9 Q1-1 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Actual Consensus BoC C1CU Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, C1CU. Latest actual: Q3-11
19 Low interest rates in 212, Bank of Canada on hold until spring 213 Interest Rate Forecasts, Quarterly Per cent 8 6 Actual Forecast 5y mortgage Prime 4 5y GIC 2 Target Q1-8 Q1-9 Q1-1 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Source: Bank of Canada, C1CU. Note: Averages. Latest actual: Q4-11
20 Canadian dollar rising later in 212 Canadian Dollar Exchange Rate US $ Actual Forecast.7 Q1-8 Q1-9 Q1-1 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 C1CU BMO CIBC RBC Scotia TD Source: Bank of Canada, C1CU survey. Latest actual: Q4-11
21 B.C.'s economic recovery slows in 211 Key Economic Indicators, B.C. Per cent U. Rate GDP Employment Source: Statistics Canada. Note: C1CU estimate for 211 GDP
22 Job resurgence in Metro Vancouver, rest of B.C. lower since recession Employment Trends, Metro Vancouver and Rest of B.C. 27= Vancouver Rest Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU.
23 Labour income advancing at modest pace Per cent Change in Fixed-Weighted Average Hourly Earnings, B.C Source: Statistics Canada. Latest: Average year-to-date Oct-11
24 Consumer price inflation up in 211 mainly on energy and food Per cent 3 Change in Consumer Price Index, B.C * Source: Statistics Canada. *Average year-to-date Nov-11
25 Interprovincial migration turns negative 2 15 B.C. Net Migration by Type, Quarterly Persons - thousands 1 5 Net international Net interprovincial -5 Q1-3 Q1-5 Q1-7 Q1-9 Q1-11 Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Q3-11
26 Rising population growth since 24, likely lower in 211 Per cent Metro Vancouver Population Growth, Annually Source: Statistics Canada. Note: As of July 1. Latest: 21
27 New business formations up slightly in 211 B.C. Business Incorporations Number - thousands * Source: BC Finance. *12 mo. to Oct. B.C. Business Bankruptcies Number * Source: OSB Canada. *12 mo. to Oct.
28 Tourist traffic at very low levels Persons - millions B.C. International Tourist Entries Source: Statistics Canada. Note: 12 months ending Oct-11.
29 Lacklustre retail sales performance in 211 Dollars - billions Retail Sales - Metro Vancouver Current $ 22 $ Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU. Note: 12 months ending Oct-11.
30 Metro Vancouver Non-residential Building Construction Investment Spending Dollars - billions Commerical and Industrial Institutional-Government Dollars - billions 1. Current $ 22 $ Source: Statistics Canada Note: Annual totals.
31 Housing sales holding at moderate levels MLS Residential Sales, Monthly Units - thousands, s.a. 5 7 New Listings, REBGV Units - thousands, s.a Jan-8 Jul-9 Jan-11 Source: CREA. Latest: Dec-11 3 Jan-8 Jul-9 Jan-11 Source: CREA
32 Listings on market at normal levels relative to sales activity Active Listings and Sales-to-active Listings Ratio Units - thousands Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Ratio Listings (L) Ratio (R) Source: REBGV, C1CU. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Dec-11
33 Home price rise slows during 211 REBGV MLS Housing Price Index 21= Per cent change at annual rate HPI (L) % change (R) 2 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11-2 Source: REBGV, C1CU. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Dec-11
34 Sales at low point of cycle Units - thousands 75 Residential Sales, Metro Vancouver Source: Landcor Data Corp. Latest: 12 months ending Nov-11
35 Housing starts rebound from recession low to above-average level Units - thousands 25 Metro Vancouver Housing Starts Source: CMHC.
36 Prices at record high, growing divergence between average and median prices Residential Avg. and Median Sale Prices, Metro Vancouver Dollars - thousands Average Median Source: Landcor Data Corp.
37 Price-to-income ratios at record high; over-valued and reverts to mean? Ratio 7 6 Residential Price-to-income Ratios, Metro Vancouver Average price Median price Source: C1CU. Note: Based on average total income of non-elderly families.
38 Low flipping activity in current market 4 Holding Period of Sales, Metro Vancouver Per cent of sales yr. or less 3 mo. or less 1 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan- Jan-1 Source: Landcor Data Corp. Latest: Nov-11
39 Long-term price trend upward due to rising demand in land-constrained market Residential Median Sale Price and Population Density Metro Vancouver Dollars - thousands Persons per sq. km * 12 9 Median price (L) Density (R) Source: Statistics Canada, Landcor Data Corp., BC Stats for population projections Note: Dashed lines are projections. Land area = 2,877.4 sq. km.
40 Summary: European debt-banking crisis largest risk; policymakers avoid euro and banking collapse U.S. economy grows below trend in 212 and 213 on fiscal drag and weaker exports Low interest rates in B.C. economy grows at moderate pace in ; higher growth awaits global and U.S. resurgence Housing market activity range-bound near term; no recession, no bubble
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