In the past three decades, the share of foreign-born
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1 NationalEconomicTrends June New Views on Immigration In the past three decades, the share of foreign-born workers in US total employment has increased markedly, from percent in 197 to 1 percent in Among economists, one of the fundamental issues in the immigration debate is estimating the effects that foreign-born workers have on the real wages of US-born workers Until recently, the findings indicated that there were very few benefits in terms of higher real wages In fact, some studies had suggested that the effects could be large and negative, particularly for US-born workers with low levels of schooling For example, one influential study found that, because of immigration, real wages of US- born workers declined about percent between 19 and for the average worker and almost 9 percent for workers without a high school diploma 1 On the other hand, recent studies by economists Ottaviano and Peri identify benefits derived from the diversity of the immigrant population They argue that previous findings focused solely on the partial effect of foreignborn workers on the wages of US-born workers within very similar occupation and educational attainment groups; but these findings ignored the effects that an increase in the number of foreign-born workers has for groups of US- born workers with different characteristics, The authors accounted for the effects of the differences in educational attainment and occupational choices among foreign- and US-born workers and found that, on average, real wages of US-born workers increased by about percent between 19 and They also found that wages of workers without a high school diploma declined in real terms, but only slightly, by about percent In the context of an increase in immigration, the authors identify two sources of differences between foreign-born workers and US-born workers that affect wages positively These positive effects rely on the assumption that US firms employ a balanced mix of workers with different characteristics First, the authors observe that the distribution of educational levels differs between foreign-born and US-born workers The share of foreign-born workers with low levels of schooling as well as the share with high levels of schooling both tend to exceed those of US-born workers Meanwhile, the share of foreign-born workers with intermediate levels of schooling tends to be less than that of US-born workers Thus, competition from increased immigration among workers with low and high levels of schooling leads to an increase in employment and to a decline in the wages of workers in these educational levels Because firms employ a balanced mix of workers, workers with intermediate levels of schooling become comparatively scarcer and their wages rise The distribution of US workers (about percent of the total) is concentd at intermediate levels of schooling and the authors find that their gains lead to an overall positive effect on wages Second, the authors observe that, even among workers with similar educational attainment levels, foreign-born workers choose very different occupations, attenuating competition for the jobs that US workers seek US-born workers, particularly those with low and high levels of schooling, possess characteristics that cannot be easily substituted by those of foreign-born workers, so their wages do not decline much in response to an increase in the number of foreign-born workers Increased immigration, particularly in the short run, can carry large adjustment costs The assimilation of new immigrants is associated with an increased need for public spending, the provision of public schools, and law enforcement Additionally, integration of immigrants into the labor force does not occur seamlessly In the long run, however, as immigrants are assimilated, their rich diversity of abilities and occupations has the potential to improve the wages of US-born workers All of these costs and benefits ought to inform the debate over immigration Rubén Hernández-Murillo 1 Borjas, George J The Labor Demand Curve Is Downward Sloping: Reexamining the Impact of Immigration on the Labor Market Quarterly Journal of Economics, November, 11(), pp 1-7 Ottaviano, Gianmarco IP and Peri, Giovanni Cities and Cultures Journal of Urban Economics, September, (), pp -7 Ottaviano, Gianmarco IP and Peri, Giovanni Rethinking the Gains from Immigration: Theory and Evidence from the US, FEEM Working Paper No ; Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System researchstlouisfedorg
2 Contents Page Economy at a Glance Output and Growth 7 Interest Rates Inflation and Prices 1 Labor Markets 1 Consumer Spending 1 Investment Spending 1 Government Revenues, Spending, and Debt 1 International Trade Productivity and Profits Quick Reference Tables 7 Notes and Sources Conventions used in this publication: 1 Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research refers to simple percent changes from year refers to the percent change from the same month or quarter during the previous year Compounded annual of change shows what the growth would be over an entire year if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months The compounded annual of change of x between the previous quarter t 1 and the current quarter t is: [(x t /x t 1 ) 1] 1 For monthly data replace with 1 All data with significant seasonal patterns are adjusted accordingly, unless labeled NSA We welcome your comments addressed to: Editor, National Economic Trends PO Box St Louis, MO 1- or to: stlsfred@stlsfrborg National Economic Trends is published by the of the Visit the s website at researchstlouisfedorg/publications/net to download the current version of this publication or register for notification updates For more information on data in this publication, please visit researchstlouisfedorg/fred or call (1) -7
3 updated through // National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth Compounded annual s of change 1 Consumer Price Industrial Production Interest Rates Percent Treasury -Month Treasury Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Thousands Unemployment Rate Percent of labor force
4 National Economic Trends updated through // Real Gross Domestic Product from year Industrial Production and Institute for Supply Management (ISM) es from year 1 1 Industrial Production ISM Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours from year Real Change in Private Inventories Percent of GDP
5 updated through // Real Final Sales and GDP Compounded annual s of change Final Sales Real GDP Revisions National Economic Trends Compounded annual s of change 7 Advance Preliminary Final Revision GDP (bar) :1 : : : :1 Industrial Production and ISM 1 1 ISM Nominal Gross Domestic Product Compounded annual s of change Industrial Production (bar) Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours 1 Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Billions of dollars Inventory-Sales Ratio Manufacturing and trade
6 National Economic Trends updated through // Contribution of Components to Real GDP Growth Percentage points at compounded annual s Q Q Q Q1 Q Q Q Q1 Consumption Exports Government Imports Inventories Investment Contributions to Real GDP Growth Rate nd rd th 1st nd rd th 1st Final Sales Consumption 1 1 Fixed Investment Nonresidential Residential Government Federal State and Local Net Exports Exports Imports Change in Inventory Residual Real GDP Growth
7 updated through /1/ National Economic Trends Interest Rates Percent Treasury -Month Treasury Treasury Yield Curve Percent 7 7 May Week Ending: // 7 May 7 m 1y y y 7y 1y Standard and Poor's with Reinvested Dividends from year
8 National Economic Trends updated through /1/ NIPA Chain Price es from year 1 1 GDP Gross Domestic Purchases Consumer Price from year 1 9 Excl Food and Energy All Items Producer Price, Finished Goods from year 1 - Excl Food and Energy PPI Employment Cost and Compensation per Hour from year 1 9 Comp per Hour ECI
9 updated through /1/ NIPA Chain Price es Compounded annual s of change Gross Domestic Purchases National Economic Trends Oil & Natural Gas Prices: Spot & Futures Dollars per barrel 7 Spot Oil Dollars per million btu Oil Futures 1 1 GDP (bar) Consumer Price Compounded annual s of change 1 Spot Gas Gas Futures Note: Futures prices as of /1/ Consumption Chain Price Compounded annual s of change CPI (bar) PCE (bar) - Excl Food & Energy - Excl Food & Energy Producer Price, Finished Goods Compounded annual s of change Unit Labor Cost Compounded annual s of change 1-1 PPI (bar) Excl Food & Energy Manufacturing (bar) Nonfarm Employment Cost from year Compensation per Hour Compounded annual s of change 1 1 Benefits Compensation Wages and Salaries
10 National Economic Trends updated through // Employment from year Payroll Survey Household Survey Unemployment, Labor Force Participation, and Employment Rates Percent of labor force 1 9 Labor Force/Population Employment/Population Percent of population Unemployment Rate Duration of Unemployment Percent of labor force Weeks Unemployed > Weeks Unemployed < Weeks Median
11 updated through // National Economic Trends Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Thousands Change in Manufacturing Payrolls Thousands Change in Household Employment Thousands Labor Force and Population from year 9% Confidence 1 Pop - Labor Force Available Labor Supply and Components Percent of labor force 1 Unemployment Rate & Help-Wanted Percent Available Labor Supply Unemployed Unemployment Rate 9% Confidence 7 7 Want to Work Help-Wanted
12 National Economic Trends updated through // Real Disposable Personal Income from year, quarterly data Real Consumption from year, quarterly data 1 Durables from year, quarterly data 1 Total Retail and Food Services Sales from year, quarterly average *Data from Jan 199 to the present are on a NAICS basis; data prior to Jan 199 are on an SIC basis and are not strictly comparable (see End Note) Debt Service Payments and Household Debt Outstanding from year, quarterly data 1 Percent of disposable personal income 1 Debt Service Payments Household Debt Outstanding
13 updated through // Real Disposable Personal Income Personal Saving Rate National Economic Trends Percent Real Consumption Compounded annual s of change Real Consumption Retail & Food Services 1 Ex Autos Real Durables Consumption & Vehicle Sales 1 Millions of vehicles, annual Autos and Light Trucks 1-1 Total (bar) Durables (bar) Consumer Sentiment (U of Michigan) 11 Real Durables Consumption Compounded annual s of change
14 National Economic Trends updated through // Investment Percent of nominal GDP Total Private Private Fixed Investment from year 1 Nominal 1 Real Real Nonresidential Fixed and Equipment & Software Investment from year Equipment & Software Nonresidential Real Residential Fixed Investment from year
15 updated through // National Economic Trends Gross Saving Rates and Balance on Current Account (NIPA) Percent of GDP Gross Private Saving Gross Govt Saving BOCA Real Private Fixed Investment Compounded annual s of change 1 Nondefense Capital Goods Orders from year, excluding aircraft Equipment & Software Investment Orders Real Equipment & Software Investment Compounded annual s of change Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment Compounded annual s of change Real Residential Fixed Investment Compounded annual s of change Housing Starts and New Home Sales Millions, annual New Home Sales Millions, annual 17 9 Housing Starts
16 National Economic Trends updated through // Govt Consumption and Investment Billions of dollars 1 Govt Current Receipts and Expenditures Percent of GDP Total Expenditures 1 Total Total Receipts 1 State & Local Fed Expenditures 9 Federal Fed Receipts Government Budgets Billions of dollars National Income Accounts Calendar s Unified Budget Fiscal s Receipts State and Local Federal Federal Expenditures Surplus or Deficit (-) Receipts Expenditures Surplus or Deficit (-) Receipts Outlays Surplus or Deficit (-) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q
17 updated through // Federal Debt Percent of GDP 7 Total Percent of GDP National Economic Trends Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-) Held by Public NIPA Unified Budget Change in Federal Debt Percent of GDP NIPA: Net government saving Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-), Unified Basis Billions of dollars, fiscal years 7 Total Excl interest payments - Held by Public - - Total Federal Government Debt Billions of dollars, end of month or fiscal year Excludes Agency-issued debt Total Public Debt Held by Agencies and Trusts Held by Public Federal Total Reserve Banks Held by Private Investors Foreign and Total International March June September December March June September December March June September December March June September December
18 National Economic Trends updated through /1/ Current Account, Trade and Investment Income Balances Billions of dollars, quarterly Investment Income Current Account Goods and Services Percent of GDP Exchange Rates, March 197 = 1 1 Yen/US$ 1 x (Ecu or Euro/US$) Yen Major Currency Euro Ecu Goods Export Shares, Goods Import Shares, UK % Mexico 1% UK % Mexico 117% China % All Other 1% China 9% France 1% Japan 1% Germany % All Other 79% Japan % Germany 7% Other OECD 1719% Canada % France % Other OECD 19% Canada 1719% 1
19 updated through /1/ Trade Balance Billions of dollars -1 Goods Trade from year National Economic Trends - - Goods and Services Imports Goods 1 Exports Current Account Balance Billions of dollars Services Trade from year Imports Exports Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners Compounded annual s of change United Kingdom Germany Canada France Japan Mexico
20 National Economic Trends updated through /1/ Output per Hour and Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing from year 1 Utilization Rate (level) Percent 9 7 Output/Hour *Data from 197 to the present are on a NAICS basis; data prior to 197 are on an SIC basis and are not strictly comparable (see End Note) Nonfarm Compensation per Hour from year 1 Nominal Real Output per Hour, Nonfarm Business and Nonfinancial Corporations from year 9 Nonfinancial Corporations Nonfarm Business Sector
21 updated through /1/ National Economic Trends Nonfarm Output per Hour Compounded annual s of change Manufacturing Output per Hour Compounded annual s of change Selected Component Shares of National Income Percent Percent Corpo Profits Proprietors' Income Compensation Corpo Profits Percent of GDP Profits (Before Tax) Profits (After Tax)
22 National Economic Trends updated through // Billions of $ Nominal GDP Billions of $ Real GDP Billions of $ Final Sales Change in Private Inventories Billions of $ Last qtr / Billions of $ Consumption Durables Consumption Billions of $ Private Fixed Investment Billions of $ Nonresidential Fixed Investment Billions of $
23 updated through /1/ National Economic Trends GDP Chain Price Employment Cost ECI: Wages ECI: Benefits Billions of $ Exports Billions of $ Imports Nonfarm Output per Hour Nonfarm Compensation per Hour
24 National Economic Trends updated through // Household Survey Employment Thousands Change Nonfarm Payroll Employment Thousands Change Nonfarm Aggregate Hours Monthly May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
25 updated through // National Economic Trends Unempl Rate Retail and Food Services Sales Billions of dollars Monthly/ quarterly Industrial Production Monthly/ quarterly Treasury Yields (Percent) -mo 1-yr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 7 11
26 National Economic Trends Consumer Price Monthly/ quarterly to date Consumer Price less Food and Energy Monthly/ quarterly to date updated through /17/ Producer Price Finished Goods Monthly/ quarterly Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
27 National Economic Trends Notes Pages, : Final Sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change in private inventories Advance, Preliminary, and Final GDP Growth Rates are released during the first, second, and third months of the following quarter Changes result from incorporation of more complete information Real GDP is measured in dollars The ISM (formerly Purchasing Managers ) is a weighted average of diffusion indexes for new orders, production, supplier deliveries, inventories, and employment Aggregate and Average Weekly Hours are paid hours of production and nonsupervisory employees The Inventory-Sales Ratio uses nominal (current-dollar) inventory and sales data Page : For information on how to calculate the Contribution of a component to the overall GDP growth, see the October 1999 issue of the Survey of Current Business, p 1 The sign is changed for Imports Page 7: Ten-year Treasury Yields are adjusted to constant maturity; threemonth yields are secondary market averages All s used in the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity The -year constant maturity series was discontinued by the Treasury Department as of Feb 1, Standard and Poor s with Reinvested Dividends shows the total return: capital gains plus dividends Pages, 9: Oil (West Texas intermediate) and Natural Gas (Henry Hub) spot and futures prices are listed in the Wall Street Journal Spot prices are monthly averages of daily prices; futures prices are usually taken from the last trading day of the month Consumer Price is for all urban consumers The Consumption Chain Price is the index associated with the personal consumption expenditures component of GDP The Employment Cost (ECI) covers private nonfarm employers ECI Compensation refers to a fixed sample of jobs, while Compensation per Hour covers all workers in the nonfarm business sector in a given quarter In both cases, compensation is wages and salaries plus benefits Pages 1, 11: Effective with the May Employment Situation, the establishment survey data for employment, hours, and earnings have been converted from the 197 SIC system to the NAICS system All published NAICS-based labor series have been revised back to at least 199 For more information see Nonfarm Payroll Employment is counted in a survey of about, establishments (Current Employment Survey) It excludes self-employed individuals and workers in private households, but double-counts individuals with more than one job The Household Survey (Current Population Survey) of about, households provides estimates of civilian employment, unemployment, labor force participation, and employment-population ratio Population is civilian, noninstitutional, 1 years and over The 9 percent confidence intervals for the unemployment (± percentage points) and change in household survey employment (± 9,) measure uncertainty due to sample size Because the household survey was changed in January 199, data prior to this date are not strictly comparable The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced several revisions to the Household Survey on Feb 7,, with the release of the January data For more information, see <wwwblsgov/cps/> Page 1: The Michigan Consumer Sentiment shows changes in a summary measure of consumers answers to five questions about their current and expected financial situation, expectations about future economic conditions, and attitudes about making large purchases The survey is based on a representative sample of US households Page : Gross Private Saving is the sum of personal saving, undistributed corpo profits with IVA and CCAdj (see notes for pp 1-19), and private wage accruals less disbursements Gross Government Saving is net government saving (surplus/deficit) plus consumption of fixed capital Balance on Current Account (NIPA) is net capital transfer payments to the rest of the world plus net lending or net borrowing (international trade and income flows) Pages 1, 17: Government Consumption and Investment is current expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption (depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the NIPAs The Unified Federal Budget Surplus/Deficit differs from NIPA Basis in four main ways: (1) NIPA excludes transactions involving existing assets; () NIPA outlays exclude government investment and include consumption of government capital, while unified budget outlays do the reverse; () NIPA accounts exclude Puerto Rico and US territories; and () various timing issues are handled differently Outlays and Receipts are from the NIPAs, except as noted Since 1977, the federal Fiscal starts on October 1 Excluded agency debt was percent of federal debt at the end of fiscal 1997 Federal Debt Held by the Public includes holdings of the Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings of the social security and other federal trust funds Federal grants in aid to state and local governments appear in both state and local receipts and federal outlays Pages 1, 19: The Trade Balance (shown on a balance of payments basis) is the difference between exports and imports of goods (merchandise) and services It is nearly identical in concept to the Net Exports component of GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details The Investment Income Balance equals income received from US-owned assets in other countries minus income paid on foreign-owned assets in the US The investment income balance is nearly identical in concept to the difference between gross national product and gross domestic product, but differs in accounting details The Current Account Balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment income plus net unilateral transfers to the US from other countries Pages, 1: Output per Hour (Y/H), Unit Labor Cost (C/Y), and Compensation per Hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %() meaning percent changes Unit labor cost is shown on page 9 Real Compensation per Hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects of inflation Nonfarm business accounted for about 7 percent of the value of GDP in 199, while nonfinancial corporations accounted for about percent Inventory Valuation Adjustments (IVA) remove the effect of changes in the value of existing inventories from corpo profits and proprietors income (This change in value does not correspond to current production and therefore is not part of GDP) Capital Consumption Adjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors income by the difference between estimates of economic depreciation and depreciation allowed by the tax code Components of national income not shown are rental income of persons and net interest NOTE: Most measures of economic activity are now based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), which replaces the 197 Standard Industry Classification (SIC) system Sources Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), US Dept of Commerce National income and product accounts, international trade and investment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales Census Bureau, US Dept of Commerce Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing starts, exports and imports by country Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), US Dept of Labor All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensation per hour, multifactor productivity United States Department of Treasury Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit, debt Federal Reserve Board of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange s, capacity utilization, household debt The Survey Research Center, The University of Michigan Consumer sentiment index The Conference Board Help-wanted advertising index Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED) 7
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