Industry Trends Watch
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1 Costing Trends - Alberta Asphalt Cement (Edmonton Rack $C/t) The Edmonton rack price for asphalt cement surged to $730 per tonne in early May. The rack price index averaged $655 per tonne in April and $605 in March. In May 2017, the rack price index was $650. Diesel Fuel (Retail price $/litre) The diesel fuel retail price in Calgary averaged $1.224 per litre in April, down from $1.233 in March. In Edmonton, diesel prices averaged $1.205 in April compared with $1.212 in March. Inflation (CPI) Alberta s consumer price index increased in April by 2.3% yr/yr, unchanged from the preceding month. The annual inflation rate in Alberta was 1.7% in April of last year. 1 P a g e
2 Non-residential Building Construction Price Index The non-residential construction price index for Calgary increased in the 1 st quarter by 1.3% year-over-year. The non-res. price index for Edmonton also increased by 1.3% compared with the first 3 months of Construction Union Wage Rates The composite construction union wage rate indexes for Calgary & Edmonton were unchanged in April. In both cities, construction union wage rates have not changed yr/yr since Nov P a g e
3 Labour Market Conditions Employment The number of people working (SA) in Alberta decreased by 1,800 jobs mo/mo in April. An increase in full-time work was offset by fewer part-time positions. Year-over-year, total employment in April was up by 36,500 jobs. Unemployment Rate The unemployment rate (SA) in Alberta increased to 6.7% in April from 6.3% in March. The jobless rate in April 2017 was 7.9%. Avg. Weekly Earnings Statistics Canada`s average weekly earnings (seasonally adjusted) in Alberta increased in February by 4.4% yr/yr to $1,158. During the first 2 months of 2018, AWE levels were up on average by 3.7% from the same time last year. 3 P a g e
4 Employment Insurance Claimants The number of EI claimants (seasonally adjusted) in Alberta declined in March by 2.4% mo/mo to just over 60,000 recipients. After 3 months in 2018, EI beneficiaries were down by almost 27% from the 1 st quarter of last year. 4 P a g e
5 Costing Trends - Canada Lumber & Wood Product Prices Canadian lumber and wood product prices increased 5.1% yr/yr in March. During the 1 st quarter of 2018, this component of the Statistics Canada Industrial Products price index was up on average by 5.3% from the same time last year. Fabricated Metal Product & Construction Material Prices The Canadian price index for construction materials and fabricated metal products increased in March by almost 4% from a year earlier. So far this year, this StatCan index was up on average by 4% from the first 3 months of Energy & Petroleum Products Prices The energy and petroleum products price index in Canada increased in March by 12.4% yr/yr. After 3 months in 2018, this price index was up 11.6% over the 1 st quarter of last year. 5 P a g e
6 Financial Indicators Mortgage rates The 5-year posted (qualifying) mortgage rate increased on May 10 th to 5.34% from 5.14% in April. This time last year, the qualifying mortgage rate stood at 4.64%. Exchange Rate ($US in $C) The US dollar averaged $1.27 Canadian in April, down from $1.29 in March. In April of last year, $1.00 US was worth $1.34 Canadian. 6 P a g e
7 Development Building Permit Values Total building permit values (unadjusted) in Alberta increased in March by 9% from a year prior to $1.2 billion. Residential intentions increased 14% to $766 million while non-residential permit values were 1% higher to $436 million. Housing Starts Housing starts in Alberta s cities of 10,000+ decreased in April by 11.5% year-over year to 2,253 units. After 4 months this year, total starts in urban areas have declined by 7.4% from January to April 2017 to 7,492 units. 7 P a g e
8 Economic Indicators International Exports Alberta Alberta s exports ($ value) decreased in March by 1.4% from a year earlier to $9.1 billion. Total exports in the 1 st quarter were up by 4.2% from January to March Manufacturing Shipments Alberta Alberta s manufacturing shipments (seasonally adjusted) increased in March by 5% yr/yr $6.16 billion. During the first 3 months of the year, manufacturing sales were up by 7% from the first quarter of Retail Sales Alberta Retail sales in Alberta (seasonally adjusted) increased in March by 1.5% from the same month last year to $6.75 billion. To the end of March this year, sales were up 1.2% over the 1 st 3 months of P a g e
9 Drilling Rig Activity - Alberta According to the CAODC, 80 drilling rigs were active in Alberta on average during April, down almost 6% from a year earlier. This followed a 4% yr/yr decline in March. Alberta Activities Index (AAX) The Alberta Activities Index (AAX) was up in February by 2.5% from a year prior. After 2 months in 2018, AAX was up on average by 3.4% over January & February P a g e
10 COSTING TRENDS - ALBERTA Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual ASPHALT CEMENT - EDMONTON RACK (C$/T) Industry Sources AVERAGE RETAIL PRICE - DIESEL FUEL ($/litre) - CALGARY AVERAGE RETAIL PRICE - DIESEL FUEL ($/litre) - EDMONTON Source: NRCan INFLATION RATE (CPI Composite - All Items - yr/yr % Chng.) % 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.3% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 1.0% 1.1% % 2.2% 1.3% 1.7% 1.2% 0.4% 1.0% 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% % 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.1% CONSTRUCTION UNION WAGE RATES (Composite Index - yr/yr % Chng.) - CALGARY* % 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% CONSTRUCTION UNION WAGE RATES (Composite Index - yr/yr % Chng.) - EDMONTON* % 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% * inc. Supplementary payments NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONSTRUCTION PRICE INDEX (yr/yr % Chng.) - CALGARY % -3.8% -2.6% -1.9% -2.6% % 2.1% 2.2% 2.1% 1.6% % 1.3% NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONSTRUCTION PRICE INDEX (yr/yr % Chng.) - EDMONTON % -4.2% -2.6% -2.6% -2.9% % 0.6% 0.6% 1.0% 0.3% % 1.3% (Series revised 2018Q1) 10 P a g e
11 ALBERTA LABOUR MARKET CONDITIONS Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual EMPLOYMENT (X,000 SA) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,319.9 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (% SA) AVG. WEEKLY EARNINGS ($ SA) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,151.7 EI CLAIMANTS ,980 67,110 69,700 70,780 79,680 80, ,950 91,640 90,850 93,370 95,990 95,490 83, ,320 84,680 81,580 77,670 73,630 70,680 69,590 66,470 63,370 62,350 63,820 63,400 72, ,210 61,550 60,070 61,610 TOTAL NET MIGRATION (ALBERTA - QUARTERLY) ,286 9,571 7,932 5,016 29, ,288 6,713 5,419 2,916 22, ,258 5,486 11,106 5,599 26,449 SA=seasonally adjusted COSTING TRENDS - CANADA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCT PRICE INDEXES Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual LUMBER & OTHER WOOD PRODUCTS PRICE INDEX (CANADA) FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS & CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS PRICE INDEX (CANADA) ENERGY & PETROLEUM PRODUCTS PRICE INDEX (CANADA) P a g e
12 FINANCIAL INDICATORS Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual CONVENTIONAL MORTGAGE (5-YEAR POSTED RATE %) AVG. MONTHLY EXCHANGE RATE ($US in $C) Source: Bank of Canada DEVELOPMENT - ALBERTA BUILDING PERMIT VALUES (X$000) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual NON-RESIDENTIAL , , , , , , , , , , , ,562 6,270, , , , , , , , ,224 1,128, , , ,361 5,844, , , ,353 1,067,781 RESIDENTIAL , , , , , , , , ,707 1,915, , ,886 7,929, , , , , , , , , , , , ,271 8,400, , , ,329 1,935,913 TOTAL HOUSING STARTS - URBAN AREAS ,453 1,585 1,557 2,201 1,722 1,947 2,150 1,653 2,339 2,064 2,043 1,963 22, ,102 1,926 2,520 2,546 2,580 2,613 2,846 2,187 2,393 2,374 2,774 1,687 27, ,628 1,693 1,892 2,253 7,492 Source: CMHC 12 P a g e
13 ECONOMIC INDICATORS Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual INTERNATIONAL EXPORTS FROM ALTA ($000,000) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,019 MANUFACTURING SHIPMENTS FROM ALTA ($000,000 SA) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,462 RETAIL SALES - ALTA ($000,000 SA) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,220 DRILLING RIGS ACTIVE - ALBERTA Source: CAODC CAPITAL SPENDING, OIL & GAS EXTRACTION - CANADA ($000,000) ,812 16,948 19,569 22,155 78, ,590 12,404 13,202 11,433 52, ,108 8,536 9,582 9,812 38, ,266 9,840 10,762 12,121 42,989 ALBERTA ACTIVITY INDEX (AAX - yr/yr % Chng.) % -5.3% -6.2% -4.8% -7.4% -6.5% -5.7% -4.4% -3.5% -2.5% -0.6% 1.1% -4.4% % 2.3% 5.6% 4.7% 9.8% 7.6% 6.4% 5.4% 4.9% 5.4% 3.9% 3.6% 5.1% % 2.5% 3.4% Source: Alta Treasury Board & Finance 13 P a g e
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