Industry Trends Watch

Transcription

1 Costing Trends - Alberta Asphalt Cement (Edmonton Rack $C/t) According to local industry sources, the Edmonton rack price for asphalt cement remained unchanged mo/mo in February at $565 per tonne. Expect prices to move higher going forward as seasonal demand improves. Diesel Fuel (Retail price $/litre) Diesel fuel retailed on average in Calgary for $1.249 per litre during February, up from $1.236 in January. According to NRCan, diesel prices in Edmonton averaged $1.225 in February compared with $1.216 a month earlier. Inflation (CPI) Alberta s consumer price index increased by 2.2% from a year prior in February, up from a 1.5% gain in January. This time last year, Alberta s annual inflation rate was 2.2%. 1 P a g e

2 Construction Union Wage Rates Construction union wage rates in both Calgary & Edmonton were unchanged yr/yr in February. The composite construction union wage rate has remained steady in both cities since Nov P a g e

3 Labour Market Conditions Employment The number of people working (SA) in Alberta increased by 2,300 jobs mo/mo in February. Full-time job losses were offset by part-time gains. Total employment was up year-over-year in February by 45,000 jobs. Unemployment Rate The unemployment rate in Alta declined to 6.7% in February from 7% (S/A) in January. Unemployment has not been below 7% since Oct The jobless rate in February 2017 was 8.2%. Avg. Weekly Earnings Statistics Canada`s average weekly earnings (AWE seasonally adjusted) in Alberta increased in December by 1.2% yearover-year to $1, AWE levels in 2017 were up on average by 0.9% from all of P a g e

4 Employment Insurance Claimants The number of EI recipients (seasonally adjusted) in Alberta was down in January by 29% from the first month of Month-over-month, EI beneficiaries in January were largely unchanged from December. Alberta Net Migration Total net migration into Alberta from all sources increased during the fourth quarter by 92% from the last 3 months of 2016 to 5,599 newcomers. A turnaround in the outflow of persons to other provinces contributed to the highest fourth quarter total net migration numbers in four years. 4 P a g e

5 Costing Trends - Canada Lumber & Wood Product Prices Canadian lumber and wood product prices increased 4.7% year-over-year in January. According to the Statistics Canada Industrial Products price index, this index was up by 1.5% at the beginning of 2017 compared with a year earlier. Fabricated Metal Product & Construction Material Prices The Canadian price index for construction materials and fabricated metal products increased in January by 2.8% from year-ago levels. During the first month of 2017, this StatCan index was up 2% over January Energy & Petroleum Products Prices The energy and petroleum products price index in Canada was up in January by 12% from the beginning of The index was up in January of last year by 22.7% over the first month of P a g e

6 Financial Indicators Mortgage rates The 5-year posted (qualifying) mortgage rate stood at 5.14% in February, unchanged from January. The qualifying rate was 4.64% in February Exchange Rate ($US in $C) The US dollar averaged $1.26 against the Canadian currency in February, up slightly from $1.24 a month prior. In February of last year, on average, $1 US was pegged at $1.31 Canadian. 6 P a g e

7 Development Building Permit Values The total value of building permits (unadjusted) issued in Alberta decreased in January by 7% from a year prior to $794.7 million. Residential intentions were up by 17% to $504.5 million but non-residential permit values fell by 27% to $290.2 million. Housing Starts Housing starts in Alberta s cities of 10,000+ decreased in February by 12% yearover-year to 1,693 units. For the year-to-date, total starts were up 9.7% from the first 2 months of 2017 to 3,321 units. 7 P a g e

8 Economic Indicators International Exports Alberta Alberta s exports ($ value) increased in January by 18.2% from a year earlier to $10.1 billion. The value of energy product exports was at the highest level since October Manufacturing Shipments Alberta Alberta s manufacturing shipments (seasonally adjusted) increased in January by 11.3% year-overyear to $6.3 billion. This was the best month for manufacturing sales since December Retail Sales Alberta Retail sales in Alberta (seasonally adjusted) increased in January by 0.5% mo/mo to $6.8 billion. Compared with the first month of 2017, sales in January were up 2.1%. 8 P a g e

9 Drilling Rig Activity - Alberta The CAODC reported 216 drilling rigs active in Alberta on average during February, up 15% yr/yr. After 2 months in 2018, the average rig drilling count has increased 6.7% over January and February Capital Spending Oil & Gas Extraction Industries - Canada Capital expenditures for the oil and gas extraction industries in Canada increased 23% yr/yr in the 4 th quarter to $12.1 billion. For the year, spending increased 13% from all of 2016 to just under $43 billion. Alberta Activities Index (AAX) The Alberta Activities Index (AAX) was up in December by 3.6% yr/yr. The AAX was up on average by 5.1% during 2017 compared with a 4.4% decline in the previous year. 9 P a g e

10 COSTING TRENDS - ALBERTA Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual ASPHALT CEMENT - EDMONTON RACK (C$/T) Industry Sources AVERAGE RETAIL PRICE - DIESEL FUEL ($/litre) - CALGARY AVERAGE RETAIL PRICE - DIESEL FUEL ($/litre) - EDMONTON Source: NRCan INFLATION RATE (CPI Composite - All Items - yr/yr % Chng.) % 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.3% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 1.0% 1.1% % 2.2% 1.3% 1.7% 1.2% 0.4% 1.0% 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% % 2.2% 1.8% CONSTRUCTION UNION WAGE RATES (Composite Index - yr/yr % Chng.) - CALGARY* % 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% % 0.0% 0.0% CONSTRUCTION UNION WAGE RATES (Composite Index - yr/yr % Chng.) - EDMONTON* % 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% % 0.0% 0.0% * inc. Supplementary payments APARTMENT BUILDING CONSTRUCTION PRICE INDEX (yr/yr % Chng.) - CALGARY % 0.1% -0.8% -1.3% -0.5% % -2.0% -1.2% 0.2% -0.8% % 1.5% 2.0% 1.6% 1.2% APARTMENT BUILDING CONSTRUCTION PRICE INDEX (yr/yr % Chng.) - EDMONTON % 0.1% -1.1% -1.3% -0.6% % -1.8% -0.7% 0.0% -0.6% % 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 0.6% NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONSTRUCTION PRICE INDEX (yr/yr % Chng.) - CALGARY % 1.8% 1.0% 0.7% 1.3% % 0.0% -1.2% -1.4% -0.6% % 1.2% 1.8% 1.5% 1.0% NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONSTRUCTION PRICE INDEX (yr/yr % Chng.) - EDMONTON % -0.1% -1.6% -1.4% -0.8% % -4.2% -2.6% -2.6% -2.9% % 0.2% 0.3% 0.8% 0.0% 10 P a g e

11 ALBERTA LABOUR MARKET CONDITIONS Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual EMPLOYMENT (X,000 SA) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,315.7 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (% SA) AVG. WEEKLY EARNINGS ($ SA) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,129.2 EI CLAIMANTS ,980 67,110 69,700 70,780 79,680 80, ,950 91,640 90,850 93,370 95,990 95,490 83, ,320 84,680 81,580 77,670 73,630 70,680 69,590 66,470 63,370 62,350 63,820 63,480 72, ,510 63,510 TOTAL NET MIGRATION (ALBERTA - QUARTERLY) ,286 9,571 7,932 5,016 29, ,288 6,713 5,419 2,916 22, ,258 5,486 11,106 5,599 26,449 SA=seasonally adjusted COSTING TRENDS - CANADA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCT PRICE INDEXES Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual LUMBER & OTHER WOOD PRODUCTS PRICE INDEX (CANADA) FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS & CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS PRICE INDEX (CANADA) ENERGY & PETROLEUM PRODUCTS PRICE INDEX (CANADA) P a g e

12 FINANCIAL INDICATORS Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual CONVENTIONAL MORTGAGE (5-YEAR POSTED RATE %) AVG. MONTHLY EXCHANGE RATE ($US in $C) Source: Bank of Canada DEVELOPMENT - ALBERTA BUILDING PERMIT VALUES (X$000) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual NON-RESIDENTIAL , , , , , , , , , , , ,562 6,270, , , , , , , , ,024 1,128, , , ,361 5,837, , ,456 RESIDENTIAL , , , , , , , , ,707 1,915, , ,886 7,929, , , , , , , , , , , , ,271 8,398, , ,195 TOTAL HOUSING STARTS - URBAN AREAS ,453 1,585 1,557 2,201 1,722 1,947 2,150 1,653 2,339 2,064 2,043 1,963 22, ,102 1,926 2,520 2,540 2,580 2,613 2,846 2,187 2,393 2,374 2,774 1,687 27, ,628 1,693 3,321 Source: CMHC 12 P a g e

13 ECONOMIC INDICATORS Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual INTERNATIONAL EXPORTS FROM ALTA ($000,000) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,072 MANUFACTURING SHIPMENTS FROM ALTA ($000,000 SA) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,289 RETAIL SALES - ALTA ($000,000 SA) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,796 DRILLING RIGS ACTIVE - ALBERTA Source: CAODC CAPITAL SPENDING, OIL & GAS EXTRACTION - CANADA ($000,000) ,812 16,948 19,569 22,155 78, ,590 12,404 13,202 11,433 52, ,108 8,536 9,582 9,812 38, ,266 9,840 10,762 12,121 42,989 ALBERTA ACTIVITY INDEX (AAX - yr/yr % Chng.) % 0.3% -0.4% -2.2% -2.8% -3.3% -3.3% -3.2% -4.7% -6.0% -5.0% -6.5% -2.9% % -5.3% -6.2% -4.8% -7.4% -6.5% -5.7% -4.4% -3.5% -2.5% -0.6% 1.1% -4.4% % 2.3% 5.6% 4.7% 9.8% 7.6% 6.4% 5.4% 4.8% 5.3% 3.7% 3.6% 5.1% Source: Alta Treasury Board & Finance 13 P a g e