Economic Activity Index ( GDB-EAI ) For the month of May 2013 G O V E R N M E N T D E V E L O P M E N T B A N K F O R P U E R T O R I C O

Transcription

1 Economic Activity Index ( GDB-EAI ) For the month of May 2013

2 General Commentary May 2013 GDB-EAI for the month of May registered a 3.4% year-over-year ( YOY ) reduction May 2013 EAI was 126.7, a 3.4% reduction compared to May Cumulative value for year-todate ( YTD ) FY 2013 reflected a reduction of 0.5% with respect to the same period in FY Gasoline consumption* for the month of May was 99.4 million gallons. Cumulative value for FY 2013 was million, 2.0% above the same period during FY Total non-farm payroll employment for May 2013 was 910,600, a YOY reduction of 2.7%. Average employment for YTD FY 2013 is reflecting a decrease of 0.4%. Electric power generation totaled 1,844.6 million kwh, a YOY decrease of 3.1%. Cumulative level was slightly less compared to same period during FY Cement sales totaled 1.40 million bags, registering a YOY reduction of 24.0%. Cumulative cement sales were 10.3% below the same period during FY * Estimated monthly gasoline consumption is derived from the Treasury Department s monthly gasoline excise tax collections and the Highways and Transportation Authority reports. The irregularity in the monthly collections comes from the inventory and purchases fluctuations from major gasoline importers. As a result, the estimate used by GDB does not necessarily reflect actual monthly consumption by individuals. 2

3 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Index (January 1980 = 100) GDB-EAI for the month of May 2013 reflected a year-over-year reduction of 3.4% GDB Economic Activity Index % 135 8% % -5.3% -4.1% -3.1% -2.8% -3.8% -4.6% -4.2% -3.5% -2.4% -2.6% -3.1% -2.4% -2.2% -2.2% -2.8% -2.7% -1.9% -1.7% -2.3% -1.9% -1.4% 0.1% 1.0% 1.6% 1.6% 1.0% 1.2% 1.1% 1.6% 1.9% 2.6% 2.2% 2.0% 1.0% -0.3% -1.8% -3.0% -3.0% -3.5% -3.4% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Percent 105-8% % 3

4 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 GDB Economic Activity Index Components 1, Total Non-Farm Payroll Employment* (Thousands of jobs) Gasoline Consumption* (Millions of gallons) 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 Cement Sales (Cement Bags sold, in thousands) 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Electric Power Generation (Millions of kwh) Sources: BLS, GDB, HTA, Treasury and PREPA * Not seasonally adjusted. *Estimated monthly gasoline consumption is derived from the Treasury Department s monthly gasoline excise tax collections and the Highways and Transportation Authority reports. 4

5 Description of the GDB-Economic Activity Index 5

6 GNP54 (Million of dollars at 1954 prices) GNP54 Annual Growth Description of the GDB-EAI The GDB-EAI is a coincident index for the economic activity of Puerto Rico. It is highly correlated to the Puerto Rico s real GNP not only on the levels, but also on the annual growth rates. This index was developed following the methodology similar to that used by The Conference Board in their coincident index. This methodology follows a standard procedure to adjust the data for seasonality and volatility factors. Real Gross National Product as a function of the GDB Economic Activity Index (Relationship on the levels) 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 Source: GBD y = 49.55x R² = GDBEAI (January 1980 = 100) 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% Real Gross National Product as a function of the GDB Economic Activity Index (Relationship on the growth rates) y = 0.741x R² = % -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% GDBEAI Annual Growth 6

7 GDB-EAI Highlights and Composition GDB Economic Activity Index Highlights Advantages of the GDB-EAI: Readily available Highly correlated to Puerto Rico s real GNP Reliable tool to monitor actual trend of Puerto Rico economy The GDB-EAI is made up of 4 indicators: Total Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey/ Thousand of employees) Total Electric Power Generation (Millions of KWH) Cement Sales (Millions of bags) Gas Consumption (Millions of gallons) 7

8 Disclaimer The GDB-EAI and its indicators are subject to revisions. While the information comprising the GDB EAI has been obtained from sources GDB believes to be reliable, GDB is not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for the results obtained from the use of this information. 8