Executive Board Meeting. 21 September 2011

Transcription

1 Executive Board Meeting September

2 Global economic growth GDP growth. Four-quarter change. Q Q - US Euro area Emerging economies¹) Emerging Asian economies¹) ) GDP-weighted (PPP) Sources: IMF, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

3 Emerging markets Per cent. Q Q GDP growth Four-quarter change Industrial production -month change. -month average. Retail -month change in volume. -month average. Asia Latin-America Central and Eastern Europe Sources: IMF, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

4 Industrial production in the US and euro area Industrial production Index. =. Seasonally adjusted January August ) ISM and PMI Diffusion index. January August US Euro area ) Euro area to July 9 8 ISM manufacturing US PMI manufacturing euro area 7 9 Source: Thomson Reuters

5 GDP growth projections for the US Per cent. March September JP Morgan.. JP Morgan.. Consensus Forecasts Morgan Stanley IMF (WEO) Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep.. Consensus Forecasts Morgan Stanley IMF (WEO) Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep. Sources: IMF, Consensus Economics, J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley

6 Unemployment As a percentage of the labour force. Seasonally adjusted. January 7 July ) US Spain Germany Euro area Greece Italy Jan-7 Jul-8 Jan- Jul- Jan-7 Jul-8 Jan- Jul- ) Figures to August for US and to March for Greece Source: Thomson Reuters

7 Commodity prices Index. January = January 9 September Oil price (Brent Blend) USD/barrel January 9 September 7 Aluminium Copper Wheat Cotton Source: Thomson Reuters 7

8 Developments in financial markets January 7 9 September Yield spread over German -year government bonds Percentage points. Portugal Spain Ireland Greece Italy Belgium Equities Index. January 7 =. US Norway Europe Money market premium -month maturity. -day moving average. Percentage points. USD (LIBOR) EURIBOR NIBOR Implied volatility in equity markets Europe Average 999- USA (VIX) Europa (VSTOXX) US Average Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank 8

9 Yield on -year government bonds Per cent. January 7 9 September.... US Germany UK Norway..... Jan-7 Oct-7 Jul-8 Apr-9 Jan- Oct- Jul-. Source: Bloomberg 9

10 CDS prices in Europe Basis points. January 7 9 September Itraxx sovereign Itraxx corporate Itraxx financial jan. 7 jan. 8 jan. 9 jan. jan. Source: Bloomberg

11 Banks funding costs - enterprises Funding costs for Norwegian banks. Per cent. January 7 9 September NIBOR (-month effective) Key policy rate Credit risk premium on bank bonds (-year bonds) Jan-7 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul Sources: DnB NOR Markets and Norges Bank

12 Key policy rate, money market rate ) and weighted bank lending rates ) Per cent. July 7 9 September Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- ) -month NIBOR(effective) ) Average interest rates on new mortgage loans of NOK m, floating rate, within % of purchase price. Figure for the largest banks, weighted by market shares. Bank lending rate (new residential mortgages) Money market rate Key policy rate -yr spread, covered bonds (-month fixed rate) Sources: Norsk familieøkonomi AS, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank.

13 Expected key rates ) Per cent. July 8 December ) US MPR / Euro area³) UK 9 September Jul-8 Jul-9 Jul- Jul- Jul- Jul- Jul- ) Expected interest rates are based on Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) rates ) Daily figures from July 8 and quarterly figures as at September ) EONIA in euro area Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

14 Import-weighted exchange rate (-) ) Daily (historical) and quarterly figures (projected) ). January June I- Average Q-to-date MPR / Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- ) A rising curve denotes a stronger krone exchange rate ) Projections Q Q from MPR / 9 Source: Norges Bank

15 Exchange rate, Euro (EURNOK) September 9 September Sep - Sep 8 - Sep - Sep - Sep - Sep 9 -Sep Source: Thomson Reuters

16 GDP mainland Norway Baseline scenario and projections from SAM ) with fan chart from MPR / and SAM 9 September. Four-quarter change. Per cent. Q Q ) SAM 9 September MPR / SAM in MPR / Mar- Sep- Mar- Sep- Mar- ) System for averaging short-term models ) Projections for Q Q (dashed lines) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

17 Households Index of household consumption of goods Volume. Index. Seasonally adjusted. January 7 July. TNS Gallup trend indicator for households Net figures. Seasonally adjusted. 99 Q Q Jan-7 Jul-8 Jan- Jul Sources: Statistics Norway and TNS Gallup 7

18 Labour market Registered unemployment As a percentage of the labour force. Seasonally adjusted. January 7 August Employment (LFS) In s. Seasonally adjusted. January 7 June Jan-7 Jan-9 Jan- Jan-7 Jan-9 Jan- Source: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV), Statistics Norway 8

19 Credit growth and property prices -month change. Per cent. January August Households Non-financial corporations - - Credit growth¹) House prices²) - 8 ) Households; C, Enterprises; C Mainland Norway ) House prices to August, C to July ) Semi-annual figures to Q. C to June Credit growth¹) Selling prices commercial real estate³) Sources: Statistics Norway, OPAK, real estate sector (NEF, EFF, FINN.no and ECON Pöyry), OBOS and Norges Bank 9

20 Consumer prices -month change. Per cent. January 8 March ) CPI CPI-ATE ²) CPIXE ³) 8 9 ) Projections (dashed lines) from MPR / ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. Real-time figures. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/8 and /9 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

21 Executive Board Meeting September