Executive Board meeting. 31 October 2012

Transcription

1 Executive Board meeting October

2 % % 7% 9% Baseline scenarios with fan charts in MPR / Percent MPR / MPR / Output gap 9 CPIXE Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

3 Key policy rate Percent 7 /7 / / / MPR / MPR / MPR / 7 7. Dec. /9 /9 / / / / /9 / / / / / 9 Source: Norges Bank

4 Factors behind changes in the interest rate forecast From MPR / to MPR /. Accumulated contribution. Percentage points Exchange rate Prices Interest rates abroad Money market premiums Lending margins Change in the interest rate forecast Q Q Q Q Q Q Q - Source: Norges Bank

5 Quarterly GDP growth trading partners Historical numbers and projections given at different points in time. Percent - - Projections MPR / Projections MPR / Projections MPR / Projections MPR / Projections MPR / Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

6 Manufacturing PMIs Diffusion index Growth in world trade and indicator of global exports 7 7 World trade (left-hand scale)¹) 7 Global PMI new export orders (right-hand scale)²) US Euro area Sweden China UK ) World trade: Tree-month moving average. Past three months over previous three months. Percent ) Global PMI export orders: Diffusion index centred around Source: Thomson Reuters

7 Oil price and prices for Norwegian petroleum exports¹ ) USD/barrel Commodity prices Index. January = 7 Aluminium Wheat Soybeans Copper Maize 7 Oil price (Brent Blend) Futures Futures at MPR / Petroleum price 7 7 ) Weighted average of Norwegian crude oil and gas exports Sources: Thomson Reuters, Statistics Norway, CME Group and Norges Bank 7

8 Actual and expected key rates ) Percent USA Euro area²) UK MPR / 9 October 9 ) Daily figures from January and quarterly figures from Q. Expected key rates are based on Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates ) ) EONIA for euro area from Q Sources: Bloomberg og Norges Bank

9 Yields on -year government bonds Percent 7 Spain Germany Italy UK 7 -month money market premiums Percentage points EURIBOR Nibor USD (Libor) 9 9 Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank 9

10 Interest rates Percent Key policy rate Key policy rate Money market rate Risk premium -year covered bonds Bank lending rate (new residential mortgages)¹) Money market rate Risk premium -year bank bonds Average corporate lending rate Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- ) Nominal interest rate on new residential mortgages of NOK m within % of purchase price Sources: DNB Markets, Norsk familieøkonomi, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

11 Premium in the Norwegian money market Percentage points. Projections MPR / Projections MPR /... 9 ) Norges Bank's projections from Q Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

12 Three-month money market rates in the baseline scenario Percent 7 7 MPR / MPR / 9 Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

13 Import-weighted exchange rate index (I-) ) I- Projections MPR / Projections MPR / 9 ) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate Source: Norges Bank

14 GDP for mainland Norway and selected trading partners Index. = Norway Euro area US Trading partners Sweden 9 9 Source: Norges Bank

15 GDP mainland Norway per capita Annual growth. Percent ) GDP growth Average growth ) Projections for - Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

16 Norges Bank s regional network Production growth past three months and expected growth next six months. Index ),) - - Domestically oriented manufacturing Suppliers to the petroleum industry Export industry Construction ) The index ranges from - to +, where - indicates a sharp fall and + indicates strong growth. ) The latest observation in the regional network is September Source: Norges Bank

17 Household consumption and real disposable income Annual growth. Percent Household consumption Projections MPR / Household real disposable income¹) 7 9 ) Excluding dividend income Sources: Statistic Norway and Norges Bank 7

18 Growth in house prices and credit -month change. Percent ) Credit growth House prices ) House prices up to and including September and credit growth up to and including August. - Sources: Statistics Norway, the real estate sector (NEF, EFF, Finn.no and ECON Pöyry) and Norges Bank

19 Difference between number of housing completions and increase in households ), and population growth ) Annual figures Difference between number of housing completions and increase in households, left-hand scale Population growth, right-hand scale ) Projections for og ) Projections for Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 9

20 Annual wage growth ) and LFS unemployment ) Percent Annual wage growth Unemployment ) Including estimated cost of increase in number of vacation days and introduction of mandatory occupational pensions Sources: Statistics Norway, Technical Reporting Committee on ) Projections for (broken lines) Income Settlements and Norges Bank

21 Consumer prices -month change. Percent 7. CPI % trimmed mean 7. CPI-ATE¹) CPIXE²) CPIM³) ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. Real time figures. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/ and /9 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank ) Model-based indicator of underlying inflation. See Norges Bank Economic Commentaries / -.

22 Structural non-oil deficit and expected real return on the Government Pension Fund Global Constant prices. In billions of NOK. ) 9 Structural, non-oil deficit Expected real return ) Projections for Sources: Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank

23 Projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario Percent % % 7 MPR / MPR / 7 7% 9% Interval % - % 9 Source: Norges Bank

24 Executive Board meeting October