Chart 1.1 Unemployment rate. Percent of labour force. Seasonally adjusted. January 2008 May 2013

Transcription

1 Chart. Unemployment rate. Percent of labour force. Seasonally adjusted. January 8 May Euro area US Source: Thomson Reuters

2 Chart. GDP for trading partners in MPR / ) and MPR /. Four quarter change. Percent. 8 Q Q MPR / MPR / 8 9 ) Shows what growth projections in MPR / would have been with the revised trading partner aggregate Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

3 Chart. Money market rates for trading partners ) in MPR / and MPR /. Percent. 8 Q Q MPR / MPR / 8 9 ) Broken red and blue lines show estimated forward rates for trading partners at 8 March and June. Forward rates are based on Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates Source: Norges Bank

4 Chart. Import weighted exchange rate index (I ). ) January June I Projection MPR / 9 9 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan ) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate Source: Norges Bank

5 Chart. Mortgage lending rates ) and funding costs. Percent. January June Key policy rate Difference between money market rate and key policy rate Risk premium on year covered bonds Estimated cost of mortgage financing ) Residential mortgage rate ) Projected residential mortgage rate ) Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan ) The lending rate on lines of credit secured on dwellings provided by all banks and mortgage companies in Norway ) Estimated using weighted interest rates on holdings of covered bonds and weighted deposit rates ) Credit lines Sources: DNB Markets, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

6 Chart. Projected output gap ) in MPR / and MPR /. Percent. 8 Q Q MPR / MPR / 8 9 ) The output gap measures the percentage deviation between GDP mainland Norway and projected potential GDP mainland Norway Source: Norges Bank

7 Chart.7 Consumer prices. month change. Percent. January May CPI % trimmed mean CPI ATE ) CPIXE ) CPIM ) ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. Real time figures. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/8 and /9. From June, the method for calculating CPIXE will be changed. For more information see bank.no ) Model based indicator of underlying inflation. See Norges Bank Economic Commentaries / Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank.

8 Chart.8 Inflation. year moving average ) and variation ) in CPI. Percent. 98 Variation Inflation target CPI ) The moving average is calculated years back ) The band around the CPI is the variation in the CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products in the average period, measured by +/ one standard deviation Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

9 Chart.9 Expected consumer price inflation and years ahead. ) Percent. Q Q Expected inflation years ahead Expected inflation years ahead ) Average of expectations of employer/employee organisations and economists in the financial industry and academia Sources: TNS Gallup and Opinion Perduco

10 Chart. CPI ATE ) by supplier sector. Four quarter change. Percent. 8 Q Q CPI ATE Domestically produced goods and services excluding house rent Imported consumer goods House rent 8 9 ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

11 Chart.a Projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario with probability distribution. Percent. 8 Q Q 7 % % 7% 9% Source: Norges Bank

12 Chart.b Projected output gap ) in the baseline scenario with probability distribution. Percent. 8 Q Q % % 7% 9% 8 9 ) The output gap measures the percentage deviation between mainland GDP and projected potential mainland GDP Source: Norges Bank

13 Chart.c Projected CPI in the baseline scenario with probability distribution. Four quarter change. Percent. 8 Q Q % % 7% 9% 8 9 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

14 Chart.d Projected CPI ATE ) in the baseline scenario with probability distribution. Four quarter change. Percent. 8 Q Q % % 7% 9% 8 9 ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

15 Chart. Interval for the key policy rate at the end of each strategy period, actual developments and projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario. Percent. January 8 December /8 /8 MPR / MPR / MPR / 7 /7 /8 / 7 Dec 8 / // / /9 /9 /9 / / / / / / 8 Source: Norges Bank

16 Chart. Projected inflation ) and output gap in the baseline scenario. Percent. 8 Q Q Output gap (left hand scale) CPI ATE (right hand scale) 8 9 ) CPI ATE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

17 Chart. Household credit growth ) and house prices. Four quarter change. Percent. Q Q House prices Credit growth 8 ) From January the Norwegian standard for institutional sector grouping was changed. For credit growth this implies a break in the series from March Sources: Statistics Norway, the real estate sector (NEF, EFF, Finn.no and ECON Pöyry) and Norges Bank

18 Chart. Household debt ratio ) and interest burden. ) Percent. 988 Q Q 8 Interest burden (left hand scale) Debt ratio (right hand scale) ) Loan debt as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated reinvested dividend income for and redemption/reduction of equity capital for Q ) Interest expenses after tax as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated reinvested dividend income for and redemption/reduction of equity capital for plus interest expenses Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

19 Chart. Three month money market rate in the baseline scenario ) and estimated forward rates. ) Percent. 8 Q Q 8 7 Estimated forward rates MPR / Estimated forward rates MPR / Money market rate in the baseline scenario MPR / Money market rate in the baseline scenario MPR / ) Key policy rate in the baseline scenario plus premiums in the Norwegian money market. The calculations are based on the assumption that announced interest rate changes are priced into the money market. ) Forward rates are based on money market rates and interest rate swaps. The blue and red bands show the highest and lowest forward rates in the period May June and February 8 March Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

20 Chart.7 Projected key policy rate, three month money market rate ) and interest rate on loans to households ) in the baseline scenario. Percent. Q Q Key policy rate month money market rate Lending rate, households ) Key policy rate in the baseline scenario plus premiums in the Norwegian money market. The calculations are based on the announced interest rate changes are priced into the money market ) Average interest rate on all loans to households from banks and mortage companies Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

21 Chart.8 Three month money market rate differential between Norway ) and trading partners and the import weighted exchange rate index (I ). ) January December I (left hand scale) month rate differential (right hand scale) 8 ) Key policy rate in the baseline scenario plus premiums in the Norwegian money market. The calculations are based on the assumption that announced interest rate changes are priced into the money market ) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

22 Chart.9 Projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario and strategy interval with probability distribution. Percent. 8 Q Q 7 % % 7% 9% Source: Norges Bank

23 Chart. Key policy rate and calculations based on simple monetary policy rules. ) Percent. 8 Q Q Key policy rate in the baseline scenario Rule with external interest rates Growth rule Model robust interest rate rule Taylor rule ) The calculations are based on Norges Bank s projections for the output gap, growth gap, consumer prices (CPIXE) and month money market rates among trading partners. To ensure comparability with the key policy rate, the simple rules are adjusted for risk premiums in month money market rates Source: Norges Bank

24 Chart. Key policy rate and interest rate developments that follow from Norges Bank s average pattern of interest rate setting. ) Percent. Q Q percent confidence interval Key policy rate in baseline scenario ) Interest rate movements are explained by developments in inflation, mainland GDP growth, wage growth and month money market rates among trading partners. The equation is estimated over the period 999 Q Q. See Staff Memo /8 for further discussion Source: Norges Bank

25 Chart.a Key policy rate. Percent. 8 Q Q Criterion Criteria & Criteria,& 8 9 Source: Norges Bank

26 Chart.b Output gap. Percent. 8 Q Q Criterion Criteria & Criteria,& 8 9 Source: Norges Bank

27 Chart.c CPI ATE. ) Four quarter change. Percent. 8 Q Q Criterion Criteria & Criteria,& 8 9 ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

28 Chart. Key policy rate in the baseline scenario in MPR / with probability distribution and key policy rate in the baseline scenario in MPR / (red line). Percent. 8 Q Q 7 % % 7% 9% Source: Norges Bank

29 Chart. Factors behind changes in the interest rate forecast since MPR /. Accumulated contribution. Percentage points. Q Q Change in the interest rate forecast Prices Capacity utilisation Growth abroad Lending margins Exchange rate Costs Money market premiums Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Norges Bank

30 Chart. Total credit ) mainland Norway as a percentage of mainland GDP. Percent. 97 Q Q Crises Average (97 Q Q) Credit / GDP Trend²) ) Sum of C non-financial enterprises in mainland Norway (total economy before 99) and C households ) One-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter with recursive projections. Lambda = Sources: Statistics Norway, IMF and Norges Bank

31 Chart. House prices ) relative to disposable income ). Index. 998 Q =. 978 Q Q Crises Average (978 Q Q) House prices / disposable income Trend³) ) Quarterly figures before 99 are calculated by linear interpolation of annual figures ) Adjusted for estimated reinvested dividend income for and redemption/reduction of equity capital for Q Q ) One-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter with recursive projections. Lambda = Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF), Eiendomsmeglerforetakenes Forening (EFF), Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi and Norges Bank

32 Chart. Real commercial property prices. ) Index. 998 =. 98 Q Q Crises Average (98 Q Q) Real commercial property prices Trend²) ) Estimated market prices for office premises in Oslo deflated by the GDP deflator for mainland Norway ) One-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter with recursive projections. Lambda = Sources: Dagens Næringsliv, OPAK, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

33 Chart. Banks' ) wholesale funding as a percentage of total assets. ) Percent. 97 Q Q Crises Average (97 Q Q) Wholesale funding / total assets Trend³) ) All banks and covered bond mortgage companies in Norway, excluding branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks in Norway ) Quarterly figures before 989 are calculated by linear interpolation of annual figures ) One-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter with recursive projections. Lambda = Source: Norges Bank

34 Chart. Debt of households and non-financial enterprises, and mainland GDP. Four-quarter growth. Percent. Q Q GDP growth mainland Norway Growth in debt, households (C) Growth in total debt, non-financial enterprises (C)¹) ) Sum of C non-financial enterprises and foreign debt of non-financial enterprises. Mainland Norway Sources: Statistics Norway, IMF and Norges Bank

35 Chart. Household debt to disposable income ratio ). Percent. Q Q Four-quarter growth in disposable income (left-hand scale) Four-quarter growth in household debt (left-hand scale) Ratio (right-hand scale) 8 ) Loan debt as a percentage of disposable income, adjusted for estimated reinvested dividend income for and redemption/reduction of equity capital for Q Q Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

36 Chart.7 House prices and disposable income ). Four-quarter change. Percent. Q Q Growth in disposable income Change in house prices - 8 ) Adjusted for estimated reinvested dividend income for and redemption/reduction of equity capital for Q Q Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF), Eiendomsmeglerforetakenes Forening (EFF), Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi and Norges Bank -

37 Chart.8 Investment plans ) and credit demand ) from non-financial enterprises, and banks' credit standards for non-financial enterprises. 7 Q Q Credit demand (left-hand scale) Credit standards (left-hand scale) Investment plans (right-hand scale),, -, - -, ) Enterprises in Norges Bank's regional network. Expected change in investments over the next months. The index ranges from - to +, where - indicates a sharp fall and + indicates strong growth ) The scale ranges from - percent to + percent, where - indicates a substantial tightening of credit standards/reduction in credit demand, while + indicates a substantial easing of credit standards/increase in credit demand Source: Norges Bank -

38 Chart.9 Domestic credit to Norwegian non-financial enterprises (C). Stocks. In billions of NOK. January 99 April 8 Other sources Notes Bonds Banks and mortgage companies¹) ) Both Eksportfinans and Export Credit Norway are classified as mortgage companies in this chart, while Export Credit Norway is classified as "other sources" in Statistics Norway's statistics. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

39 Chart. Bond issuance by Norwegian non-financial enterprises in domestic and foreign bond markets. In billions of NOK. ) Foreign markets Norwegian market ) is based on observations to June Sources: Stamdata and Bloomberg

40 Chart. Vacant space ) and rental prices ) for office premises. Percent and NOK per square meter. First half of first half of Rental prices, high standard in central Oslo (left-hand scale) Rental prices, good standard in central Oslo (left-hand scale) Rental prices, older inefficient premises in Oslo (left-hand scale) Vacant space in Oslo, Asker and Bærum (right-hand scale) 8 8 ) Square meters vacant space as a percentage of total square meters. To March ) Rental prices at constant prices. To June Sources: OPAK, Dagens Næringsliv, DNB Næringsmegling and Statistics Norway

41 Chart. Common Equity Tier capital ratio requirements in the new regulatory framework. Percent. June July Maximum countercyclical buffer Buffer for systemically important banks Systemic risk buffer Conservation buffer Minimum requirement,,,,, 8,,,, 8 9,,,,,,,,, EBA's temporary requirement July July July July Sources: Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank

42 Common Equity Tier capital ratio Chart. Banking groups' ) Common Equity Tier capital ratios. Percent. Total assets. In billions of NOK. At December IRB banks (with transitional rule) Standardised approach banks 9 Capital requirement from July Capital requirement from July for systemically important banks + countercyclical buffer of and. pp Total assets (logarithmic scale) ) Banking groups with total assets in excess of NOK bn, excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway Sources: Finanstilsynet, banking groups' income statements and Norges Bank

43 Chart.8 Share of households with a debt to disposable income ratio of over percent, and their share of total income after taxes and debt. Percent. At year end. 987 Share of debt Share of income Share of households Sources: Statistics Norway (tax assessment data) and Norges Bank

44 Chart.9 Distribution of household debt by different age groups. ) Percent. At year end ) The under- and over-7 age groups are not included in the chart Sources: Statistics Norway (tax assessment data) and Norges Bank

45 Chart. Financial assets ) as a share of debt for households with varying debt to income ratios. Percent. At year-end Debt to income ratio below Debt to income ratio Debt to income ratio over ) According to tax assessments, excluding insurance claims Sources: Statistics Norway (tax assessment data) and Norges Bank

46 Chart. Share of households with a margin ) of less than one month's income, and their share of total income after taxes and debt. Percent. At year-end. 987 Share of debt Share of income Share of households ) Households' margin is calculated as disposable annual income less standard consumption by type of household as calculated by the National Institute for Consumer Research (Sifo). Housing consumption according to own calculations based on Statistics Norway's Survey of consumer expenditure and interest payments are also deducted. Sources: Statistics Norway (tax assessment data), Sifo and Norges Bank

47 Chart. Total credit ) mainland Norway as a percentage of mainland GDP. Highest and lowest gap values. Percentage points. 97 Q Q Variation year rolling average Augmented HP filter One sided HP filter Crises ) Sum of C non financial enterprises in mainland Norway (total economy before 99) and C households Sources: Statistics Norway, IMF and Norges Bank

48 Chart. House prices ) relative to disposable income ). Highest and lowest gap values. Percent. 978 Q Q Variation Recursive average Augmented HP filter One sided HP filter Crises ) Quarterly figures before 99 are calculated with linear interpolation of annual figures ) Adjusted for estimated reinvested dividend income for and redemption/reduction of equity capital for Q Q Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF), Eiendomsmeglerforetakenes Forening (EFF), Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi and Norges Bank

49 Chart. Real commercial property prices. ) Highest and lowest gap values. Percent. 98 Q Q 8 Variation Recursive average Augmented HP filter One sided HP filter Crises ) Estimated market prices for office premises in Oslo deflated by the GDP deflator for mainland Norway Sources: Dagens Næringsliv, OPAK, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

50 Chart.7 Banks ) wholesale funding as a percentage of total assets. ) Highest and lowest gap values. Percentage points. 97 Q Q Variation year rolling average Augmented HP filter One sided HP filter Crises ) All banks and covered bond mortgage companies in Norway, excluding branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks ) Quarterly figures before 989 are calculated by linear interpolation of annual figures Source: Norges Bank

51 Chart. GDP trading partners. Four-quarter growth. Historical data with revised and previous trading partner aggregate. Projections in MPR / and now, with revised aggregate. Percent. Q Q - - Projections MPR / Projections MPR /, revised aggregate Historical growth, previous aggregate Historical growth, revised aggregate Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

52 Chart. Yields on -year government bonds. Percent. January June 8 7 US Germany UK Spain Italy Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- 8 7 Source: Bloomberg

53 Chart. Developments in equity markets. Index. January =. January June 8 US (S&P ) Germany (DAX) Spain (IBEX) Italy (FTSE MIB) Emerging economies (MSCI EM) Japan (Nikkei) Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- 8 Source: Bloomberg

54 Chart. Key rates and estimated forward rates at 8 March and June.¹) Percent. January December ²) US Euro area³) UK Sweden ) Broken lines show estimated forward rates at 8 March. Thin lines show forward rates at June. Forward rates are based on Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates ) Daily data from January and quarterly data from Q ) EONIA for the euro area from Q Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

55 Chart. US household debt as a share of disposable income. Percent. 99 Q Q Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

56 Chart. Non-performing loans as a share of total loans. Percent. Q Q 8 Portugal Spain France Italy 8 8 Sources: Thomson Reuters and Banque de France

57 Chart.7 Euro area bank credit standards. Net data¹). Q Q. GDP. Four-quarter change. Percent. Q Q GDP growth (left-hand scale) Bank credit standards for loans to enterprises (right-hand scale) ) Euro area bank lending survey. Values above zero indicate tighter credit conditions Source: Thomson Reuters

58 Chart.8 Retail sales in emerging economies. Volume. Three-month moving average. -month change. Percent. January March - Emerging economies in Asia excluding China¹) China Latin America Eastern Europe ) Adjusted for flooding in Thailand in Sources: Thomson Reuters, IMF and Norges Bank

59 Chart.9 Consumer prices in advanced and emerging economies.¹) -month change. Percent. January April 8 Advanced economies Emerging economies Headline Core inflation ) GDP-weighted (PPP). Advanced economies: Australia, Canada, euro area, Japan, UK and US. Emerging economies: Argentina, Brazil, India, Indonesia, China, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, South Korea and Turkey. Sources: CEIC, IMF, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

60 Chart. Prices for coal, crude oil and natural gas. USD per MMBTU. January December Coal US Oil Gas UK Gas US Gas Russia Gas Norway Futures prices 7 9 Sources: IMF, Thomson Reuters, Statistics Norway, Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank

61 Chart. Commodity prices. USD. Index. January 7 =. January December Copper Wheat Maize Soya beans Aluminium Futures prices 7 9 Sources: CME Group, ICE and Thomson Reuters

62 Chart. Developments in the krone exchange rate. Import-weighted exchange rate index (I-)¹). January June ) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate Source: Norges Bank

63 Chart. Banks' qualitative assessment of access to and premiums on wholesale funding. ) March 8 May Access funding 8 9 Short-term NOK Short-term foreign curr. Long-term NOK Long-term foreign curr. Risk premium funding 8 9 Short-term NOK Short-term foreign curr. Long-term NOK Long-term foreign curr. ) Average of banks reporting in Norges Bank's liquidity survey. For short-term funding in foreign currency, only banks active in these markets are included. Red indicates reduced access and higher premiums, grey indicates unchanged, green indicates increased access and lower premiums. During some periods of increased market turmoil, banks have reported twice a month Source: Norges Bank

64 Chart. Average risk premium ) on new and outstanding bond debt for Norwegian banking groups ). Basis points. January May Risk premium on outstanding covered bonds Risk premium on new covered bonds Risk premium on outstanding senior bank bonds Risk premium on new senior bank bonds ) Difference against -month NIBOR ) All banks and mortgage companies in Norway, excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway Sources: Bloomberg, Stamdata, DNB Markets and Norges Bank

65 Chart. Deposit rate ) and money market rate. Percent. January June.... Difference between money market rate and key policy rate Key policy rate Deposit rate (Statistics Norway) Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan-.... ) All banks in Norway Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

66 Chart. Lending rate on corporate loans and funding costs. Percent. January June 7 Risk premium on -year senior bank bonds Difference between money market rate and key policy rate Key policy rate Estimated funding costs, corporate loans¹) Lending rate, corporate loans Estimated lending rate, corporate loans 7 Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- ) Estimated using weighted interest rate on holdings of senior bank bonds and weighted deposit rate Sources: DNB Markets, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

67 Chart.7 Spread on loans over the money market rate. Lending from banks and mortgage companies. ) Percentage points. Q Q. Estimates from Q..... Lending spread, households Lending spread, corporates. ) All banks and mortgage companies in Norway Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

68 Chart.8 Banks' ) liquidity coverage ratio (LCR). ) Consolidated data. Weighted average for the group. At end-quarter Q Q Q Q Q Q 8 8 All banks DNB + commercial banks Savings banks Total assets > NOK bn Savings banks Total assets < NOK bn ) All banks in Norway, excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway ) Calculations are based on the recommendations published by the Basel Committee in Sources: Finanstilsynet and Norges Bank

69 Chart.9 Deposit-to-loan ratio. ) Percent. 8 Q Q ) All banks and mortgage companies in Norway, excluding branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks in Norway Source: Norges Bank

70 Chart. CPI and CPI-ATE ). -month change. Percent. January 9 September ) CPI CPI-ATE 9 ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products ) Projections for June September (broken lines) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

71 Chart. CPI-ATE ). Total and by supplier sector. -month change. Percent. January 9 September ) CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods Domestically produced goods and services³),, -, 9 ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products ) Projections for June September (broken lines) ) Norges Bank's estimates Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank -,

72 Chart. Unit labour costs and prices for domestically produced consumer goods and services, excluding rent. Index. =. 9 ULC mainland Norway ULC for sectors that produce consumer goods and services CPI-ATED excluding rent Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

73 Chart. Indicator of external price impulses to imported consumer goods measured in foreign currency. Annual change. Percent. ),, -, -, - - -, 7 9 -, ) Projection for Source: Norges Bank

74 Chart. CPI-ATE ). Actual figures, baseline scenario and projections from SAM ) with fan chart. Four-quarter change. Percent. Q Q ) MPR / % % 7% 9% SAM CPI-ATE Mar- Sep- Mar- Sep- Mar- Sep- ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products ) System for averaging short-term models ) Projections for Q Q (broken lines) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

75 Chart. GDP mainland Norway. Actual figures, baseline scenario and projections from SAM ) with fan chart. Four-quarter change. Volume. Seasonally adjusted. Percent. Q Q ) 7 % % 7% 9% 7 MPR / SAM GDP mainland Norway - - Mar- Sep- Mar- Sep- Mar- Sep- ) System for averaging short-term models ) Projections for Q Q (broken lines) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

76 Chart. GDP mainland Norway ) and Norges Bank's regional network's indicator of production growth over the past three months and expected growth in production next six months. Percent. Q Q ) Regional network Mainland GDP growth ) Seasonally adjusted quarterly change. Volume ) Latest observation in the regional network is May. Latest GDP observation is Q, projections for Q Q (broken line) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank -

77 Chart.7 Capacity constraints and labour supply ) as reported by Norges Bank's regional network and estimated output gap. Percent. Q Q - Output gap MPR / (left-hand scale) Capacity constraints (right-hand scale) Labour supply (right-hand scale) ) Share of contacts that will have some or considerable problems accommodating an increase in demand and the share of contacts where production is constrained by labour supply Source: Norges Bank

78 Chart.8 Employment ) and Norges Bank's regional network's indicator of change in employment and expected change in employment next three months. Percent. Q Q ) Regional network Employment growth ) Seasonally adjusted quarterly change in Quarterly National Accounts ) Latest observation in the Regional network is May. Latest observation in the Quarterly National Accounts is Q, projections for Q Q (broken line) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank -

79 Chart.9 Annual wage growth ) and LFS unemployment. Percent. 99 ) 8 8 Annual wage growth Unemployment rate ) Including estimated costs of increase in number of vacation days and introduction of mandatory occupational pensions ) Projections for (broken lines) Sources: Statistics Norway, Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements and Norges Bank

80 Chart. Household saving and net lending as a share of disposable income. Percent. 99 ) Saving ratio Saving ratio excl. dividend income Net lending ratio, excl. dividend income ) Projections for (broken lines) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank -

81 Chart. Changes in loan demand and credit standards on loans to households. Net values.,) Percent. 7 Q Q Demand for loans Credit standards for households des. 7 des. 8 des. 9 des. des. des. ) Net values are calculated by weighting together responses from Norges Bank's survey of bank lending. The lines show developments over the past quarter. Points show expected development next quarter ) Negative net values denote falling demand for loans / tightening credit standards Source: Norges Bank -8

82 Chart. Household consumption ) and real disposable income ). Annual change. Percent. ) 8 8 Household consumption Household real disposable income 7 9 ) Includes consumption among non-profit organisations. Volume ) Excluding dividend income. Including income in non-profit organisations ) Projections for (broken line) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

83 Chart. Household credit ) and house prices ). -month growth and monthly growth. Percent. January - September ) House prices, monthly growth, left hand axis House prices, -month growth, right hand axis Household credit, -month growth, right hand axis ) Domestic credit to households, C ) House prices in NOK pr square meter ) Projections for household credit are from April to September. Projections for house prices are from June to September. Sources: Statistics Norway, EFF, Eiendomsverdi, Finn.no and Norges Bank - -

84 Chart. Investment as a share of GDP, mainland Norway. Volume. Percent. 99 ) 8 8 Petroleum investment Business investment Housing investment ) Projections for Source: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

85 Chart. Difference between number of housing completions and increase in households, and population growth. ) Difference between number of housing completions and increase in households (left-hand scale) Population growth (right-hand scale) ) Projections for Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

86 Chart.7 Petroleum investment. Constant prices. In billions of NOK. 99 ) ) Projections for Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

87 Figur.7 Credit growth for non-financial corporations ) in mainland Norway. Four-quarter growth. Percent. Q - Q ) ) The sum of C non-financial corporations and foreign debt of non-financial corporations. ) Projections for Q - Q Sources: Statistics Norway, IMF og Norges Bank

88 Chart.8 Structural non-oil deficit and expected real return on the Government Pension Fund Global. Constant prices. In billions of NOK. ) 8 8 Structural non-oil deficit Expected real return ) Projections for Sources: Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank