THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE NORWEGIAN ECONOMY GOVERNOR ØYSTEIN OLSEN, 8 MAY 2015

Transcription

1 THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE NORWEGIAN ECONOMY GOVERNOR ØYSTEIN OLSEN, 8 MAY 5

2 Flexible inflation targeting Low and stable inflation Key policy rate in MPR /5 and MPR /,5% Stable developments in output and employment Monetary policy seeks to be robust MPR /5 MPR / 6 Source: Norges Bank

3 GDP growth abroad Seasonally adjusted volume index. 8 Q=. 8 Q 5 Q 8 US UK Sweden Euro area Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

4 Consumer prices abroad Twelve-month change. Percent. January April 5 6 US Euro area Sweden UK 5-5 Sources: Eurostat and Bureau of Labor Statistics 6 5 -

5 Yields on ten-year government bonds Percent. January 5 May Germany Spain UK US 5 Source: Bloomberg

6 Negative yields in Europe Two-year government bonds. Percent. August 5 May 5,5,5 -,5 Finland Netherlands Germany France -,5 - Sweden Denmark - Switzerland -,5 Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb-5 Apr-5 Source: Bloomberg -,5 6

7 Selected equity indices Index. January 5=. May 5 May 5 5 US Italy Sweden Germany Europe Emerging markets Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan-5 Apr-5 Source: Bloomberg 7

8 Oil price (Brent Blend) USD per barrel. January 5 May Source: Thomson Reuters 8

9 Petroleum investment Volume. Annual growth. Percent. MPR / MPR / Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 9

10 Field development Constant 5 prices. In billions of NOK. 9-8 ) Projects launched before 5 Other new development projects Johan Sverdrup (Phases and ) Maria,Vette and Zidane 75 Snorre and Johan Castberg Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Petroleum Directorate and Norges Bank

11 Exchange rate (I-) and oil price January May I-¹ (left-hand scale) 5 ) A positive slope denotes an appreciation of the krone. Sources: Norges Bank and Thomson Reuters Oil price (right-hand scale)

12 Labour costs relative to trading partners Hourly labour costs. Index. 995 = ) Common currency Domestic currency ) Projections for 5 are based on projections for exchange rate and wage growth in MPR /5. Sources: TBU (Norwegian Technical Calculation Committee for Wage Settlements), Statistics 9

13 Regional network Regional network in January Output growth. Annualised Past three months Expectations in January (growth next six months) 5 Source: Norges Bank Phone survey in April Output growth broadly in line with expectations Outlook adjusted down somewhat particularly as a result of weaker prospects for oil service industry

14 Unemployment rate. LFS and NAV. Percent. Seasonally adjusted. January 6 April LFS NAV Average LFS since Average NAV since Sources: Statistics Norway, NAV (Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration) and Norges Bank

15 Unemployment in Rogaland, western Norway January 999 April 5. Percent. Seasonally adjusted figures.,5,5,5,5, Sources: NAV og Norges Bank,5,5,5,5,5 5

16 House prices Twelve-month change. Percent. February April Stavanger Norway Sources: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no and Eiendomsverdi 6

17 Household debt to income ratio Percent. 996 Q Q Four-quarter growth in disposable income ) (left-hand scale) Four-quarter growth in household loan debt (left-hand scale) Debt to income ratio (right-hand scale) ) Loan debt as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated reinvested dividend income for 5 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 6 Q Q. ) Figures for Q and Q are based on quarterly growth in disposable income after Statistics Norway s main revision. Historical data have not been revised. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 7

18 CPI-ATE Total and by supplier sector. Percent. January June Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods Domestically produced good and services Projections MPR /

19 The Executive Board's monetary policy decision «Following an overall assessment of new information and the risk outlook, the Executive Board decided to keep the key policy rate unchanged at this meeting. At the same time, there are still prospects that the key policy rate will be lowered in June.» 9

20 THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE NORWEGIAN ECONOMY GOVERNOR ØYSTEIN OLSEN, 8 MAY 5