Bank Austria Economics & Market Analysis Austria. Austrian Economy. December

Transcription

1 Bank Austria Economics & Market Analysis Austria Austrian Economy December

2 Austrian Economy Author: Walter Pudschedl Imprint Published by UniCredit Bank Austria AG Schottengasse -8 Vienna Telephone + ()-97 Fax + ()- econresearch.austria@unicreditgroup.at As of December Bank Austria page

3 Austrian Economy Overview 8 Revision ) 9 Revision ) Revision ) Revision ) GDP (real, in %) Inflation (CPI in %)...8. ) Revision since the last report of November Favourable sentiment favourable economic outlook Inflation slightly down in November stable inflation outlook for Retail sales remain strong medium-term outlook clouded by budget consolidation Further improvement on the labour market positive trend weakens Export growth loses momentum industry will grow at a disproportionately strong rate also in Economic recovery helps the budget process in advantages through a relatively favourable debt position Austria is continuing to experience an improvement in economic conditions. There are stronger signs that the good performance of the Austrian economy will remain intact. Although expanding more slowly, exports will drive economic growth also in. In addition, more balanced economic growth will be supported by slightly weaker consumption and a revival in investment activity. Economic growth will amount to. per cent, somewhat more than our estimate for GDP growth of.9 per cent for the current year. November saw a. per cent m-o-m decline in inflation as a result of a slower momentum of the strong price drivers (fuel, housing and energy costs) and a discernible decline in prices for some services. At.9 per cent y-o-y, inflation was thus lower than in October. We still expect inflation to average.8 per cent in as a whole. Given the absence of any inflationary pressure from economic expansion, the inflation outlook will remain stable in the medium term. We anticipate an average inflation rate of. per cent for. In this context, the greatest risk factor will remain the development of commodity prices. In the current year, retail sales were boosted by the positive trend on the labour market, lifting retail sales growth in well above the 9 level (Jan.-Oct. : +. per cent). The general conditions (labour market risks, slower global economic growth, budget consolidation, discussion on tax measures) for further developments are however not particularly favourable, so that retail sales growth is expected to weaken appreciably in. Private consumption will not quite maintain its momentum in, either. Conditions in the labour market continue to improve. In November, employment rose further compared with the previous month (seasonally adjusted), as did the number of job vacancies. However, for the first time in over a year, the number of unemployed persons has not continued to decline. While we expect the labour market situation to improve further in the coming months in light of the relatively favourable economic outlook, the rate of the improvement will slow noticeably. Unemployment, which will average.8 per cent or. per cent (according to Eurostat criteria) in, will fall only slightly in, to.7 or. per cent, respectively. Austria s export sector is benefiting from the dynamic growth of the German economy, and Austria s industrial companies are continuing to increase output. While the strong momentum will weaken in the coming months, industry, especially the heavily export-oriented sectors, will continue on its growth path. We now expect output to expand by an average per cent in real terms in. After exports contracted by almost per cent in 9, current trends suggest that these may grow at a nominal rate of about per cent. Despite less support from the global economy, these favourable developments will continue in thanks to the strong competitiveness of Austria s export industry. The strong recovery of the Austrian economy has boosted tax revenues, and the positive developments on the labour market have lowered expenditure. We expect the budget deficit in to amount to. per cent of GDP, which is below the originally budgeted figure. On account of stronger economic growth, the deficit may fall below the Maastricht criterion of per cent of GDP already in if the extent of the originally planned consolidation remains unchanged. Austria is therefore in an advantageous position by international comparison. At just under 7 per cent of GDP, the country s total public debt is also well below that of the euro area. Bank Austria page December

4 Austrian Economy Austrian Economic Forecast forecast Real change in % GDP Private consumption Public consumption Gross fixed capital formation*) Investments in plant and machinery Investments in construction Exports Imports CPI (change in %) HCPI (change in %) Current account (in EUR bn) Current account (in % of GDP) Employment in s**) change in % Unemployment rate (nat. def.) Unemployment rate (EU def.) Unemployed (annual average in,) General gov. balance (in % of GDP) Public-sector debt (in % of GDP) Nominal GDP (in euro bn) *) excluding changes in inventory **) excluding persons drawing maternity benefits, military service and training Bank Austria Bank Austria page December

5 Austrian Economy - Forecast GDP (real) Inflation (CPI).7..7 forecast / / / / / / / /7 /8 /9 / / / Wesentliche Rahmenbedingungen estimate forecast forecast (Real change in %) GDP Eurozone GDP growth Private consumption Public consumption US GDP growth Gross fixed capital formation UniCredit MIB Investments in plant and machinery Investments in construction Exports Imports (yearly average) CPI (change in %) HCPI (change in % ) USD per euro forecast Employment (change in %)*) Crude oil (USD per brl)* Unemployment rate (nat. def.) Unemployment rate (EU def.) y gov. bonds..9.. General gov. balance (in % of GDP) months money...8. Public sector debt (in % of GDP) UniCredit MIB, Thomson Reuters * Futures *) excluding maternity/paternity leave, military service and training programmes December

6 Austrian Economy - Data IV 9 I II III IV / / / / 7/ 8/ 9/ / / Bank Austria Business Indicator GDP growth (prev. quarter, annualised) Industrial confidence Eurozone Germany France Italy Netherlands Spain Bank Austria Industrial confidence Eurozone Bank Austria Purchase Manager s Index Backlog of work New export orders Output expectations Industrial confidence Austria Industrial output change against previous year change against previous month (saisonal adjusted) Foreign trade... Exports (change against previous year in %) Exports (chg. against prev. month, s.a. in %, m mov. av.) Imports (change against previous year in %) Imports (chg. against prev. month, s.a. in %, m mov. av.) Ex-Im (m cum., euro bn) Construction Confidence indicator December

7 Austrian Economy - Data IV 9 I II III IV / / / / 7/ 8/ 9/ / / Retail trade Confidence indicator Retail trade nom. (change against previous year in %) Retail trade nom. (change against previous year in %, mav.) Retail trade real (change against previous year in %) Retail trade real (chg. against prev. month in %, s.a., mav.) Automobile trade nom. (change against prev. year in %) Tourism Overnight stay (change against previous year in %) Labour market Employment*) (change against previous year in %) Employment (s.a., change against previous month in %) Unemployed (change against previous year in ) Unemployment rate (in %, s.a.) Prices CPI (change against previous year in %) HCPI (Change against previous year in %) Prices of raw materials (change against prev. year in %) Crude oil (change against previous year in %) Financial market M Euribor year government bonds USD per euro Total loans (change against previous year in %, eop) Consumption loans (change against prev. year in %, eop) *) excluding maternity/paternity leave, military service and training programmes December

8 Austrian Economy - Graphs GDP and industrial production GDP (yoy in %, real; left scale) Industrial production (yoy in %; m avg.; right scale) Industrial and consumer confidence Industrial confidence Consumer confidence Austria's exports and imports Bank Austria Business Indicator Imports (yoy in %; m avg.) Exports (yoy in %; m avg.) GDP (yoy in %, real) Bank Austria Business Indicator Economics - and Market Analysis December

9 Austrian Economy - Graphs Unemployed Employment Unemployed (yoy in,; right scale) Unemployment rate (in %; seasonally adjusted; left scale) Employed in, (excl. matern./patern. leave) - left scale yoy in % excl. matern./patern. leave, military serv. and train. progr. - right scale Inflation rate Retail trade HCPI (yoy in %) CPI (yoy in %) Retail trade (yoy in %; real; m avg.; left scale) Confidence indicator (right scale) December

10 Money market Euro area (in %) -M money (in %) -M-Euribor Repo Marginal lending facility Deposit facility Euribor USD Libor M money (in %) UK Schweiz Japan UK Japan Japan Switzerland Schweiz Financial forecasts // in m in m Euro-m money market... Forwards.9.9 Euro-y German bonds.9.. Euro-y Austrian bonds..8.9 US$-m money market.9.. Forward..9 US-y treasuries...7 CHF/Euro... Forwards.. US$/Euro..9. Forwards.. Source: Datastream, Bloomberg, Bank Austria; Forecast: UniCredit Research 7 December

11 Long-term interest rates -Y Government bonds (yield in %) -Y Government bonds (yield in %). US Treasury Germany... UK Switzerland Japan Y Goverment bonds (yield in %) Interest rate differential Austria - Germany Austria December

12 Equity market USA - Euro area Germany - Euro area Dow-Jones (left scale) Euro-Stoxx (right scale) DAX (left scale) Euro-Stoxx (right scale) UK - Japan Austria - Euro area FTSE (left scale) NIKKEI (right scale) ATX (left scale) Euro Stoxx (right scale) December

13 Exchange rates USD per Euro SFR per Euro Yen per Euro GBP per Euro December

14 Austrian Economy - Selected indicators Forecast Change against prev. year in % GDP (real) Industrial output (real) Gross fixed capital formation (real) CPI (yearly average) Unemployment rate (yearly average) General gov. balance (in % of GDP) GDP (nom., Euro bn) Per capita GDP (in euro) 8,9 9,,78,79,97,8,9,9, in EUR mn Merchandise exports 89,88 9,7,7,8 7, 9,,, 8, Merchandise imports 9,9 9,99,, 9,8,,,, Current account balance,,9 7,8 9, 9,, 7, 8, 8, Current account balance (in % of GDP) Foreign direct investment (inflow, net), 8,7,,7,8,, 7, 8, Gross foreign debt (end of period),, 88,8,9 98,7 7,7 79,7 89,7 99,7 Gross foreign debt (in % of GDP) Import cover (in months) *) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. EUR (yearly average) EUR/USD (yearly average) n.a. *) not useful for Austria as a member of the eurozone Source: Bank Austria, OeNB, Wifo, UniCredit Research December

15 Austrian Economy Austrian Economy We invite you to visit the economic analyses on Bank Austria s website: under "Analyses & Research" in the section "Economic Research" or directly at If you would like to receive information on our most recent publications by , please subscribe to the newsletter Bank Austria EconomicNews on the website. If you have further questions, please send us an to econresearch.austria@unicreditgroup.at Disclaimer of liability The opinions of the authors do not necessarily reflect those of Bank Austria and those of the companies which have engaged the services of the authors. The information contained in this publication is not to be interpreted as an offer or invitation for the sale or purchase of securities of any kind. We reserve the right to modify the views expressed in this publication at any time without prior notification. Bank Austria