AustrianEconomy UNICREDIT BANK AUSTRIA ECONOMICS & MARKET ANALYSIS AUSTRIA

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1 AustrianEconomy UNICREDIT BANK AUSTRIA ECONOMICS & MARKET ANALYSIS AUSTRIA November 7

2 Austrian Economy Overview 6 Rev. ) 7 Rev. ) 8 Rev. ) 9 Rev. ) GDP (real, in %).5... Inflation (CPI in %) ) Revision since the last report Strong economic growth resumes in Q 7 on track for strongest growth for years Supported by global developments and strong consumption, the Austrian economy experienced dynamic growth in the first nine months of the year. The outlook for the export industry remains favourable. Moreover, thanks to the support provided by the strong growth in employment, private consumption is showing only meagre signs of flagging following the petering out of the positive effects of the tax reform. Austria s economy is expected to grow dynamically also towards the end of the year. Economic growth in Austria will accelerate to. per cent in 7 and continue on a broad basis. However, we expect a slightly slower pace of GDP growth of. per cent and. per cent in 8/9, respectively. Inflation declined to. per cent yoy in October inflation rate expected to exceed per cent in 7 and 8 After the upward trend based on oil prices at the start of the year and the following stabilsation, inflation has surpassed the level of per cent in autumn. The good economic development, at least in some areas, is also having an impact on inflation. There is a perceptible, demand-related rise in prices in some services, such as tourism, leisure and cultural activities. We expect inflation to average. per cent in 7 as a whole, exceeding the eurozone average for the ninth consecutive year. We are looking for average inflation of. per cent for 8. Retail sales growth moderate expansion in 7 expected to be slightly slower than in the previous year Despite continued improvement in consumer sentiment, the turnover growth in retail sales remains moderate. Retails sales grew at an average rate of.8 per cent in real terms year-on-year from January to September. The marked improvement in consumer sentiment and the sustained strong rise in employment are likely to support retail sales in the months ahead. On this basis we expect retail sales in Austria to expand at a rate of somewhat around per cent in real terms in 7 compared with. per cent in 6. Labour market benefits from economic upturn unemployment rate in 7 declines for the first time since. Unemployment amounted to only 8. per cent in October 7 (seasonally adjusted) thanks to strong growth in employment, an easing of the labour supply and an increase in the number of training programmes. Sustained economic growth has led to a turnaround on the labour market. For the first time since, the unemployment rate in 7 will be lower than in the previous year. We expect unemployment to average 8.6 per cent in 7, down from 9. per cent in the previous year, and 8. per cent in 8. UniCredit Research Page

3 Austrian Economy Austrian industry still on top form output growth of 5 per cent likely in 7 At the start of autumn industrial activity in Austria lost some of the very substantial momentum from the summer months, but the growth rate is still running at a high level thanks to continued strong demand from abroad. In 7 we expect production in domestic industry to increase by around 5 per cent, the highest rate for six years. This speed of growth will no longer be attained next year, but we believe that some sectors, for example the exportoriented steel industry and motor vehicle production, have good prospects for doing better in 8 than this year. Significant growth in exports global upturn supports revival in 7 The revival of the global economy is again providing significant support for Austria s export sector. After recording dynamic growth at the beginning of the year, exports are likely to expand relatively strongly in the current year as a whole. We expect export growth to average around 7 per cent in nominal terms in 7, and the trade deficit for goods is likely to remain stable, leading to an the current account surplus of. per cent of GDP in 7, unchanged compared to 6. Good budget performance in 7 robust economic growth helps to push the deficit under per cent of GDP in 7 Budget performance was good in 7 so far. Given thefavourable economic trends, revenue exceeded the budgeted figure. We therefore expect the budget deficit to decline to.7 per cent of GDP in 7 (6:.6 per cent). General government debt, supported by the resolution of Heta s assets etc., will decline from 8.6 per cent of GDP (6) to 78.5 per cent in 7, and will for the first time since 8 amount to less than 8 per cent of GDP. We expect total public debt to amount to 75.5 per cent of GDP in 8. Economic Forecast forecast BA Real change in % GDP Private consumption Public consumption Gross fixed capital formation*) Investments in plant and machinery Investments in construction Exports Imports CPI (change in %) HCPI (change in %) Current account (in EUR bn) Current account (in % of GDP) Employment in s**),7,9,6,9,5,565,65,655 change in % Unemployment rate (nat. def.) Unemployment rate (EU def.) Unemployed (annual average in,) General gov. balance (in % of GDP) Public-sector debt (in % of GDP) Nominal GDP (in euro bn) *) excludingchangesin inventory **) excluding personsdrawingmaternity benefits, military service andtraining Author: Walter Pudschedl Imprint Published by UniCredit Bank Austria AG Economics & Market Analysis Austria Schottengasse 6-8 Vienna Telephone + () Fax + () econresearch.austria@unicreditgroup.at As of November 7 UniCredit Research Page

4 Austrian Economy Contents 5 Economic growth per cent growth for the first time in years 6 Bank Austria Business Indicator extended economic upswing 6 Inflation inflation declined to. per cent yoy in October 7 Retail sector despite brighter sentiment only moderate growth 8 Labour market decline in unemployment continues 9 Industrial production boom in Austrian industry still continuing, but upswing is losing strength Foreign trade strong export growth due to global recovery Budget robust economy brings deficit down Annex Forecast Data on Austrian Economy Charts on the Austrian economy Financial markets (including forecasts) Disclaimer / Imprint UniCredit Research Page

5 Austrian Economy GDP growth accelerated in Q 7 Economic growth Following the strong first half in 7 with GDP growth of. per cent qoq in the first quarter and of.7 per cent in the second quarter, the Austrian economy maintained its strong momentum in Q7 expanding by as much as.6 per cent qoq, thanks to a strong global tailwind and unremitting high levels of domestic demand. Exports grew at.7 per cent qoq in the summer. The strong growth of the euro area economy, with tailwinds experienced by the core and peripheral countries, providing increasingly stronger impetus. Growth was also increasing in many countries in Central and Eastern Europe which maintain close business relations with Austria and the recovery of the non-european growth markets has moreover stabilized. After the strong expansion in spring the Austrian companies did not increase investments in the third quarter. Gross fixed capital investment declined by. per cent (Q7: +.7 per cent). Domestic demand remains buoyant thanks to the still strong rate of private consumption (+.5 per cent qoq). The clear improvement trend on the labor market has offset the diminishing positive effects of the tax reform implemented in 6. Consequently, GDP growth in the first nine months of 7 averaged.9 per cent yoy in real terms. AUSTRIAN ECONOMY ON TRACK FOR STRONGEST GROWTH FOR YEARS GDP (real, yoy change in per cent) Source: UniCredit Research Forecast GDP (real change, qoq and yoy) qoq, seasonally adjusted (right scale) -.5 annual average Sources: Statistik Austria, Wifo, UniCredit Research Outlook Following strong three quarters, GDP growth expected at per cent, slightly slower growth in 8/9 After economic growth accelerated to.9 per cent year-on-year in the first nine months of 7, leading indicators point to a stabilisation of the strong growth rate in the months ahead. While the export industry is benefiting from the upturn of global trade despite a stronger euro, the impetus from domestic demand is beginning to slow slightly. Pent-up demand for investments is expected to lose momentum after two years of strong growth. Given an only moderate increase in real wages, consumption will ease off. Beyond that, the strong and robust support of the domestic export economy is a cause for surprise thanks to global demand. Overall, economic growth in 7 will break through the % mark for the first time in ten years. The upturn is expected to continue into 8/9 with an anticipated. percent and. per cent, respectively. (5 November 7) UniCredit Research Page 5

6 Austrian Economy UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator increased to. points in October UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator At the start of the final quarter of 7, the UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator rose once again to reach its current position at. points its highest value for more than years. October's increase in the UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator was brought about above all by the significant increase in consumer confidence. Following a long period of scepticism, an increasingly optimistic attitude has been observed among domestic consumers in 7, keeping pace with improvements in the labor market. The mood in the service sector is also continuing to improve significantly. While the situation in the construction industry remains stable with a still positive order situation, the mood in domestic industry is improving above all due to an increase in demand from abroad. Global industry confidence, measured based on Austrian foreign trade share, has reached its highest level since July 7. SUSTAINED BUOYANCY DUE TO IMPROVED SENTIMENT UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator Industry confidence Industry confidence international Consumer confidence Confidence construction Confidence services 6 GDP (real; yoy change in %) Bank Austria Business Indicator / / / / / /5 /6 /7 Sources: Statistik Austria, Wifo, UniCredit Research, own calculations - / / / / / /5 /6 /7 Sources: Statistik Austria, Wifo, UniCredit Research, own calculations - Upswing on a broad basis Inflation declined to. per cent year-on-year in October Outlook Since then, however, the mood values included in the indicator have been above average overall and, for some months now, have not quite been in tune with subsequent actual incoming economic data. Although this suggests that the UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator presents a slight exaggeration of the current pace of growth of the Austrian economy, the current excellent mood is an indication that the Austrian economy will continue to grow vigorously in the months ahead. (5 November 7) Inflation The good economic development, at least in some areas, is having an impact on inflation. While the increase in the price of goods, also somewhat dampened by the strong Euro, is proving to be very moderate, there is a perceptible, demand-related rise in prices in some services, such as tourism, leisure and cultural activities. In addition, rents are continuing to rise sharply above the average. From January to October inflation in Austria averaged. per cent. In the first ten months of 7, the harmonised consumer price inflation in Austria (.%) is substantially in excess of the inflation level of.6% in the Eurozone. UniCredit Research Page 6

7 Austrian Economy INFLATION STABISLISES AT AROUND PER CENT YEAR-ON-YEAR Inflation (with effects resulting from goods contained in the basket) Transport Food Other effects Total CPI.%.5%.%.5%.%.5%.%.5%.% -.5% -.% / / / / / /5 /6 /7 Sources: Statistik Austria, UniCredit Research Housing, water, energy.%.5%.%.5%.%.5%.%.5%.% -.5% -.% Inflation. CPI (yoy change in %) forecast / / / /6 /8 Sources: Statistik Austria, UniCredit Research Inflation for 7 expected to average. per cent Moderate growth in retail sales Outlook At. percent, the annual average inflation rate for 7 is noticeably higher than the.9 percent rate of the previous year. Due to higher oil price forecasts for 8, we now expect inflation to remain constant at. percent, while the upwards pressure on service prices on the side of demand will continue to be the deciding factor for inflation in Austria. The inflation in Austria will remain above the one in the Eurozone, for which we expect to see a fall in inflation to.5 per cent. Since the financial crisis, inflation in Austria has remained above the reference value for the Eurozone. ( November 7) Retail sector After expanding by an average. per cent in 6, retail sales were unable to maintain the momentum in 7. Retail sales growth averaged.8 cent yoy from January to September 7. MODERATE GROWTH IN RETAIL SALES DESPITE IMPROVED CONSUMER SENTIMENT Consumer confidence 5 5 Consumer confidence indicator Retail Trade Retail sales, real (seasonally adj., =) months average / / / / / /5 /6 /7 Sources: Statistik Austria, UniCredit Research 96 / / / / / /5 /6 /7 Sources: Statistik Austria, UniCredit Research UniCredit Research Page 7

8 Austrian Economy Outlook for retail sales less favourable than in 6 Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate declines to 8.5 per cent in September Outlook Given the sluggish growth of retail sales, it is likely that their overall growth rate in 7 will fail to match that of the previous year. However, the significant improvement in consumer sentiment and the sustained strong growth in employment should support retail sales in Austria over the coming months. They will probably grow by around per cent in real terms in 7. (5 November 7) Labour market Austria s labour market is benefiting from the favourable economic trend. In autumn, the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 8. per cent after an average of 9. per cent in 6. This decrease was mainly due to the strong rise in employment averaging.8 per cent in a year-on-year comparison. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, around 5, new jobs have already been created in Austria since the start of the year. The reduction in the unemployment rate compared with the rest of Europe started later and has also been relatively slight to date in light of the strength of the economic recovery. This is attributable to the continuing significant rise in the labour supply. With a labour supply that has not changed since the start of the year, the unemployment rate of only just under 7 per cent would be.5 percentage points lower than the actual current value. ROBUST ECONOMIC GROWTH LOWERS UNEMPLOYMENT TO A TWO-YEAR LOW Labour Market,6 Vacancies (absolute, s.a., right scale) 6,,55 55, Employment excl. persons drawing maternity benefits,,5 military service and training (in,, s.a.) 5,,5 5,,,,5 5,,,,5 5,,, Sources: HVSV, UniCredit Research Unemployment Rate (national and Eurostat, seasonal adjusted) national definition Eurostat definition Sources: Eurostat, Statistik Austria, UniCredit Research Strong employment growth lowers unemployment rate to 8.6 per cent in 7 Outlook Sustained economic growth has prompted a turnaround on the labour market. For the first time since, the unemployment rate in 7 will be lower than in the previous year. We expect unemployment to average 8.6 per cent in 7, down from 9. per cent in the previous year. Further easing on the labour market in 8 is now anticipated due to the continuing strong economic recovery. However, the decrease in the unemployment rate will slow down to 8. per cent. As a result of the slight slackening of the economy, growth in employment will be slightly lower than in 7 and will outweigh the continuing flow of additional manpower to a lesser degree. ( November 7) UniCredit Research Page 8

9 Austrian Economy At 59. points, the UniCredit Bank Austria Purchasing Managers Index indicates continued strong momentum in industry in October Industrial production At the start of autumn industrial activity in Austria lost some of the very substantial momentum from the summer months, but the growth rate is still running at a high level thanks to continued strong demand from abroad. This is indicated by the UniCredit Bank Austria Purchasing Managers Index, which at 59. points in October did not change compared with the previous month. In October the current Index still well exceeds the neutrality line of 5 points, above which industrial growth is measured, as well as the long-term average of 5 points. However, the peak values of more than 6 points in summer 7 will no longer be attained. The most important detailed results of the survey among Purchasing Managers show that in domestic industry October was characterised by a high increase in production thanks to more incoming orders, albeit at a slightly lower level than in the previous month. By contrast, the growth in employment speeded up. The strong price buoyancy for primary materials, increasing order backlogs and the extension of suppliers delivery times bear witness to the as yet barely diminished strength of the economic upturn in domestic industry. UNICREDIT BANK AUSTRIA PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX SIGNALS STRONGEST GROWTH FOR 6 YEARS UniCredit Bank Austria Purchasing Managers' Index 65 seasonally adjusted not adjusted Industry Sources: IHS Markit, UniCredit Research EMI Production (left-hand scale) Industrial Production (8=, seasonally adjusted; right-hand scale) 5 / / / / / /5 /6 /7 Sources: Statistik Austria, IHS Markit, UniCredit Research 9 8 High growth expectations among production companies for the next twelve months, but the speed of upturn in industry in autumn and winter will be slightly lower than in the summer months Outlook Now lasting for more than two and a half years, the current upward trend in the UniCredit Bank Austria Purchasing Managers Index is the longest in its almost -year history while the high rate of growth is still continuing. However, there are growing signs that the economic peak has now been reached. The ratio between incoming orders and stock levels is now decreasing significantly compared with previous months, although it is still very positive. Since the production expectations of Austrian Purchasing Managers continue to be clearly directed upwards, this is a sure indicator of still continuing dynamic development in industry, albeit at a slightly slower rate than in summer. Although the Future Output Index calculated during the survey has weakened compared with the previous month, its high level of 65. points in October holds out the prospect of pronounced industrial expansion in the next twelve months. In 7 we expect production in domestic industry to increase by around 5 per cent, the highest rate for six years. This speed of growth will no longer be attained next year, but we believe that some sectors, for example the export-oriented steel industry and motor vehicle production, have good prospects for doing better in 8 than this year. ( October 7) UniCredit Research Page 9

10 Austrian Economy Still strong momentum in foreign trade Foreign trade Following a weak export performance, reflected in a moderate contraction of. per cent yoy to EUR. billion in 6, foreign demand for Austrian products has been showing an upward trend since late autumn. From January to August, exports expanded by 8 per cent compared with the previous year. While import growth increased by an average.5 percentage points in 6 to 8.8 per cent yoy, it was slightly above the growth of exports, so that the trade deficit in goods increased to EUR.6 billion (Jan. August/6: - EUR.7 billion). Exports to EU member countries grew at a disproportionately strong rate, but demand for imports from non-eu countries was even stronger, partly due to oil price-related factors. On this basis, the trade deficit in goods in the first eight months of the year is attributable entirely to trade with non-eu countries, while Austria s trade balance with the EU moved into surplus. AUSTRIAN EXPORTS EXPAND IN RESPONSE TO GLOBAL UPTURN Exports and imports (monthly figures, EUR mn),5,,5,,5, 9,5 9, 8,5 8, / / / / / /5 /6 /7 Sources: Statistik Austria, UniCredit Research Exports, s.a. Exports trend Imports, s.a. Imports trend Balance of trade (monthly figures, EUR mn) , -, -, Balance of trade Balance of trade, s.a. / / / / / /5 /6 /7 Sources: Statistik Austria, UniCredit Research Increase in export orders reflects continued upswing in foreign trade Budget deficit narrows in 7 Outlook The revival of the global economy is again providing significant support for Austria s export sector. After a lacklustre performance in 6, dynamic export growth at the beginning of the current year signals a tangible expansion of exports in 7 as a whole. We now expect exports to grow at an average rate of about 7 per cent in nominal terms in 7. This would be the strongest rise since. As imports will probably grow at similar pace than exports, due to higher oil prices in the first half of the year and the strong demand for investment, the merchandise trade deficit will barely change compared to 6. On this basis, we expect the current account surplus of. per cent of GDP in 6 to remain at. per cent of GDP in 7. (5 November 7) Budget There are signs that the budget deficit may decline in 7 after increasing to.6 per cent of GDP in 6, primarily as a result of revenue shortfalls following the implementation of the tax reform. In the stability programme disclosed in April 7 the Finance Ministry assumes a Maastricht deficit of only per cent of GDP. The draft budget approved by Austria s parliament in November 6 called for a deficit of. per cent of GDP. Budget performance was good in 7 so far. Public revenue increased by more than 5 per cent between January and September compared with the previous year. In particular, revenue from value added tax and corporation tax rose strongly. Robust economic growth will continue to generate strong revenue. Based on the sustained dynamic economic upturn, we believe that the UniCredit Research Page

11 Austrian Economy budget deficit in 7 will be below the government s target figure. We expect a government deficit of.7 per cent of GDP. ROBUST GROWTH HELPS TO REDUCE NEW DEBT UNDER PER CENT OF GDP IN 7 Tax revenues (average monthly revenues, =) Tax revenues, total Corporate income tax Payroll tax VAT 8 / / / / / /5 /6 /7 Sources: BMF, UniCredit Research Public Households (in per cent of GDP) 8.. New debt Total debt (right-hand scale) Sources: BMF, Statistik Austria, UniCredit Research Public debt continues to fall; again below 8 per cent of GDP in 7 Outlook In 6, public debt declined to 8.6 per cent of GDP, notwithstanding a higher budget deficit. We expect general government debt, supported by the decline in new debt and stronger GDP growth, to fall significantly to 78.5 per cent of GDP as of the end of 7, thanks to the rapid resolution of the Heta bad bank, KA-Finanz and Immigon portfolios. For the first time since the beginning of the financial crisis in 8, general government debt will probably fall to below 8 per cent of GDP in 7. (5 November 7) UniCredit Research Page

12 Austrian Economy - Forecast GDP (real) Forecast,,,,5,,7,8, Inflation (yoy, in %) Forecast Forecast International environment and general conditions forecast GDP (real change in %) Private consumption (GDP, change in %) Public consumption Euro zone Gross fixed capital formation Germany Investments in plant and machinery France Investments in construction Italy Exporte Spain...7. Importe UK USA CPI (change in %) Japan..6.. HCPI (change in %) Employment (change in %)*) (yearly average) 5 6 Unemployment rate (national def.) Unemployment rate (EU def.) USD per euro.... CHF per euro General gov. balance (in % of GDP) GBP per euro Public sector debt (in % of GDP) JPY per euro Current account balance (EUR bn) Current account balance (in % of GDP) Crude oil (USD per brl.) Foreign direct investment (inflow net, EUR bn) Gross foreign debt (end of period, EUR bn) y Austrian gov. bonds Gross foreign debt (in % of GDP) M Euribor *) excluding maternity/paternity leave, military service and training programmes Source: UniCredit Research UniCredit Research November 7

13 Austrian Economy - Data 5 6 III 6 IV 6 I 7 II 7 III 7 /7 /7 /7 5/7 6/7 7/7 8/7 9/7 /7 UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator GDP growth (prev. quarter, annualised) Industrial confidence Eurozone Germany France Italy Netherlands Spain UniCredit Bank Austria Industrial confidence Eurozone UniCredit Bank Austria Purchase Manager s Index Backlog of work New export orders Output expectations Industrial confidence Austria Industrial output change against previous year change against previous month (saisonal adjusted) Foreign trade Exports (change against previous year in %) Exports (chg. against prev. month, s.a. in %, m mov. av.) Imports (change against previous year in %) Imports (chg. against prev. month, s.a. in %, m mov. av.) Ex-Im (m cum., euro bn) Construction Confidence indicator UniCredit Research November 7

14 Austrian Economy - Data 5 6 III 6 IV 6 I 7 II 7 III 7 /7 /7 /7 5/7 6/7 7/7 8/7 9/7 /7 Retail trade Confidence indicator Retail trade nom. (change against previous year in %) Retail trade nom. (change against previous year in %, mav.) Retail trade real (change against previous year in %) Retail trade real (chg. against prev. month in %, s.a., mav.) Automobile trade nom. (change against prev. year in %) Tourism Overnight stay (change against previous year in %) Labour market Employment*) (change against previous year in %) Employment (s.a., change against previous month in %) Unemployed (change against previous year in ) Unemployment rate (in %, s.a.) Prices CPI (change against previous year in %) HCPI (change against previous year in %) Prices of raw materials (change against prev. year in %) Crude oil (change against previous year in %) Financial market M Euribor year government bonds USD per euro Total loans (change against previous year in %, eop) Consumption loans (change against prev. year in %, eop) *) excluding maternity/paternity leave, military service and training programmes UniCredit Research November 7

15 Austrian Economy - Forecast GDP (real) Forecast,,,,5,,7,8, Inflation (yoy, in %) Forecast Forecast International environment and general conditions forecast GDP (real change in %) Private consumption (GDP, change in %) Public consumption Euro zone Gross fixed capital formation Germany Investments in plant and machinery France Investments in construction Italy Exporte Spain...7. Importe UK USA CPI (change in %) Japan..6.. HCPI (change in %) Employment (change in %)*) (yearly average) 5 6 Unemployment rate (national def.) Unemployment rate (EU def.) USD per euro.... CHF per euro General gov. balance (in % of GDP) GBP per euro Public sector debt (in % of GDP) JPY per euro Current account balance (EUR bn) Current account balance (in % of GDP) Crude oil (USD per brl.) Foreign direct investment (inflow net, EUR bn) Gross foreign debt (end of period, EUR bn) y Austrian gov. bonds Gross foreign debt (in % of GDP) M Euribor *) excluding maternity/paternity leave, military service and training programmes Source: UniCredit Research UniCredit Research November 7

16 Money market Euro area (in %) -M money (in %) -M-Euribor Repo.5 Marginal lending facility Deposit facility Euribor USD Libor M money (in %). UK Schweiz Japan UK Japan Switzerland UniCredit Research November 7

17 Long-term interest rates -Y Government bonds (yield in %) -Y Government bonds (yield in %) 5 US Treasury Germany 5 5 UK Switzerland Japan Y Goverment bonds (yield in %) Interest rate differential Austria - Germany Austria UniCredit Research November 7

18 Equity market USA - Euro area Germany - Euro area Dow-Jones (left scale) Euro-Stoxx 5 (right scale) DAX (left scale) Euro-Stoxx 5 (right scale) UK - Japan Austria - Euro area FTSE (left scale) NIKKEI 5 (right scale) ATX (left scale) Euro Stoxx 5 (right scale) Exchange rates UniCredit Research November 7

19 USD per Euro SFR per Euro Yen per Euro GBP per Euro UniCredit Research November 7

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