Monetary Policy Report 1/09

Transcription

1 .. Monetary Policy Report / Governor Svein Gjedrem London, March Norwegian banks equity capital ) Per cent of total assets. - Sources: Klovland (), Statistics Norway and Norges Bank ) Includes savings and commercial banks

2 .. Norwegian banks sources of funding in Norway ) Per cent of total assets. - Equity capital Deposits Market funding and other debt ) Includes savings and commercial banks Sources: Klovland (), Matre (), Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Premium in -month money market rate Difference between -month money market rate and expected key policy rate. June March. Percentage points Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

3 .. Oil price (Brent Blend) USD per barrel. January March. Futures prices (broken lines) October and March Brent Blend March October Source: Thomson Reuters Commodity prices USD. Index. January =. January March Aluminium Baltic Dry Index Fresh salmon Source: Thomson Reuters

4 .. Norway s terms of trade Export prices/import prices. ) ) Projections for and. Sources: Statistics Norway, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank Exchange rates ) EURNOK and USDNOK. Week Week EURNOK USDNOK Appreciation Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- ) A rising curve denotes a stronger exchange rate. Source: Norges Bank

5 .. Consumer prices -month change. Per cent. January February. CPI CPIXE ) ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. See Staff Memo / from Norges Bank for a description of the CPIXE. -. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Inflation Moving -year average ) and variation ) in CPI ). Per cent. - Variation CP I Inflation target ) The moving average is calculated years back and years ahead. ) The band around the CPI is the variation in the CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products in the average period, measured by +/- one standard deviation ) Estimated based on projections for from MPR / Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

6 .. Expected consumer price inflation and years ahead ) Per cent. Q Q. Expected inflation years ahead Expected inflation years ahead... ) Average of expectations of employer/employee organisations and experts (financial industry experts, macro analysts and academics) Sources: TNS Gallup and Perduco Differential between long-term forward interest rates in Norway and the euro area ) Percentage points. January March.... ) -year forward rates years ahead. Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

7 .. Capacity utilisation and supply of labour Norges Bank s regional network. Share that will have problems accommodating an increase in demand. Per cent. January January Supply of labour Capacity utilisation Jan- Oct- Jul- Apr- Jan- Oct- Source: Norges Bank Annual wage growth ) and LFS unemployment Per cent. ) Annual wage growth Unemployment rate ) Average for all groups. Including estimated costs of increase in number of vacation days and introduction of mandatory occupational pensions. Sources: Statistics Norway, Technical Reporting ) Projections for Committee on Income Settlements and Norges Bank

8 .. Real exchange rate Deviation from mean.. Per cent. ) Relative consumer prices Relative wages Appreciation ) Data for based on observations to March. The squares show the average for this period. A rising curve indicates weaker competitiveness - Sources: Statistics Norway, Technical Reporting Commitee on Income Settlements, Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank Mainland GDP Annual growth in volume. Per cent. - ) - - ) Projections for Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

9 .. Petroleum revenue spending In billions of NOK. ) Expected real return on the oil fund Petroleum revenue spending ) Norges Bank s projections for - Sources: Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank Household saving and net lending Share of disposable income. Per cent. ) - - Saving ratio ) Net lending ) ) Projections for - ) Excluding share dividends - Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

10 .. Baseline scenarios. Per cent Key policy rate Output gap % - - % % - - % Inflation ) Underlying inflation ) ) CPI ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank % % % % Baseline scenarios. Per cent Key policy rate Output gap Inflation ) Underlying inflation ) ) CPI ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

11 .. Projected inflation and output gap In the baseline scenario. Per cent. Q Q Output gap, left-hand scale CPIXE, right-hand scale ) - - Mar- Mar- Mar- Mar- Mar- Mar- ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Projected inflation and output gap In the baseline scenario. Per cent. Q Q Output gap, left-hand scale CPI, right-hand scale CPIXE, right-hand scale ) - - Mar- Mar- Mar- Mar- Mar- Mar- ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

12 .. Cross checks Key policy rate, Taylor rule, growth rule and rule with external rates. Per cent. Q Q Key policy rate Taylor rule Growth rule Rule with external rates Mar- Sep- Mar- Sep- Mar- Sep- Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Cross checks Norges Bank s average pattern of interest rate setting ) Per cent. Q Q Key policy rate Interest rate movements that follow from Norges Bank s average pattern of interest rate setting with a % confidence interval (blue area) Source: Norges Bank

13 .. Alternative scenarios. Per cent Key policy rate Lower demand Output gap Higher demand Lower demand Higher demand % - - % % - - % Underlying inflation ) Lower demand Higher demand ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Factors behind changes in the interest rate path since December Accumulated contribution. Percentage points. Q Q Exchange rate Interest rates abroad Prices and costs Demand Changes in the interest rate path Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Norges Bank

14 .. Interval for the key policy rate at the end of each strategy period and projection Per cent. January December / / / / / / / / / / / / / Dec. / Strategy interval per cent Source: Norges Bank