Monetary Policy and the Economic Situation

Transcription

1 Monetary Policy and the Economic Situation Governor Svein Gjedrem Mid- Chamber of Commerce and Industry November Equity prices in the US, Japan, Germany and January = Japan Nikkei USA Wilshire Germany dax Source: EcoWin

2 Changes in unemployment on same month previous year In thousands Whole country Eastern 9 9 Western Mid- - Northern- - Southern - - Source: Directorate of Labour Credit from domestic sources to households and house prices -month growth in per cent. Price per square meter in thousands of NOK House prices (level) Credit to households -month growth Sources: Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents and Norges Bank

3 Household net lending Sum of last four quarters. In billions of NOK Source: Norges Bank Structural, non-oil budget deficit Per cent of trend GDP for mainland Revised National Budget (and Long-Term Programme) National Budget National Budget Revised National Budget Source: Ministry of Finance

4 9 Krone exchange rate (TWI) Monthly observations Source: Norges Bank Purchasing Power Parity Germany and. Relative prices and exchange rate Consumer prices Exchange rate

5 Purchasing Power Parity Real exchange rate (TWI/relative CPI) Source: Norges Bank Cyclical divergence Forward interest rates ) in, Germany and the US 7 7 Germany US ) Estimated forward rates on 7 November Source: Norges Bank

6 8 Cyclical divergence. Krone exchange rate measured by the TWI TWI, monthly figures 9 Forward exchange rate (Uncovered interest rate parity) Source: Norges Bank Inflation Report / Per centage change from previous year Mainland demand ½ ¼ ½ Private consumption ¾ ½ ¼ Public consumption ¾ ¾ Gross investment, mainland -¼ ½ ½ Petroleum investment - Exports, traditional goods ½ - Mainland GDP ½ ¾ (- ¼ CPI ¼ ¼ ¼) CPI-ATE ¼ ¼ Annual wages ¾ ½ ¼ Source: Norges Bank s Inflation Report /

7 Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). -month rise. Per cent Goods and services produced in CPI-ATE - Imported consumer goods Consumer price inflation (CPI-ATE). Projection and uncertainty. -month rise. Per cent.. % % 7% 9% The bands in the fan indicate different probabilities for consumer price inflation

8 Regional network 7 regions rounds of talks each year - contact meetings per region per round Totally around contact meetings each year Region South-West Rogalandsforskning Region North-West Møreforskning Region North Kunnskapsparken Bodø Region Central Allforsk Region Inland Østlandsforskning Region East Norges Bank Region South Agderforskning Employment by sector In thousands Private services (incl. wholesale and retail trade and post) Public sector Manufacturing

9 Exports of services from In billions of NOK Gross receipts, shipping Travel Financial and business services Petroleum activities etc. Pipeline transport Other Exports of other private services Employment in private services (incl. wholesale and retail trade) In thousands Wholesale and retail trade Commercial services Other transport industries Hotels and restaurants Financial intermediation Post and telecom

10 Productivity growth Value added per working hour. Average 99- Mainland private Services private Industry Mainland private is private mainland industries except dwellings, primary industries and electricity Productivity growth Value added per working hour. Average 99- US Sources: Bureau of Labour Statistics, Statistics and Norges Bank Norwegian figures represent mainland except dwellings, primary industries and electricity: US figures represent non-farm business sector

11 Productivity growth Value added per working hour. Average 99-8 Post/telecom. Financial int. Wholes. and ret. trade Hotels/rest. Other soc. and pers. Commercial services Other transport