Country Briefing: Japan

Transcription

1 Country Briefing: Japan June 9, 1 Dr. Edward Yardeni eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson djohnson@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Real vs. Nominal GDP 1 Real GDP -3 Industrial Production - Key Machinery Orders Merchandise Trade 7-9 Share of Japanese Exports 1 Housing Starts 11 Unemployment 1 Wages 13 Household Spending & Consumer Confidence 1 Consumer Prices 1-1 Monetary Policy 17 Money 1-19 Government Deficit & Debt National Debt 1 Stocks Forex 3 International Reserves US Capital Inflows: Japan Japan vs. US GDP & Yield -7 Consumer Confidence June 9, 1 / Japan www.

3 1 1 Figure 1. JAPAN: GDP (trillion yen, saar) Real vs. Nominal GDP Q Real Nominal Source: Haver Analytics. 7 1 Figure. JAPAN: GDP (yearly percent change) 1 1 Real (1.1) Nominal (1.) 1 Q Source: Haver Analytics. -1 Page 1 / June 9, 1 / Japan www.

4 Real GDP 1 1 Figure 3. REAL GDP: JAPAN (quarterly percent change, saar) Total (-.) Domestic Demand (-.9) Private Consumption (-.3) Source: Cabinet Office and Haver Analytics. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (-.) Q1 Q1 Q1 Q Page / June 9, 1 / Japan www.

5 Real GDP 3 1 Figure. REAL GDP: JAPAN (quarterly percent change, saar) Private Nonresidential Investment (1.3) Q Q Exports of Goods & Services (.) Imports of Goods & Services (1.) Source: Cabinet Office and Haver Analytics. Government Consumption (.) Q1 Q Page 3 / June 9, 1 / Japan www.

6 1 11 Figure. JAPAN: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (1=1) Industrial Production Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade & Industry Figure. JAPAN: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (1=1) Investment Goods Consumer Goods Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade & Industry. 7 Page / June 9, 1 / Japan www.

7 17 Figure 7. JAPAN: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (1=1) Industrial Production Investment Goods: Capital Goods Capital Goods Ex Transportation Construction Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade & Industry Figure. JAPAN: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (1=1) Consumer Goods: Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade & Industry. Page / June 9, 1 / Japan www.

8 13 1 Figure 9. JAPAN: KEY PRIVATE MACHINE ORDERS* (billion yen, sa) Key Machinery Orders Apr * Excludes volatile ships and electric power (headline series). Source: Cabinet Office. Figure 1. JAPAN: KEY PRIVATE MACHINE ORDERS* (yearly percent change) Apr * Excludes volatile ships and electric power (headline series). Source: Cabinet Office. Page / June 9, 1 / Japan www.

9 1 1 Figure 11. JAPAN: MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE (trillion yen, saar) Merchandise Trade (trillion yen, saar) Exports Imports (yearly percent change) Exports Imports Source: Ministry of Finance and Japan Tariff Association. - Page 7 / June 9, 1 / Japan www.

10 Merchandise Trade Figure 1. JAPAN: MERCHANDISE TRADE WITH ASIA (trillion yen, annualized, -ma, nsa) Exports To Imports From Source: Ministry of Finance/Japan Tariff Association. 1 Figure 13. JAPAN: MERCHANDISE TRADE WITH CHINA (trillion yen, annualized, -ma, nsa) 1 1 Exports To Imports From Source: Ministry of Finance/Japan Tariff Association. Page / June 9, 1 / Japan www.

11 1 Figure 1. JAPAN: MERCHANDISE TRADE WITH EU (trillion yen, annualized, -ma, nsa) Merchandise Trade 1 1 Exports To Imports From Source: Ministry of Finance/Japan Tariff Association. 19 Figure 1. JAPAN: MERCHANDISE TRADE WITH US (trillion yen, annualized, -ma, nsa) Exports To Imports From Source: Ministry of Finance/Japan Tariff Association. Page 9 / June 9, 1 / Japan www.

12 3 Figure 1. SHARE OF JAPANESE EXPORTS (percent based on 1-month sum) Share of Japanese Exports 3 3 China (19.3) United States (19.1) Western Europe (11.7) Source: Ministry of Finance/Japan Tariff Association. Figure 17. SHARE OF JAPANESE EXPORTS (percent based on 1-month sum) Rest of World* * Total less China, US, and Western Europe. Source: Ministry of Finance and Japan Tariff Association. Page 1 / June 9, 1 / Japan www.

13 1. 1. Figure 1. JAPAN: HOUSING STARTS (million units, saar) Housing Starts Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport. 7 Figure 19. JAPAN: HOUSING STARTS (yearly percent change) Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport. - Page 11 / June 9, 1 / Japan www.

14 .. Figure. JAPAN: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (percent) Unemployment Source: Haver Analytics Figure 1. JAPAN: UNEMPLOYMENT (millions, sa) Source: Haver Analytics. 1. Page 1 / June 9, 1 / Japan www.

15 Wages 3 3 Figure. JAPAN: REAL CONTRACTUAL EARNINGS PER EMPLOYEE PER MONTH (thousand yen) Nominal Real* Apr * Deflated by CPI. Source: Ministry of Health, Labour & Welfare Figure 3. JAPAN: REAL CONTRACTUAL EARNINGS PER EMPLOYEE PER MONTH (yearly percent change) Nominal (.9) Real* (.3) Apr * Deflated by CPI. Source: Ministry of Health, Labour & Welfare. Page 13 / June 9, 1 / Japan www.

16 1 Figure. Household Spending & Consumer Confidence JAPAN: HOUSEHOLD SPENDING* (yearly percent change) 1 Apr - - Total (-1.3) * Family Income & Expenditure Survey: Average living expenditure per household (including agricutural, forestry, and fisheries households). Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Figure. JAPAN: CONSUMER CONFIDENCE ( + better, sa) Jun 3 Total (3.7) Overall Livelihood (1.9) Income Growth (1.) Employment (.3) Willingness to Buy Durable Goods (.9) Source: Cabinet Office of Japan. 1 Page 1 / June 9, 1 / Japan www.

17 Figure. JAPAN: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (yearly percent change) Total (.) Excluding Food & Energy (.1) Food & Beverages (.) Consumer Prices Housing (-.1) Fuel, Light, and Water Charges (3.) Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. -1 Page 1 / June 9, 1 / Japan www.

18 Figure 7. JAPAN: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (yearly percent change) Consumer Prices Furniture & Household Utensils (-1.) Clothes & Footwear (.1) Medical Care (1.9) Transportation & Communication (1.3) Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. - Page 1 / June 9, 1 / Japan www.

19 1 Figure. JAPAN: INTEREST RATES (percent, weekly) Monetary Policy 1 1-Year Government Bond Yield (.3) Call Rate: Uncollateralized Overnight (-.7) / Z = Zero Interest Rate Policy. Note: Blue shade is Quantitative Easing Policy. Source: Bank of Japan Figure 9. JAPAN: RESERVE BALANCES Z AT BOJ (trillion yen, reserve adjusted) Z = Zero Interest Rate Policy. Note: Blue shade is Quantitative Easing Policy. Source: Bank of Japan. Page 17 / June 9, 1 / Japan www.

20 Money Figure JAPAN: MONETARY BASE* Z (trillion yen, sa, average outstanding) * Adjusted for change in reserve requirements. Z = Zero Interest Rate Policy. Note: Blue shade is Quantitative Easing Policy. Source: Bank of Japan. 1 1 Figure 31. JAPAN: NEW M* (trillion yen, sa) * New M excludes: cash and deposits held by securities companies and Tanshi companies, nonresident deposits, and cash held by the Japan Post Bank. Source: Bank of Japan. Page 1 / June 9, 1 / Japan www.

21 1 1 Figure 3. JAPAN: M PLUS CDs* (yearly percent change) Z Money M Plus CDS (3.) Z = Zero Interest Rate Policy. * In yen. Note: Blue shade is Quantitative Easing Policy. Source: Bank of Japan... Figure 33. JAPAN: AVERAGE LOANS OUTSTANDING AT TOTAL DOMESTIC BANKS (trillion yen) Z Z = Zero Interest Rate Policy Note: Blue shade is Quantitative Easing Policy. Source: Haver Analytics. 3. Page 19 / June 9, 1 / Japan www.

22 Government Deficit & Debt 1 1 Figure 3. JAPAN: TOTAL NATIONAL GOVERNMENT DEBT (trillion yen, ratio scale) Apr Source: Bank of Japan. Figure 3. JAPAN: TOTAL NATIONAL GOVERNMENT DEBT (as a percent of nominal GDP) Q Source: Bank of Japan. Page / June 9, 1 / Japan www.

23 1 Figure 3. JAPAN: TOTAL NATIONAL GOVERNMENT DEBT (yearly change, trillion yen) National Debt 1 Apr Source: Bank of Japan. - 1 Figure 37. JAPAN: TOTAL NATIONAL GOVERNMENT DEBT TIMES GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD/1 (trillion yen) Apr Source: Bank of Japan. - Page 1 / June 9, 1 / Japan www.

24 Figure 3. JAPAN: NIKKEI STOCK PRICE INDEX Z Stocks / Z = Zero Interest Rate Policy Blue shade is Quantitative Easing Policy. Source: Reuters America, Inc. 1 1 Figure 39. JAPAN: TOKYO BANK STOCK Z PRICE INDEX (199=1) Z = Zero Interest Rate Policy Blue shade is Quantitative Easing Policy. Source: Haver Analytics. / Page / June 9, 1 / Japan www.

25 7 Figure. JAPAN: YEN/US DOLLAR (inverted scale) Z Forex / Z = Zero Interest Rate Policy Blue shade is Quantitative Easing Policy. Source: Bank of Japan. 1 1 Figure 1. YEN/EURO EXCHANGE RATE (inverted scale) Z / Z = Zero Interest Rate Policy Blue shade is Quantitative Easing Policy. Source: Federal Reserve Board. 1 Page 3 / June 9, 1 / Japan www.

26 International Reserves 1 1 Figure. JAPAN: INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (billion dollars, nsa) Apr Nongold Reserves (IMF) Holdings of US Treasury Securities* * Includes held by private and official accounts. Source: US Department of the Treasury, Office of International Affairs and International Monetary Fund. 3 Figure 3. JAPAN: INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (billion dollars, yearly change) Nongold Reserves (IMF) Holdings of US Treasury Securities* Apr * Includes held by private and official accounts. Source: US Department of the Treasury, Office of International Affairs and International Monetary Fund. Page / June 9, 1 / Japan www.

27 Figure. US Capital Inflows: Japan JAPAN: NET SECURITIES PURCHASES BY FOREIGNERS FROM US RESIDENTS (billion dollars) Grand Total* 1-month sum 3-month sum annual rate US Corporate Stocks US Treasury Bonds & Notes Apr Apr Apr US Government Agency Bonds Apr US Corporate Bonds -1 1 Apr * Includes Treasury bonds and notes, government agency bonds, US corporate bonds, US corporate stocks, foreign bonds, and foreign stocks. Source: US Treasury International Capital System. - Page / June 9, 1 / Japan www.

28 1 1 Figure. JAPAN & US: NOMINAL GDP (yearly percent change) Japan vs. US GDP & Yield 1 1 Q United States Japan Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Haver Analytics Figure. JAPAN & US: 1-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS (percent) United States Japan Jun Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors and Financial Times. -1 Page / June 9, 1 / Japan www.

29 1 1 Figure 7. Japan vs. US GDP & Yield US TREASURY BOND YIELD & NOMINAL GDP GROWTH Year Bond Yield (percent) (.91) Nominal GDP (yearly percent change) (.7) Q1 Jun Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve Board. 1 Figure. JAPAN: BOND YIELD & NOMINAL GDP Year Government Bond Yield (percent) Nominal GDP (yearly percent change) 1 Q Source: Haver Analytics Page 7 / June 9, 1 / Japan www.

30 Figure 9. Consumer Confidence JAPAN: CONSUMER CONFIDENCE & MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX Jun Jun 3 Consumer Confidence ( + better, sa) (3.7) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (3.1) Source: Cabinet Office of Japan, Nikkei/Markit, and Haver Analytics.. 3 Page / June 9, 1 / Japan www.

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