US Economic Indicators: Employment
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1 US Economic Indicators: Employment February, 18 Dr. Edward Yardeni Debbie Johnson Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Employment & Labor Force 1 Household & Payroll Employment -3 Full-Time vs Part-Time 4 Part-Time Employment 5 Participation Rates 6 Payroll Employment Diffusion Indexes 7 Payroll Employment Adjustments 8-9 Hours Worked 1 Misc February, 18 / US Economic Indicators: Employment www.
3 Figure 1. Employment & Labor Force EMPLOYMENT INDICATORS (monthly change, thousands, sa) Labor Force (518) Household Employment (49) Payroll Employment () Household Measure Comparable to Payroll Measure (-155) New Hires Minus Separations (86) Nov Page 1 / February, 18 / US Economic Indicators: Employment www.
4 Figure. LABOR FORCE & WORKING-AGE POPULATION (millions, sa, ratio scale) Civilian Noninstitutional Population (56.8) Labor Force (161.1) Household & Payroll Employment Not in Labor Force (95.7) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Figure 3. LABOR FORCE & EMPLOYMENT MEASURES (millions, sa) Labor Force Household Employment Household Measure Compatible with Payroll Measure Payroll Employment BLS Private Payrolls ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment Page / February, 18 / US Economic Indicators: Employment www.
5 98 Figure 4. Household & Payroll Employment PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT (as a percent of Household Employment) Figure 5. LABOR FORCE & HOUSEHOLD EMPLOYMENT (percent of civilian noninstitutional working-age population) Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate* Employment-to-Population Rate** * Labor force divided by working-age population. ** Household employment divided by working-age population. Page 3 / February, 18 / US Economic Indicators: Employment www.
6 Full-Time vs Part-Time Figure 6. HOUSEHOLD EMPLOYMENT* (millions, sa) Full-Time Part-Time Part-Time / Total * Total, full-time, and part-time employment are separately seasonally adjusted Page 4 / February, 18 / US Economic Indicators: Employment www.
7 Part-Time Employment 3 Figure 7. PART-TIME EMPLOYMENT (millions) 3 Part-Time Employment* Part-Time Employment For Economic Reasons* Temporary Help Services** * From Household Survey. ** From Establishment Survey Figure 8. PART-TIME EMPLOYMENT FOR ECONOMIC REASONS (percent of total part-time employment) Page 5 / February, 18 / US Economic Indicators: Employment www.
8 68 Figure 9. CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE* (percent) Participation Rates Total (6.7) * Labor force as percent of working-age population. 44 Figure 1. CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE NON-PARTICIPATION RATE* (not in the labor force as percent of civilian noninstitutional working-age population) * Working-age population data are not seasonally adjusted. Page 6 / February, 18 / US Economic Indicators: Employment www.
9 8 7 Figure 11. Payroll Employment Diffusion Indexes PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT DIFFUSION INDEX (% of industries reporting higher payrolls) Private Payrolls One-Month Span (57.9) Three-Month Span (68.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Figure 1. PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT DIFFUSION INDEX (% of industries reporting higher payrolls) Manufacturing Payrolls One-Month Span Three-Month Span Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 7 / February, 18 / US Economic Indicators: Employment www.
10 Figure 13. Payroll Employment Adjustments PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT: REVISIONS (monthly change, thousands) Most Recent Less First-Reported Dec Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. -35 Figure 14. PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT: REVISIONS (1-month sum, millions) 1 Most Recent Less First-Reported 1 Dec Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. -3 Page 8 / February, 18 / US Economic Indicators: Employment www.
11 3 Figure 15. Payroll Employment Adjustments PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT: BIRTH/DEATH ADJUSTMENT (thousands, nsa) Figure 16. PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT: BIRTH/DEATH ADJUSTMENT (1-month sum, thousands) Page 9 / February, 18 / US Economic Indicators: Employment www.
12 Hours Worked Figure 17. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS Manufacturing Total Private: Production & Nonsupervisory Employees Total Private Industries Figure 18. INDEX OF AGGREGATE WEEKLY HOURS (=1) Total Private: Production & Nonsupervisory Employees Total Private Industries Manufacturing Page 1 / February, 18 / US Economic Indicators: Employment www.
13 Figure 19. Misc. BIRTH/DEATH ADJUSTMENT vs. ADP SMALL BUSINESS PAYROLLS (millions) Month Sum in Birth/ Death Adjustment 1-Month Change in ADP Small Business Payrolls Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Figure. PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT & LABOR FORCE (yearly change, millions) Civilian Labor Force Payroll Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 11 / February, 18 / US Economic Indicators: Employment www.
14 4 Figure 1. LABOR FORCE GROWTH (yearly change, millions) Misc Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 6 4 Figure. HOUSEHOLD EMPLOYMENT (yearly change, millions) Page 1 / February, 18 / US Economic Indicators: Employment www.
15 7 5 Figure 3. Misc. PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT MEASURES: NONFARM PRIVATE PAYROLLS (monthly change, thousands, sa) ADP (33.) PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT MEASURES: NONFARM PRIVATE PAYROLLS (monthly change, thousands, sa) BLS (196.) NEW HIRES & SEPARATIONS (thousands, sa) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and ADP. Total Hires Minus Separations (86.) Nov Page 13 / February, 18 / US Economic Indicators: Employment www.
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