US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts
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1 US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts November 2, 217 Dr. Edward Yardeni Mali Quintana Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents US Federal Budget 1-4 US Federal Outlays & Receipts 5-6 US Federal Tax Receipts 7-9 Federal Government Receipts 1 US Federal Outlays US Treasury Social Benefits Deficit Custom Duties & Merchandise Imports November 2, 217 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.
3 Figure 1. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET BALANCE (billion dollars, 12-month sum) US Federal Budget Figure US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS & RECEIPTS 3.7 (trillion dollars, 12-month sum, ratio scale) Outlays (4.) 2.3 Receipts (3.3) Page 1 / November 2, 217 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.
4 12 11 Figure 3. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS (as a percent of total outlays*) US Federal Budget * 12-month sum. 5 4 Figure 4. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEFICIT (as a percent of federal outlays*) * 12-month sum. Page 2 / November 2, 217 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.
5 Figure 5. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET BALANCE (billion dollars, 12-month sum) US Federal Budget Total Total Excluding Net Interest Paid Figure 6. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT NET INTEREST PAID (billion dollars, 12-month sum) Page 3 / November 2, 217 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.
6 Figure 7. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET DEFICIT (as a percent of nominal GDP) US Federal Budget Q Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Figure 8. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES & RECEIPTS (as a percent of nominal GDP) Expenditures (21.7) Q Q2 Receipts (.5) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 4 / November 2, 217 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.
7 22 Figure 9. US Federal Outlays & Receipts 22 US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS (as a percent of nominal GDP) 2 2 Q2 Average = 17.6 Receipts (.5) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Figure 1. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES (as a percent of nominal GDP) Expenditures (21.7) Q Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 5 / November 2, 217 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.
8 Figure 11. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS (yearly percent change in 12-month sum) US Federal Outlays & Receipts Figure 12. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS (yearly percent change in 12-month sum) Page 6 / November 2, 217 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.
9 Figure 13. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS (trllion dollars, 12-month sum) US Federal Tax Receipts Individual Income Taxes (1.6) Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts* (1.2) Corporate Income Taxes (.3) * Employment and general retirement, unemployment insurance, and other retirement. 6 Figure 14. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS (as a percent of total receipts) Individual Income Taxes Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts* Corporate Income Taxes * Employment and general retirement, unemployment insurance, and other retirement. Page 7 / November 2, 217 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.
10 Figure. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS (yearly percent change in 12-month sum) US Federal Tax Receipts Total Tax Receipts Individual Income Tax Receipts Corporate Income Tax Receipts Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts Source: US Treasury Department, Summary of Receipts by Source, and Outlays by Function of the US Government, Table Page 8 / November 2, 217 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.
11 Figure. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS vs. LEADING INDICATORS Federal Receipts (billion dollars, 12-month sum) Leading Indicators (21=1) US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS vs. COINCIDENT INDICATORS Federal Receipts (billion dollars, 12-month sum) Coincident Indicators (24=1) US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS vs. LAGGING INDICATORS Source: US Treasury Department and The Conference Board. US Federal Tax Receipts Federal Receipts (billion dollars, 12-month sum) Lagging Indicators (24=1) Page 9 / November 2, 217 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.
12 7 Figure 17. Federal Government Receipts GROSS FEDERAL RECEIPTS: TOTAL UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE (billion dollars, 12-month sum) Source: US Treasury Figure. GROSS FEDERAL RECEIPTS: CUSTOM DUTIES (billion dollars, 12-month sum) Source: US Treasury. Page 1 / November 2, 217 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.
13 US Federal Outlays Figure 19. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS (trillion dollars, 12-month sum, ratio scale) Total (4.) Health, Medicare, Income Security, Social Security (2.6) Figure 2. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS (as a percent of total outlays) 7 6 Health, Medicare, Income Security, Social Security Page 11 / November 2, 217 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.
14 US Federal Outlays Figure 21. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS (billion dollars, 12-month sum, ratio scale) Health 11 Medicare Income Security Social Security 3 National Defense Figure 22. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS (as a percent of total outlays) Health Medicare Income Security Social Security National Defense Page 12 / November 2, 217 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.
15 US Federal Outlays Figure 23. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS (billion dollars, 12-month sum, ratio scale) Medicare + Social Security 23 Income Security + Health National Defense Source: US Treasury Figure 24. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS (as a percent of total outlays) Medicare + Social Security Income Security + Health 3 25 National Defense Source: US Treasury. 1 Page 13 / November 2, 217 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.
16 US Federal Outlays 2. Figure 25. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS (trillion dollars, ratio scale) Federal Government Spending in GDP (current dollars, saar) Total Excluding Health, Medicare, Income Security, Social Security (current dollars, 12-month sum) Source: US Treasury Department and Bureau of Economic Analysis Figure 26. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS (trillion dollars, ratio scale) Total (12-month sum) (4.) Federal Government Spending in GDP (saar) (1.3) Q Source: US Treasury Department and Bureau of Economic Analysis..4 Page 14 / November 2, 217 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.
17 US Treasury Social Benefits Deficit Figure 27. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SOCIAL BENEFITS RECEIPTS & OUTLAYS (billion dollars, 12-month sum, ratio scale) Social Security and Medicare Payments Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts Figure 28. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SOCIAL BENEFITS DEFICIT* (billion dollars, 12-month sum) * Social Security and Medicare payments less social insurance and retirement receipts. Source: US Treasury Department, Summary of Receipts by Source, and Outlays by Function of the US Government, Table 9. Page / November 2, 217 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.
18 Figure 29. Custom Duties & Merchandise Imports GROSS FEDERAL RECEIPTS: CUSTOM DUTIES & MERCHANDISE IMPORTS (billion dollars) Merchandise Imports (saar) Custom Duties (12-month sum) Sep Source: US Treasury and US Bureau of the Census. Page / November 2, 217 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.
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