OUTLOOK FOR THE HOUSING MARKET AND THE NORWEGIAN ECONOMY GOVERNOR ØYSTEIN OLSEN
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1 OUTLOOK FOR THE HOUSING MARKET AND THE NORWEGIAN ECONOMY GOVERNOR ØYSTEIN OLSEN Oslo, 7 November 217
2 Topics Outlook for the Norwegian economy The housing market Monetary policy 2
3 Topics Outlook for the Norwegian economy The housing market Monetary policy 3
4 Main trading partners economies improve Quarterly growth. 1) Percent US Euro area Sweden UK 1) Three-quarter moving average Source: Thomson Reuters 4
5 Policy rates abroad have bottomed out Policy rates and estimated forward rates at 6 November US Euro area¹) Sweden UK ) ECB s deposit rate. Eonia from 217 Q3 Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank 5
6 Norway: Growth has picked up Four-quarter percentage change 1) Mainland GDP Regional network indicator ) GDP projection for 217 Q3 and 217 Q4 from MPR 3/17 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 6
7 The krone has tracked the oil price USD per barrel Brent Blend and import-weighted exchange rate index 1) Oil price (l.h.s.) Exchange rate (r.h.s.) 1) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate. Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank 7
8 Improved competitiveness Labour costs in Norway relative to trading partners labour costs 1) Measured in a common currency Measured in domestic currency ) Hourly labour costs in manufacturing. Index 1995 = 1. Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Technical Calculation Committee for Wage Settlements (TBU) and Norges Bank 8
9 Economic policy has contributed Key policy rate. Percent Forecast, September 217 Forecast, March 214 Key policy rate Budget deficit. Percent of trend mainland GDP Structural non-oil deficit 3% of the Government Pension Fund Global Source: Norges Bank Sources: Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank 9
10 Shift in driving forces Share of mainland GDP 1) Non-oil business investment Oil investment Housing investment ) Projections for from MPR 3/17. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 1
11 Topics Outlook for the Norwegian economy The housing market Monetary policy 11
12 Correction in the housing market House prices. Twelve-month percentage change Seasonally adjusted monthly change (l.h.s.) Twelve-month change (r.h.s.) Sources: Eiendomsverdi, Finn.no, Real Estate Norway, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 12
13 Regional differences Twelve-month percentage change Oslo Stavanger Bergen Trondheim Sources: Eiendomsverdi, Finn.no and Real Estate Norway 13
14 House prices are high relative to income Index Q4 = Crises 1 5 House prices/disposable income House prices/disposable income per capita (aged 15-74) Sources: Eiendomsverdi, Finn.no, Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF), Real Estate Norway, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 14
15 More new dwellings than households Number of housing starts and change in number of households 1) 5, 4, 3, 2, Housing starts Change in number of households 1, ) 1) Projections for housing starts and change in number of households for 217. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 15
16 Some tightening of credit standards Households. 2/1 = Substantial/moderate rise/easing, = Approximately unchanged, -1/-2 = Substantial/moderate decline/tightening Change in demand past quarter Change in credit standards past quarter Neste kvartal Next quarter Source: Norges Bank 16
17 Indebtedness remains high Household debt ratio Debt as a percentage of diposable income Projections, MPR 3/ Sources: Eiendomsverdi, Finn.no, Real Estate Norway, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 17
18 Risk of fall in household consumption Share of households. Percent High LTV ratio: Net debt exceeding the market value of the dwelling High DTI ratio: Debt exceeding five times gross income 1 5 LTV DTI Debt-servicing capacity Low debt-servicing capacity: Less than one month s income remaining after payment of interest, minimum principal and ordinary consumption expenditures (on an annual basis) Sources: Norwegian Mapping Authority, SIFO, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 18
19 Topics Outlook for the Norwegian economy The housing market Monetary policy 19
20 Monetary policy in Norway CPI Five-year moving average Inflation target Low and stable inflation Stable developments in output and employment Monetary policy must be robust Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 2
21 Monetary policy Projections in Monetary Policy Report 3/17 4 CPI-ATE 1) Projections 1 Output gap projections ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
22 The Executive Board s assessment and interest rate forecast Key policy rate MPR 3/17 MPR 2/17 On the basis of an overall assessment, the Executive Board decided to keep the key policy rate unchanged at.5% The Executive Board s current assessment of the outlook and the balance of risks suggests that the key policy rate will remain at today s level in the period ahead. Source: Norges Bank 22
23 OUTLOOK FOR THE HOUSING MARKET AND THE NORWEGIAN ECONOMY GOVERNOR ØYSTEIN OLSEN Oslo, 7 November 217
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