2015 Market Review & Outlook. January 29, 2015
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1 2015 Market Review & Outlook January 29, 2015
2 Economic Outlook Jason O. Jackman, CFA President & Chief Investment Officer
3 Percentage Interest Rates Unexpectedly Decline Year Government Yield Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 Jan-2015 Source: Bloomberg U.S. Germany Japan
4 Energy Prices Lower Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Brent Crude ($ per barrel) AAA National Average Gas Price ($ per gallon) Source: Bloomberg
5 Better Economic Growth Real GDP Quarter-over-Quarter Annual Rate 6% Private GDP 8 6 4% Average 3.1% 4 2 2% % -2% % -10-6% Private GDP 4th Quarter Moving Average Source: Bureau of Economics Analysis
6 Labor Market Continues to Improve % 11% Unemployment Rate 6,000 Annual Change in Payrolls (# thousands) 10% Oct. 2010: 10.0% 4, % 2,000 8% 7% 0 6% -2,000 5% 4% December 2014: 5.6% -4,000 3% ,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
7 Consumer Sentiment Improving Jan-95 Nov-95 Sep-96 Jul-97 May-98 Mar-99 Jan-00 Nov-00 Sep-01 Jul-02 May-03 Mar-04 Jan-05 Nov-05 Sep-06 Jul-07 May-08 Mar-09 Jan-10 Nov-10 Sep-11 Jul-12 May-13 Mar-14 Jan-15 $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 Household Net Worth (billions) 3Q07: $69,094 3Q14: $81, Consumer Confidence Source: Federal Reserve, Conference Board Overall Low Income (25-35K)
8 Jan-81 Apr-82 Jul-83 Oct-84 Jan-86 Apr-87 Jul-88 Manufacturing Strong Oct-89 Jan-91 Apr-92 Jul-93 Oct-94 Jan-96 Apr-97 Jul-98 Oct-99 Jan-01 Apr-02 Jul-03 Oct-04 Jan-06 Apr-07 Jul-08 Oct-09 Jan-11 Apr-12 Jul-13 Oct ISM Manufacturing Index Manufacturing Expansion Manufacturing Contraction Source: Bloomberg
9 Fed Between Tapering and Tightening Percentage Unconventional Fed Policy ($ millions) Projected Fed Funds Rate 5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 QE1 QE2 QE ,500, ,000,000 2,500,000 2,000, ,500,000 1,000, , Total Assets Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve /31/ /31/ /31/ /31/ /31/2018 FED Futures
10 Divergent Central Bank Policy Central Bank Balance Sheet (% GDP) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 91% Forecast 31% 19% Fed ECB BOJ Source: Bloomberg/Goldman Sachs
11 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Dollar Stronger Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec Currency Comparison (Indexed to 100 as of 12/31/09) Dollar Euro Yen Source: Bloomberg
12 Disparate Global Growth Source: International Monetary Fund Real Economic Growth (annual % change) est est. Advanced Economics 1.3% 1.8% 2.4% 2.4% U.S. 2.2% 2.4% 3.6% 3.3% Euro Area -0.5% 0.8% 1.2% 1.4% Japan 1.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.8% Emerging & Developing Economies 4.7% 4.4% 4.3% 4.7% Asia (Emg/Dev) 6.6% 6.5% 6.4% 6.2% China 7.8% 7.4% 6.8% 6.3% Russia 1.3% 0.6% -3.0% -1.0% Latin America 2.8% 1.2% 1.3% 2.3% Middle East/North Africa 2.2% 2.8% 3.3% 3.9% World 3.3% 3.3% 3.5% 3.7%
13 Economic Conclusions US economic improvement: less fiscal drag, improving labor market and solid manufacturing sector. Real economic growth expected to remain at 3% or above. Inflation remains benign with limited wage gains and commodity price weakness. Federal Reserve policy in transition: size of balance sheet will be maintained until Fed hikes rates in 2015 (timing will be data dependent). Global landscape: U.S. a bright spot, while many other developed economies are battling deflation. Many emerging economies face growth challenges. Low interest rates are a global phenomenon.
14 Market Outlook Jason M. Farler, CFA Portfolio Manager
15 2014 Asset Class Overview 20% Higher Risk Lower Risk 15% 13.7% 10% 7.6% 5% 4.9% 2.4% 3.1% 0% -5% -4.9% -2.2% -1.7% -0.6% -10% Large-Cap Stocks Developed International Stocks Emerging Market Stocks Small-Cap Stocks High Yield Bonds Master Limited Partnerships Gold Bond Alternatives Investment Grade Bonds Source: Bloomberg
16 Valuations: Company Expectations Are No Longer Low 30 S&P 500 Index Forward P/E Ratio Year Average (16.2x) 17.2x Year Average (13.9x) when Real Rates are low Source: Ned Davis Research, Inc.; Zacks Research; FactSet
17 Valuations: High Expectations Generally Lead To Lower Returns Subsequent 10-year Total Return Historical Valuations: S&P 500 Price/10-year Normalized Earnings vs. Subsequent 10-year Returns S&P 500, 1881 to Present 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% Current S&P 10-year Normalized P/E = 26.7* S&P year Normalized P/E *As of 1/1/15. S&P 10-year Normalized P/E is the price divided by the average of the last ten years of earnings inflation-adjusted. Source: Bloomberg
18 Corporate Revenue and Earnings Growth Has Been Strong S&P 500 Earnings and Revenues Per Share $1,200 $120 $1,100 Revenue per Share Earnings per Share $100 $1,000 $80 $900 $60 $800 $700 $40 $600 $20 $ est $0 Earnings Per Share Revenue Per Share Source: Bloomberg
19 Annualized Rolling 1-year Standard Deviation Market Volatility Has Been Low: Expect Increased Volatility Going Forward 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Stock Market Volatility 1989 to Present Current U.S. Developed International Emerging Markets Average CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) Source: Bloomberg; U.S. is represented by the S&P 500 Index, Developed International is represented by the MSCI EAFE Index and Emerging Markets is represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
20 Oil: Sharp Decline May Lead to Earnings and Market Tailwinds Good Bad Benefits Risks prices could go higher EU $17.6 trillion OPEC $7.0 trillion U.S. $16.8 trillion Russia $3.5 trillion China $16.1 trillion Brazil $3.0 trillion > U.S. Consumer Household earning $50K per year spends 21% of after-tax income on energy > Weaker-than-expected U.S. Dollar > Geopolitical stress Total: India $6.8 trillion Indonesia $2.4 trillion Japan $4.7 trillion Canada $1.5 trillion Korea $1.7 trillion Australia $1.1 trillion $64 trillion* Or 62% of world economy Chile $0.4 trillion > The consumer is global, not just U.S. theme > Lower input costs for transportation, consumer staples, industrial and utilities > Little spare capacity to meet demand of 92 million barrels per day > Stronger global growth and consumption Norway $0.3 trillion Total: $19 trillion* Or 19% of world economy Source: Cornerstone, WSJ
21 International Economies and Markets Weights in MSCI All Country World Index (% global market capitalization, float adjusted) Share of Global GDP (current dollars, USD) Japan, 7% Pacific, 5% Canada, 4% Japan, 7% Pacific, 5% Canada, 2% United States, 23% Emerging Markets, 11% United States, 49% U.K., 8% Emerging Markets, 40% Europe ex-u.k., 20% Europe ex-u.k., 17% U.K., 3% Source: MSCI
22 International: Valuation Merits and Investment Opportunities Valuation Metrics Stock Dividend Yields Fwd Price to Earnings Price to Book Price to Sales U.S. (S&P 500) % 4% Developed International (MSCI EAFE) Emerging Markets (MSCI EM) United Kingdom (FTSE 100) Germany (DAX) Japan (NIKKEI) France (CAC 40) % 2% 1% 0% Spain (IBEX 35) Valuations of both developed and emerging markets look favorable Yields are higher in most international markets Margins are lower for international companies with more room to move higher Source: MSCI, yields as of 6/30/2014, Bloomberg
23 International: Diversification Works, but Patience is Warranted Global vs. U.S. Stock Portfolio Returns can move in cycles $140,000,000 35% $120,000,000 30% 29.0% $100,000,000 25% $80,000,000 $60,000,000 20% 15% 15.9% 14.8% $40,000,000 $20,000,000 $- 10% 5% 0% -5% 3.3% -4.1% 6.1% 7.3% 0.0% -1.0% Global Portfolio S&P % Annualized Return Standard Deviation Starting Value Ending Value Global Equity Portfolio 11.4% 14.9% $1M $128,393,142 S&P % 15.4% $1M $88,750,665 Source: Morningstar *Returns shown on annualized basis
24 Where We Are Finding Value In the Equity Market Technology: Favorable economic backdrop, improving revenue, dividends and dividend growth Energy: Favorable valuation, dividends, selectively focusing on quality balance sheets U.S. Consumer: Stable dividends, solid balance sheets, best of the interest rate sensitive sectors, beneficiaries of lower energy prices and higher employment International: Favorable valuation, lower margins (more potential for margin increases), powerful international brands, higher dividends, diversification
25 Future 10-Year Total Return Bonds: Expected Returns Not Compelling Stay the Course 14% Current High-Quality Portfolio Yield = 2.0% 3.0% Treasury Rates (1/19/15) 12% 2.5% 10% 8% 2.0% 6% 1.5% 4% 1.0% 2% 0.5% 0% Beginning Yield Level 0.0% 3 month 1-Yr 5-Yr 10-Yr 30-Yr Source: Ibbotson
26 Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs): Solid Business Models, Yield and Yield Growth Distribution/Dividend Yields MLPs 6.1% REITs 3.5% High Yield Bonds 6.7% S&P % 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Recent distribution increases in midstream MLPs and pipeline companies January 15 (year over year growth) Enterprise Product Partners (EPD) +6% Plains All American Partners (PAA) +10% Kinder Morgan (KMI) +10% Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP) +19% Businesses less sensitive to price of underlying commodity MLPs continue to offer attractive yields and yield growth While price volatility is present, distributions have been solid Not all MLPs are created equal (mid-stream vs. others) Attractive valuations Source: Bloomberg
27 High Yield Bonds: Yield Opportunities and Attractive Risk Adjusted Returns 25% High Yield Bond Spreads (Merrill Lynch High Yield Master Index) 20% 15% Current Yield: 6.69% 10% 5% 0% Source: Bloomberg High yield bonds offer compelling expected returns and yields Low interest rate risk Half the volatility of U.S. Stock Market
28 First Half of Decade vs. Expectations for Second Half 2,000 S&P 500 Annual Returns 1, Asset Class 2 nd Half Expectations 1, % Interest Rates 3.5% Bonds % 15.4% U.S. Large Cap 4-6% 5.3% International Stocks 6-7% 3% 2% 16.7% MLPs 8-10% 8.9% High Yield Bonds 3-5% 1.0% Bond Alternatives 3-5% 1% Source: Bloomberg
29 Asset Allocation Market Barometer
30 Concluding Points Expect continued volatility and heightened awareness to earnings. Interest rates are poised to move higher. Know what you own in your bond portfolio. Lower energy prices could lead to geopolitical stress. Continue to stay the course on diversification with international stocks, high yield and MLPs. Stay focused on the long-term.
31 Cincinnati Columbus Dayton Thank You!
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