The Arkansas Economic Outlook
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1 The Arkansas Economic Outlook Dr. Michael Pakko Chief Economist and State Economic Forecaster Institute for Economic Advancement, UALR November 5, 2015 Disclaimer: The views expressed are my own, and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the Federal Reserve System, the University of Arkansas at Little Rock, the University of Arkansas System, or the Institute for Economic Advancement.
2 Arkansas Experience Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
3 Arkansas Experience Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
4 Arkansas Experience Through most of the economic recovery ( ) Arkansas has lagged the nation particularly in employment Since 2014, employment growth has accelerated positive signs in manufacturing and construction. Income growth has been relatively strong, but wage growth weak slow consumer spending. Outlook: Slow, but positive economic growth.
5 Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
6 Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
7 Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
8 Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
9 Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
10 Taxable Sales Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.
11 Taxable Sales Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.
12 Taxable Sales Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.
13 Home Sales Sources: Arkansas Realtors Association, Institute for Economic Advancement.
14 Home Sales Sources: Arkansas Realtors Association, Institute for Economic Advancement.
15 Home Sales Sources: Arkansas Realtors Association, Institute for Economic Advancement.
16 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment
17 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment
18 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment
19 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment
20 Employment Arkansas Nonfarm Payroll Employment Employment changes (thousands of jobs), December September 2015 As Published Expected Revision Change Mining & Logging Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation & Utilities Information Services Financial Services Professional & Business Services Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Services Other Services Government TOTAL
21 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment
22 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment
23 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment
24 Economic Forecasts It s tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
25 Forecast Methodology Model: Arkansas Baseline from Moody s Analytics. Part of a structural econometric model of the U.S. Economy Linked to US forecast, with relationships estimated by sector Baseline forecast from Moody s macroeconomic U.S. model Alternative Forecast Paths: Moody s Wells Fargo Wall Street Journal Blue Chip Consensus NABE
26 Employment Q4/Q4 Growth K 0.1% 22.4K 1.9% 17.6K 1.5% 15.7K 1.3% 13.8K 1.1%
27 Employment Q4/Q4 Growth K 0.1% 18.9K 1.6% 14.0K 1.2% 15.6K 1.3% 13.7K 1.1% Including expected revision in 2016
28 Employment Arkansas Nonfarm Payroll Employment Growth Forecasts for 2015:Q4-2017:Q4 Employment changes Thousands of Jobs Percent Mining & Logging Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation & Utilities Information Services Financial Services Professional & Business Services Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Services Other Services Government TOTAL
29 Real GDP
30 Real GDP Q4/Q4 Growth (%)
31 Personal Income Q4/Q4 Growth (%)
32 Personal Income
33 Personal Income
34 Personal Income
35 Real Personal Income Q4/Q4 Growth (%)
36 Retail Sales Q4/Q4 Growth (%)
37 Retail Sales Q4/Q4 Growth (%)
38 Retail Sales Q4/Q4 Growth (%)
39 Retail Sales Q4/Q4 Growth (%)
40 Home Sales Sales (Pct. Change) K 11.9% 28.1K 7.3% 30.6K 8.7% 34.1K 11.5% 32.8K 3.7%
41 Unemployment End of Year (Q4)
42 Arkansas Economist For more information and analysis of the Arkansas Economy, visit the Arkansas Economist:
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