The Arkansas Economic Outlook Focus on Hot Springs

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1 The Arkansas Economic Outlook Focus on Hot Springs Dr. Michael Pakko Chief Economist and State Economic Forecaster Institute for Economic Advancement, UALR Regional Economic Forecast Hot Springs December 16, 2015

2 Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

3 Gross Domestic Product Average: 2.1% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

4 Arkansas Experience Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

5 Arkansas Experience Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

6 Arkansas Experience Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

7 Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

8 Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

9 Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

10 Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

11 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment

12 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment

13 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment

14 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment

15 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment

16 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment

17 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment

18 Southern West Central Arkansas Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Institute for Economic Advancement.

19 Southern West Central Arkansas Total: 70,830 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

20 Southern West Central Arkansas Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

21 Southern West Central Arkansas Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

22 * Seasonally adjusted data. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment Arkansas Nonfarm Payroll Employment - October 2015* Employment changes (thousands of jobs) from: Month ago Year ago Feb 2010 Dec 2007 Mining & Logging Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation & Utilities Information Services Financial Services Professional & Business Services Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Services Other Services Government TOTAL

23 Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Seasonally adjusted by the Institute for Economic Advancement.

24 Employment Arkansas -0.3% U.S. 1.6%

25 Employment Arkansas 13.1% U.S. 8.8%

26 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment

27 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment

28 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment

29 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment

30 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment

31 Taxable Sales Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

32 Taxable Sales Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

33 Taxable Sales Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

34 Taxable Sales Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Institute for Economic Advancement.

35 Per Capita Personal Income 50,000 Per Capita Personal Income 45,000 40,000 Dollars 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 U.S. Arkansas Garland SWC Percent (As Percent of U.S.) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

36 Per Capita Personal Income

37 Per Capita Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

38 Per Capita Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

39 Per Capita Personal Income Regional Price Parities, 2013 Regional price parities All items Goods Services Rents Other Fayetteville Springdale Rogers, AR MO Fort Smith, AR OK Hot Springs, AR Jonesboro, AR Little Rock North Little Rock Conway, AR Memphis, TN MS AR Pine Bluff, AR Texarkana, TX AR Arkansas Arkansas (Metropolitan Portion) Arkansas (Nonmetropolitan Portion) United States (Nonmetropolitan Portion) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

40 Per Capita Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

41 Arkansas Economist For more information and analysis of the Arkansas Economy, visit the Arkansas Economist:

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