Economic and Fiscal Update
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1 Economic and Fiscal Update OCTOBER 2012 Donald J. Bruce, Professor Center for Business and Economic Research The University of Tennessee, Knoxville
2 88Q2 89Q2 90Q2 91Q2 92Q2 93Q2 94Q2 95Q2 96Q2 97Q2 98Q2 99Q2 00Q2 01Q2 02Q2 03Q2 04Q2 05Q2 06Q2 07Q2 08Q2 09Q2 10Q2 11Q2 12Q2 Percent Change from Previous Quarter SAAR Growth in Quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product (Chained 2005 Dollars)
3 Risks to Economic Growth 3 Fiscal Cliff Collapse of EU or monetary union War in middle east or oil price spike Hard landing in China Housing falters again
4 Percenage change, SAAR Growth in Quarterly Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (Chained 2005 Dollars) Q2 89Q4 91Q2 92Q4 94Q2 95Q4 97Q2 98Q4 00Q2 01Q4 03Q2 04Q4 06Q2 07Q4 09Q2 10Q4 12Q2
5 Rate Interest Rates and Inflation Federal Funds Rate, % per annum Inflation, year over year Q1 02Q1 03Q1 04Q1 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1
6 Percentage change, year over year Inflation Will Remain Subdued CPI-All Items CPI-Core (excl. food & energy) PPI-Industrial Commodities Source: IHS Global Insight, Inc.
7 Unit Sales of New Light Vehicles Housing Starts (in millions) Unit Sales of New Light Vehicles and Housing Starts Unit Sales Of New Light Vehicles Housing Starts (in millions)
8 Percentage change, annual rate U.S. Nonresidential Fixed Investment in Equipment & Software and Structures Equip & Software Structures Source: IHS Global Insight, Inc.
9 Percentage Change from Prev Qtr, Annual Rate Growth in Quarterly Real Private Residential Fixed Investment and Housing Starts (Chained 2005 Dollars) Residential Fixed Investment Housing Starts Q2 90Q2 92Q2 94Q2 96Q2 98Q2 00Q2 02Q2 04Q2 06Q2 08Q2 10Q2 12Q2
10 Number of units in thousands U.S. Building Permits Stuck in the Trough 10 2,500 2,000 Total Permits Total Starts Single-Family Permits Single-Family Starts 1,500 1, Source: U.S. Census Bureau and IHS Global Insight, Inc.
11 Number of units Tennessee Building Permits Poised for Rebound 11 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 Total Single-family 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Jan- 05 Jul- 05 Jan- 06 Jul- 06 Jan- 07 Jul- 07 Jan- 08 Jul- 08 Jan- 09 Jul- 09 Jan- 10 Jul- 10 Jan- 11 Jul- 11 Jan- 12 Jul- 12 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey (as reported in the State of the Cities Data System [SOCDS] database).
12 Exchange rate Exports - Imports, Billions of Chained 2005 Dollars 12 U.S./Euro Foreign Exchange Rate and Real Exports Less Imports U.S./Euro Foreign Exchange Rate Exports less Imports Q1 00Q1 01Q1 02Q1 03Q1 04Q1 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1
13 Billions of dollars Unified Federal Budget Surplus Fiscal Year
14 Fiscal Cliff 14 Sequestration Elimination of extended unemployment benefits Expiration of Bush tax cuts Elimination of payroll tax decrease Alternative minimum tax
15 Sep-94 Sep-95 Sep-96 Sep-97 Sep-98 Sep-99 Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Rate 15 Tennessee and U.S. Unemployment Rates (seasonally adjusted) U.S. TN Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
16 Index, month #1 = Tennessee Employment Doing Worse than Any Other Modern Business Cycle Nov 1980 Jan 1990 Jul 2001 Mar 2007 Dec Number of months from recession start month Note: Total nonfarm employment seasonally adjusted data indexed to the beginning month of each recession. Source: Calculated by CBER using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics; and CBER-UT.
17 Sep-94 Sep-95 Sep-96 Sep-97 Sep-98 Sep-99 Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Percentage change, same month last year Tennessee and U.S. Employment Growth (seasonally adjusted) % 4.0% 2.0% U.S. TN 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
18 Tennessee Job Growth by Sector (August 2012 over August 2011) 18 Mining, Logging, and Construction Durable Goods Education and Health Services Government Non-Durable Goods Leisure and Hospitality Total Private Other Services Professional and Business Services Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Financial Activities -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% Growth Rate
19 Nonfarm Employment Growth, Tennessee MSAs (August 2012 over August 2011) 19 Clarksville, TN-KY Knoxville, TN Jackson, TN Memphis, TN-MS-AR Kings-Bristol-Bristol, TN-VA Cleveland, TN Chattanooga, TN-GA TN Johnson City, TN Nash-Davidson-Murf-Franklin, TN Morristown, TN 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% Growth Rate
20 Nonfarm Employment Growth, Tennessee MSAs (2 nd Quarter 2012 over 2 nd Quarter 2011 ) 20 Knoxville, TN Clarksville, TN-KY Jackson, TN Memphis, TN-MS-AR TN Johnson City, TN Nash-Davidson-Murf-Franklin, TN Chattanooga, TN-GA Cleveland, TN Kings-Bristol-Bristol, TN-VA Morristown, TN -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% Growth Rate
21 TN as % of US Tennessee Per Capita Personal Income As a Percentage of U.S., % 92% 91% 90% 89% 88% 87% 86% 85% 84% 83% 82%
22 Growth in Adjusted Tax Collections,
23 Change in Total Taxes July-March, FY2011 to FY U.S. = 4.5% 7.4% Less than 3.0% ( 18 ) 3.0% to 6.6% ( 16 ) Greater than 6.6% ( 16 ) Source: Center for Business and Economic Research,
24 Tax Revenues (in millions) Tennessee Tax Revenues, Total and as a Share of Personal Income, As a percentage of personal income, tax revenues are at historical lows
25 Growth in Sales Tax Revenue (Adjusted for Tax Increases) (3- month moving average) 25
26 Sales Tax Collections by Category of Sales (Quarter Ending July 2012) 26
27 U.S. Forecast Summary 27 Slow GDP growth of just under 2% Stable consumption growth and residential investment alongside slower business investment and net exports Continued low inflation under 2% Slow housing recovery picks up steam Fueled by continued low interest rates Sluggish labor market High unemployment (8%) and low job growth (<2%) Federal deficit/debt paralysis
28 Tennessee Forecast Summary 28 Non-farm employment growth of 1.4% Continued gains in manufacturing Keeping pace with the national forecast Slow decline in unemployment to 8.1% Slightly above the national rate throughout Personal income growth of 4.2% Faster than national income growth Taxable sales growth of 2.2% Down somewhat from recent high growth
29 Center for Business & Economic Research 29 College of Business Administration The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 716 Stokely Management Center 916 Volunteer Boulevard Knoxville, Tennessee phone: fax:
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