SAME/ACEC June Conference. The Outlook for the U.S. and Washington Area Economies In 2013 and Beyond
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1 6/24/23 SAME/ACEC June Conference The Outlook for the U.S. and Washington Area Economies In 23 and Beyond Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University June 25, 23 The U.S. Economy: Recent Performance and Outlook GMU Center for Regional Analysis
2 6/24/23 25 Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Four Recessions % Change in GDP* Q3 99-Q 2-Q4 29-Q2 *in 25 Chained Dollars Quarters After Trough Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Contributions to Post Recession Recoveries Average Growth After 5 Quarters Avg % Chg GDP Personal Consumption Residential Investment Exports Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Q3 99-Q 2-Q4 29-Q2 Recession..8 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2
3 6/24/23 Percent of GDP Decreasing Role of Residential Investment % of GDP 5 Quarters Post-Recession 7.% 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.%.% 5.2% 3.4% 3.5% 6.2% 5.% 4.3% 2.7% 2.9% 982-Q3 99-Q 2-Q4 29-Q2.% Quarters After Start of Recession Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices Mfg N-Mfg Source: Institute for Supply Management GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
4 6/24/23 (s) 4 2 Annual Change in Payroll Jobs US Month-Over-Year May = M U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector May 22 May 23 Ranked by Size in 23 Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Prof. & Bus. Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Financial Construction Wlse Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Federal Govt. Information -73 (s) Total = 2, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 589 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 4
5 6/24/23 U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector Apr 23 May 23 Ranked by Size in 23 Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Prof. & Bus. Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Financial Construction Wlse Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Federal Govt. Information (s) Total = 75 (.) (5.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis (s) Initial Claims for Unemployment 2-Present 4-Week Moving Average June Source: Department of Labor GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5
6 6/24/23 U.S. Unemployment Rate % May = 7.6 GI FCST Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), IHS Global Insight June, 23 5 % Consumer Prices 2-28 Forecast > > > > > Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight June, 23 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 6
7 6/24/23 Interest Rates Forecast > > > > Yr -Yr Treas Fed Source: IHS Global Insight June, 23 Consumer Confidence Expectations Current Situation May-8 May-9 May- May- May-2 May-3 Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
8 6/24/23 U.S. New and Existing Home Sales (s) Existing (Left Axis) New (Right Axis) (s) Source: National Association of Home Builders (New), National Association of Realtors (Existing) Residential Construction and Resales Forecasts (millions of Units) Year Housing Starts Existing House Sales Source: IHS Global Insight US Executive Summary June, 23 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
9 6/24/23 U.S. Economic Performance % Forecast > > > > > GDP Residential Fixed Non-Res: Structures State & Local Federal Bus. Inv.-Eq & Sfwr Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Global Insight June, 23 % 6. U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: Forecast > > > > Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Global Insight June, 23 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9
10 6/24/23 The Washington Economy: Recent Performance and Outlook WMSA Payroll Job Change: Private Sector The Great Recession and Recovery Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. -48 Aug 28-Feb 2 Feb 2-May (s) Total -59 Total GMU Center for Regional Analysis
11 6/24/23 New York Houston Los Angeles Dallas Chicago SF-Oakland Miami Atlanta Phoenix Detroit Seattle Boston WASHINGTON Minneapolis Philadelphia Metro Area Comparisons Job Change Largest Metro Areas (s) (s) Largest Job Markets Job Change: 2 22 Washington + 32, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
12 6/24/23 (s) Largest Job Markets Job Change: May 22 May 23 Washington + 48, Annual Job Change Washington MSA, Annual Data Annual Month over Year (s) GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2
13 6/24/23 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector May 22 May 23 Washington MSA (s) Total = 48, Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Apr 23 May 23 Washington MSA (s) Total = 4, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
14 6/24/23 (s) Annual Data Annual Job Change District of Columbia, Annual Month over Year Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector May 22 May 23 District of Columbia (s) Total GMU Center for Regional Analysis 4
15 6/24/23 (s) Annual Data Annual Job Change Suburban Maryland, Annual Month over Year Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector May 22 May 23 Suburban Maryland (s) Total 6, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5
16 6/24/23 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector April 23 May 23 Suburban Maryland (s) Total 9, (s) Annual Data Annual Job Change Northern Virginia, Annual Month over Year GMU Center for Regional Analysis 6
17 6/24/23 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector May 22 May 23 Northern Virginia -3 (s) Total 23, Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector April 23 May 23 Northern Virginia -4 - (s) Total 9, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
18 6/24/23 2 Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area, DC 7.5 U.S. 6.2 SMD 5. MSA NVA 2 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted) % Largest Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate April US 7.5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted) GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
19 6/24/23 Housing Market Trends in the Washington Area Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-Year 2 23, MSA May = - 8.% Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis. Total monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month. GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9
20 6/24/ Total Listings Per Sale May Each Year PG 5 PW DC 5 LDN ARL MONT FFX Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis (s) Median House Sales Price Washington MSA $394.2K May 23 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2
21 6/24/23 Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA All Housing Types % Annual Change 3 Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis % Average Sales Price Percent Change District of Columbia All Housing Types Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2
22 6/24/23 Average Sales Price Percent Change Suburban Maryland All Housing Types % Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5 Average Sales Price Percent Change Northern Virginia All Housing Types % Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 22
23 6/24/ Washington MSA Building Permits 2 23, 3-Month Mvg Avg Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Federal Spending Trends in the Washington Area GMU Center for Regional Analysis 23
24 6/24/23 2 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 2. % Other Federal.7 % Local Serving Activities 34.8% Total Federal 39.8% Fed Wages & Salaries.% Procurement 9.% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis $ Billions Federal Procurement in the Washington Metro Area, TOTAL = $,23.5 Billion $8. B $75.6 B Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report GMU Center for Regional Analysis 24
25 6/24/23 Professional & Business Services Washington MSA (s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Tot 22 = 72,3 s Federal Employment in the Washington Metro Area, Eisenhower - 5 Kennedy Johnson + 74 Nixon - Ford Carter Reagan Bush Clinton Bush Obama Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 25
26 6/24/23 (s) Annual Data Federal Government Washington MSA Annual Month over Year Apr Jan Oct Jul Apr Jan Oct Jul Apr Jan Oct Jul Apr Jan Oct Jul Apr Jan Oct Jul Apr Jan Tot 22 = 377,4 Summary for Federal Spending Trends in the Washington Metropolitan Area, 2-22 Federal Procurement Outlays declined 8.4% between FY 2 and FY 22. Federal employment has declined since peaking in July 2, losing 8,7 jobs or 2.25%. Federal payroll declined by.6% between FY 2 and FY 2 and will continue to decline as the workforce shrinks and older workers retire and are replaced by younger workers. GMU Center for Regional Analysis 26
27 6/24/23 Federal Budget Trends and Outlook (dollars in billions) Year Annual % Change Budget Deficit 27.2 $ , , , , Source: IHS Global Insight US Executive Summary June, 23 DOD Procurement Forecast (in billions of current dollars) Year Products Services Total 2 $277.6 $25.2 $ * * *average annual % change Sources: Deltek; GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 27
28 6/24/23 DOD Procurement Forecast: RDT&E, Equipment, MILCON,O&M (in billions of current dollars) Year RDT&E Equipment** MILCON O&M 2 $67.7 $3.2 $2.9 $ * * *Average Annual % Change **space, missiles, ships, ordinance, tactical vehicles, aircraft, C4ISR, support systems Sources: Deltek, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Federal Spending Trends in the Washington Metropolitan Area: 2-27 (in billions of current dollars) Year GRP %Change* Fed $s % GRP Procurement 2 $ $ $ $ $ $68.6 *real (inflation adjusted) percent change Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 28
29 6/24/23 Washington Area Economic Outlook: Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (s) D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Average Annual Change 99-2 = 36, Source: BLS, IHS Global Insight Jan. 7 23, GMU Center for Regional Analysis NOTE: 22 Total is the sum of sub-regions and does not agree with the Mar 8, 23 published MSA total. GMU Center for Regional Analysis 29
30 6/24/23 Job Growth in the Washington Area By Sector, (in thousands) Sector Change Percent Prof. & Bus. Ser Federal Gov t Education/Health S & L Gov t Hospitality Retail Trade Other Services Financial Services Construction Information Ser Other Sectors (3) Total Jobs 3,33.4 3, Major Sources of Job Growth in the Washington Area, (in thousands) Growth Sectors Change Percent Prof. & Bus. Ser Education/Health Construction Sub-Totals,224., % Total Totals 3,33.4 3, Sources: IHS Global Insight; GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
31 6/24/23 % Economic Outlook (GRP), Washington Area and Sub-State Areas (Annual % Change) NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis 27 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 6.2 % Other Federal 9.7 % Fed Wages & Salaries 7.5 % Total Federal 29.2% Procurement 2.% Local Serving Activities 37.8% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
32 6/24/23 Thank You Questions cra.gmu.edu GMU Center for Regional Analysis 32
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