Gorfine, Schiller, & Gardyn, P.A. Real Deal Seminar
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2 Gorfine, Schiller, & Gardyn, P.A. Real Deal Seminar The U.S. and Washington Economies: Current Performance and Near Term Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University January 20, 2010
3 U.S. Coincident and Leading Indices Nov Nov RECESSION > > > > L.I. C.I.
4 % U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: Forecast > > > > > > > > > > Source: Global Insight
5 000s Initial Unemployment Claims (4-week moving average)
6 ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices Mfg Non-Mfg
7 (000s) U.S. Housing Trends New & Existing Home Sales (000s) Existing (left scale) New (Right Scale)
8 Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - US THOUSANDS Dec 09 = Mil Source: BLS Establishment Survey
9 000s US Job Change Month-to-Month, Seasonally Adjusted Dec -85 Source: BLS
10 U.S. Unemployment Rate % Nov, Dec = 10.0 % Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted
11 Consumer Confidence Present Situation 100 Expectations Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
12 % Growth in Total Consumption Outlays Forecast > > > > > Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
13 The Washington Economy
14 US GDP and Washington GRP % Washington GRP US GDP
15 000s Annual Job Change MOTYC Washington MSA
16 000s Annual Job Change MOTYC Suburban Maryland
17 (000s) 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change Nov 08 Nov 09 Washington 15,300 Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
18 000s Annual Job Change Washington MSA Annual Data Annual Month over Year Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
19 Job Change by Sector Nov 2008 Nov 2009 Washington MSA (000s) Total - 15,300 Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
20 % 15 Largest Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate November US 9.4 Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted
21 Total Active Listings Per Sale December Each Year PG LDN DC MONT ARL FFX
22 % Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA All Housing Types Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
23 % Average Sales Price Percent Change Suburban Maryland All Housing Types Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
24 New Housing Contract Kick-Out Rate Washington Metro, All Housing Types % Source: Hanley Wood
25 Office Market Outlook: (millions of square feet) 9/2009 Pipeline (1) Totals Space Available (1) Demand (1) Vacancy 9/09 Vacancy 9/11 D.C % 13.2% Sub. MD % 14.5% N. VA % 13.2% Metro % 13.5% Source: Delta Associates (1) Projected for 9/11
26 % Economic Outlook (GRP) 2014 Washington Area and Sub-state Portions (Annual % Change) NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
27 Employment Change by Sub-state Region (000s) D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Average Annual Change = 45,000 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
28
29 The Amazing Race On Behalf of The Real Deal By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. January 20, 2010
30 Biggest Loser
31 Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2010* Source: International Monetary Fund * data are projections
32 Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas, 2009 Source: International Monetary Fund
33 Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2008 Growth Rank Exchange Index 2008 % Change 3 London SE FTSE % 1 NYSE Group DJI A -33.8% 12 Swiss Exchange Swiss Market -34.2% 9 TSX Group S&P TSX Composite -35.4% 2 Nasdaq NASDAQ Composite -39.6% 8 Bolsa De Medrid Madrid General -40.0% 6 Frankfurt SE DAX -40.2% 4 Tokyo SE Nikkei % 5 Euronext CAC % 11 Hong Kong Exchanges Hang Seng Index -47.9% 10 Borsa Italiana MIBTel -48.5% 7 Shanghai SE Shanghai Composite -65.4% Source: Yahoo! Finance
34 Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2009 Growth Rank Exchange Index Growth 7 Shanghai SE Shanghai Composite 77.2% 11 Hong Kong Exchanges Hang Seng Index 51.4% 2 Nasdaq NASDAQ Composite 43.7% 9 TSX Group S&P TSX Composite 31.2% 6 Frankfurt SE DAX 29.9% 1 NYSE Group DJI A 26.8% 8 Bolsa De Medrid Madrid General 26.7% 3 London SE FTSE % 5 Euronext CAC % 12 Swiss Exchange Swiss Market 18.4% 4 Tokyo SE Nikkei % 10* Borsa Italiana FTSE MIB NA *Formerly MIBTel Index, Switched June 2009 (Up 52.2 percent from MIBTel January 2 nd Value)
35 American Idle
36 Recession Watch as of May 2009 Source: Moody s Economy
37 Gross Domestic Product 1990Q1 through 2009Q3 2008Q3: -0.5% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
38 U.S. Retail & Food Services Sales January 2001 through November 2009 Source: Dismal.com
39 U.S. Chain Store Sales Growth by Type of Store December 2008 vs. December 2009 Source: Economy.com
40 Recession Watch as of November 2009 Source: Moody s Economy
41 Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS January 2001 through December /09: -85k Between December 2008 and December 2009, the U.S. lost 4.2 million jobs Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
42 National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups December 2008 v. December 2009 Absolute Change -4,164k All Told Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
43 Maryland Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (SA) November 2008 v. November 2009 Absolute Change MD Total: K; -1.6% US Total: - 4,760K; -3.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
44 Baltimore Towson MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) November 2008 v. November 2009 Absolute Change Baltimore Total: -25.6K; -2.0% MD Total: K; -1.6% US Total: - 4,760K; -3.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
45 Washington, D.C. MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) November 2008 v. November 2009 Absolute Change DC MSA Total: -15.3K; -0.5% US Total: - 4,760K; -3.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
46 Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) November 2009 Rank State Rate Rank State Rate Rank State Rate 1 NORTH DAKOTA MINNESOTA MISSISSIPPI NEBRASKA NEW MEXICO NEW JERSEY SOUTH DAKOTA MAINE GEORGIA KANSAS TEXAS TENNESSEE UTAH CONNECTICUT ALABAMA MONTANA WISCONSIN KENTUCKY VERMONT WEST VIRGINIA OHIO VIRGINIA DELAWARE NORTH CAROLINA IOWA PENNSYLVANIA ILLINOIS LOUISIANA NEW YORK OREGON NEW HAMPSHIRE ALASKA FLORIDA 11.5 DISTRICT OF 12 COLORADO MASSACHUSETTS COLUMBIA HAWAII ARIZONA CALIFORNIA OKLAHOMA IDAHO NEVADA WYOMING WASHINGTON SOUTH CAROLINA ARKANSAS MISSOURI RHODE ISLAND MARYLAND INDIANA MICHIGAN 14.7 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Unemployment Rate: November 09 =10.0%
47 MD County Unemployment Rates November 2009 Rank Jurisdiction UR Rank Jurisdiction UR 1 Howard County Kent County Montgomery County Baltimore County Saint Mary s County Garrett County Calvert County Allegany County Charles County Wicomico County Frederick County Cecil County Carroll County Somerset County Anne Arundel County Caroline County Queen Anne s County Washington County Harford County Baltimore City Prince George's County Dorchester County Talbot County Worcester County 14.6 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
48 Unemployment Rates, Largest 20 Metros(NSA) November 2009 Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, 1 DC, VA, MD, WV St. Louis, MO-IL 9.9 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN- 2 WI Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Baltimore-Towson, MD Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA Dallas, Fort Worth, Arlington, TX San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA- NJ-DE-MD Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI 15.4 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
49 Commercial Real Estate Loans January 2001 through November 2009 Source: Federal Reserve Board
50 Metropolitan Office Vacancy Rates 3 rd Quarter 2009 Source: CB Richard Ellis
51 Local Office Vacancy Rates 3 rd Quarter 2009 Source: CB Richard Ellis
52 Trading Spaces
53 15 Year & 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates January 1995 through November 2009 Source: Freddie Mac
54 U.S. Existing Home Sales September 2001 through November 2009 Source: Economy.com
55 U.S. New Home Sales January 1999 through November 2009 Source: Economy.com, Census Bureau
56 U.S. New Residential Construction January 1999 through November 2009 Source: Economy.com
57 Active Housing Inventory by Baltimore MSA Jurisdiction December 2008 vs. December ,050 Dec-08 7,050 Dec-09 Active Inventory 6,050 5,050 4,050 3,050 2,050 1,050 3,810 3,392 4,563 5,172 4,360 3,911 1,690 1,580 1,622 1,255 1, Anne Arundel Baltimore City Baltimore County Harford Howard Carroll Queen Anne's Source: Maryland Association of Realtors Maryland = Dec. 2008: 43,674 Dec. 2009: 39,185
58 Active Housing Inventory by Suburban MD December 2008 vs. December 2009 Source: Maryland Association of Realtors Maryland = Dec. 2008: 43,674 Dec. 2009: 39,185
59 Current Hot Metro Housing Markets (150) Annual Existing Single Family Home Price Appreciation 2008Q3 vs. 2009Q3 Boston, New York, MA: NY: --7.0% 14.1% Philly, PA: - 5.6% Baltimore, MD: -6.5% Washington, DC: -2.5% Source: National Association of Realtors U.S.: -11.2% in 2009Q3
60 Worst Performing Metro Housing Markets (150) Annual Existing Single Family Home Price Appreciation 2008Q3 vs. 2009Q3 Source: National Association of Realtors U.S.: -11.2% in 2009Q3
61 Mortgage Banker s Association Delinquency Rates, Prime Mortgage Loans 2005Q2 through 2009Q3 National Mortgage Delinquency for 2009 Q2: 6.41% 2009 Q3: 6.84% Source: Economy.com The delinquency rate does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process was 0.7 percent of Fixed Rate prime loans and 3.4 percent of all adjustable rate prime loans outstanding at the end of the fourth quarter.
62 Mortgage Banker s Association Delinquency Rates Subprime Mortgage Loans 2005Q2 through 2009Q3 National Mortgage Delinquency for 2009 Q2: 25.35% 2009 Q3: 26.42% Source: Economy.com The delinquency rate does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of fixed rate subprime loans in the foreclosure process was 2.6 percent while those with adjustable rates were 4.9 percent.
63 America s Next Top Model Stimulus, stimulus, stimulus; We ve seen the worst of it from a broader economic perspective; Too soon to tell if inflation will be problematic; U.S. dollar may be the economic element to watch; BRAC; Washington/Baltimore region will continue to outperform and the degree of outperformance will probably surprise you; This year represents a year of moderate improvement but commercial...; & 2011????
64 Thank You You can always reach me at If you appreciate this type of information and would like regular updates, please see our newsletter service at Also, if you need us in a hurry, we are at ( SAGE) Please contact us when you require economic research & policy analysis.
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