Back to the Future Part II
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1 Back to the Future Part II On Behalf of The Loudoun County Chamber of Commerce By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. October 21 st, 2014
2 Raging Bull (1980)
3 Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas 2014 Estimates* Advanced economies Euro area France Germany Italy-0.2% Spain Japan United Kingdom Canada United States Emerging/developing countries Sub-Saharan Africa Central/eastern Europe Russia Developing Asia China India** Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, & Pakistan Latin America and Caribbean Brazil Mexico Source: International Monetary Fund, October 2014 WEO Database 0.8% 1.8% 0.4% 1.4% 0.2% 0.3% 1.3% 0.9% 3.2% 2.3% 2.2% 1.3% *IMF Staff Estimates The IMF s global and regional growth figures for 2014 are based on new purchasing power parity (PPP) weights derived from the recently released 2011 International Comparison Program survey. **For India, data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis and output growth is based on GDP at market prices. 2.7% 2.7% 2.4% 4.4% 5.1% 6.5% 7.4% 5.6% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% Annual % Change
4 Debt by Selected Country 2014 Projected Japan Italy United States Spain France United Kingdom Canada Germany Brazil India Argentina Mexico South Africa China Indonesia Russia Saudi Arabia Source: International Monetary Fund, October 2014 WEO Database General Government Gross Debt in Percent of GDP
5 Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2013 Growth* Rank Exchange Index % Change 4 Tokyo SE Nikkei % 2 Nasdaq NASDAQ Composite 38.3% 1 NYSE Group DJI A 26.5% 6 Frankfurt SE DAX 25.5% 8 Bolsa De Madrid Madrid General 21.4% 12 Swiss Exchange Swiss Market 20.2% 5 Euronext CAC % 10 BorsaItaliana FTSE MIB 16.6% 3 London SE FTSE % 9 TSX Group S&P TSX Composite 9.6% 11 Hong Kong Exchanges Hang Seng Index 2.9% 7 Shanghai SE Shanghai Composite -6.8% Source: Yahoo! Finance *Change from the 2012 close to the 2013 close.
6 S&P Select Sector Performance 12-Month Percent Change as of October 10 th, 2014 Health Care 23.4% Information Technology 20.5% Utilities Consumer Staples Financials 11.7% 13.2% 13.0% Materials Industrials Consumer Discretionary 7.7% 7.2% 9.4% Telecommunication Services 4.1% Energy 1.0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 12-month percent change Source: Standard & Poor s
7 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Federal Reserve Balance Sheet v. S&P 500 Index May 2008 October 2014* FRB Credit Reserve $Trillions 4.8 S&P S&P 500 index depicted in orange Source: Federal Reserve Bank; Yahoo Finance *Through 10/8/2014
8 Second Quarter Earnings for Select Corporations Earnings per Share Symbol Q Q Estimated Q Reported Surprise Symbol Q Q Estimated Q Reported Surprise CMG $2.82 $3.09 $3.50 $0.41 BTU $0.33 -$0.29 -$0.28 $0.01 COF $1.87 $1.82 $2.04 $0.22 DD $1.28 $1.17 $1.17 $0.00 UTX $1.70 $1.71 $1.84 $0.13 GE $0.36 $0.39 $0.39 $0.00 FCX $0.22 $0.51 $0.58 $0.07 MMM $1.71 $1.91 $1.91 $0.00 COH $0.89 $0.53 $0.59 $0.06 AMD -$0.09 $0.03 $0.02 -$0.01 TXN $0.58 $0.59 $0.62 $0.03 YHOO $0.35 $0.38 $0.37 -$0.01 DOW $0.64 $0.72 $0.74 $0.02 STI $0.68 $0.76 $0.72 -$0.04 HON $1.28 $1.36 $1.38 $0.02 UPS $1.13 $1.25 $1.21 -$0.04 VFC $0.32 $0.35 $0.36 $0.01 MCD $1.38 $1.44 $1.40 -$0.04 XRX $0.27 $0.26 $0.27 $0.01 MSFT $0.66 $0.60 $0.55 -$0.05 VZ $0.73 $0.90 $0.91 $0.01 CAT $1.45 $1.53 $1.69 -$0.16 Source: Yahoo! Finance
9 Percent change since end of 2007 Top Gun (1986) Profits out of the Danger Zone 60% Profits 49.2% 40% Stocks 25.9% 20% 0% Incomes 2.7% Jobs -0.7% -20% Housing -10.5% -40% -60% Source: BEA, BLS, S&P Case-Shiller, Yahoo! Finance
10 The Golden Child (1986) Highest Earning Hedge Fund Managers, 2013 Manager Hedge Fund Firm 2013 Earnings Net Return George Soros Soros Fund Management $4 billion 22% David Tepper Appaloosa Management $3.5 billion 42% Steve Cohen SAC Capital Advisors $2.3 billion 19% John Paulson Paulson Enhanced $1.9 billion 26% Carl Icahn Icahn Enterprises $1.7 billion 31% James Simons Renaissance Technologies $1.1 billion 18% Ray Dalio Bridgewater Associates $900 million 5.25% Ken Griffin Citadel $900 million 19.25% Larry Robbins Glenview Capital $750 million 43% Leon Cooperman Omega $730 million 25% Source: Forbes 2013 S&P 500: +29.6%
11 Airplane! (1980) David Tepper s Move against the Market Our big play versus the market is airlines. That s a big play. We re the biggest holder of all these different airlines. No hedge fund owned as many airlines as we did and not too many people did. Delta, UAL, LCC, US Air, AMR. We owned big percentages in all those stocks. And you know what, they did pretty good pretty freaking good. -David Tepper Source: Forbes, Bloomberg 2013 Appaloosa Management: +$3.5 billion (42%)
12 Median Weekly Earnings, Full-Time U.S. Workers* 2000Q2 through 2014Q2 2000Q2 2000Q4 2001Q2 2001Q4 2002Q2 2002Q4 2003Q2 2003Q4 2004Q2 2004Q4 2005Q2 2005Q4 2006Q2 2006Q4 2007Q2 2007Q4 2008Q2 2008Q4 2009Q2 2009Q4 2010Q2 2010Q4 2011Q2 2011Q4 2012Q2 2012Q4 2013Q2 2013Q4 2014Q2 $350 $345 $340 $335 $330 $325 $320 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics *SA, Constant dollars (adjusted to CPI-U) Wage and salary workers ages 16+
13 Percent Change from Preceding Period (SAAR) Gross Domestic Product 1990Q1 through 2014Q2 8% 6% 2014Q2: +4.6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
14 SAAR (%) Contributions to GDP Growth by Component 2013Q2 2014Q2 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q Personal Consumption Government Spending Net Exports Gross Investment Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
15 Ordinary People (1980)
16 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Thousands Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS January 2002 through September September 2014: +248K Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
17 National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector September 2013 v. September 2014 Professional and Business Services Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Construction Manufacturing Financial Activities Mining and Logging Government Other Services Information All told 2,635K Jobs gained Thousands, SA Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
18 Virginia Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (SA) August 2013 v. August 2014 Absolute Change Education & Health Services 15,900 Other Services 5,600 Leisure & Hospitality 5,000 Construction 4,500 Financial Activities 2,900 Manufacturing 300 Mining and Logging Information Government Trade, Transportation & Utilities -1,400-2, VA Total: +18.6K; +0.5% US Total (SA): +2,551K; +1.9% Professional & Business Services -11,200-15,000-10,000-5, ,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics *According to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) series VA lost 38,298 jobs between August 2013 and August 2014.
19 Northern VA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) August 2013 v. August 2014 Absolute Change Mining, logging, and construction Government 3,100 3,000 Leisure and hospitality 2,300 Other services 1,800 Financial activities 1,100 Trade, transportation, and utilities Education and health services Manufacturing Northern VA Total: +5.9K +0.4% VA Total (SA): +18.6K; +0.5% Information Professional and business services -2,600-2,100 US Total (SA): +2,551K; +1.9% -4,000-2, ,000 4,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
20 Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) August 2013 v. August 2014 Percent Change RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE % 1 NORTH DAKOTA MISSOURI KANSAS NEVADA SOUTH CAROLINA PENNSYLVANIA TEXAS MASSACHUSETTS ILLINOIS UTAH MINNESOTA MICHIGAN FLORIDA WISCONSIN MISSISSIPPI DELAWARE ARKANSAS NEW MEXICO OREGON LOUISIANA SOUTH DAKOTA NORTH CAROLINA KENTUCKY NEBRASKA COLORADO MAINE IDAHO GEORGIA IOWA VIRGINIA CALIFORNIA NEW YORK MARYLAND TENNESSEE RHODE ISLAND NEW HAMPSHIRE WASHINGTON WYOMING VERMONT ARIZONA ALABAMA CONNECTICUT INDIANA HAWAII OHIO OKLAHOMA WEST VIRGINIA NEW JERSEY MONTANA DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA ALASKA -0.8 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: 1.9%
21 Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) August 2014 RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE % 1 NORTH DAKOTA VIRGINIA WEST VIRGINIA NEBRASKA WASHINGTON ILLINOIS SOUTH DAKOTA WISCONSIN NEW MEXICO UTAH OHIO ALASKA VERMONT INDIANA NORTH CAROLINA HAWAII LOUISIANA ALABAMA MINNESOTA MASSACHUSETTS ARIZONA NEW HAMPSHIRE PENNSYLVANIA KENTUCKY IOWA ARKANSAS OREGON WYOMING FLORIDA CALIFORNIA IDAHO MISSOURI MICHIGAN MONTANA MARYLAND TENNESSEE OKLAHOMA NEW YORK DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA KANSAS SOUTH CAROLINA NEVADA COLORADO DELAWARE RHODE ISLAND TEXAS CONNECTICUT MISSISSIPPI MAINE NEW JERSEY GEORGIA 8.1 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Unemployment Rate: 6.1%
22 Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA) August 2014 Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR 1 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Metropolitan NECTA Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD- WV Metropolitan Statistical Area San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ- PA Metropolitan Statistical Area Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.6 St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.6 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE- MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.7 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.8 Baltimore-Towson, MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.0 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.7 Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.9 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.0 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.7 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
23 Aug-00 Feb-01 Aug-01 Feb-02 Aug-02 Feb-03 Aug-03 Feb-04 Aug-04 Feb-05 Aug-05 Feb-06 Aug-06 Feb-07 Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Unemployment Rate Loudoun County Unemployment Rate August August August % Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
24 Aug-00 Feb-01 Aug-01 Feb-02 Aug-02 Feb-03 Aug-03 Feb-04 Aug-04 Feb-05 Aug-05 Feb-06 Aug-06 Feb-07 Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug Month Net Change Loudoun County Employment August August ,000 12,000 10,000 Aug v. Aug ,584 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,000-4,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
25 Field of Dreams (1989)
26 Feb-95 Jul-95 Dec-95 May-96 Oct-96 Mar-97 Aug-97 Jan-98 Jun-98 Nov-98 Apr-99 Sep-99 Feb-00 Jul-00 Dec-00 May-01 Oct-01 Mar-02 Aug-02 Jan-03 Jun-03 Nov-03 Apr-04 Sep-04 Feb-05 Jul-05 Dec-05 May-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14 Rate 15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates February 1995 through October 2014* 10% 9% 8% 7% 15-yr 30-yr 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 3.97% 3.18% 1% Source: Freddie Mac *Week ending 10/16/2014
27 Thousands, SAAR U.S. New Home Sales January 1999 through August ,600 1,400 1,200 1, August K Source: U.S. Census Bureau
28 Jan-99 May-99 Sep-99 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Thousands, SAAR U.S. Housing Starts January 1999 through September ,500 2,000 1 Unit 5 units or more 1,500 September 2014: 1 Unit: 646K 5 Units or more: 353K 1, Source: U.S. Census Bureau
29 Thousands, SAAR U.S. Housing Building Permits January 1999 through September 2014 Jan-99 May-99 Sep-99 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 2,500 2,000 1,500 1 Unit 5 units or more September 2014: 1 Unit: 624K 5 Units or more: 369K 1, Source: U.S. Census Bureau
30 12-Month % Change S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros July 2014, 12-Month Percentage Change 14% 12.8% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 3.8% 3.8% 4.0% 5.7% 6.7% 6.7% 6.8% 7.4% 8.4% 9.0% 10.3% 11.0% 2% 0% Source: Standard & Poor s
31 Loudoun County Luxury Home Sales ($1 Million+) Source: RealEstate Business Intelligence Monthly Sales of Luxury Homes September 2013: 6 September 2014: 10
32 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Year-over-year % change Loudoun County Housing Unit Sales January 2001 through September % 60% Trend Line 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% September % Source: Northern Virginia Association of Realtors *Figures include sales of attached, detached, and condos
33 The Shining (1980)
34 Sales Growth by Type of Business September 2013 v. September 2014* Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers Food Services & Drinking Places Health & Personal Care Stores Electronics & Appliance Stores Internet, etc. Retailers Building Material & Garden Supplies Dealers General Merchandise Stores Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores Food & Beverage Stores Miscellaneous Store Retailers Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores Furniture & Home Furn. Stores Gasoline Stations -2.5% 0.6% 0.3% 3.4% 2.7% 2.7% 2.4% 2.2% 7.1% 6.0% 5.8% 5.4% 9.5% -5.0% -3.0% -1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 9.0% 11.0% 12-month % change Source: U.S. Census Bureau *September 2014 advanced estimate
35 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 One-month Percent Change Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index August 2007 through August % 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% August 2014 = where 2004= % Source: Conference Board
36 Coming to America (1988) Economy gained momentum over the course of last year; Tailwinds included booming stock market, lower gasoline prices, stabilizing global economy, and consumer expenditures on interest rate sensitive durable goods like housing and autos; The current year is associated with greater certainty regarding federal budgeting and monetary policy that helps; The world is not perfect - black swan threats remain: (1) Iran (2) Israel/Iran (3) Europe (4) contagion (5) cyber (6) EMP; Healthcare reform could slow full-time hiring over the course of the year; and Regions with rapid population growth and/or significant import/export activity, industrial output and energy production will lead the way Loudoun destined to be an outperformer, but near-term has been challenging.
37 Thank You Follow us on You can always reach me at Please look for updates of information at Also, if you need us in a hurry, we are at ( SAGE) Please contact us when you require economic research & policy analysis.
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