Going Up for the Rebound
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1 Going Up for the Rebound On Behalf of ICSC By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. September 23, 2013
2 First Pitch
3 Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2014* Annual % Change 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 5.0% 4.6% 5.3% 5.4% 2.8% 5.2% 4.0% 3.2% 3.1% 3.8% -1.0% -2.0% -0.6% Source: International Monetary Fund * data are projections
4 Real GDP Growth, 20 Fastest and Slowest Growing Countries Estimated 2013, Annual Percent Change (for available nations) Rank Country Region % Rank Country Region % 1 South Sudan Africa Barbados Caribbean Libya Middle East Bosnia and Herzegovina Eastern Europe Sierra Leone Africa Grenada Caribbean Mongolia Asia Czech Republic Europe Paraguay South America Belgium Europe Timor-Leste Southeast Asia Venezuela South America Iraq Middle East Luxembourg Europe Panama Central America Swaziland Africa The Gambia Africa Hungary Europe Mozambique Africa France Europe Dem. Rep. of the Congo Africa Croatia Eastern Europe Chad Africa Netherlands Europe China Asia Islamic Republic of Iran Middle East Lao P.D.R. Southeast Asia Italy Europe Côte d'ivoire Africa Spain Europe Zambia Africa Slovenia Eastern Europe Turkmenistan Central Asia Equatorial Guinea Africa Rwanda Africa Portugal Europe Liberia Africa San Marino Europe Kyrgyz Republic Central Asia Greece Europe -4.2 Source: IMF
5 Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas 2013 Projected Advanced economies Euro area France Germany Italy Spain Japan United Kingdom Canada United States Emerging/developing countries Sub-Saharan Africa Central/eastern Europe Russia Developing Asia China India Middle East and North Africa Latin America and Caribbean Brazil Mexico -1.8% -1.6% -0.6% -0.2% 0.3% 1.2% 2.0% 0.9% 1.7% 1.7% 2.2% 2.5% 3.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.9% 5.0% 5.1% 5.6% 6.9% 7.8% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Annual % Change Source: International Monetary Fund
6 Debt by Selected Country 2012 Japan Italy United States Spain France United Kingdom Canada Germany India Brazil Argentina Mexico South Africa Indonesia China Russia Saudi Arabia Source: IMF General Government Gross Debt in Percent of GDP
7 Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2011 Growth Rank Exchange Index % Change 1 NYSE Group DJI A 5.5% 2 Nasdaq NASDAQ Composite -1.8% 3 London SE FTSE % 12 Swiss Exchange Swiss Market Index -7.8% 9 TSX Group S&P TSX Composite -9.2% 8 Bolsa De Medrid IGBM -14.6% 6 Frankfurt SE DAX -14.7% 5 Euronext CAC % 4 Tokyo SE Nikkei % 11 Hong Kong Exchanges Hang Seng Index -20.0% 7 Shanghai SE Shanghai Composite -21.7% 10 Borsa Italiana FTSE MIB -25.2% Source: Yahoo! Finance
8 Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2012 Growth Rank Exchange Index % Change 6 Frankfurt SE DAX 29.1% 11 Hong Kong Exchanges Hang Seng Index 22.9% 4 Tokyo SE Nikkei % 2 Nasdaq NASDAQ Composite 15.9% 5 Euronext CAC % 12 Swiss Exchange Swiss Market Index 14.9% 10 Borsa Italiana FTSE MIB 7.8% 1 NYSE Group DJI A 7.3% 3 London SE FTSE % 9 TSX Group S&P TSX Composite 4.0% 7 Shanghai SE Shanghai Composite 3.2% 8 Bolsa De Madrid IBEX % Source: Yahoo! Finance
9 Top 12 Stock Exchanges Year to date Growth Thru 8/16/13 Rank Exchange Index % Change 4 Tokyo SE Nikkei % 2 Nasdaq NASDAQ Composite 19.3% 12 Swiss Exchange Swiss Market 16.7% 1 NYSE Group DJI A 15.1% 5 Euronext CAC % 6 Frankfurt SE DAX 10.2% 3 London SE FTSE % 10 BorsaItaliana FTSE MIB 8.6% 8 Bolsa De Madrid Madrid General 8.0% 9 TSX Group S&P TSX Composite 2.4% 11 Hong Kong Exchanges Hang Seng Index -0.6% 7 Shanghai SE Shanghai Composite -8.8%
10 S&P Select Sector Performance 2012 Financial 23.5% Consumer Discretionary 19.9% Health Care 14.2% Technology 11.7% Industrials Materials Consumer Staples 8.5% 8.0% 9.4% Energy 0.3% Utilities -0.7% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 12-month percent change Source: Dow Jones, Standard & Poor s
11 Retail Property Clock Q Peaking market Falling market Rising market Bottoming market San San Francisco, Miami New New York York City, Houston Dallas, Fort Lauderdale, Honolulu, Boston, Seattle, Palm Beach Palm Beach, Chicago, Washington D.C. DC Atlanta, Orlando San Boston, Diego, San Tampa, Diego, Los Tampa, Angeles, Los Ange Orange County Source: Jones Lang LaSalle
12 Shopping Center Vacancy Rates for Select Areas Q % 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1.6% 4.0% 4.1% 4.9% 6.3% 6.8% 7.0% 7.4% 7.4% 8.8% 9.3% 9.3% 9.5% 12.4% 11.9% 11.9% 11.0% 14.5% Source: Jones Lang LaSalle *Washington D.C. Q2 Net Absorption: -25,430 sf YTD Net Absorption: -2,281,339 sf
13 Second Quarter Earnings for Select Corporations Earnings per Share Symbol Q Q Estimated Q Reported Surprise Symbol Q Q Estimated Q Reported Surprise COF $2.20 $1.74 $2.13 $0.39 GE $0.38 $0.35 $0.36 $0.01 BTU $0.73 ($0.05) $0.33 $0.38 VZ $0.64 $0.72 $0.73 $0.01 VFC $1.11 $1.17 $1.27 $0.10 CMG $2.56 $2.81 $2.82 $0.01 YHOO $0.27 $0.26 $0.35 $0.09 COH $0.86 $0.89 $0.89 $0.00 UTX $1.58 $1.57 $1.65 $0.08 MMM $1.66 $1.71 $1.71 $0.00 HON $1.14 $1.21 $1.28 $0.07 UPS $1.15 $1.14 $1.13 ($0.01) XRX $0.26 $0.24 $0.27 $0.03 MCD $1.32 $1.40 $1.38 ($0.02) STI $0.50 $0.66 $0.68 $0.02 TXN $0.44 $0.44 $0.42 ($0.02) AMD $0.05 ($0.12) ($0.10) $0.02 MSFT ($0.05) $0.74 $0.59 ($0.15) DD $1.48 $1.27 $1.28 $0.01 FCX $0.80 $0.46 $0.22 ($0.24) DOW $0.55 $0.63 $0.64 $0.01 CAT $2.54 $1.70 $1.45 ($0.25) Source: Dow Jones, Standard & Poor s
14 Federal Reserve Balance Sheet v. S&P 500 Index April 2008 August 2013 FRB Credit Reserve $Trillions 3.8 S&P Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Source: Federal Reserve Bank; Yahoo Finance S&P 500 index depicted in orange
15 Recession Watch as of September 2013 Source: Moody s Economy
16 105 Industrial Production March 2001 through July (Base year: 2007) Index (2007 = 100) Mar-01 Jul-01 Nov-01 Mar-02 Jul-02 Nov-02 Mar-03 Jul-03 Nov-03 Mar-04 Jul-04 Nov-04 Mar-05 Jul-05 Nov-05 Mar-06 Jul-06 Nov-06 Mar-07 Jul-07 Nov-07 Mar-08 Jul-08 Nov-08 Mar-09 Jul-09 Nov-09 Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Source: Federal Reserve The industrial production index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries.
17 Percent Change from Preceding Period (SAAR) Gross Domestic Product 1990Q1 through 2013Q2 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% 2013Q2: 2.5% -10% 1990Q1 1990Q4 1991Q3 1992Q2 1993Q1 1993Q4 1994Q3 1995Q2 1996Q1 1996Q4 1997Q3 1998Q2 1999Q1 1999Q4 2000Q3 2001Q2 2002Q1 2002Q4 2003Q3 2004Q2 2005Q1 2005Q4 2006Q3 2007Q2 2008Q1 2008Q4 2009Q3 2010Q2 2011Q1 2011Q4 2012Q3 2013Q2 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
18 Contributions to GDP Growth by Component Q Q Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q SAAR (%) Personal Consumption Government Spending Net Exports Gross Investment Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
19 Red Card/ Pink Slip
20 Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS January 2002 through August Thousands Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 August 2013: +169K Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
21 National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector August 2012 v. August 2013 Professional and Business Services 614 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 517 Leisure and Hospitality 424 Education and Health Services 375 Construction 168 Financial Activities 108 Other Services Mining and Logging Manufacturing Information All told 2,206 K Jobs gained Government Thousands, SA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
22 Cumulative Job Growth Since December 2007: Full-time v. Part-time December 2007 August ,000 4,000 2, ,000-4,000-6,000-8,000-10,000-12,000 Full-time Part-time Dec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey Full-time: million Part-time: million
23 Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) July 2012 v. July 2013 Percent Change Rank State % Rank State % Rank State % 1 Utah Iowa Hawaii 1 2 Arizona Michigan Illinois 1 3 Georgia North Carolina Kentucky 1 4 Colorado Oregon New Mexico 1 4 Idaho California Alabama North Dakota Maryland New York Texas Vermont Wisconsin Washington Connecticut Wyoming Mississippi Virginia Maine Minnesota 2 27 Nevada West Virginia South Carolina 2 28 Arkansas Nebraska Florida Kansas Ohio Indiana Louisiana Oklahoma Montana Massachusetts District of Columbia New Jersey Tennessee Pennsylvania Missouri New Hampshire Rhode Island Delaware South Dakota Alaska -0.5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: 1.7%
24 Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) July 2013 Rank State Rate Rank State Rate Rank State Rate 1 North Dakota 3 18 Texas Arizona 8 2 South Dakota Idaho Oregon 8 3 Nebraska Wisconsin Connecticut Hawaii Maine South Carolina Utah New Mexico Indiana Vermont Washington Kentucky Wyoming Louisiana 7 40 Mississippi Iowa Colorado Tennessee New Hampshire Florida District of Columbia Minnesota Maryland New Jersey Montana Missouri California Oklahoma Massachusetts Georgia Virginia Ohio Michigan Kansas Arkansas North Carolina West Virginia Delaware Rhode Island Alabama New York Illinois Alaska Pennsylvania Nevada 9.5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Unemployment Rate: 7.4%
25 Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA) July 2013 Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR 1 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area Baltimore-Towson, MD Metropolitan Statistical Area Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA- MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area* Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Metropolitan NECTA San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.8 St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan Statistical Area1 7.9 New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area 8 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ- DE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.4 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.6 Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 9.8 Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area 10.4 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 11 *D.C. MSA Employment July 2013 vs. July 2012: +50.6K; +1.7%
26 Put me in, Coach
27 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index 2005 August Aug Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Source: Conference Board
28 U.S. Retail and Food Service Sales January 2002 through July % Year to Year % change 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% Jul % -10.0% -15.0% Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Source: Census Bureau
29 Sales Growth by Type of Business July 2012 v. July 2013* Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers 11.80% Internet, etc. Retailers Building Material & Garden Supplies Dealers 7.90% 8.80% Miscellaneous Store Retailers Gasoline Stations Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores Food Services & Drinking Places Food & Beverage Stores Furniture & Home Furn. Stores Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores Health & Personal Care Stores General Merchandise Stores 5.80% 4.90% 4.20% 3.80% 3.30% 2.90% 2.30% 1.40% 1.10% Source: Census Bureau Electronics & Appliance Stores -0.40% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 12-month % change *July 2013 advanced estimate
30 15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates January 1995 through August % 9% 8% 7% 15-yr 30-yr Rate 6% 5% 4% 3% 4.46% 2% 1% 3.49% Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Source: Freddie Mac
31 25% S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros June 2013, 12-Month Percentage Change 24.5% 24.9% 12-Month % Change 20% 15% 10% 5% 3.3% 5.7% 6.7% 7.3% 8.0% 9.4% 12.1% 14.8% 16.4% 19.0% 19.9% 0% Source: Standard & Poor s
32 National Vehicle Sales June 2004 through August 2013 (SAAR) 25 Vehicle Sales (millions) Jun-04 Oct-04 Feb-05 Jun-05 Oct-05 Feb-06 Jun-06 Oct-06 Feb-07 Jun-07 Oct-07 Feb-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Feb-09 Jun-09 Oct-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Source: Autodata Corp. GM Ford Chrysler Honda Toyota Nissan Others
33 Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index August 2007 through July % 1.0% One-month Percent Change 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% July 2013 = 96.0 where 2004=100 Aug-07 Oct-07 Dec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Source: Conference Board
34 Fourth Quarter As predicted, first half of year was quite soft in terms of economic expansion as sequestration and tax hikes make their mark; Second half of year should be better, with growing likely to average a shade above 2 percent;. Many headwinds remain and the recovery could easily falter; Black swan threats: (1) Iran (2) Israel/Iran (3) Europe; Maryland has held its own to date, but there are major discrepancies between the household survey and the establishment survey one of them is probably wrong; and We are an increasingly parttime nation that looks like a problem.
35 Thank You You can always reach me at Please look for updates of information at Also, if you need us in a hurry, we are at ( SAGE) Please contact us when you require economic research & policy analysis.
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