Markets, He Wrote. By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. On Behalf of The FEMSA/FAMA 2017 Annual Conference. October 5 th, 2017

Transcription

1 Markets, He Wrote On Behalf of The FEMSA/FAMA 2017 Annual Conference By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. October 5 th, 2017

2 Macro P.I. (Just How Hairy is the Global Situation?) Photo: Flixter.com

3 Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas 2017 Projected Advanced Economies Euro Area France Germany Italy Spain Japan United Kingdom Canada Australia United States Emerging Market & Developing Economies Sub-Saharan Africa Emerging & Developing Europe Russia Emerging & Developing Asia China India (3) Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, & Pakistan Latin America & the Caribbean Mexico Brazil 2017 Proj. Global Output Growth: 3.5% Source: International Monetary Fund: World Economic Outlook Update, July Growth (Estimate) World: 3.2% Euro Area: 1.8% United States: 1.6% Japan: 1.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.5% 1.8% 1.3% 3.1% 1.3% 1.7% 2.5% 3.1% 2.1% 4.6% 2.7% 3.5% 1.4% 2.6% 1.0% 1.9% 0.3% 6.5% 6.7% 7.2% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Annual % Change

4 International Population Dynamics, 16 Largest Nations Nation Population (Millions) Net Change % Change Nigeria % Ethiopia % Egypt % Pakistan % Philippines % Mexico % India 1, , % Bangladesh % Indonesia % United States % Vietnam % Brazil % China 1, , % Germany % Russian Federation % Japan % World 7.6 billion 9.8 billion 2.2 billion 29.4% Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA)/Population Division. World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision. *For statistical purposes, the data for China do not include Hong Kong and Macao, Special Administrative Regions (SAR) of China, and Taiwan Province of China.

5 Niamey Vice (Fertility Rates by Country, 2015) Rank* Top 15 Bottom 15 Country Fertility Rate Rank* Country Fertility Rate 1 Niger Malta Somalia Italy Dem. Rep. of the Congo Slovak Republic Mali Mauritius Chad Cyprus Burundi Bosnia and Herzegovina Angola Poland Uganda Spain Timor-Leste Greece Nigeria Macao SAR, China Gambia, The Moldova Burkina Faso Singapore Mozambique Korea, Rep Tanzania Portugal Benin Hong Kong SAR, China 1.20 Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators *Rank among 201 countries for which data are available for the most recent year (2015) **Total fertility rate represents the number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to live to the end of her childbearing years and bear children in accordance with age-specific fertility rates of the specified year.

6 Global Debt to Exacerbate Slow Growth? According to the IMF, global debt reached an all-time high in 2015; At $152 trillion, global gross debt of the nonfinancial sector now represents 225% of global GDP; About 2/3 of this debt is in the private sector; Current low nominal-growth environment is making adjustment difficult, setting the stage for a vicious feedback loop in which lower growth hampers deleveraging and the debt overhang exacerbates the slowdown. 2 Sources: 1. International Monetary Fund. October World Economic Outlook: Subdued Demand: Symptoms and Remedies. 2. International Monetary Fund (IMF). October Fiscal Monitor: Debt Use It Wisely. Note: The nonfinancial sector comprises the general government, nonfinancial firms, and households. Gross debt represents the unconsolidated liabilities of the three.

7 Global Debt Reaches All Time Highs (IIF) According to the International Institute of Finance (IIF), global debt has reached an all-time high in 2016; At $215 trillion, global debt including household, government, and corporate now represents 325% of global GDP; Last year the IMF warned of risks to the global economy: sheer size of debt could set the stage for an unprecedented private deleveraging process that could thwart the fragile economic recovery Sources: 1. Institute of International Finance (IFF), Global Debt Monitor. 2. Business Insider. 3. The Telegraph. 4. Reuters.

8 NYMEX Crude Oil Future Prices in U.S. Dollars September 2001 through September 2017 $140 $120 $100 September 2017: $49.88 /Barrel $/Barrel $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration *Month of September = average of daily prices from 9/1-9/29

9 Metal Price Indices August 2007 through August = Precious Metals Iron Ore Base Metals Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Source: The World Bank US$ Nominal Base metals include aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc. Precious metals include gold, platinum, and silver.

10 Baltic Dry Index October 2009 through October ,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 October 2 nd 1,328 0 Jan. 4, 1985: 1,000 Oct-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Source: Quandl.com The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a measure of the price of shipping major raw materials such as metals, grains, and fossil fuels by sea. The BDI is a composite of 3 sub-indices, each covering a different carrier size: Capesize, Panamax, and Supramax.

11 USA CSI (Commercial Situation Investigation) Photo: AMCNetworks.com

12 % Change from Preceding Period (SAAR) Gross Domestic Product 1990Q2 through 2017Q2* 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% 2017Q2: +3.1% 1990Q2 1991Q1 1991Q4 1992Q3 1993Q2 1994Q1 1994Q4 1995Q3 1996Q2 1997Q1 1997Q4 1998Q3 1999Q2 2000Q1 2000Q4 2001Q3 2002Q2 2003Q1 2003Q4 2004Q3 2005Q2 2006Q1 2006Q4 2007Q3 2008Q2 2009Q1 2009Q4 2010Q3 2011Q2 2012Q1 2012Q4 2013Q3 2014Q2 2015Q1 2015Q4 2016Q3 2017Q2 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis *3 rd (final) Estimate

13 Percent Change from Preceding Period (SAAR) Contributions to GDP Growth by Component 2016Q3 2017Q2* SAAR (%) Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q GDP -3.0 Personal Consumption Government Spending Net Exports Gross Investment Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis *3 rd (final) Estimate 2017Q2: +3.1%

14 Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS August 2002 through August Thousands August 2017: +156K Aug-02 Dec-02 Apr-03 Aug-03 Dec-03 Apr-04 Aug-04 Dec-04 Apr-05 Aug-05 Dec-05 Apr-06 Aug-06 Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

15 National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector August 2016 v. August 2017 Professional and Business Services 602 Education and Health Services 476 Leisure and Hospitality 323 Construction 214 Financial Activities 149 Manufacturing 138 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 108 Other Services 88 Mining and Logging Government 8 58 All told 2,097K jobs gained Information Thousands, SA Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

16 U.S. Employment to Population Ratio August 2000 August August 2017: 60.1% Aug-00 Feb-01 Aug-01 Feb-02 Aug-02 Feb-03 Aug-03 Feb-04 Aug-04 Feb-05 Aug-05 Feb-06 Aug-06 Feb-07 Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Civilian employment-population ratio, population 16 years and over, seasonally adjusted (SA).

17 Firefighters: Occupational Outlook Employment for firefighters is projected to grow 5% from ; Physically fit applicants with high test scores, some post-secondary firefighter education, and paramedic training have the best job prospects; 2/3 of situations that firefighters respond to are medical emergencies, not fires. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

18 High Demand for Volunteer Firefighters Volunteer firefighters share the same duties as paid firefighters and account for the majority of firefighters in many areas. According to the National Fire Protection Association, about 69 percent of fire departments were staffed entirely by volunteer firefighters in Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Fire Rescue Magazine

19 Volunteers Tougher to Find At the same time, the number of volunteer firefighters has declined significantly and volunteers continue to age; The number of firefighters that are strictly volunteers declined by more than 10 percent from 2000 to 2015; Departments are having trouble attracting younger volunteers: Increased demands on people s time and longer commutes; Growth of two-income households; Increased training requirements and costs Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Fire Rescue Magazine; National Fire Protection Association

20 Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) August 2016 v. August 2017 Percent Change RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE % 1 NEVADA CALIFORNIA INDIANA GEORGIA KENTUCKY OHIO FLORIDA MASSACHUSETTS PENNSYLVANIA UTAH MONTANA NEW JERSEY TEXAS NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH DAKOTA MARYLAND MINNESOTA DELAWARE OREGON VIRGINIA HAWAII IDAHO ALABAMA MISSISSIPPI NEW HAMPSHIRE MICHIGAN VERMONT WASHINGTON NEW YORK WISCONSIN ARKANSAS ARIZONA CONNECTICUT RHODE ISLAND NEBRASKA ILLINOIS COLORADO NORTH DAKOTA MAINE MISSOURI LOUISIANA ALASKA TENNESSEE OKLAHOMA WEST VIRGINIA DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA IOWA KANSAS SOUTH CAROLINA NEW MEXICO WYOMING -0.9 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: +1.4%

21 Employment Growth, 24 Largest Metros (NSA) August 2016 v. August 2017 Percent Change Rank MSA % Rank MSA % 1 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL MSA Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA- MD-WV MSA 2 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA MSA Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO MSA Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ- DE-MD MSA 5 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA MSA Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ MSA Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA MSA Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA MSA New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA MSA 7 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA MSA Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD MSA Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL MSA Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH Metro NECTA San Diego-Carlsbad, CA MSA St. Louis, MO-IL MSA Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI MSA Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA MSA Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES) Survey Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI MSA 0.5

22 Unemployment Rates, 24 Largest Metros (NSA) August 2017 Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR 1 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO MSA Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA MSA Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH Metro NECTA Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA- MD-WV MSA Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ MSA Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI MSA Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL MSA 5 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL MSA Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA MSA Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA San Diego-Carlsbad, CA MSA San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA MSA New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA MSA 8 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA MSA St. Louis, MO-IL MSA (1) Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD MSA Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ- DE-MD MSA Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA 10 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI MSA Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA MSA Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA MSA Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Unemployment Rate August: 4.4% 1. Area boundaries do not reflect official OMB definitions.

23 21 Jump Street (And Other Addresses of Interest) Photo: TheMoveDatabase.org

24 15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates September 1995 through September 2017* 10% 9% 8% 7% 15-yr 30-yr Rate 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 3.83% 3.13% 1% Sep-95 Mar-96 Sep-96 Mar-97 Sep-97 Mar-98 Sep-98 Mar-99 Sep-99 Mar-00 Sep-00 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Source: Freddie Mac *Week ending 9/28/2017

25 U.S. Homeownership (NSA) 1980Q2-2017Q2 70% 68% 2017Q2: 63.7% 66% 64% 62% 60% 58% 1980Q2 1981Q2 1982Q2 1983Q2 1984Q2 1985Q2 1986Q2 1987Q2 1988Q2 1989Q2 1990Q2 1991Q2 1992Q2 1993Q2 1994Q2 1995Q2 1996Q2 1997Q2 1998Q2 1999Q2 2000Q2 2001Q2 2002Q2 2003Q2 2004Q2 2005Q2 2006Q2 2007Q2 2008Q2 2009Q2 2010Q2 2011Q2 2012Q2 2013Q2 2014Q2 2015Q2 2016Q2 2017Q2 Source: U.S. Census Bureau *NSA: not seasonally adjusted

26 U.S. Private New Multifamily Construction August 1993 through August 2017 $70 $60 $ Billions (SAAR) $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Aug-93 Aug-94 Aug-95 Aug-96 Aug-97 Aug-98 Aug-99 Aug-00 Aug-01 Aug-02 Aug-03 Aug-04 Aug-05 Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

27 12-Month % Change S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros July 2017, 12-Month Percentage Change 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 3.3% 3.3% 3.9% 5.1% 5.3% 5.8% 6.1% 6.7% 6.8% 7.2% 7.3% 7.3% 7.4% Source: Standard & Poor s

28 Thousands, SAAR U.S. Single-Family Housing Starts August 1999 through August ,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Aug-99 Feb-00 Aug-00 Feb-01 Aug-01 Feb-02 Aug-02 Feb-03 Aug-03 Feb-04 Aug-04 Feb-05 Aug-05 Feb-06 Aug-06 Feb-07 Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Source: U.S. Census Bureau August 2017: 851K

29 Construction Spending on Public Safety January 2002 through August ,000 14,000 Dec-08 $15.1B SAAR ($millions) 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 Aug-17 $8.3B 2,000 0 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

30 National Nonresidential Construction Spending by Subsector August 2014 v. August 2017 Lodging Office Amusement and recreation Communication Commercial Educational Health care Manufacturing Transportation Highway and street Religious Power Public safety Water supply Conservation and development Sewage and waste disposal Source: U.S. Census Bureau -3.3% -4.5% -8.4% -10.3% -16.8% -20.9% -23.7% 5.9% 5.5% 4.4% 1.7% 37.9% 36.7% 32.1% 52.5% 70.2% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 3-year % Change Total Nonresidential Construction: +$57.16B; +9.0%

31 Commercial/Multifamily Offshore Investment Sales Volumes Reach New Heights in 2015/16 $60 $50 Foreign investment increases 85.1% in 2015 Billions of $US $40 $30 $20 $10 $ Source: Jones Lang LaSalle; Real Capital Analytics Cross-border investment remained elevated in 2016: Although down relative to a record 2015, offshore investment levels still exceeded the pre-2015 high in Note: Among transactions larger than $5.0 million

32 Foreign Office Investment Activity, as of 2016Q3 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Foreign Participation as a % of Total Office Volume 14.9% YTD Foreign Office Investment by Destination Market (as a % of Total, 2016YTD) New York San Francisco Boston Washington, DC Dallas-Fort Worth Los Angeles Seattle-Bellevue Miami Northern New Jersey Chicago Atlanta Austin Philadelphia San Diego 8.4% 7.1% 6.8% 5.6% 4.8% 4.8% 2.8% 2.1% 1.9% 1.6% 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 45.5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Source: Jones Lang LaSalle; Real Capital Analytics Note: Among transactions larger than $5.0 million; includes all office markets which received > 1.0% of offshore capital. Primary markets continue to capture the lion s share of inbound capital, receiving 78.2% of this capital YTD.

33 Down to The Wire Photo: RecapGuide.com

34 Sales Growth by Type of Business August 2016 v. August 2017* Internet, etc. Retailers Building Material & Garden Supplies Dealers Gasoline Stations Furniture & Home Furn. Stores Miscellaneous Store Retailers 8.4% 7.5% 6.4% 5.4% 5.2% General Merchandise Stores Food Services & Drinking Places Food & Beverage Stores Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores Health & Personal Care Stores 2.5% 2.3% 2.1% 1.5% 0.6% 0.5% Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores Electronics & Appliance Stores -3.5% -1.4% -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 12-month % change Source: U.S. Census Bureau *August 2017 advanced estimate Total Retail Sales: +3.2% YOY

35 U.S. Saving Rate, August 2005 August 2017 (Savings as Percentage of Personal Disposable Income) 12.0 Savings Rate (%) August 2017: 3.6% 0.0 Aug-05 Dec-05 Apr-06 Aug-06 Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

36 U.S. Gross Private Domestic Investment (SAAR) % Change from Previous Quarter, 2000Q2 2017Q2* Q2: +3.9% 2000Q2 2000Q4 2001Q2 2001Q4 2002Q2 2002Q4 2003Q2 2003Q4 2004Q2 2004Q4 2005Q2 2005Q4 2006Q2 2006Q4 2007Q2 2007Q4 2008Q2 2008Q4 2009Q2 2009Q4 2010Q2 2010Q4 2011Q2 2011Q4 2012Q2 2012Q4 2013Q2 2013Q4 2014Q2 2014Q4 2015Q2 2015Q4 2016Q2 2016Q4 2017Q2 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis *3 rd (final) Estimate

37 Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index August 2007 through August % One-month Percent Change 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% August 2017: where 2010: % Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Source: Conference Board

38 The Closer Global economy remains weak, and correspondingly... ; Global money has continued to pour into America in search of yield and safety, including into commercial real estate that was particularly true in 2015, only a bit less true in 2016; Inflationary pressures are on the rise so, too, are interest rates eventually -- that could begin to squeeze asset prices in 2017/18, triggering negative wealth effects and sentiment in the process; There are indications of mini-bubbles forming in commercial real estate, particularly in office, lodging and multifamily segments; There are also longer-term structural considerations, including the national debt and pending insolvencies of Medicare and Social Security the longer-term outlook may be deteriorating even as the short-run improves; Momentum should see us through 2017, but tighter monetary policy combined with a heavy dose of political intrigue could render 2018 different. By this time in 2019/20, the economy could be in a far different place and likely will be. Photo: Google *Kyra Sedgwick as Brenda Leigh Johnson

39 Thank You Follow us on You can always reach me at Please look for updates of information at Also, if you need us in a hurry, we are at ( SAGE) Please contact us when you require economic research & policy analysis.