Brown Sugar: Deriving Satisfaction through Data Analysis
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1 Brown Sugar: Deriving Satisfaction through Data Analysis By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. March 29 th, 2018 On Behalf of The 2018 Carroll County Economic Outlook Disclaimer: Any resemblance between the presentation s title and the speaker is purely coincidental.
2 Get off of My Cloud
3 Ipsos Consumer Confidence CONSUMER CONFIDENCE GLOBAL SNAPSHOT Index January 2018 Ipsos Consumer Confidence Index March Ipsos Largest gains South Africa Turkey Hungary Largest drops Argentina Russia Saudi Arabia Canada 54.7/ -0.2 Mexico 45.7 /-0.2 Largest gains US 62.8/ +2.3 Argentina 45.8/ -5.7 IPSOS Global Confidence Index, March 2018 Great Britain 50.5/+1.5 Brazil 43.9/ +3.1 Belgium 49.8/+1.5 France 45.7/+2.3 Spain 42.9/-1.8 Italy 38.6/+0.8 South Africa 46.9/ +7.4 Country Germany 56.6/ -0.4 Poland 51.7/+1.5 Hungary 44.0/ +3.2 Index/3-month change High Low Turkey 42.1/+3.3 Sweden 63.9/ +0.8 Israel 53.6/ +0.1 Cha ge +1.5 Change -1.5 India 65.0/ +0.7 Saudi Arabia 52.6/ -2.1 Africa Russia 40.8/ -2.2 China 70.3/-0.4 Based on data from Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI). Japan 45.0/-0.1 South Korea 45.7/ -0.9 Australia 54.2/+1.3 Arabia Global Average: 50.5 (3-month change: +0.4) Highest (over 60) In: China, India, Sweden, U.S. Lowest (below 40) in: Italy Up in 9 countries: South Africa, Turkey, Hungary, Brazil, Korea France, US, Belgium, Great Britain, Poland Down in 4 countries: Argentina, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Spain 2 Source: IPSOS Largest drops Country Index/3-month change
4 OECD Business Confidence Index Select Regions/Countries February February 2018 Feb-00 Aug-00 Feb-01 Aug-01 Feb-02 Aug-02 Feb-03 Aug-03 Feb-04 Aug-04 Feb-05 Aug-05 Feb-06 Aug-06 Feb-07 Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb OECD - Total Euro area (19 countries) United States China The business confidence index (BCI) is based on enterprises assessment of production, orders and stocks, as well as its current position and expectations for the immediate future. Opinions compared to a normal state are collected and the difference between positive and negative answers provides a qualitative index on economic conditions. Source: OECD
5 Global Monetary Policy Tightening/Easing As of February 2018 The CFR Global Monetary Policy Tracker covers fifty-four large countries mainly those that target inflation in some manner. Tightening policy is indicated in red, loosening in blue. The more a country has raised (lowered) rates, in percentage points, from the most recent trough (peak) in its policy rate, the darker the shade of red (blue). Generally, the policy rate target is the overnight interbank rate, with exceptions indicated. Source: Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), Global Monetary Policy Tracker
6 Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas 2018 Projected Advanced Economies Euro Area Spain Germany France United Kingdom Italy Japan Australia Canada United States Emerging Market & Developing Economies Sub-Saharan Africa Emerging & Developing Europe Russia Emerging & Developing Asia China India Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, & Pakistan Latin America & the Caribbean Mexico Brazil 2018 Proj. Global Output Growth: +3.9% 2017 Growth (Estimate) World: 3.7% Euro Area: 2.4% United States: 2.3% Japan: 1.8% Source: International Monetary Fund: World Economic Outlook Update, January % 2.2% 2.4% 2.3% 1.9% 1.5% 1.4% 1.2% 2.9% 2.3% 2.7% 4.9% 3.3% 4.0% 1.7% 1.9% 2.3% 1.9% 3.6% 6.5% 6.6% 7.4% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Annual % Change
7 Start Me Up
8 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index 2005 March Mar-08 Aug-08 Jan-09 Jun-09 Nov-09 Apr-10 Sep-10 Feb-11 Jul-11 Dec-11 May-12 Oct-12 Mar-13 Aug-13 Jan-14 Jun-14 Nov-14 Apr-15 Sep-15 Feb-16 Jul-16 Dec-16 May-17 Oct-17 Mar March 2018 = where 1985 = Source: Conference Board
9 Feb-86 Feb-87 Feb-88 Feb-89 Feb-90 Feb-91 Feb-92 Feb-93 Feb-94 Feb-95 Feb-96 Feb-97 Feb-98 Feb-99 Feb-00 Feb-01 Feb-02 Feb-03 Feb-04 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism, Feb. 2018: Seasonally Adjusted 1986=100 Source: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)
10 Paint It Black Corporate Profits U.S. Corporate Profits After Tax* 1950Q2 1951Q4 1953Q2 1954Q4 1956Q2 1957Q4 1959Q2 1960Q4 1962Q2 1963Q4 1965Q2 1966Q4 1968Q2 1969Q4 1971Q2 1972Q4 1974Q2 1975Q4 1977Q2 1978Q4 1980Q2 1981Q4 1983Q2 1984Q4 1986Q2 1987Q4 1989Q2 1990Q4 1992Q2 1993Q4 1995Q2 1996Q4 1998Q2 1999Q4 2001Q2 2002Q4 2004Q2 2005Q4 2007Q2 2008Q4 2010Q2 2011Q4 2013Q2 2014Q4 2016Q2 2017Q4 $ Billions $2, Q4: $1.77 Trillion $1,600 $1,200 $800 $400 $0 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis *With Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj); Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
11 Job Openings (Millions) U.S. Job Openings January 2001 through January 2018 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan Jan. 2018: 6.3M Openings Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
12 Thousands Net Change in U.S. Jobs February 2002 through February 2018 Feb-02 Jun-02 Oct-02 Feb-03 Jun-03 Oct-03 Feb-04 Jun-04 Oct-04 Feb-05 Jun-05 Oct-05 Feb-06 Jun-06 Oct-06 Feb-07 Jun-07 Oct-07 Feb-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Feb-09 Jun-09 Oct-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb February 2018: +313K Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
13 National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector, February 2017 v. February 2018 Professional and Business Services 495 Education and Health Services 449 Leisure and Hospitality 325 Construction Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Manufacturing Financial Activities 143 Other Services 95 Mining and Logging Government All told 2,281K jobs gained Information Thousands, SA Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
14 U.S. Labor Force Participation: Men Ages Q4 2001Q2 2001Q4 2002Q2 2002Q4 2003Q2 2003Q4 2004Q2 2004Q4 2005Q2 2005Q4 2006Q2 2006Q4 2007Q2 2007Q4 2008Q2 2008Q4 2009Q2 2009Q4 2010Q2 2010Q4 2011Q2 2011Q4 2012Q2 2012Q4 2013Q2 2013Q4 2014Q2 2014Q4 2015Q2 2015Q4 2016Q2 2016Q4 2017Q2 2017Q4 94% 93% 92% 91% 90% 89% 88.7% 88% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey
15 Maryland Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (SA) February 2017 v. February 2018 Absolute Change Education and Health Services 13,800 Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Mining, Logging, and Construction 400 1,200 2,100 Professional and Business Services -200 Other Services -900 Financial Activities Government Information Leisure and Hospitality -7,900-1,100-1,500-1,900 MD Total: +4.0K; +0.1% US Total (SA): +2,281K; +1.6% *According to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) series MD added 15,616 jobs between February 2017 and February ,000-5, ,000 10,000 15,000 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
16 Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) February 2017 v. February 2018 Percent Change RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE % 1 IDAHO HAWAII ILLINOIS NEVADA NEW HAMPSHIRE OHIO UTAH NEW MEXICO MINNESOTA WASHINGTON PENNSYLVANIA WISCONSIN COLORADO SOUTH DAKOTA IOWA ARIZONA RHODE ISLAND MAINE CALIFORNIA MICHIGAN CONNECTICUT OREGON MISSISSIPPI KANSAS TEXAS NEW YORK KENTUCKY FLORIDA MASSACHUSETTS ARKANSAS GEORGIA MONTANA NEBRASKA OKLAHOMA INDIANA MARYLAND WYOMING MISSOURI VERMONT NORTH CAROLINA WEST VIRGINIA LOUISIANA SOUTH CAROLINA DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DELAWARE NEW JERSEY VIRGINIA ALASKA TENNESSEE ALABAMA NORTH DAKOTA -1.6 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: +1.6%
17 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) February 2017 v. February 2018 Absolute Change Education and Health Services 10,600 Professional and Business Services 3,900 Mining, Logging, and Construction Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Financial Activities 1,800 1,400 2,600 Government Manufacturing Other Services Information Leisure and Hospitality -2, Baltimore MSA Total: +17.2K; +1.3% MD Total (SA): +4.0K; +0.1% US Total (SA): +2,281K; +1.6% -4,000-1,000 2,000 5,000 8,000 11,000 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
18 Washington, DC-Arlington-Alexandria MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) February 2017 v. February 2018 Absolute Change Professional and Business Services 16,600 Leisure and Hospitality 9,700 Education and Health Services 7,600 Other Services 4,700 Mining, Logging, and Construction 4,100 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 2,800 Financial Activities Information 100 2,700 DC MSA Total: +44.8K; +1.4% Manufacturing Government -3, US Total (SA): +2,281K; +1.6% -5, ,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
19 Employment Growth, 25 Largest Metros (NSA) February 2017 v. February 2018 Percent Change Rank MSA % Rank MSA % 1 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA MSA Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA MSA Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL MSA Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA MSA Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA MSA Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ MSA Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV MSA Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD MSA Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA MSA Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO MSA Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL MSA San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX MSA Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH Metro NECTA Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI MSA Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD MSA 11 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA MSA Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA San Diego-Carlsbad, CA MSA Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI MSA San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA MSA St. Louis, MO-IL MSA Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES) Survey
20 Unemployment Rates, 25 Largest Metros (NSA) January 2018 Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL 1 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA MSA MSA 2 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO MSA Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA MSA San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX MSA Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ MSA Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH Metro NECTA Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES) Survey U.S. Unemployment Rate: 4.1% 1. Area boundaries do not reflect official OMB definitions Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA MSA Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA MSA San Diego-Carlsbad, CA MSA Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD MSA Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL MSA Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA MSA Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV MSA Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA St. Louis, MO-IL MSA (1) Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI MSA Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA MSA Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE- MD MSA 13 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA MSA Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI MSA
21 12-Month Net Change Carroll County Employment January 2002 through January 2018 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,000-2,000-3,000 Jan v. Jan. 2018: +1,027 Jobs (+1.1%) -4,000-5,000 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
22 Gimme Shelter
23 Rate 15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates March 1995 through March 2018* Mar-95 Sep-95 Mar-96 Sep-96 Mar-97 Sep-97 Mar-98 Sep-98 Mar-99 Sep-99 Mar-00 Sep-00 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 10% 9% 8% 7% 15-yr 30-yr 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 4.45% 3.91% 1% *Week ending 3/22/2018 Source: Freddie Mac
24 U.S. Households: Owner v. Renter Occupied, From the number of households headed by owners remained relatively flat. At the same time, the number of households renting their home increased significantly (+26%). The share of renter households also increased from 31.2% of households in 2006 to 36.1% in # of Household Heads (Millions) Homeowners Renters Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Pew Research Center
25 U.S. Homeownership (NSA) 1980Q4-2017Q4 1980Q4 1981Q4 1982Q4 1983Q4 1984Q4 1985Q4 1986Q4 1987Q4 1988Q4 1989Q4 1990Q4 1991Q4 1992Q4 1993Q4 1994Q4 1995Q4 1996Q4 1997Q4 1998Q4 1999Q4 2000Q4 2001Q4 2002Q4 2003Q4 2004Q4 2005Q4 2006Q4 2007Q4 2008Q4 2009Q4 2010Q4 2011Q4 2012Q4 2013Q4 2014Q4 2015Q4 2016Q4 2017Q4 70% 68% 2017Q4: 64.2% 66% 64% 62% 60% 58% Source: U.S. Census Bureau *NSA: not seasonally adjusted
26 $ Billions (SAAR) U.S. Private New Multifamily Construction January 1993 through January 2018 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau
27 12-Month % Change S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros January 2018, 12-Month Percentage Change 12% 10% 10.2% 11.1% 8% 6% 4% 2.4% 2.4% 4.0% 5.2% 5.3% 6.4% 6.5% 6.9% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 2% 0% Source: Standard & Poor s
28 Thousands, SAAR U.S. Single-Family Housing Starts February 1999 through February 2018 Feb-99 Aug-99 Feb-00 Aug-00 Feb-01 Aug-01 Feb-02 Aug-02 Feb-03 Aug-03 Feb-04 Aug-04 Feb-05 Aug-05 Feb-06 Aug-06 Feb-07 Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, February 2018: 902K Source: U.S. Census Bureau
29 Months of Inventory by Maryland County February Carroll County: 3.7 months; down from 4.5 months a year ago 5 0 Maryland : 3.8 Months Source: Maryland Association of Realtors (MAR) Source: Maryland Association of Realtors (MAR)
30 19 th Nervous Breakdown
31 % Change from Preceding Period (SAAR) Gross Domestic Product 1990Q4 through 2017Q4* 1990Q4 1991Q3 1992Q2 1993Q1 1993Q4 1994Q3 1995Q2 1996Q1 1996Q4 1997Q3 1998Q2 1999Q1 1999Q4 2000Q3 2001Q2 2002Q1 2002Q4 2003Q3 2004Q2 2005Q1 2005Q4 2006Q3 2007Q2 2008Q1 2008Q4 2009Q3 2010Q2 2011Q1 2011Q4 2012Q3 2013Q2 2014Q1 2014Q4 2015Q3 2016Q2 2017Q1 2017Q4 8% 6% 2017Q4: +2.9% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis *3 rd (Final) Estimate
32 One-month Percent Change Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index August 2007 through February 2018 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb % 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% February 2018: where 2016: % Source: Conference Board
33 Savings Rate (%) U.S. Saving Rate, January 2005 January 2018 (Savings as Percentage of Personal Disposable Income) Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan January 2018: 3.2% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
34 Global Debt Reaches All Time Highs (IIF) According to the International Institute of Finance (IIF), global debt has reached an all-time high in 2016; At $215 trillion, global debt including household, government, and corporate now represents 325% of global GDP; Last year the IMF warned of risks to the global economy: sheer size of debt could set the stage for an unprecedented private deleveraging process that could thwart the fragile economic recovery Sources: 1. Institute of International Finance (IFF), Global Debt Monitor. 2. Business Insider. 3. The Telegraph. 4. Reuters.
35 Shiller Price-Earnings Ratio, Feb-80 Feb-81 Feb-82 Feb-83 Feb-84 Feb-85 Feb-86 Feb-87 Feb-88 Feb-89 Feb-90 Feb-91 Feb-92 Feb-93 Feb-94 Feb-95 Feb-96 Feb-97 Feb-98 Feb-99 Feb-00 Feb-01 Feb-02 Feb-03 Feb-04 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb Feb. 2018: Source: Robert J. Shiller Data used in his book, "Irrational Exuberance" Princeton University Press.
36 Shattered! --- Bitcoin Price, /1/14 5/1/14 7/1/14 9/1/14 11/1/14 1/1/15 3/1/15 5/1/15 7/1/15 9/1/15 11/1/15 1/1/16 3/1/16 5/1/16 7/1/16 9/1/16 11/1/16 1/1/17 3/1/17 5/1/17 7/1/17 9/1/17 11/1/17 1/1/18 3/1/18 $20,000 $16,000 3/26/2018: $8.21K $12,000 $8,000 $4,000 $0 Source: CoinMarketCap.com
37 Time is on My Side, at least in the Near-Term U.S. setting up for best year since 05...; Global economy also picking up momentum, in large measure due to policymaking; Job opportunities are abundant; Corporate profitability elevated; Consumer and business confidence has been surging...; And now tax cuts, including major reduction in corporate taxes... What could go wrong?; A lot can go wrong that s always true first there are the Black Swan threats: I m forever blowing bubbles, pretty bubbles in the air, they fly so high, nearly reach the sky, and like my dreams, they fade and die ; Where are all the pretty bubbles? Equity markets? U.S. bond market? Commercial real estate? Bitcoin? 2018 will be fine better than fine 2019 might be, too, but beyond that, potential deleveraging cycle prompted by a repricing of assets Bad!!!!
38 Thank You Please follow me on Twitter Please look for updates of information at Please contact us when you require economic research & policy analysis.
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