REBUILD & RECOVER. VEGAS HOUSING REPORT Suncoast Hotel & Casino April 22, Prepared by:
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1 REBUILD & RECOVER VEGAS HOUSING REPORT Suncoast Hotel & Casino April 22, 2014 Prepared by:
2 REBUILD
3 The Great Recovery continues moderately. Nevada Recovery Comparison: Last 11 Recessions % Job Losses Compared to Peak Job Month (12/2007), Current Jobs Recession-NV -15.3% 24-Mo. Positive Trend 3 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Indexed by RCG.
4 The return of visitors. Nevada Visitation YoY Growth: Nevada (Jan/14 = 3.96 M visitors) 6% Southern NV (Jan/14 = 3.57 M visitors) 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% NV: 40 Mos.. Positive YoY Growth Last 4 Mos.. Growth Has Leveled Off 4 Sources: Las Vegas Conventions & Visitors Authority
5 Clark County gaming market returns but slowly. Clark County Gaming Revenue: $1,000,000, Month Moving Average $900,000,000 $800,000,000 $700,000,000 $600,000,000 $500,000,000 NV: 34 Mos.. Positive Trend $400,000,000 5 Source: Nevada Gaming Control Board.
6 Leisure & Hosp. s improving operating environment. Healthy increases in avg. daily room rates. Clark County Room Inventory & Occupancy Rates: , ,000 Clark Room Inventory Clark Hotel/Motel Occ % 92% 90% 145,000 88% Rooms 140, , , , ,000 Feb-2014 Occ % Clark Cnty. = 85.0% 17/20 Mos. Positive YoY Growth 86% 84% 82% 80% 78% 76% Occupancy (%) 115,000 74% 6 Source: Las Vegas Convention & Visitors Authority.
7 THE ECONOMY
8 Private sector positive since 2011; public sector shows uptick beginning last year. Clark County Public & Private Employment YoY Growth: Public Emp. Ch. (Mar/13-Mar/14 = +2,000) Private Emp. Ch. (Mar/13-Mar/14 = +28,600) 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, ,000-40,000-60,000-80, , , ,000 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 YoY Employment Change 38 Mos..-Private Sector YoY Growth 18/19 Mos..-Public Sector YoY Growth 8 Source: Nevada Department of Employment, Training & Rehabilitation.
9 Diversified or Not? Clark County Economy Employment by Industry: 2013 Clark County U.S. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 4.5% 8.5% 3.9% 4.9% 9.9% 5.2% 4.0% 10.1% 2.4% 3.1% 2.9% 2.8% 15.4% 11.5% 10.0% 8.9% 19.1% 17.3% 17.5% 17.6% 19.3% 1.1% 19.6% 19.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.2% 5.1% 20.4% 6.0% 5.7% 5.2% 2.0% 11.7% 2.5% 2.2% 5.9% 9.5% 11.4% 12.2% 2.5% 6.2% 6.1% 6.1% 6.3% 9.3% 13.4% 6.6% 7.3% 12.1% 13.0% 10.2% 11.1% 12.7% 13.6% 15.4% 33.5% 31.4% 32.2% 29.5% 8.4% 9.0% 9.5% 10.0% 3.9% 4.2% 4.0% 4.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.8% 2.9% 11.3% 10.6% 11.1% 11.7% 17.4% 16.8% 16.4% 16.4% Natural Res. Construction Manufacturing Trade/Trans./Util. Information Financial Act. Prof. & Business Educ. & Health Leisure & Hosp. Other Services Government 9 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Analyzed by RCG.
10 The real unemployment rate - beyond the official rate. Nevada: Alternative Measures of the Nevada Unemployment Rate: U6 = U3 + All Marginally Attached + Part-time Workers 18.1% U5 = U3 + Discouraged + All Other Marginally Attached Workers-11.7% U4 = U3 + Discouraged Workers- 10.8% 20 % Rate U3 = Official unemployment rate 9.8% 3 Years of Declining U Note: Rates are at a 4-quarter moving-average basis. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
11 Consumer spending returning. How sustainable? Clark County & Nevada Annual Taxable Sales, $B 12-MMA: January 2004 to January 2014 $60 $50 $40 Billions $30 $20 $10 Nevada TRS CC TRS CC: 8 Mos. Positive YoY Growth NV: 44 Mos. Positive YoY Growth $0 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Source: Nevada Department of Taxation; calculated by RGC. 11
12 Clark County has competitive but relatively low wages. Avg. weekly wage below U.S. average. Clark County & US Average Weekly Wages Adj. in 2013 $ $975 $925 Clark County US $875 $825 Clark County Still Trying to Find Its Footing $775 Q3/03 Q3/04 Q3/05 Q3/06 Q3/07 Q3/08 Q3/09 Q3/10 Q3/11 Q3/12 Q3/13 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Calculated by RCG. 12
13 Nevada real household income stabilizing but hit hard between 2010 & 2012 Nevada vs. US Real Household Income: Adj. in 2013 $ (2002 to 2012) $65,000 $60,000 $59,863 $57,380 $55,000 $54,127 $55,627 $53,918 $51,017 $50,000 $45,000 Nevada Real Household Income $47,333 U.S. Real Household Income $40,000 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Census Bureau/FRED 13
14 Clark County weekly hours worked still trying to find, but improvement expected Clark County & US Average Weekly Hours Worked: Clark County US Clark County Still Trying to Find Their Footing, Pt Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 14
15 Rise in mortgage rates will slow effect affordability (30-yr rate has been below 6% for 5 years) 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: 04/ / % 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% Apr-14: 4.31% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve 15
16 RECOVER
17 Nevada Gross State Product struggles to reach pre-recession peak Nevada Real Gross State Product (Chained 2005$M): 2003 to 2012 Real GSP (2005$M 130, % 125, % 8.0% 120,000 Real GSP (2005$M) 6.0% RGSP Change 115, % 110, % 0.0% 105, % 100, % -6.0% 95, % 90, % Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 17
18 Nevada 2 nd in job growth last 12 Months (North Dakota was 1 st ) Annual % Job Growth by State, as of March % 5.0% 4.0% 3.6% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansa California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming 18
19 Las Vegas future actually looks pretty bright. Las Vegas Population Trends & Forecasts: ,000 10% 3,500 3,000 2,500 9% 8% 7% 6% 2,000 1,500 1, LV Population Estimates (2011 = 2.7 M) LV Population Forecasts (2040 = 4.2 M) Annual % Change in Pop. (2011 = 0.7%) Annual % Change in Forecast (Avg. = 1.5%) 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 19 Source: Woods & Poole.
20 Las Vegas future actually looks pretty bright, cont. Las Vegas Employment Trends & Forecasts: ,500 15% 2,000 10% 1,500 5% 1,000 0% 500 LV Employment Estimates (2011 = 1.5 M) LV Employment Forecasts (2040 = 2.5 M) Annual % Change in Emp. (2011 = 0.2%) Annual % Change in Forecast (Avg. = 1.7%) -5% % 20 Source: Woods & Poole.
21 Top 10 turnaround markets in 2013 Detroit Santa Barbara Reno Ft. Lauderdale Ann Arbor Dallas West Palm Beach Boston Boulder Las Vegas 21 Sources: National Association of Realtors
22 Top 10 markets to watch in Salt Lake City 2. Naples 3. Tampa 4. Atlanta 5. Boise 6. Houston 7. Charlotte 8. Denver 9. Seattle 10. Tucson 22 Sources: National Association of Realtors
23 2015 Projection Mortgage rates will likely rise Housing appreciation will rise above 5% Higher than the 2%-2.5% inflation rate But not double-digits as in 2000 s All bets off if Margin Tax passes 23
24 Forecast, cont.: Higher home prices Demand is up, supply is down 12% growth in last year (Case-Shiller Index : 20-city Average) 24% growth in last year (Case-Shiller Index: Las Vegas Metro) 29% growth in last year (Median home price: Las Vegas Metro) Home price growth will continue but at slower rate. Wages & Incomes are key 24 Sources: Case Shiller & Homebuilders Research
25 25 Contact: John Restrepo
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