NEVADA ECONOMY MOVING FORWARD

Transcription

1 NEVADA ECONOMY MOVING FORWARD Presented to: 2015 NEVADA TRANSPORTATION CONFERENCE April 14, 2015 Presented by:

2 THE REALITY: NEVADA ECONOMY 2

3 Nevada job recoveries pre-great Recession Nevada Recession Recoveries: % -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14% Comparison of Recession Job Growth Recoveries % Job Losses Relative to Peak Employment Month % Number of Months After Peak Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 3

4 Nevada job recovery from Great Recession (after 94 months) Nevada Recession Recoveries: 1948-Present 0% Comparison of Recession Job Growth Recoveries % Job Losses Relative to Peak Employment Month US % -4% US -6% -8% -10% -12% Nevada -14% -16% Number of Months After Peak Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 4

5 Millions State taxable sales near all-time high thanks to economic recovery & visitors Nevada, Clark & Washoe Counties Taxable Retail Sales: Jan-05 to Jan-15 $4,350 $3,850 Total-Dec-14: 4,083M $3,350 $2,850 $2,350 WC-Dec-14: 555M CC-Dec-14: 3,062M $1,850 $1,350 $850 Balance of Nevada Washoe County Clark County $350 Source: Nevada Department of Taxation. 5

6 Millions LV visitor volumes back & highest ever; Reno levels up modestly Las Vegas & Reno-Sparks Visitor Volumes: Feb-05 to Feb LV Visitors (12MMA) R-S Visitors (12MMA) Feb-15 Las Vegas: 3.43M 470, , , Feb-15 Reno-Sparks: 390, , , , ,000 Sources: Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority, Reno-Sparks Convention and Visitors Authority. 6

7 Millions Gaming revenues returned moderately due to baccarat; slot revenues stagnant Nevada, Las Vegas & Reno Gaming Revenues: Feb-05 to Feb-15 $1,100 $1,000 Balance of Nevada Washoe County Clark County $900 $800 Feb-15 Total: 795.9M $700 $600 Feb-15 WC-15: 63.2M Feb-15 CC: 674.1M $500 $400 Source: Nevada Gaming Control Board. 7

8 The unexpected raise ; the gas price premium US, Las Vegas & Reno-Sparks Gas Prices: One Year Ago to Current (4/13/2015) Las Vegas MSA Reno-Sparks MSA U.S. Average $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 Year Ago Month Ago Week Ago Yesterday Current $2.00 Source: AAA. 8

9 Home affordability suffered during Great Boom, now near US avg, but?? US, Las Vegas and Reno MSA Home Opportunity Indices: Q4/04 to Q4/ Q4'14 US: 63.2 Q4'14 LV: Q4'14 R-S: US Las Vegas MSA Reno-Sparks MSA 20 0 Source: NAHB/Wells Fargo. 9

10 THE REALITY: NEVADA POPULATION & JOBS 10

11 Nevada jobs bounced back big in 2014, but... Nevada Employment vs. Rest of US (% Change): 2014 Fastest Growing States 1-YR Growth Rate Slowest Growing States 1-YR Growth Rate 1. North Dakota 5.4% 1. Kansas 0.9% 2.Texas 4.0% 2. Illinois 0.9% 3. Utah 3.9% 3. Maine 0.8% 4. Nevada 3.5% 4. Nebraska 0.8% 5. Oregon 3.0% 5. South Dakota 0.8% 6. Florida 3.0% 6. Virginia 0.8% 7. North Carolina 2.8% 7. Maryland 0.8% 8. Washington 2.7% 8. New Jersey 0.7% 9. Delaware 2.7% 9. Alaska 0.6% 10. Georgia 2.7% 10. Mississippi 0.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11

12 RCG s Job Indices show steady job recovery over last 4 years RCG Nevada, Las Vegas & Reno MSA Jobs Indices: Feb-06 to Feb Feb-15 Nevada: 96.1 Feb-15 Reno-Sparks: NV Index LV Index R-S Index Feb-15 Las Vegas: Source: RCG Economics. 12

13 Nevada & its major job markets continue to gain steam since early 2011 Nevada, Las Vegas & Reno MSA Employment Growth: Feb-06 to Feb-15 10% 8% 6% 4% NV Job Growth LV Job Growth R-S Job Growth Feb-15 Las Vegas Job Growth: +3.9% Feb-15 Nevada Job Growth: +3.5% 2% 0% -2% Feb-15 Reno-Sparks Job Growth: +3.1% -4% -6% -8% -10% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 13

14 Looking at another way, the job market as % of the population is doing better 46.7% 45.4% 52.1% 46.6% 45.9% 51.0% 47.0% 46.1% 51.5% 46.7% 45.5% 51.5% 46.5% 46.1% 49.9% 44.1% 42.7% 47.6% 43.1% 41.2% 46.7% 43.9% 43.4% 46.5% 44.5% 43.8% 46.7% 44.7% 43.7% 47.3% 45.2% 44.8% 48.3% Nevada, Las Vegas & Reno MSA Employment-Population Ratio: % 52% LV Emp-Pop Ratio NV Emp-Pop Ratio 50% R-S Emp-Pop Ratio 48% 46% 44% 42% 40% Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Nevada State Demographer, Clark County Comprehensive Planning. 14

15 And the headline unemployment rate continues to drop Nevada, Las Vegas & Reno MSA Unemployment Rate: Feb-06 to Feb-15 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Feb-15 Las Vegas Unemp: 7.7% Feb-15 Nevada Unemp: 7.5% Feb-15 Reno-Sparks Unemp: 7.1% NV Unemp. Rate LV Unemp. Rate R-S Unemp. Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15

16 Percent (%) Nevada s U-6 jobless rate still stubbornly high even with lower Headline rate Nevada U-3 & U-6 Unemployment Rates: Q4-09 to Q U3 U Note: Quarterly figures are rolling averages of the 4 quarters ending in the noted quarter. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 16

17 And real wages remain stagnant in Nevada & Las Vegas & Reno doing pretty well Real Average Weekly Earnings ($2007): Feb-09 to Feb-15 $ $ $ Nevada Las Vegas MSA Reno-Sparks MSA $ Feb-15 R-S Real Earnings: $657 $ Feb-15 NV Real Earnings: $626 $ $ Feb-15 LV Real Earnings: $623 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 17

18 Age of the part-time worker is here until job market slack is absorbed Nevada, Las Vegas & Reno MSA Average Weekly Hours: Feb-09 to Feb Nevada Las Vegas MSA Reno-Sparks MSA NV: Feb-15: 33.5 LV: Feb-15: R-S: Feb-15: 33.1 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 18

19 Is Nevada s economy more diverse today than yesterday? Kind of Nevada Job Distribution: 1995, 2005 and % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 12.8% 12.1% 12.4% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 30.2% 26.6% 27.8% 7.1% 6.1% 9.7% 11.9% 9.8% 12.9% 5.2% 5.3% 1.7% 1.2% 4.6% 1.1% 17.5% 17.6% 19.0% 4.6% 4.0% 7.7% 10.5% 3.4% 5.1% 1.7% 0.8% 1.1% Government Other Services Leisure & Hospitality Education & Health Services Professional & Business Services Financial Activities Information Trade, Transportation & Utilities Manufacturing Construction Natural Resources & Mining Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 19

20 Is Las Vegas economy more developed today than yesterday? Also, kind of Las Vegas MSA Job Distribution: 1995, 2005 and % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 10.7% 10.4% 10.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.9% 34.2% 6.0% 10.2% 5.9% 1.6% 16.8% 6.7% 12.2% 5.7% 1.2% 17.0% 3.2% 2.9% 8.7% 11.4% 29.8% 31.4% 9.3% 13.4% 4.8% 1.1% 18.4% 2.4% 5.4% Government Other Services Leisure & Hospitality Education & Health Services Professional & Business Services Financial Activities Information Trade, Transportation & Utilities Manufacturing Construction Natural Resources & Mining Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 20

21 Is Reno s economy more developed today than yesterday? Also kind of, but leads Reno-Sparks MSA Job Distribution: 1995, 2005 and % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 13.6% 13.6% 14.6% 2.9% 3.3% 2.9% 23.9% 8.3% 8.7% 4.9% 5.1% 2.0% 1.5% 22.5% 11.8% 21.1% 7.3% 6.9% 5.6% 9.0% 18.1% 17.4% 9.4% 11.9% 13.4% 4.7% 1.0% 22.6% 6.4% 5.1% Government Other Services Leisure & Hospitality Education & Health Services Professional & Business Services Financial Activities Information Trade, Transportation & Utilities Manufacturing Construction Natural Resources & Mining Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 21

22 Nevada remains concentrated in Leisure & Hospitality but Educ/Health, Govt & Trade/Transport growing Nevada Location Quotient: Change, LQ Leisure & Hospitality -7% Construction -42% 1.2 Professional & Business Services, -2%, 0.9 Financial Activities -8% 0.8 Other Services, 3%, 0.7 Information, 5%, 0.6 Natural Resources & Mining -3% 1.8 Manufacturing 5% 0.4 Trade, Transportation & Utilities 11% 1.0 Government 8% 0.8 Education & Health Services % -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 16% 0.6 Change in LQ (2005 to 2015) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, analyzed by RCG. 22

23 Las Vegas also still concentrated in Leisure & Hospitality but Educ/Health, Info & Trade/Transport growing Las Vegas MSA Location Quotient: Change, LQ Leisure & Hospitality -6% 3.0 Other Services, 10%, 0.7 Information, 10%, 0.6 *Hidden by Government Construction -43% 1.3 Financial Activities -10% 0.8 Natural Resources & Mining -32% 0.1 Professional & Business Services, -1%, 1.0 Manufacturing 1% 0.3 Trade, Transportation & Utilities 10% 1.0 Education & Health Services Government 10% % -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 18% 0.6 Change in LQ (2005 to 2015) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, analyzed by RCG. 23

24 Reno-Sparks is most diversified. Relatively low Leisure/Hosp Growing Mfg, Trade/Transport & Educ/Health sectors. Reno-Sparks MSA Location Quotient: LQ Natural Resources & Mining -63% 0.2 Construction -33% 1.2 Leisure & Hospitality -14% 1.7 Financial Activities -2% 0.8 Other Services, -12%, 0.7 Information, -23%, 0.5 Professional & Business Services, 3%, 1.0 Trade, Transportation & Utilities 10% 1.2 Education & Health Services 7% 0.8 Government 13% 0.9 Manufacturing 14% % -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% Change in LQ (2005 to 2015) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, analyzed by RCG. 24

25 NORTHERN NEVADA GROWTH FORECAST: TESLA & NATURAL GROWTH 25

26 New Tesla battery plant will help bring thousands of needed jobs to Nevada Tesla Gigafactory Facts Goal: Produce mass market electric car in ~3 years. 6,500 jobs at buildout; 7,646 indirect & induced jobs. Nucleus of new economic cluster for the state. Factory to use economies of scale to reduce costs of lithium-ion batteries. Should reduce battery cost by greater than most expect. By 2020, should more than double lithium-ion battery production of Expect to decrease per KWh cost of battery by 30%. Source: Tesla Motors. 26

27 Job growth to generate millions in fuel tax revenues in Northern Nevada Total Projected Growth-Scenario A due to Tesla & Natural Growth: Households 18,307 Total Percent Growth in Study Area: Jobs: 16.2% Population/Households: 7.8% Population 46,235 Jobs 56, ,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Source: Nevada Economic Planning Indicator Committee (EPIC). 27

28 Growth to generate millions in fuel tax revenues in Northern Nevada Projected Fuel Tax Revenues-Scenario A, Due Tesla & Natural Growth: Carson City $3,515,463 Douglas County $2,997,197 Lyon County $1,747,215 Storey County $8,604,976 Washoe County $41,857,350 Study Region $58,722,201 $0 $15,000,000 $30,000,000 $45,000,000 $60,000,000 $75,000,000 Source: Nevada Economic Planning Indicator Committee (EPIC). 28

29 LOOKING FORWARD 29

30 Looking ahead: Nevada poised to continue making strides. Nevada Employment Trends & Forecast (Thousands): ,000 2,500 2, : 1,582,000 Jobs 2019: 1,760,000 Jobs 1,500 1, % Average Annual Growth Estimates Forecasts Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Woods & Poole. 30

31 Looking ahead: Nevada poised to continue making strides. Nevada Population Trends & Forecast (Thousands): ,500 4,000 3,500 3, : 2,860,000 Persons 2019: 3,102,000 Persons 1.5% Average Annual Growth 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Estimates Forecasts Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Woods & Poole. 31

32 WRAP-UP YESTERDAY, NOW & TOMORROW IN PICTURES 32

33 While 2015 definitely won t be another

34 It won t be another 2008 either... 34

35 It won t even be another

36 But even though still a bit wobbly, the recovery will continue to take hold in Final Tax Package 36

37 Contact: John Restrepo