The Pit and the Pendulum

Transcription

1 The Pit and the Pendulum On Behalf of Park City Chamber/Bureau By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. February 12, 2015

2 Dawn of the Dead

3 Real GDP Growth, 20 Fastest and Slowest Growing Countries Projected 2014, Annual Percent Change (for available nations) Rank Country Region % Rank Country Region % 1 Turkmenistan Central Asia Netherlands Europe Chad Africa France Europe Mongolia Asia Brazil South America Democratic Republic of the Congo Africa Russia Eastern Europe Côte d'ivoire Africa Solomon Islands Pacific Islands Myanmar Southeast Asia San Marino Europe Mozambique Africa Italy Europe Ethiopia Africa Finland Northern Europe Sierra Leone Africa Serbia Eastern Europe China Asia Barbados Caribbean Lao P.D.R. Southeast Asia Croatia Eastern Europe The Gambia Africa St. Lucia Caribbean Tanzania Africa Argentina South America Cambodia Southeast Asia Equatorial Guinea Africa Uzbekistan Central Asia Iraq Middle East Sri Lanka Southeast Asia Venezuela South America Nigeria Africa Cyprus Europe Mauritania Africa Ukraine Eastern Europe Burkina Faso Africa South Sudan Africa Panama Central America Libya Middle East Source: International Monetary Fund, October 2014 WEO Database

4 Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas 2015 Projected* Advanced economies Euro area France Germany Italy Spain New Zealand Australia Japan United Kingdom Canada United States Emerging/developing countries** Sub-Saharan Africa Central/eastern Europe Russia Developing Asia China India*** Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, & Pakistan Latin America and Caribbean Brazil Mexico -3.0% 2.4% 1.2% 0.9% 1.3% 0.4% 2.0% 2.8% 2.9% 0.6% 2.7% 2.3% 3.6% 4.3% 4.9% 2.9% 1.3% 0.3% 3.3% 3.2% 6.4% 6.8% 6.3% -5.0% -3.0% -1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 9.0% Annual % Change Source: International Monetary Fund, January 2015 WEO Update (Estimates for Australia & New Zealand are as of October 2014.) *Real effective exchange rates are assumed to remain constant at the levels prevailing during December 8, 2014 January 5, **The quarterly estimates and projections account for approximately 80 percent of the emerging market and developing economies. ***For India, data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis and output growth is based on GDP at market prices. Corresponding growth rates for GDP at factor cost are 5.6 and 6.3 percent for 2014/15 and 2015/16, respectively.

5 Percent change since end of 2007 What Lies Beneath 70% 50% Profits 61.0% 30% 10% -10% Stocks 33.5% Incomes 4.7% Jobs 0.3% Housing -6.8% -30% -50% -70% Source: BEA, BLS, S&P Case-Shiller, Yahoo! Finance *Through June 2014

6 Park City Visitors Demographic 2013/14 Season - By Marital Status Couple No Children 18% Married with Children 39% - By Place of Residence International Florida 6.5% 8.6% Single No Children 23% Empty Nesters 20% - By Household Income $200, % < $50,000 9% $50,000-99,999 14% - By Accommodation Family & Friends 17% New York California Timeshare 12% 6.5% Condo/ Vacation Home 48% 9.5% $150, ,999 13% $100, ,999 20% Source: Park City Chamber of Commerce, Convention & Visitors Bureau Hotel/Mo tel/ Lodge 23% *1% of visitors stay at B&B.

7 Number of Visitor Nights (in Millions), Year-to-date thru Q Park City Visitor Nights Year-to-date through 3 rd Quarter, Source: Park City Chamber of Commerce, Convention & Visitors Bureau

8 Median Weekly Earnings, Full-Time U.S. Workers* 2000Q4 through 2014Q4 2000Q4 2001Q2 2001Q4 2002Q2 2002Q4 2003Q2 2003Q4 2004Q2 2004Q4 2005Q2 2005Q4 2006Q2 2006Q4 2007Q2 2007Q4 2008Q2 2008Q4 2009Q2 2009Q4 2010Q2 2010Q4 2011Q2 2011Q4 2012Q2 2012Q4 2013Q2 2013Q4 2014Q2 2014Q4 $350 $345 $340 $335 $330 $325 $320 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics *SA, Constant dollars (adjusted to CPI-U) Wage and salary workers ages 16+

9 Recession Watch as of November 2014 Source: Moody s Economy

10 Tax Collections in 2014Q2 vs. Each State s Peak* Real tax revenue still lower in 29 states since recession Source: Pew analysis of U.S. Census Bureau s quarterly tax revenue data, as adjusted by the Rockefeller Institute of Government *Adjusted for inflation

11 Jan-01 Jun-01 Nov-01 Apr-02 Sep-02 Feb-03 Jul-03 Dec-03 May-04 Oct-04 Mar-05 Aug-05 Jan-06 Jun-06 Nov-06 Apr-07 Sep-07 Feb-08 Jul-08 Dec-08 May-09 Oct-09 Mar-10 Aug-10 Jan-11 Jun-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14 Oct-14 Index (2007 = 100) Industrial Production January 2001 through December (Base year: 2007) Source: Federal Reserve The industrial production index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries.

12 1990Q1 1990Q4 1991Q3 1992Q2 1993Q1 1993Q4 1994Q3 1995Q2 1996Q1 1996Q4 1997Q3 1998Q2 1999Q1 1999Q4 2000Q3 2001Q2 2002Q1 2002Q4 2003Q3 2004Q2 2005Q1 2005Q4 2006Q3 2007Q2 2008Q1 2008Q4 2009Q3 2010Q2 2011Q1 2011Q4 2012Q3 2013Q2 2014Q1 2014Q4 Percent Change from Preceding Period (SAAR) Gross Domestic Product 1990Q1 through 2014Q4* 8% 6% 2014Q4: +2.6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis *Advance (1 st ) estimate

13 SAAR (%) Contributions to GDP Growth by Component 2013Q4 2014Q4* Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q Personal Consumption Government Spending Net Exports Gross Investment Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis *Advance (1 st ) estimate

14 Invasion of the Body Snatchers

15 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Thousands Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS January 2002 through January January 2015: +257K ,000 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

16 National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector January 2014 v. January 2015 Professional and Business Services Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Construction Manufacturing Financial Activities Government Other Services Information Mining and Logging All told 3,207K Jobs gained Thousands, SA Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

17 Total Active Skiers/Snowboarders (million) Number of Active Skiers & Snowboarders in U.S. 2006/2007 Season through 2013/2014 Season / / / / / / / /14 Source: National Ski Areas Association

18 Total Snow sports Visits (million) Snow Sports Visits 2006/2007 Season through 2013/2014 Season 66.0 Northeast Southwest Midwest Rocky Mountain Pacific West / / / / / / / / Source: National Ski Areas Association

19 Utah Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (SA) December 2013 v. December 2014 Absolute Change Construciton 10,100 Government Leisure and Hospitality Education and Health Services 6,200 5,800 6,700 Professional and Business Services 4,600 Financial Activities 2,000 Manufacturing Mining and Logging 700 1,700 UT Total: +50.3K; +3.9% Information Other Services US Total (SA): +2,952K; +2.1% 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

20 Salt Lake City MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) December 2013 v. December 2014 Absolute Change Government Mining, Logging, and Construction 3,700 3,700 Professional and Business Services Leisure and Hospitality 3,000 3,300 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 2,600 Education and Health Services Financial Activities Manufacturing 900 1,500 1,900 Salt Lake City MSA Total: +21.1K; +3.1% UT Total (SA): +50.3K; +3.9% Information Other Services US Total (SA): +2,952K; +2.1% 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

21 Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) December 2013 v. December 2014 Percent Change RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE % 1 NORTH DAKOTA ARKANSAS MINNESOTA TEXAS DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA NEW YORK UTAH WISCONSIN OHIO FLORIDA KENTUCKY IOWA OREGON MASSACHUSETTS MICHIGAN NORTH CAROLINA ALABAMA WEST VIRGINIA DELAWARE CONNECTICUT ILLINOIS GEORGIA MISSOURI KANSAS WASHINGTON MONTANA PENNSYLVANIA COLORADO NEW MEXICO MAINE ARIZONA RHODE ISLAND MARYLAND SOUTH CAROLINA IDAHO NEBRASKA TENNESSEE LOUISIANA SOUTH DAKOTA NEVADA HAWAII VIRGINIA OKLAHOMA WYOMING NEW JERSEY CALIFORNIA NEW HAMPSHIRE ALASKA INDIANA VERMONT MISSISSIPPI 0.0 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: 2.1%

22 Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) December 2014 RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE % 1 NORTH DAKOTA PENNSYLVANIA ILLINOIS NEBRASKA VIRGINIA NEW JERSEY SOUTH DAKOTA WISCONSIN ALASKA UTAH DELAWARE MICHIGAN MINNESOTA MISSOURI WASHINGTON IDAHO MAINE CONNECTICUT COLORADO MARYLAND SOUTH CAROLINA HAWAII MASSACHUSETTS TENNESSEE NEW HAMPSHIRE NORTH CAROLINA ARIZONA IOWA FLORIDA LOUISIANA KANSAS ALABAMA OREGON MONTANA ARKANSAS NEVADA OKLAHOMA KENTUCKY RHODE ISLAND VERMONT INDIANA GEORGIA WYOMING NEW YORK CALIFORNIA TEXAS WEST VIRGINIA MISSISSIPPI OHIO NEW MEXICO DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 7.3 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Unemployment Rate: 5.6%

23 Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA) December 2014 Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR 1 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Metropolitan NECTA San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.6 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.6 New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.6 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.6 St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.6 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area Baltimore-Towson, MD Metropolitan Statistical Area Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.7 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.7 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.2 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Salt Lake City MSA Unemployment Rate: 3.0%

24 Nightmare on Elm Street

25 Feb-95 Sep-95 Apr-96 Nov-96 Jun-97 Jan-98 Aug-98 Mar-99 Oct-99 May-00 Dec-00 Jul-01 Feb-02 Sep-02 Apr-03 Nov-03 Jun-04 Jan-05 Aug-05 Mar-06 Oct-06 May-07 Dec-07 Jul-08 Feb-09 Sep-09 Apr-10 Nov-10 Jun-11 Jan-12 Aug-12 Mar-13 Oct-13 May-14 Dec-14 Rate 15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates February 1995 through February 2015* 10% 9% 8% 7% 15-yr 30-yr 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 3.59% 2.92% 1% Source: Freddie Mac *Week ending 2/5/2015

26 Thousands, SAAR U.S. New Home Sales January 1999 through December ,600 1,400 1,200 1, December K Source: U.S. Census Bureau

27 Jan-99 Jun-99 Nov-99 Apr-00 Sep-00 Feb-01 Jul-01 Dec-01 May-02 Oct-02 Mar-03 Aug-03 Jan-04 Jun-04 Nov-04 Apr-05 Sep-05 Feb-06 Jul-06 Dec-06 May-07 Oct-07 Mar-08 Aug-08 Jan-09 Jun-09 Nov-09 Apr-10 Sep-10 Feb-11 Jul-11 Dec-11 May-12 Oct-12 Mar-13 Aug-13 Jan-14 Jun-14 Nov-14 Thousands, SAAR U.S. Housing Starts January 1999 through December ,500 2,000 1 Unit 5 units or more 1,500 December 2014: 1 Unit: 728K 5 Units or more: 339K 1, Source: U.S. Census Bureau

28 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q U.S. Homeownership 70% 68% 66% 2014 Q4: 63.9% 64% 62% 60% Source: U.S. Census Bureau

29 Thousands, SAAR U.S. Housing Building Permits January 1999 through December 2014 Jan-99 Jun-99 Nov-99 Apr-00 Sep-00 Feb-01 Jul-01 Dec-01 May-02 Oct-02 Mar-03 Aug-03 Jan-04 Jun-04 Nov-04 Apr-05 Sep-05 Feb-06 Jul-06 Dec-06 May-07 Oct-07 Mar-08 Aug-08 Jan-09 Jun-09 Nov-09 Apr-10 Sep-10 Feb-11 Jul-11 Dec-11 May-12 Oct-12 Mar-13 Aug-13 Jan-14 Jun-14 Nov-14 2,500 2,000 1,500 1 Unit 5 units or more December 2014: 1 Unit: 667K 5 Units or more: 338K 1, Source: U.S. Census Bureau

30 12-Month % Change S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros November 2014, 12-Month Percentage Change 9% 8% 7.5% 7.7% 7.7% 8.6% 8.9% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1.5% 1.8% 2.0% 2.6% 4.0% 4.3% 4.9% 5.1% 1% 0% Source: Standard & Poor s

31 Utah Housing Statistics Year-to-date through 3 rd Quarter, (units) 32,000 Home sales, Year-to-date thorugh Q3 31,662 31,405 $220,000 Median price, Year-to-date thorugh Q3 $213,000 30,000 $210,000 $200,000 $205,000 28,000 27,491 $200,000 $192,000 26,000 24,000 23,109 23,190 24,554 $190,000 $180,000 $170,000 $179,000 $174,000 22,000 $160,000 20, $150, Source: Utah Association of Realtors

32 Psycho

33 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index 2005 January January Source: Conference Board

34 Sales Growth by Type of Business December 2013 v. December 2014* Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers Food Services & Drinking Places Electronics & Appliance Stores Health & Personal Care Stores Furniture & Home Furn. Stores Building Material & Garden Supplies Dealers Internet, etc. Retailers Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores Food & Beverage Stores General Merchandise Stores Miscellaneous Store Retailers Gasoline Stations -14.2% 8.6% 8.2% 6.8% 6.1% 5.8% 5.2% 5.1% 4.8% 3.8% 2.4% 1.4% 0.9% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 12-month % change Source: U.S. Census Bureau *December 2014 advanced estimate

35 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 One-month Percent Change Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index August 2007 through December % 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% December 2014 = where 2010 = % Source: Conference Board

36 Tell-Tale Heart Economy gained momentum over the course of last year; Tailwinds included booming stock market, lower gasoline prices, stabilizing global economy, and consumer expenditures on interest rate sensitive durable goods like autos; The current year is associated with greater certainty regarding monetary policy that helps; The world is not perfect - black swan threats remain: (1) Iran (2) Israel/Iran (3) Europe (4) contagion (5) cyber (6) EMP; Market is nervous, but perhaps for the wrong reasons (more people benefit from lower oil price than are hurt); and Outlook for Utah, tourism, and the U.S. is positive for 2015, just watch for trees.

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