Metropolitan Area Statistics (4Q 2012)

Transcription

1 Metropolitan Area Statistics (4Q 2012) Apartment Completions 4Q Q 2012 % Chg. Atlanta % Boston % Chicago % Cleveland % Columbus % Dallas-Ft. Worth 1,630 2,857 75% Denver % Detroit % Houston 1,238 2,362 91% Indianapolis % Las Vegas % Los Angeles 1,329 1,188-11% Miami % Minneapolis % New Jersey % New York % Oakland-East Bay % Orange County 154 1,936 1,157% Orlando n/a Philadelphia % Phoenix % Portland - 1,113 n/a Sacramento % Riverside % San Diego % San Francisco - 83 n/a San Jose % Seattle-Tacoma 352 2, % Petersburg % Washington, D.C. 1,000 1,561 56% U.S. Metro Total 69,950 91,249 30% Apartment Effective Rents 4Q Q 2012 % Chg. Atlanta $814 $ % Boston $1,528 $1, % Chicago $1,131 $1, % Cleveland $777 $ % Columbus $713 $ % Dallas-Ft. Worth $803 $ % Denver $932 $ % Detroit $756 $ % Houston $826 $ % Indianapolis $685 $ % Las Vegas $740 $ % Los Angeles $1,599 $1, % Miami $1,110 $1, % Minneapolis $960 $ % New Jersey $1,242 $1, % New York $3,225 $3, % Oakland-East Bay $1,426 $1, % Orange County $1,524 $1, % Orlando $862 $ % Philadelphia $1,087 $1, % Phoenix $738 $ % Portland $889 $ % Sacramento $934 $ % Riverside $1,064 $1, % San Diego $1,380 $1, % San Francisco $2,164 $2, % San Jose $1,777 $1, % Seattle-Tacoma $1,038 $1, % Petersburg $844 $ % Washington, D.C. $1,500 $1, % U.S. Metro Total $1,051 $1, % Apartment Vacancies (%) 4Q Q 2012 Bps Chg. Atlanta Boston Chicago Cleveland Columbus Dallas-Ft. Worth Denver Detroit Houston Indianapolis Las Vegas Los Angeles Miami Minneapolis New Jersey New York Oakland-East Bay Orange County Orlando Philadelphia Phoenix Portland Sacramento Riverside San Diego San Francisco San Jose Seattle-Tacoma Petersburg Washington, D.C U.S. Metro Total Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis, Costar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics 12 May 2013 Multi-Housing News

2 Multifamily Starts 400,000 Finished Goods vs. Construction Materials and Components Units 350, , , , , ,000 Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. 260,000 Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. 1.5% 1.0% % 0.7% Mar. Finished Goods 0.6% Materials & Components for Construction Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Multifamily Starts: The Census Bureau reported that housing starts for buildings with five or more apartment units plunged 26 percent during January 2013, falling to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 260,000. The initial estimate for December 2012 was revised upward from 330,000 to 352,000 units, marking it the highest monthly reading for five-plus starts since mid Despite the large decline in January, starts remain 35 percent above their year-ago level and exceed the level of starts averaged over the last six months of Meanwhile, the rate at which new five-plus permits were issued remained relatively stable in January, increasing 1 percent to 311,000. This represents the third straight month the five-plus permit rate has exceeded 300,000. Overall, these permit figures from recent months have been strong enough to suggest that starts slightly above 260,000 for five-plus units is sustainable over the short run. Interest Rates Building Materials 12.0% Cement Gypsum Nov. Dec. Jan. 1.8 Softwood Lumber Plywood Steel 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% Prime Rate 3.25% 10-Year Treasury 1.97% 3-Month Libor 0.50% 3-Month Libor 0.30% Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Prime Rate 3.25% 10-Year Treasury 1.91% Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Building Materials: The producer price index (PPI) for inputs used in residential construction projects increased 0.7 percent on a month-tomonth basis in January However, the prices for certain building materials have continued to move up sharply. Gypsum prices rose 12 percent in January from December, mirroring a steep increase at the beginning of 2012, and are now 27 percent above year-ago levels. Prices for softwood lumber rose 7 percent in January, while OSB prices rose 9 percent. Lumber prices are up 25 percent from levels last year, but OSB prices have outpaced the housing market recovery, rising 77 percent since last year. The one major area where prices remain weak is steel, which have fallen nine times in the last 11 months and have dropped more than 8 percent below January 2012 levels. 14 May 2013 Multi-Housing News

3 CPI vs. Rent Existing Condo Median Sales Price 6.0% 2.0% -2.0% - CPI 3.5% Rent 2.7% Rent 2.7% Mar. Apr. CPI 0.3% May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Price $200,000 $175,000 $150,000 $125,000 $151,500 Mar. $169,600 Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. CPI vs. Rent: According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) held steady for the second consecutive month in January On a year-over-year basis, the topline reading for consumer prices increased 1.6 percent and has been at or below 2 percent in eight of the last nine months. Core- CPI, which excludes the historically more volatile categories of food and energy, rose by 0.3 percent in January and remained at or below 2 percent for the sixth month in a row. The shelter index increased 0.2 percent on a month-to-month basis in January the rate that it has averaged since the midway point of Compared to January 2012, the shelter index has gained 2.2 percent. Rental costs as measured by the NAHB Real Rent Index have increased 0.2 percent during each of the past two months, and over the past year this index has risen 1.1 percent. Existing Condo Median Price: Seasonally adjusted condominium and co-op sales rose 1.8 percent in January to a seasonally adjusted reading of 580,000 units. Compared to a year ago, condo and co-op sales increased 13.7 percent. Over the past three months, sales have averaged 583,000 units, representing the highest level of sales since September For prices, the non-seasonally adjusted median sales price for existing condos and co-ops increased 9.4 percent on a yearover-year basis during January 2013, coming in just below $170,000. Prices have increased on average by nearly 11 percent over the past four months, which represents the strongest stretch of price growth since late Source: Commentary and Data supplied by Brian Lego, the National Association of Home Builders Brian Lego is a senior economist at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). His responsibilities include producing forecasts of housing data for state and metropolitan areas, as well as providing analyses of various economic and demographic issues that affect the U.S. housing market. Lego has been an economist for more than 10 years, with prior stops as the Director of Economic Analysis for NEMA and as an Economist for Moody s Economy.com. MHN ONLINE For more market statistics and reports May

4 Apartment Transactions: Volume and Prices ($500,000+) Volume ($000,000) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10, Q 10 1Q 11 2Q 11 3Q 11 4Q 11 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Source: PPR, a CoStar company No. Price Wtd. Avg. Quarter Prop. (Thousands) Units Price/Unit 3Q ,229 5,045,999 74,155 68,047 4Q 09 1,457 6,468,297 93,067 69,502 1Q ,175 5,416,617 69,771 77,634 2Q 10 1,541 6,495,134 95,679 67,885 3Q 10 1,538 10,235, ,226 83,062 4Q 10 1,990 12,500, ,952 81,729 1Q ,606 9,160, ,041 81,040 2Q 11 2,115 14,468, ,875 81,801 3Q 11 2,039 13,928, ,496 89,005 4Q 11 2,221 17,202, ,209 86,789 1Q ,022 11,761, ,118 89,702 2Q 2,385 15,729, ,385 90,200 3Q 2,568 17,737, ,897 91,009 4Q 3,218 25,090, , ,954 *Quarter to date Total Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding Government-Sponsored Enterprises Depository Institutions 2012Q3 2011Q Apartment Equity REITs Performance Period to Date Performance (%) Dividend Yield (3-8-13) Price Return (3-8-13) Total Returns (as of ) Q-T-D Y-T-D Compound Annual Total Returns Through Prior Month s Close Agency-and-GSE-Backed Mortgage Pools CMBS, CDO and other ABS Issues State and Local Governments Life Insurance Companies Other Federal Government $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 Billions Source: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds, Reis Inc Year 5-Year 10-Year 5.62% 10.72% 13.75% Source: National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts Unemployment Rate Seasonally adjusted, 16 years and over Percentage of Unemployed 9.0% 8.5% 7.5% 7.0% Mar. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 7.9% 7.7% Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan May 2013 Multi-Housing News

5 Housing Inventory Level Predictions for 2013* Stable Up Down 17% 16% 36% Inventory levels expected to stay the same Since the new housing volumes are still low, 36% of survey respondents predicted that inventory levels will remain stable in 2013, while 31% think they will go up, and 17% expect they will go down. I don t know 31% *Survey of real estate agents, homebuyers and other real estate professionals. Sources: PropertyShark, Point2Homes Market Pulse section compiled by Keat Foong, executive editor. To comment, kfoong@multi-housingnews.com Tune In Join the MHN editors for interviews with thought leaders watch May