HAND/CNHED Joint Meeting. Washington Area Economy and Housing Market Trends and Outlook
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1 1/26/12 HAND/CNHED Joint Meeting Washington Area Economy and Housing ket Trends and Outlook Lisa A. Sturtevant, PhD Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy George Mason University October 25, 212 The US Economy GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1
2 1/26/12 Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Four Recessions % Change in GDP Quarters After Trough 1982-Q Q1 21-Q4 29-Q2 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (s) 4 2 Annual Change in Payroll Jobs US Month-Over-Year = M Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2
3 1/26/12 U.S. Unemployment Rate % = 7.8 GI FCST Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), Global Insight Consumer Confidence Expectations Current Situation 1-7 Jan-8 May-8-8 Jan-9 May-9-9 Jan-1 May-1-1 Jan-11 May Jan-12 May Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
4 1/26/12 U.S. New and Existing Home Sales (s) Existing (Left Axis) New (Right Axis) (s) Source: National Association of Home Builders (New), National Association of Realtors (Existing) The Washington Economy GMU Center for Regional Analysis 4
5 1/26/12 Annual Data (s) Annual Job Change Washington MSA Jun Dec Annual Month over Year Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis (s) Largest Job kets Job Change: Washington + 41, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5
6 1/26/12 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Washington MSA (s) Total = 41, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis (s) Annual Data Professional & Business Services Washington MSA Annual Month over Year Jul May Jan Nov Jul May Jan Nov Jul May Jan Nov Jul May Jan Nov Jul May Jan Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Tot 211 = 688,7 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 6
7 1/26/12 (s) Annual Data Federal Government Washington MSA Annual Month over Year Jul May Jan Nov Jul May Jan Nov Jul May Jan Nov Jul May Jan Nov Jul May Jan Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Tot 211 = 383,6 Unemployment Rate DC 8.1 U.S. 6. SMD 5.5 MSA NVA 2 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
8 1/26/12 The Washington Area Housing ket 16% Growth in Income versus Housing Costs Percentage Increase Washington Metropolitan Area 14% 144% 12% 1% 8% 6% 69% 4% 46% 2% % Median Household Income Median Home Value Gross Rent Sources: ACS 21 1-yr Estimate, HUD SOCDS, Census. GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
9 1/26/12 6. People, Jobs, Housing Growth in the Washington Metro Area % In Millions % % Population Jobs Housing Units Source: HUD SOCDS, Census, Bureau of Labor & Statistics 15 Homeownership vs. Renting, Units Washington Metropolitan Area 13 1,312 1,147 Units (in thousands) Owner-Occupied Renter-Occupied Sources: ACS 21 1-yr Estimate, HUD SOCDS, Census GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9
10 1/26/12 Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-Year 2 212, MSA = % Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 6 Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA All Housing Types % Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1
11 1/26/12 % Average Sales Price Percent Change District of Columbia All Housing Types Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis % Average Sales Price Percent Change Suburban yland All Housing Types Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 11
12 1/26/12 Average Sales Price Percent Change Northern Virginia All Housing Types % Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Home Prices as a Percent of Peak tember 212 Selected Jurisdictions Peak Price % of Peak District of Columbia $6, 9% Montgomery County 62, 77 Prince George s County 35, 54 Arlington County 63, 88 City of Alexandria 555, 86 Fairfax County 575, 85 Loudoun County 62, 7 Prince William County 46, 7 Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, RBIntel GMU Center for Regional Analysis 12
13 1/26/12 Renters Paying 3% or More of Their Income on Rent Selected Jurisdictions % of Renters District of Columbia 49% Montgomery County 52 Prince George s County 51 Arlington County 38 City of Alexandria 41 Fairfax County 45 Loudoun County 47 Prince William County 49 Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, US Census Bureau ACS Estimates Washington MSA Building Permits 2 212, 3-Month Mvg Avg Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 13
14 1/26/12 Residential Building Permits (Units) January - August 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, DC Northern Virginia Suburban yland Source: US Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 6% Residential Building Permits % Multi-Family 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % * Source: US Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis. *Through August. GMU Center for Regional Analysis 14
15 1/26/12 Outlook Near Term Employment Change by Sub-state Region (s) D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Average Annual Change = 36, Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, based on 212 Benchmark data from BLS, Revised 5/1/212 NOTE: 211 Total is the sum of subregions and does not agree with the 13, 212 published MSA total. GMU Center for Regional Analysis 15
16 1/26/12 % GDP/GRP Washington U.S Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis The Region s Housing ket Near-Term Outlook Regional housing market has been recovering; sales activity and prices may soften in the near-term. Rents may not grow as fast and vacancy rates may increase in the near-term. Job growth over the next five years will put upward pressure on home prices, particularly in areas close to transportation/transit and employment centers. GMU Center for Regional Analysis 16
17 1/26/12 Outlook Longer Term Net New Jobs by Sub-state Region Net New Jobs Percent Change District of Columbia 152, Suburban yland 316, Northern Virginia 578, Washington Region 1,53, Source: IHS Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 17
18 1/26/12 Housing Research Questions How much housing with be required to house the region s future workforce? What types of housing, tenure patterns and price ranges will this future workforce demand? How will these housing requirements vary by jurisdiction within the region? Housing Demand by Sub-state Region High Estimates Low Estimates District of Columbia 122,613 36,784 Suburban yland 211, ,731 Northern Virginia 392, ,191 Washington Region 731, ,282 Note: The high estimates assume all workers are housed in the jurisdiction in which they work. The low estimates assume that new jobs have the same in-commuting rates as current jobs. GMU Center for Regional Analysis 18
19 1/26/12 Demand by Housing Type and Sub-state Region Total Single- Family Multi- Family District of Columbia 122,613 9, ,726 Suburban yland 211,612 85, ,84 Northern Virginia 392, ,681 27,136 Washington REGION 731, , ,78 Note: These estimates assume all workers are housed in the jurisdiction in which they work. Comparing Current and Forecasted Units Single-Family vs. Multi-Family Units Current* Needed for New Workers SF MF SF MF District of Columbia 39% 61% 8% 92% Suburban yland 7% 3% 4% 6% Northern Virginia 72% 28% 47% 53% Washington Region 67% 33% 39% 61% *Source: 29 American Community Survey GMU Center for Regional Analysis 19
20 1/26/12 Comparing Prices of Current and Forecasted Units Owner-Occupied Units Washington Region Current $4-599 K 18% $6K+ 15% <$2K 28% Needed for New Workers $6K+ 5% $4-59 9K 26% < $2K2 5% $2-399 K 39% Source: Jan-Aug 211 Sales, MRIS $2-39 9K 44% 42,3 total owneroccupied units Note: assumes all workers housed in the jurisdiction in which they work Comparing Rents of Current and Forecasted Units Renter-Occupied Units Washington Region Current $ % $225+ 9% $ % <$125 46% Needed for New Workers $ % $ % $225+ 1% <$125 54% Source: 29 ACS 329,2 total renteroccupied units Note: assumes all workers housed in the jurisdiction in which they work GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2
21 1/26/12 Housing Policy Issues Local jurisdictions are planning for an insufficient amount of housing to accommodate future workers over the long-term. More housing is needed closer to jobs, in existing and growing regional employment centers. There is a need for more multi-family housing and smaller, more affordable owner and renter homes in the region. A lack of a sufficient supply of housing contributes to worsening traffic and quality of life and threatens our region s economic vitality. GMU Center for Regional Analysis cra.gmu.edu GMU Center for Regional Analysis 21
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