S&P/Case Shiller index

Transcription

1 S&P/Case Shiller index Home price index Index Jan. 2000=100, 3 month ending metro composite metro composite Sources: Standard & Poor's and Fiserv, Inc., Moody s Economy.com. 2010

2 Median existing single-family home price United States Percent change, year ago Sources: National Association of Realtors, Moody s Economy.com.

3 Single-family housing starts United States Millions of units Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, IHS Global Insight.

4 Net additions to housing stock versus household formation Absolute change, year ago (millions) New households Net additions to housing stock Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, IHS Global Insight, Moody s Economy.com.

5 Median single-family home sales United States Percent change, year ago Existing homes New homes Sources: National Association of Realtors, Moody s Economy.com.

6 Housing inventory Existing, Single-family homes, United States Millions Months Available homes for 10 sale (L) Months supply (R) Sources: NAR, Moody s Economy.com

7 Delinquency rate far more severe in this recession Percent of loans past due vs. those in foreclosure Percent Percent Percent in foreclosure (R) Percent of loans past due (L) Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association, Moody s Economy.com.

8 Percent of loans past due 30 days United States Percent Percent 3.8 Percent of loans past due 30 days (L) Percent in foreclosure (R) Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association, Moody s Economy.com.

9 Percent of loans past due 90 days United States Percent Percent Percent in foreclosure (R) Percent of loans past due 90 days (L) Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association, Moody s Economy.com.

10 Millions of mortgages under water Number of homeowners with negative equity Millions Sources: Equifax, Moody s Economy.com.

11 New modifications and payment plans implemented United States Thousands Sources: Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS), Moody s Economy.com.

12 Mortgage rates United States Percent year ARM year fixed Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association, Moody s Economy.com.

13 Housing affordability United States Index Sources: U.S. Census, Moody s Economy.com

14 Mortgage principal and interest payments Monthly payment amounts US$ Sources: National Association of Realtors, Moody s Economy.com.

15 Homeownership rates United States Percent Sources: U.S. Census, Moody s Economy.com

16 Homeownership rates by age United States Percent Percent Less than 35 years old (L) 65 years and over (R) Sources: U.S. Census, Moody s Economy.com

17 Number of applications for conventional mortgages Index March 1990 = ARM loans 2000 Fixed-rate loans Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association, Moody s Economy.com.

18 Government-backed mortgage originations As percent of total single-family originations Percent Sources: U.S. Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, Moody s Economy.com.

19 Freddie and Fannie s share of residential mortgage debt outstanding Percent * Sources: FHFA Annual Report to Congress, Enterprise Q3 financial statements, Federal Reserve Board, Huffington Post. *as of Q3

20 Median home prices in most expensive metros Ranked by biggest decline in 1-year period MSA Q4 10-yr growth 5-yr growth 1-yr growth San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA $ % -15.7% 13.3% San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA $ % -9.7% 11.2% San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA $ % -33.1% 7.4% Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA $ % -27.6% 5.3% Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV $ % -13.4% 4.1% Barnstable Town, MA $ % -14.7% 3.8% Boulder, CO $ % 12.7% 3.3% Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA $ % -44.2% 1.7% Honolulu, HI $ % 25.1% 0.3% Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA $ % -25.1% -0.4% Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH $ % -15.3% -1.0% Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT $ % -13.3% -1.7% New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA $ % -4.6% -3.9% Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA $ % 4.3% -6.1% Naples-Marco Island, FL $ % -11.8% -18.1% U.S. average $ % -15.9% -3.7% Sources: National Association of Realtors, Moody's Economy.com.

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22 Impact of 10 percent decline in housing sales Impact over next four quarters Percent Category Decline Housing Market Real Gross Private Residential Investment -7.2 Real Gross Private Residential Investment in Equipment -6.9 Median Sales Price of New Single-Family Homes -2.2 Average Sales Price of Existing Single-Family Homes -2.1 Consumer Markets Real Consumer Spending on Furniture and Appliances -3.9 Real Consumer Spending on Other Durables Plus Med. Devices -1.8 Real Consumer Spending on Motor Vehicles and Parts -2.2 Consumer Spending on All Goods and Services -0.7 Business Investment Real Gross Private Nonresidential Investment in Equipment and Software -1.5 Real Gross Private Investment in Nonresidential Structures -1.4 Real Gross Private Fixed Nonresidential Investment -1.5 Employment Total Nonfarm -0.5 Civilian Unemployment Rate (DIFF) 0.4 Real Gross Domestic Product -0.8 Source: Milken Institute.

23 Projected impact of one million more foreclosures on single-family housing starts Millions, annual rate Milken Institute projection Adjusted d housing starts if HAMP* ineffective Sources: U.S. Census, Milken Institute. *Homeowner Affordable Modification Program

24 Projected impact of one million more foreclosures on new single-family home sales Millions, annual rate 1.4 Milken Institute projection Adjusted home sales if HAMP* ineffective Sources: U.S. Census, Milken Institute. *Homeowner Affordable Modification Program

25 Projected impact of one million more foreclosures on existing single-family home sales Millions, annual rate 6.5 Milken Institute projection Adjusted home sales if HAMP* ineffective Sources: National Association of Realtors, Milken Institute. *Homeowner Affordable Modification Program

26 Projected impact of one million more foreclosures on median price of existing single-family home US$ thousands Milken Institute projection Adjusted home price if HAMP* ineffective Sources: National Association of Realtors, Milken Institute. *Homeowner Affordable Modification Program

27 Projected impact of one million more foreclosures on household holdings of real estate and other non-financial assets US$ trillions 40 Milken Institute projection Adjusted net worth if HAMP* ineffective Sources: IHS Global Insight, Milken Institute. *Homeowner Affordable Modification Program

28 Real gross domestic product United States Compound annual growth rate Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Global Insight.

29 Job market turning the corner Non-farm employment, United States Percent change, year ago 4.0 Difference from previous month Absolute change, ths. (R) % change (L) Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight.

30 Interest rates Fed funds rate vs. 10-year bond yield Percent year T- note yield Federal funds rate Sources: Federal Reserve Board, IHS Global Insight.

31 Employment by sector United States Percent change, year ago Manufacturing Construction Financial Activities Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight.

32 Unemployment rate remains at high levels Civilian unemployment rate Percent Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight.

33 Households shredding debt Financial obligations ratio Homeowners debt as percent of disp. income Percent Mortgage debt Consumer debt Sources: Federal Reserve Board, Moody s Economy.com

34 Real GDP outlook United States Compound annual growth rate Milken Institute projection Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Global Insight, Milken Institute.

35 Employment outlook United States Percent change, year ago Milken Institute t projection Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight, Milken Institute.

36 Housing starts outlook United States Millions, annual rate Milken Institute projection Sources: U.S. Census, IHS Global Insight, Milken Institute.

37 Interest rate outlook United States Percent year T-note yield Milken Institute projection Fed funds rate Sources: Federal Reserve Board, IHS Global Insight, Milken Institute.

38 Core CPI outlook United States Percent change, year ago 3.0 Milken Institute projection Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight, Milken Institute.

39 GSE & GNMA Shares Fell When Subprime Boomed; Today GSEs & GNMA Are Main Source of Funds 90% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% MBS Share Issuance (Percent of MBS Issuance) Annual (1985 ) Quarterly ( - ) 80% Conventional, Prime, Fixed-Rate Non-Traditional Lending Is Mainstay of Market ( ) Lending Boom 70% (2004-H1) 10% 0% Subprime, 4 th quarter : FRE & FNM 68% Subprime Crisis, Private-label MBS Collapse (H2-) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Ginnie Mae Private-Label Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae Source: Inside MBS & ABS (The Mortgage Market Statistical Annual - Volume II), Inside MBS & ABS (January 8, 2010). Ginnie Mae 28% Private-Label 4%

40 Population Turning Millions Million Sources: US Census Bureau, RCG

41 Echo Boom Demographics Population projections for 20 to 34 years-old cohort Thousands 70,000 68,000 66,000 64,000 62,000 60,000 58,000 56,000 54, Sources: Census, RCG

42 Growth in Population Aged 65+ Millions % of Total % Population % of Total 20% 60 15% % % % Source: Census

43 US Immigration by Decade Thousands 12,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,795 9,095 8,000 7,000 7,338 6,000 5,736 5,000 4,000 4,107 3,322 4,493 3, ,515 2,000 1, , s 10s 20s 30s 40s 50s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s* *Estimate Source: Immigration Naturalization Service

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