Real gross domestic product
|
|
- Jacob Gilbert
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Real gross domestic product United States Compound annual growth rate Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Global Insight.
2 Employment by sector United States Percent change, year ago Manufacturing Construction Financial Activities Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight.
3 Mortgage rates United States Percent year fixed year ARM Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association, Moody s Economy.com.
4 Interest rates Fed funds rate vs. 10-year bond yield Percent year T- note yield Federal funds rate Sources: Federal Reserve Board, IHS Global Insight.
5 Mortgage originations United States US$ trillions, SAAR 1.8 US$ trillions, SAAR Purchase originations - L Refinance originations - R Sources: HUD, Federal Reserve, Moody s Economy.com.
6 ARM share of mortgage applications United States Percent Sources: Freddie Mac., Moody s Economy.com
7 Cash out refinancings United States US$ billions Sources: Federal Reserve., Moody s Economy.com.
8 Median single-family home sales United States Percent change, year ago Existing homes New homes Sources: National Association of Realtors, Moody s Economy.com.
9 Single-family housing starts United States Millions of units Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, IHS Global Insight
10 Housing inventory Existing, Single-family homes, United States Millions Available homes for sale (L) Months supply (R) Months Sources: NAR, Moody s Economy.com
11 Price-to-rent ratio United States Ratio Sources: BLS, FHFA, Moody s Economy.com. Milken Institute.
12 Median home price to median family income ratio United States Ratio Sources: U.S. Census, NAR, Moody s Economy.com
13 Homeownership rates United States Percent Sources: U.S. Census, Moody s Economy.com.
14 Housing Affordability rates United States Index Sources: U.S. Census, Moody s Economy.com
15 S&P/Case Shiller index Home price index Index Jan. 2000=100, 3 month ending metro composite 10-metro composite Sources: Standard & Poor's and Fiserv, Inc., Moody s Economy.com.
16 Median existing single-family home price United States Percent change, year ago Sources: National Association of Realtors, Moody s Economy.com.
17 Median home prices in most expensive metros Ranked by biggest decline in 1-year period MSA Q4 10-yr growth 5-yr growth 1-yr growth Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA $ % -30.6% -48.5% San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA $ % -15.4% -37.4% San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA $ % -7.7% -37.3% San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA $ % -27.0% -36.3% Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA $ % -6.8% -31.4% Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA $ % -17.0% -25.3% Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta, CA $ % -20.4% -24.1% Naples-Marco Island, FL $ % 23.6% -21.8% Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT $ % -8.2% -17.5% Barnstable Town, MA $ % -7.0% -14.9% New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA $ % 11.8% -14.7% Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA $ % 33.4% -13.4% Boulder, CO $ % 1.2% -12.7% Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH $ % -7.1% -12.0% Honolulu, HI $ % 53.6% -2.4% U.S. average $ % -2.9% -15.7% Sources: NAR, Moody's Economy.com.
18 All states had home price increases From 4Q 2001 to 4Q United States = 43% Sources: Moody s Economy.com, Milken Institute.
19 Forty-seven states had home price declines From 4Q to 4Q United States = -19% Sources: Moody s Economy.com, Milken Institute.
20 Percent of all loans delinquent vs. in foreclosure* United States Percent 8.0 *Started during quarter % of loans in foreclosure (R) % of loans past due (L) Percent Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association, Moody's Economy.com.
21 Percent of all loans delinquent vs. in foreclosure* California Percent *Started during quarter Percent % of loans in foreclosure (R) % of loans past due (L) Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association, Moody's Economy.com.
22 Foreclosure rates* on ARM loans United States Percent * Started during quarter Subprime Prime Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association, Moody's Economy.com.
23 Overview of the housing market Total value of housing stock = $18.3 trillion Mortgage debt $10.5 trillion Subprime 7.3% Prime 92.7% Equity in housing stock $7.8 trillion Securitized 60% Non- Securitized 40% Governmentcontrolled 48% Private sectorcontrolled 52% Note: total residential and commercial mortgages = $14.6 trillion at year-end. Sources: Federal Reserve, Milken Institute.
24 The mortgage problem in perspective 80 million houses 25 million or 31% are paid off 55 million have mortgages 49 million or 89% are paying on time 6 million are behind 11% of 55 million with 3% in foreclosure This compares to 50% seriously delinquent in the 1930s. Sources: U.S. Census, Freddie Mac, Mortgage Bankers Association, Milken Institute.
25 Subprimes take an increasing share of all home mortgage originations US$ trillions % Subprime Subprime's share: 7.8% 7.4% 18.2% 21.3% 20.1% Prime 7.9% 1.5% Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance, Milken Institute.
26 The rise and fall of private-label securitizers New securities issuance Private-label Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae 1985 total = $110 B 2001 total = $1.3 T total = $2.0 T total = $1.2 T 2% 20% 56% 4% 98% 80% 44% 96% Sources: Federal Reserve, Milken Institute.
27 Estimated potential losses From unsecuritized loans October US$ billions Outstanding Estimated Loss Subprime Alt-A Prime 3, Commercial real estate 2, Consumer loans 1, Corporate loans 3, Leveraged loans Total for loans 12, Source: International Monetary Fund.
28 Loss projections by vintage and credit grade 2004 Prime 0.8% 2.0% 3.1% 3.4% Alt-A 2.3% 7.1% 14.0% 13.8% Alt-B 2.8% 10.3% 14.0% 19.3% Subprime 3.1% 10.0% 20.7% 24.1% Sources: Loan Performance, Wachovia Capital Markets, LLC.
29 30+ Re-default rates Q1 loans by loan category Three months after modification Six months after modification (30+ days delinquent) (30+ days delinquent) Prime 23.7% 38.5% Alt-A 36.3% 53.2% Subprime 42.9% 61.3% Other 44.1% 61.0% Source: Comptroller of the Currency Administrator of National Banks.
30 Existing Home Sales Trends Homesale Units Price 7.5 $250 Unit Sales (in millions) $179K 6.8 $195K 7.1 $220K $222K 6.5 $219K 5.7 $199K 4.9 $230 $210 $190 $170 Median Home Price (000s) Source: National Association of Realtors. $150
31 Fannie Mae Housing Forecast Unit sale peak: 7.1M in Unit sale peak: 7.1M in 6.5 Median home price peak: $225K in Median home price peak: $225K in $250 $230 Unit Sales (in millions) $178K 5.2 $166K 5.8 $166K $176K $197K $210 $190 $170 Median Home Price (000s) $150 Source: Fannie Mae. Units Price
32 Housing Affordability Key Determinants 20.0% Family Income vs Single Family Median Price Change vs Prior Year 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% Fam Income SF Med Price 15.0% Source: NAR HAI Index.
33 Thousands 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Millions of homeowners are underwater.. Thousands 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000..Some deeply underwater Homeowners with % equity, March 0 q1 q2 q3 q4 q1 q2 q3 q4 q1 q2 q3 q4 2009q1 Sources: Equifax, Case-Schiller, Moody s Economy.com, Milken Institute. 2, Percent
34 Percentage of homes purchased between 2004 and that now have negative equity United States = 41% Sources: Zillow.com, Milken Institute.
35 Impact of 10 percent decline in housing sales Impact over next four quarters Percent Category Decline Housing Market Real Gross Private Residential Investment -7.2 Real Gross Private Residential Investment in Equipment -6.9 Median Sales Price of New Single-Family Homes -2.2 Average Sales Price of Existing Single-Family Homes -2.1 Consumer Markets Real Consumer Spending on Furniture and Appliances -3.9 Real Consumer Spending on Other Durables Plus Med. Devices -1.8 Real Consumer Spending on Motor Vehicles and Parts -2.2 Consumer Spending on All Goods and Services -0.7 Business Investment Real Gross Private Nonresidential Investment in Equipment and Software -1.5 Real Gross Private Investment in Nonresidential Structures -1.4 Real Gross Private Fixed Nonresidential Investment -1.5 Employment Total Nonfarm -0.5 Civilian Unemployment Rate (DIFF) 0.4 Real Gross Domestic Product -0.8 Source: Milken Institute.
36 Projected impact of alternative housing proposals on real gross domestic product Compound annual growth rate Milken Institute projection Baseline Principal forgiveness & vesting Mortgage downpayment insurance Sources: BEA, IHS Global Insight, Milken Institute.
37 Projected impact of alternative housing proposals on real consumer spending Compound annual growth rate Baseline Principal forgiveness & vesting Mortgage downpayment insurance Milken Institute projection Sources: BEA, IHS Global Insight, Milken Institute.
38 Projected impact of alternative housing proposals on real residential investment in structures Compound annual growth rate Baseline Principal forgiveness & vesting Mortgage downpayment insurance Milken Institute projection Sources: BEA, IHS Global Insight, Milken Institute.
39 Projected impact of alternative housing proposals on new single-family home sales Millions, annual rate Milken Institute projection Baseline Principal forgiveness & vesting Mortgage downpayment insurance Sources: U.S. Census, IHS Global Insight, Milken Institute.
40 Projected impact of alternative housing proposals on single-family housing starts Millions, annual rate Baseline Principal forgiveness & vesting Mortgage downpayment insurance Milken Institute projection Sources: U.S. Census, IHS Global Insight, Milken Institute.
41 Projected impact of alternative housing proposals on average sales price of existing single-family homes US$ thousands Baseline Principal forgiveness & vesting Mortgage downpayment insurance Milken Institute projection Sources: NAR, IHS Global Insight, Milken Institute.
42 Projected impact of alternative housing proposals on total non-farm payrolls Millions Baseline Principal forgiveness & vesting Mortgage downpayment insurance Milken Institute projection Sources: BLS, IHS Global Insight, Milken Institute.
43 Projected impact of alternative housing proposals on household holdings of real estate and other nonfinancial assets US$ trillions Baseline Principal forgiveness & vesting Mortgage downpayment insurance 34 Milken Institute projection Sources: IHS Global Insight, Milken Institute.
44 SPM Model Projections of House Prices Model Projected House Price Index Actual House Price Index The SPM Cumulative Excess Housing Supply model projects house prices falling through 2010, stabilizing in 2011 and 2012 (at about -42% below the peak), before climbing in The projected changes are -17% in 2009, -9% in 2010, -4% in 2011, +1.5% in 2012, and +7% in Source: Structured Portfolio Management, LLC.
45 How should the government support housing? Loans Loan Refinancing / Modifications Home Purchase Loans Yes. Reduce foreclosures [Non starter] No. Cost: HUGE Benefit: small Yes. Support housing market Delinquent Borrowers Current / Credit worthy
S&P/Case Shiller index
S&P/Case Shiller index Home price index Index Jan. 2000=100, 3 month ending 240 220 200 180 160 10-metro composite 140 20-metro composite 120 100 80 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Sources: Standard & Poor's
More informationPolling Question 1: Should the first-time home buyer tax credit of $8,000 be extended past November 30, 2009?
Polling Question 1: Should the first-time home buyer tax credit of $8, be extended past November 3,? 1. No 2. Yes, keep to $8, 3. Yes, increase to $15, and expand to all Polling Question 2: Which mortgage
More informationSingle-family home sales United States
Single-family home sales United States Millions, SAAR 6.5 Millions, SAAR 1.4 6.0 5.5 New homes (R) 1.2 1.0 5.0 0.8 4.5 Existing homes (L) 0.6 4.0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
More informationIs the bounce for real? Christopher Thornberg Principal, Beacon Economics
Is the bounce for real? Christopher Thornberg Principal, Beacon Economics Will the real economy stand up? Where are we now? The good news: The recession is over The bad news: we haven t completely fixed
More informationCapital Market Trends and Forecasts
Capital Market Trends and Forecasts Glenn Yago, Ph.D. Director, Capital Studies Milken Institute Los Angeles Fire and Police Pension System Education Retreat January 7, 28 1 Dow Jones U.S. Financial Index
More informationHousing Tax Expenditures and the Economy
Housing Tax Expenditures and the Economy The GSEs, Housing, and the Economy January 24, 2011 Todd Sinai, The Wharton School Housing tax expenditures cost a lot Tax expenditure Mortgage interest deduction
More informationInvestor Presentation. February 11, 2014
Investor Presentation February 11, 2014 Information Related to Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform
More informationEconomic and Banking Outlook. Major issues
/1/9 Economic and Banking Outlook May 9 Major issues Consumer spending recovering? Investment t spending lagging? Housing inventories will take years to clear Bank credit losses will remain high through
More informationThe Obama Administration s Efforts To Stabilize The Housing Market and Help American Homeowners
The Obama Administration s Efforts To Stabilize The Housing Market and Help American Homeowners May 2011 U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Office of Policy Development Research U.S Department
More informationS&P/Case Shiller index
S&P/Case Shiller index Home price index Index Jan. 2000=100, 3 month ending 240 220 200 180 160 10-metro composite 140 120 20-metro composite 100 80 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
More informationU.S. Housing Markets: Looking Back, Looking Forward
U.S. Housing Markets: Looking Back, Looking Forward Dr. Raphael Bostic Assistant Secretary, Office of Policy Development and Research U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Special Thanks Ed
More informationThe Obama Administration s Efforts To Stabilize The Housing Market and Help American Homeowners
The Obama Administration s Efforts To Stabilize The Housing Market and Help American Homeowners November 2012 U.S. Department U.S Department of Housing of Housing and Urban and Urban Development Development
More informationRising Risks for the Housing Outlook
Rising Risks for the Housing Outlook Master Builders Association of Pierce County October 17, 2018 Robert Dietz, Ph.D. NAHB Chief Economist Population Growth Pierce County population growing faster than
More informationInvestor Presentation. May 13, 2013
Investor Presentation May 13, 2013 Information Related to Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform
More informationMaking Home Affordable Program Servicer Performance Report Through December 2009
EXHIBIT 6 Overview of Administration Housing Stability Initiatives Initiatives to Support Access to Affordable Mortgage Credit and Housing Initiatives to Prevent Avoidable Foreclosures and Stabilize Neighborhoods
More informationThe Obama Administration s Efforts To Stabilize the Housing Market and Help American Homeowners
The Obama Administration s Efforts To Stabilize the Housing Market and Help American Homeowners August 2015 U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Office of Policy Development and Research U.S
More informationThe US Housing Market Crisis and Its Aftermath
The US Housing Market Crisis and Its Aftermath Asian Development Bank November 16, 2009 Table of Contents Section I II III IV V US Economy and the Housing Market Freddie Mac Overview Business Activities
More informationThe Office of Economic Policy HOUSING DASHBOARD. March 16, 2016
The Office of Economic Policy HOUSING DASHBOARD March 16, 216 Recent housing market indicators suggest that housing activity continues to strengthen. Solid residential investment in 215Q4 contributed.3
More informationThe Obama Administration s Efforts To Stabilize The Housing Market and Help American Homeowners
The Obama Administration s Efforts To Stabilize The Housing Market and Help American Homeowners April 2012 U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Office of Policy Development Research U.S Department
More informationPolling Question 1: What is the biggest factor hurting small businesses in California?
Polling Question 1: What is the biggest factor hurting small businesses in California? 1. The loss of home equity and less ability to tap it 2. Tight lending conditions especially on credit cards 3. Labor
More informationThe Obama Administration s Efforts To Stabilize the Housing Market and Help American Homeowners
The Obama Administration s Efforts To Stabilize the Housing Market and Help American Homeowners February 2015 U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Office of Policy Development and Research
More informationHousing Recovery is Underway, But Not for Everyone
Housing Recovery is Underway, But Not for Everyone Eric Belsky August 2013 Dallas, TX Housing Markets Have Corrected In Significant Ways Both price and quantity reductions have occurred Even after price
More information2007 Outlook for Southern California Housing
Outlook for Southern Housing Presentation at the RERCSC Quarterly Luncheon Meeting, Cal Poly University, Pomona, March, U.S. Expansion Continues Outlook for Southern Housing Real Estate Research Council
More informationThe Mortgage and Housing Market Outlook
The Mortgage and Housing Market Outlook National Economists Club Washington, DC March 27, 2008 Frank E. Nothaft Chief Economist Recession Risk, Housing Contraction Worsen 1-in-2 chance of recession in
More informationA Divided Real Estate Nation
Real Estate Reality Check Explanation of "What Happened" from the 26 Leadership Conference Boom ended August 2 Mortgage rates rose almost one point Affordability conditions deteriorated Speculative investors
More informationThe Housing Market and the Macroeconomy. Karl E. Case. University of North Carolina February 18, 2010
The Housing Market and the Macroeconomy Karl E. Case University of North Carolina February 18, 2010 Briefly describe some of the connections between the housing market and the Macroeconomy Discuss how
More informationState of the U.S. Multifamily Market. Q Review and Forecast
State of the U.S. Multifamily Market Q1 2015 Review and Forecast Agenda Economy Leasing Fundamentals Rent and NOI Trends Single-Family Market Capital Markets Economy page 3 GDP Growth Contributions To
More informationManaging Your Money: "Housing and Public Policy the Bubble, Present, and Future
Managing Your Money: "Housing and Public Policy the Bubble, Present, and Future PLATO (Participatory Learning and Teaching Organization) J. Michael Collins UW Madison Center for Financial Security Overview
More informationHousing and Mortgage Market Update
Housing and Mortgage Market Update VCU Real Estate Trends Conference October 14, 29 Amy Crews Cutts, PhD Deputy Chief Economist Recession Risks Still Elevated, Housing Contraction Ongoing Recession risks
More informationA Canary in the Mortgage Market?
Furman center white paper october 2011 A Canary in the Mortgage Market? Why the Recent FHA and GSE Loan Limit Reductions Deserve Attention www.furmancenter.org Josiah Madar and Mark A. Willis On October
More informationEye on the South Carolina Housing Market presented at 2008 HBA of South Carolina State Convention August 1, 2008
Eye on the South Carolina Housing Market presented at 28 HBA of South Carolina State Convention August 1, 28 Robert Denk Assistant Staff Vice President, Forecasting & Analysis 2, US Single Family Housing
More informationThe state of the nation s Housing 2013
The state of the nation s Housing 2013 Fact Sheet PURPOSE The State of the Nation s Housing report has been released annually by Harvard University s Joint Center for Housing Studies since 1988. Now in
More informationThe Future of the Mortgage Market: Where Do We Go From Here?
The Future of the Mortgage Market: Where Do We Go From Here? Stuart Gabriel, Director of the Ziman Center for Real Estate, Arden Realty Chair and Professor of Finance, Anderson School of Management, University
More informationTwinRock Partners. Single Family Housing Research Western Region. Newport Beach, California
TwinRock Partners Single Family Housing Research Western Region Newport Beach, California 1 Presentation Outline I. Market Data 3 A. Inland Empire 4 B. Sacramento 25 C. Stockton 33 D. Modesto 40 E. Phoenix
More informationThe Rise and Fall of the U.S. Mortgage and Credit Markets
The Rise and Fall of the U.S. Mortgage and Credit Markets Wednesday, April 29, 2009 11:00 AM - 12:15 PM Moderator: Rick Newman Chief Business Correspondent, U.S. News & World Report Speakers: James Barth,
More informationThe Great Recession 1-2 Punch of Credit Crisis and Consumer Retrenchment
Economic Recovery: Wherefore Art Thou? Jon Haveman Chief Economist, BAC Economic Institute November 8, 1 The Great Recession 1- Punch of Credit Crisis and Consumer Retrenchment 6 GDP Growth (SAAR) and
More informationQ Industry Insights Report
Q3 2015 Industry Insights Report U.S. Financial Services Nidhi Verma Director, Financial Services Research and Consulting TransUnion TransUnion s Industry Insights Report is a quarterly overview summarizing
More informationHousing and Credit Markets Outlook
Housing and Credit Markets Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Springfield, IL Amy Crews Cutts, SVP Chief Economist October 7, Equifax Inc. Government Shutdown and Debt Ceiling! As of October 1 st
More informationU.S. Economic Overview: Implications for So. Cal. And Arizona Metros
U.S. Economic Overview: Implications for So. Cal. And Arizona Metros Ross DeVol Chief Research Officer Milken Institute Presented to Kindercare 9/24/213 U.S. Overview Labor markets: improving but slow
More informationHousing & Mortgage Outlook. Frank Nothaft Chief Economist May 22, 2018
Housing & Mortgage Outlook Frank Nothaft Chief Economist May 22, 2018 Economic & Housing Outlook Effect of higher mortgage rates Inventory-for-sale remains low Less refinance, more purchase & home-improvement
More informationTRENDS IN DELINQUENCIES AND FORECLOSURES IN CALIFORNIA
TRENDS IN DELINQUENCIES AND FORECLOSURES IN CALIFORNIA April 2009 Community Development Department, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Outline of Presentation National Trends Rising foreclosures House
More informationEconomic Risks and Their Meaning for the Southwest STEVE COCHRANE, MANAGING DIRECTOR
Economic Risks and Their Meaning for the Southwest STEVE COCHRANE, MANAGING DIRECTOR The Europeans Are All-in Composition of the European Central Bank s balance sheet, bil 5,000 Other assets Emergency
More informationFannie Mae 2014 Second Quarter Credit Supplement. August 7, 2014
Fannie Mae Second Quarter Credit Supplement August 7, This presentation includes information about Fannie Mae, including information contained in Fannie Mae s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter
More informationWill The Recovery Hold? By Doug Duncan Vice President and Chief Economist Fannie Mae June 17, 2010
Will The Recovery Hold? By Doug Duncan Vice President and Chief Economist Fannie Mae June 17, 2010 1 Disclaimer Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economics & Mortgage
More informationPUBLIC DISCLOSURE. January 17, 2006 COMMUNITY REINVESTMENT ACT PERFORMANCE EVALUATION. 500 Linden Avenue South San Francisco, California 94080
PUBLIC DISCLOSURE January 17, 2006 COMMUNITY REINVESTMENT ACT PERFORMANCE EVALUATION Liberty Bank RSSD - 478766 500 Linden Avenue South San Francisco, California 94080 Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
More informationHOUSING FINANCE AT A GLANCE
HOUSING FINANCE POLICY CENTER HOUSING FINANCE AT A GLANCE A MONTHLY CHARTBOOK November 2013 1 INTRODUCTION In the tradition of the Urban Institute, the Housing Finance Policy Center s (HFPC) mission is
More informationFourth Quarter 2014 Financial Results Supplement
Fourth Quarter 20 Financial Results Supplement February 19, 2015 Table of contents Financial Results Segment Business Information 2 - Annual Financial Results 12 - Single-Family New Funding Volume 3 -
More informationHousing & Mortgage Market Outlook
Housing & Mortgage Market Outlook 2005 Economic Outlook Symposium Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago December 2005 David W. Berson Vice President & Chief Economist What You Want to Know: We expect economic
More informationThe Great Recession. Recovery: Uneven, But Gaining Steam! 2/15/11. Jon Haveman Owner, Compass Economics SPUR January 25, 2010
Recovery: Uneven, But Gaining Steam! Jon Haveman Owner, Compass Economics SPUR January 25, 21 The Great Recession 1-2 Punch of Credit Crisis and Consumer Retrenchment GDP Growth (SAAR) to Q3-1 8 6 4 2
More informationNational Housing Market Summary
1st 2017 June 2017 HUD PD&R National Housing Market Summary The Housing Market Recovery Showed Progress in the First The housing market improved in the first quarter of 2017. Construction starts rose for
More informationTRENDS IN DELINQUENCIES AND FORECLOSURES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TRENDS IN DELINQUENCIES AND FORECLOSURES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA April 2009 Melody Nava, Community Development Department, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Outline of Presentation National Trends Rising
More informationRecap of 2017: The Best Year in a Decade
NOVEMBER 217 Recap of 217: The Best Year in a Decade Macroeconomic conditions remained favorable for housing and mortgage markets in 217. Despite challenges, the housing markets remain on track for their
More information- US LEI & CEI - Yardeni Research, Inc.
- US LEI & CEI - 11 1 Figure. LEADING & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS (=, ratio scale) 11 1 Leading Economic Indicators recovering rapidly. Coincident Economic Indicators recovering slowly. 9 9 9 9 7
More informationComments on Forecasts
Comments on Forecasts Kenneth T. Rosen The Sky s The Limit Conference and Expo November 3, 2017 Risks to Economic Outlook Tax cuts in a full employment economy and a global synchronized expansion leads
More informationFirst Quarter 2013 Financial Results Supplement. May 8, 2013
First Quarter 2013 Financial Results Supplement May 8, 2013 Table of contents Business Results Credit Supplement 3 - Quarterly Net Income and Comprehensive Income 21 - National Home Prices 4 - Comprehensive
More informationReal Estate Market. Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Presentation to New England REALTORS Conference. February 2, 2010 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Real Estate Market Trends & Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Presentation to New England REALTORS Conference February 2, 2010 Housing Stimulus Impact Tax Credit
More informationThe Great Recession 1-2 Punch of Credit Crisis and Consumer Retrenchment
Economic Recovery: Wherefore Art Thou? Jon Haveman Chief Economist, BAC Economic Institute October, 211 The Great Recession 1-2 Punch of Credit Crisis and Consumer Retrenchment 6 GDP Growth (SAAR) and
More informationGeneral Information Statement
General Information Statement The Static Pool Information (SPI) contains mortgage loan data for mortgage loans acquired by Freddie Mac that are representative of the types of mortgage loans that are included
More informationThe Administration s Housing Strategy and Economic Update
The Administration s Housing Strategy and Economic Update Neel Kashkari Senior Advisor to the Secretary Phillip Swagel Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy Department of the Treasury May 2, 2008 Agenda
More informationU.S. Bank Acquires. Downey Savings & Loan PFF Bank & Trust. in FDIC Assisted Transaction
U.S. Bank Acquires Downey Savings & Loan PFF Bank & Trust in FDIC Assisted Transaction November 21, 2008 Forward-looking Statements 2 The following information appears in accordance with the Private Securities
More informationRefinance Report August 2012
This report contains data on refinance program activity of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the Enterprises) through. Report Highlights Refinance volume continued to be strong in August as 30-year mortgage
More informationLocal Economic Report. Winter 2011
Local Economic Report Winter 11 11 SONOMA COUNTY Winter 11 Local Economic Report February 11 The Sonoma County Economic Development Board (EDB), in partnership with the Sonoma County Workforce Investment
More informationThe Foreclosure Crisis in NYC: Patterns, Origins, and Solutions. Ingrid Gould Ellen
The Foreclosure Crisis in NYC: Patterns, Origins, and Solutions Ingrid Gould Ellen Reasons for Rise in Foreclosures Risky underwriting Over-leveraged borrowers High debt to income ratios Economic downturn
More informationEconomic Slowdown Ahead
Economic Slowdown Ahead NAHB Meeting of the Members February 20, 2019 Robert Dietz, Ph.D. NAHB Chief Economist GDP Growth Economic slowdown approaching 10% 8% 6% Q/Q Percent Change, SAAR Annual Growth
More informationStruggling to Hit Escape Velocity MARISA DI NATALE, DIRECTOR
Struggling to Hit Escape Velocity MARISA DI NATALE, DIRECTOR Households and Businesses Deleverage Change in household and nonfinancial corporate debt, $ bil Household liabilities have fallen by $900 billion
More informationFinancial Strength and Operational Excellence
Financial Strength and Operational Excellence 425 Mass Washington, D.C. RiverTower New York, NY Longacre House New York, NY 1401 Joyce on Pentagon Row Arlington, VA JUNE 2010 Trump Place New York, NY 180
More informationEconomic and Housing Outlook
Economic and Housing Outlook Volusia Building Industry Association July 18, 218 Robert Dietz, Ph.D. NAHB Chief Economist Housing Market Growing; Single-Family Lags Tax reform changes Macroeconomics post-tax
More informationEconomic and Housing Outlook
Economic and Housing Outlook Home Builders Association of Virginia June 22, 2018 Robert Dietz, Ph.D. NAHB Chief Economist Housing Market Growing; Single-Family Lags Tax reform changes Macroeconomics post-tax
More informationMEGATREND 1: WAGE GROWTH IS FLAT, BUT DISCRETIONARY INCOME IS UP
MEGATRENDS MegaTrends 1. Wage growth is flat, but discretionary income is up 2. The regional economy is recovering but not yet recovered 3. Consumer behavior is changing 4. Tenant behavior is changing
More informationMacroeconomic View of the Housing Market. Frank Nothaft CoreLogic Chief Economist December 12 th 2018
Macroeconomic View of the Housing Market Frank Nothaft CoreLogic Chief Economist December 12 th 2018 2019 Economic and Housing Outlook Economic growth continues, recession risk rises, interest rates increase
More informationPension Funds: Why Real Estate?
Pension Funds: Why Real Estate? Proven performance of real estate over the past decade across all property types Need for higher yields due to aging baby-boomer population Worldwide appeal due to greater
More informationGeneral Fund revenues and expenditures California
General Fund revenues and expenditures California US$ billions 110 100 90 Expenditures 80 70 Revenues 60 50 40 30 * 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Sources: Legislative Analyst Office,
More informationDr. Jeffrey Michael. Director, Center for Business and Policy Research University of the Pacific
2016 San Joaquin County Economic Outlook Dr. Jeffrey Michael Director, Center for Business and Policy Research University of the Pacific U.S. and California Economic Outlook: Themes Strengths U.S. consumption
More informationAmerican Association of Individual Investors, Silicon Valley Chapter
The Current Status and Outlook for the Economies, Housing, and Mortgage Markets of Selected States and MSAs Specially Prepared for: American Association of Individual Investors, Silicon Valley Chapter
More informationHOUSING AND LABOR MARKET TRENDS: CALIFORNIA
HOUSING AND LABOR MARKET TRENDS: CALIFORNIA July 2014 Community Development Research Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco National Trends Composition of distressed sales by geography Percent of Buy-Side
More informationCalifornia $ Monthly Rent Affordable to Selected Income Levels Compared with Two-Bedroom FMR
In California, the Fair Market Rent () for a two-bedroom apartment is $,. In order to afford this level of and utilities without paying more than 0% of income on housing a household must earn $, monthly
More informationLocal Economic Report
EDB Economic Development Board economy Local Economic Report Fall 28 E c o n o m i c D e v e l o p m e n t B o a r d 4 1 C o l l e g e Av e n u e S u i t e D S a n ta R o s a C A 9 5 4 1 7 7. 5 6 5. 7
More informationNC Mortgage Trends Matthew Martin, Ph.D. Regional Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
NC Mortgage Trends Matthew Martin, Ph.D. Regional Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond The National Picture: 2007 Foreclosures Source: Realtytrac Confidential Information 2 The National Picture:
More informationHouse Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the U.S. Household Leverage Crisis (forthcoming at American Economic Review)
House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the U.S. Household Leverage Crisis (forthcoming at American Economic Review) Atif Mian Amir Sufi Online Appendix Appendix Figure 1 Appendix Figure 1 graphs
More informationPUBLIC DISCLOSURE. March 5, 2012 COMMUNITY REINVESTMENT ACT PERFORMANCE EVALUATION. Bay Commercial Bank RSSD #
PUBLIC DISCLOSURE March 5, 2012 COMMUNITY REINVESTMENT ACT PERFORMANCE EVALUATION Bay Commercial Bank RSSD # 3281510 1280 Civic Drive, Suite 100 Walnut Creek, California 94596 Federal Reserve Bank of San
More informationFirst Quarter 2017 Financial Results Supplement. May 2, 2017
First Quarter 2017 Financial Results Supplement May 2, 2017 Table of contents Financial Results 3 Quarterly Financial Results 4 Market-Related Items 5 Segment Financial Results 6 Portfolio Balances 7 Treasury
More informationMortgage Performance Summary
Mortgage Performance Summary QUARTERLY UPDATE Housing Market and Mortgage Performance in the 1st Quarter, 2017 Joseph Mengedoth Michael Stanley 475 450 425 400 375 350 325 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125
More informationFannie Mae 2010 First Quarter Credit Supplement. May 10, 2010
Fannie Mae 2010 First Quarter Credit Supplement May 10, 2010 1 These materials present tables and other information about Fannie Mae, including information contained in Fannie Mae s Quarterly Report on
More informationThe 2017 Economic Outlook Summit
The 2017 Economic Outlook Summit Southeast Fairfax Development Corporation Mount Vernon-Lee Chamber of Commerce Frank Nothaft, CoreLogic SVP & Chief Economist April 6, 2017 2017 Market: Less Affordability
More informationFannie Mae 2009 Second Quarter Credit Supplement. August 6, 2009
Fannie Mae 2009 Second Quarter Credit Supplement August 6, 2009 1 These materials present tables and other information about Fannie Mae, including information contained in Fannie Mae s Quarterly Report
More informationECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS FEDERAL RESERVE BALANCE SHEET Assets and Liabilities 2-3 REAL ESTATE Construction Spending 4 CoreLogic Home Price Index 5 Mortgage Rates and Applications 6-7 CONSUMER
More informationHomeownership. The State of the Nation s Housing 2009
Homeownership Entering 9, foreclosures were at a record high, price declines were keeping many would-be buyers on the sidelines, and tighter underwriting standards were preventing many of those ready to
More informationHousing Market and Mortgage Performance in the Fifth District
QUARTERLY UPDATE Housing Market and Mortgage Performance in the Fifth District 3 rd Quarter, 2013 Jamie Feik Lisa Hearl Joseph Mengedoth An Update on Housing Market and Mortgage Performance in the Fifth
More informationMidge Jimerson 2017 President Bakersfield Association of REALTORS
Midge Jimerson 2017 President Bakersfield Association of REALTORS It s tangible, it s solid, it s beautiful. It s artistic, from my standpoint, and I just love Real Estate. Donald Trump Meetville.com 2015
More informationOverview and Outlook for Housing in the Kansas City Metropolitan Area
Overview and Outlook for Housing in the Kansas City Metropolitan Area Kansas City Mortgage Bankers Association May 16, 2013 Hallbrook Country Club Leawood, KS Kelly D. Edmiston Federal Reserve Bank of
More informationWeakness in the U.S. Housing Market Likely to Persist in 2008
Weakness in the U.S. Housing Market Likely to Persist in 2008 Commentary by Sondra Albert, Chief Economist AFL-CIO Housing Investment Trust January 29, 2008 The national housing market entered 2008 mired
More informationMBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Outlook
MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Outlook January 19, 2016 Presented by Joel Kan Mortgage Bankers Association Summary of the MBA Outlook 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 GDP Growth 1.9% 1.8% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% Inflation
More informationEconomic Outlook for New England
Economic Outlook for New England Dr. Jeffrey Thompson Director, Senior Economist and Policy Advisor New England Public Policy Center Connecticut Power and Energy Society The Future of Energy: What s the
More informationHomeownership. Cycling Demand
4 Homeownership Falling home prices, stringent credit standards, and stubbornly high inventories of vacant homes roiled homeownership markets throughout 7 and into 8. Homeowners whose mortgage interest
More informationThe Economic Backdrop When will this cycle end?
The Economic Backdrop When will this cycle end? How far are we into the current economic expansion? Current expansion in 8 th year; 4 th longest since 1960 Length of economic expansions (months) Apr-91-Feb-01
More informationDreams Deferred: Impacts and Characteristics of the California Foreclosure Crisis
Dreams Deferred: Impacts and Characteristics of the California Foreclosure Crisis Debbie Gruenstein Bocian, Peter Smith, Ginna Green and Paul Leonard August 2010 Roots of the Foreclosure Crisis High-cost
More information(Table A-2). Again, this is the first time in recorded history. Plumbing the Depths. Promising Signs. The State of the Nation s Housing 2010
2 Housing Markets Housing markets showed some signs of recovery in 29. The question now is whether the large overhang of vacant units combined with high unemployment and record foreclosures will allow
More informationStruggling to Escape the Fallout of the Great Recession MARISA Di NATALE, MANAGING DIRECTOR
Struggling to Escape the Fallout of the Great Recession MARISA Di NATALE, MANAGING DIRECTOR FROM MOODY S ECONOMY.COM Broad-Based Slowing Across the Nation Total employment excluding federal government,
More informationHOUSING FINANCE AT A GLANCE
HOUSING FINANCE POLICY CENTER HOUSING FINANCE AT A GLANCE A MONTHLY CHARTBOOK January 2014 1 ABOUT THE CHARTBOOK The Housing Finance Policy Center s (HFPC) mission is to produce analyses and ideas that
More informationEconomic Forecast & Industry Outlook,
Analysis. Answers Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook, 2017-18 Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Economist & Executive Director of Research Beacon Economics, LLC CBO Symposium November 17, 2017 Beacon Economics,
More information