The Economic Backdrop When will this cycle end?
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- Kelly Nash
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1 The Economic Backdrop When will this cycle end?
2 How far are we into the current economic expansion? Current expansion in 8 th year; 4 th longest since 1960 Length of economic expansions (months) Apr-91-Feb Mar-61-Nov Dec-82-Jun Jul-09-???? 87 Jan-17 Mar-18 May-19 Dec-01-Nov Apr-75-Dec Dec-70-Oct Aug-80-Jun Source: NBER and Moody s Analytics with data through October
3 Macro economic trends Source: Moody s Analytics, ECA, FRB, BLS, S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, CoreLogic, Inc, FHFA, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae
4 Labor market trends
5 Apartment Market Conditions Are we at an inflection point?
6 Head-to-Head Which market has the better outlook over the next 12 months?
7 SEATTLE DENVER 3Q Q-2016 Chg 3Q Q-2016 Chg Job growth (Y/Y) 58,200 65,800 13% 47,200 46,700-1% 3.2% 3.5% % 3.3% (15) Occupancy rate 95.8% 95.6% (20) 95.8% 94.9% (90) Rent growth (Y/Y) 7.9% 6.4% (152) 9.8% 2.2% (753) MF permits (T12M) 16,052 11,709-27% 7,926 8,910 12% SF permits (T12M) 8,493 9,540 12% 8,573 9,934 16% Total permits (T12M) 24,545 21,249-13% 16,499 18,844 14%
8 ATLANTA DALLAS 3Q Q-2016 Chg 3Q Q-2016 Chg Job growth (Y/Y) 77,100 72,000-7% 108, ,100-6% 3.1% 2.8% (29) 4.7% 4.2% (47) Occupancy rate 94.9% 94.9% % 95.6% (10) Rent growth (Y/Y) 6.8% 5.4% (140) 6.2% 4.7% (150) MF permits (T12M) 9,740 12,507 28% 19,962 21,532 8% SF permits (T12M) 19,276 21,998 14% 19,962 22,776 14% Total permits (T12M) 29,016 34,505 19% 39,924 44,308 11%
9 SOUTH FLORIDA PHOENIX 3Q Q-2016 Chg 3Q Q-2016 Chg Job growth (Y/Y) 83,800 58,200-31% 65,400 42,800-35% 3.4% 2.3% (113) 3.5% 2.2% (129) Occupancy rate 95.8% 94.7% (110) 94.7% 94.7% 0 Rent growth (Y/Y) 5.6% 3.0% (260) 7.4% 6.3% (110) MF permits (T12M) 12,565 14,069 12% 6,108 7,305 20% SF permits (T12M) 6,945 6,663-4% 14,972 18,159 21% Total permits (T12M) 19,510 20,732 6% 21,080 25,464 21%
10 SOUTH FLORIDA PHOENIX 3Q Q-2016 Chg 3Q Q-2016 Chg Job growth (Y/Y) 83,800 58,200-31% 65,400 42,800-35% 3.4% 2.3% (113) 3.5% 2.2% (129) Occupancy rate 95.8% 94.7% (110) 94.7% 94.7% 0 Rent growth (Y/Y) 5.6% 3.0% (260) 7.4% 6.3% (110) MF permits (T12M) 12,565 14,069 12% 6,108 7,305 20% SF permits (T12M) 6,945 6,663-4% 14,972 18,159 21% Total permits (T12M) 19,510 20,732 6% 21,080 25,464 21%
11 AUSTIN NASHVILLE 3Q Q-2016 Chg 3Q Q-2016 Chg Job growth (Y/Y) 42,900 31,100-28% 32,300 31,900-1% 4.7% 3.2% (143) 3.7% 3.5% (17) Occupancy rate 95.6% 95.3% (30) 96.4% 96.1% (30) Rent growth (Y/Y) 5.4% 2.7% (270) 6.9% 5.4% (150) MF permits (T12M) 9,796 9,084-7% 6,716 8,382 25% SF permits (T12M) 11,731 12,724 8% 10,395 11,614 12% Total permits (T12M) 21,527 21,808 1% 17,111 19,996 17%
12 SAN FRANCISCO NEW YORK 3Q Q-2016 Chg 3Q Q-2016 Chg Job growth (Y/Y) 53,546 24,818-54% 157, ,494-31% 5.3% 2.3% (297) 2.4% 1.6% (79) Occupancy rate 96.6% 95.7% (90) 97.0% 96.9% (10) Rent growth (Y/Y) 11.5% -1.8% (1,330) 4.1% -0.2% (430) MF permits (T12M) 4,544 4,513-1% 59,398 28,926-51% SF permits (T12M) % 6,472 6,501 0% Total permits (T12M) 5,018 5,077 1% 65,870 35,427-46%
13 PORTLAND SAN DIEGO 3Q Q-2016 Chg 3Q Q-2016 Chg Job growth (Y/Y) 38,400 27,200-29% 45,700 27,100-41% 3.6% 2.4% (112) 3.4% 1.9% (144) Occupancy rate 96.4% 95.4% (100) 95.7% 96.1% 40 Rent growth (Y/Y) 14.8% 4.0% (1,080) 7.8% 5.3% (250) MF permits (T12M) 5,460 7,691 41% 4,391 8,273 88% SF permits (T12M) 6,532 7,561 16% 3,045 2,602-15% Total permits (T12M) 11,992 15,252 27% 7,436 10,875 46%
14 ORLANDO TAMPA 3Q Q-2016 Chg 3Q Q-2016 Chg Job growth (Y/Y) 46,900 53,900 15% 41,100 38,000-8% 4.2% 4.6% % 3.0% (36) Occupancy rate 96.1% 96.0% (10) 95.8% 95.6% (20) Rent growth (Y/Y) 7.7% 4.8% (290) 6.4% 5.7% (70) MF permits (T12M) 5,830 8,592 47% 5,627 5,626 0% SF permits (T12M) 10,978 13,989 27% 8,327 10,693 28% Total permits (T12M) 16,808 22,581 34% 13,954 16,319 17%
15 HOUSTON WASHINGTON, DC 3Q Q-2016 Chg 3Q Q-2016 Chg Job growth (Y/Y) 49,600 12,100-76% 63,700 81,400 28% 1.7% 0.4% (128) 2.0% 2.6% 52 Occupancy rate 94.7% 93.2% (150) 95.6% 95.7% 10 Rent growth (Y/Y) 3.2% -2.7% (590) 1.8% 2.2% 40 MF permits (T12M) 24,190 11,769-51% 10,226 11,318 11% SF permits (T12M) 37,563 35,431-6% 12,170 12,867 6% Total permits (T12M) 61,753 47,200-24% 22,396 24,185 8%
16 CHICAGO LOS ANGELES 3Q Q-2016 Chg 3Q Q-2016 Chg Job growth (Y/Y) 77,100 63,700-17% 97,100 76,100-22% 1.7% 1.4% (32) 2.3% 1.8% (54) Occupancy rate 95.6% 95.2% (40) 96.3% 96.0% (30) Rent growth (Y/Y) 3.8% 2.2% (160) 6.8% 3.9% (290) MF permits (T12M) 6,952 9,098 31% 16,747 14,923-11% SF permits (T12M) 7,760 7,873 1% 4,519 4,779 6% Total permits (T12M) 14,712 16,971 15% 21,266 19,702-7%
17 BOSTON PHILADELPHIA 3Q Q-2016 Chg 3Q Q-2016 Chg Job growth (Y/Y) 78,328 46,958-40% 47,500 54,100 14% 3.0% 1.8% (127) 1.7% 1.9% 20 Occupancy rate 96.2% 95.9% (30) 95.7% 95.0% (70) Rent growth (Y/Y) 5.2% 2.4% (280) 4.1% 0.9% (320) MF permits (T12M) 7,884 7,555-4% 5,297 4,864-8% SF permits (T12M) 4,738 5,224 10% 6,374 6,809 7% Total permits (T12M) 12,622 12,779 1% 11,671 11,673 0%
18 CHARLOTTE RALEIGH 3Q Q-2016 Chg 3Q Q-2016 Chg Job growth (Y/Y) 38,891 28,495-27% 24,000 15,700-35% 3.6% 2.6% (107) 4.3% 2.7% (159) Occupancy rate 95.9% 95.9% % 95.6% 10 Rent growth (Y/Y) 6.2% 4.1% (210) 6.1% 3.9% (220) MF permits (T12M) 6,639 7,023 6% 4,073 3,262-20% SF permits (T12M) 11,567 12,654 9% 8,353 9,185 10% Total permits (T12M) 18,206 19,677 8% 12,426 12,447 0%
19 SALT LAKE CITY LAS VEGAS 3Q Q-2016 Chg 3Q Q-2016 Chg Job growth (Y/Y) 25,000 18,900-24% 34,300 26,400-23% 3.8% 2.8% (104) 3.9% 2.9% (100) Occupancy rate 95.9% 95.9% % 95.6% 10 Rent growth (Y/Y) 6.2% 4.1% (210) 6.1% 3.9% (220) MF permits (T12M) 2,786 2,930 5% 3,152 4,259 35% SF permits (T12M) 3,723 4,157 12% 7,560 8,409 11% Total permits (T12M) 6,509 7,087 9% 10,712 12,668 18%
20 Supply Are we building too much?
21 National Pipeline Activity October 2016 compared to one year ago October 2015 October 2016 Pipeline Phase Units Pipeline Phase Units Planned 805,228 Planned 1,009,844 Under Construction 542,213 Under Construction 595,450 Lease Up 131,751 Lease Up 159,545 Grand Total 1,479,192 Grand Total 1,764,839 Source: Axiometrics
22 Top Markets for Projects Under Construction October 2016 compared to one year ago October 2015 October 2016 Under Construction Units Under Construction Units New York, NY 36,629 New York, NY 44,382 Dallas, TX 32,676 Dallas, TX 42,341 Houston, TX 31,446 Houston, TX 32,740 Washington, DC 21,430 Washington, DC 26,291 Seattle, WA 20,295 Los Angeles, CA 23,689 Los Angeles, CA 19,853 Atlanta, GA 21,897 Atlanta, GA 19,314 Seattle, WA 18,312 Denver, CO 16,707 Charlotte, NC 15,029 Source: Axiometrics
23 High Rise Projects (9 floors or higher) Built Since 2000 by Year Number of Properties Including these markets: 2015 Baton Rouge, LA Canton, OH Greensboro, NC Spartanburg, SC 2016 Des Moines, IA Grand Rapids, MI Madison, WI South Bend, IN Includes conversions; Source: Axiometrics
24 How Unit Mixes Differ from Existing Stock Existing Stock 2013 or Newer 60% 50% 45% 53% 55% 47% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Studio/One Two/Three Source: Axiometrics
25 When Will Supply Begin to Slow? Dallas Houston Los Angeles New York Seattle Washington, DC 35,000 30,000 25,000 Units 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000-1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 Source: Axiometrics
26 Sources: Axiometrics, Wall Street Journal
27 Annual Rent Growth by Submarket San Francisco Bay Area 2014 <2% 2%-4% 4%-6% >6% Source: Axiometrics 2015 Sept. 2016
28 2015 Annual Rent Growth by Submarket Austin Sept % 97% Occupancy Rate Long-Term Average Supply and Demand in Equilibrium 96% 95% 94% 93% 92% <2% 2%-4% 4%-6% >6% 91% 90% Source: Axiometrics
29 Source: Axiometrics Concessions Seattle & Southern California
30 Source: Axiometrics Concessions Houston & Dallas/Ft. Worth
31 Affordability Headline or reality?
32 Reported Rent-to-Income Ratios As of 2015 Sources: MPF Research/RealPage, SeekingAlpha.com, Zillow *prior to sale **based on leases tracked by RealPage software
33 Incomes are Growing Fast for Market-Rate Apt. Renters Based on Rent Roll Data Sources: MPF Research/RealPage
34 Product Class, Rent-to-Income Inversely Correlated Based on Rent Roll Data Sources: MPF Research/RealPage
35 The Cheaper the Rent, the More Affordability is an Issue Based on Rent Roll Data Sources: MPF Research/RealPage
36 The Cheaper the Rent, the More Affordability is an Issue Based on Rent Roll Data Sources: MPF Research/RealPage
37 Demand & Demographics Millennials vs. Boomers how is demand shifting?
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40 Homeownership rate: how low can it go? Home ownership rate (%) Quarterly 4Q Moving Avg Source: US Census Bureau
41 Changing demographics: implications for demand? Net population growth by age cohort (Mil.) Source: US Census Bureau, National Population Projections
42 Urban vs. Suburban Are we overplaying the urban trend?
43 Sources: MPF Research/RealPage
44 Sources: MPF Research/RealPage
45 Sources: MPF Research/RealPage
46 Sources: MPF Research/RealPage
47 Sources: MPF Research/RealPage
48 Sources: MPF Research/RealPage
49 Sources: MPF Research/RealPage
50 Sources: MPF Research/RealPage
51 Sources: MPF Research/RealPage
52 Sources: MPF Research/RealPage
53 Chart provided by Dan Mahoney, LaSalle Investment Management
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56 Predictions What will 2017 hold?
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