Struggling to Escape the Fallout of the Great Recession MARISA Di NATALE, MANAGING DIRECTOR

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1 Struggling to Escape the Fallout of the Great Recession MARISA Di NATALE, MANAGING DIRECTOR FROM MOODY S ECONOMY.COM Broad-Based Slowing Across the Nation Total employment excluding federal government, 3-mo MA 4 Monthly annualized % change Source: BLS FROM MOODY S ECONOMY.COM 2 1

2 Job Creation Still Too Slow Unemployment rate, gain from cyclical low to July 2010, ppts Less than 3.7 Average Greater than 5.4 Source: BLS U.S. = 5.1 U.S.: 4.4% in May 2007; 9.5% in July 2010 FROM MOODY S ECONOMY.COM 3 But Improved Hiring in Midwest and South Job hires rate, total nonfarm, %, 3-mo MA Number of hires during the month as a percent of total employment Source: BLS JOLTS FROM MOODY S ECONOMY.COM 4 2

3 Manufacturing Acceleration Has Paused Average weekly hours worked, manufacturing, 3-mo MA Weighted averages of state figures Source: BLS, Moody s Analytics FROM MOODY S ECONOMY.COM 5 Recovery Remains Elusive for Some Status as of July 2010 data Source: Moody s Analytics At Risk Recovery Recession FROM MOODY S ECONOMY.COM 6 3

4 Near-term Credit Quality in West Is Improving % of $ amount of households liabilities outstanding 30 to 90 days Sources: BLS, Moody s Analytics FROM MOODY S ECONOMY.COM 7 Investment Drives Durable Goods Makers Manufacturing employment, % of total, 2009 Core capital goods less autos Sources: BLS, Moody's Analytics Greater than 2.5% Near average Less than 0.8% U.S.=2.1% FROM MOODY S ECONOMY.COM 8 4

5 And Some Tech-Producing Areas High-tech employment, % of total, 2009 Sources: BLS, Moody's Analytics Greater than 5.0% Near Average Less than 2.3% U.S.=4.7% FROM MOODY S ECONOMY.COM 9 Exports Will Drive Long-Term Growth Value of exports of commodities and goods, % of GSP Sources: Census, Moody s Analytics FROM MOODY S ECONOMY.COM 10 5

6 Exporting Metro Areas Are Nearly Everywhere Exports share of GDP, %, 2007 Greater than 10.9% Near average Less than 3.5% Sources: International Trade Administration, BEA, BLS, Moody's Analytics FROM MOODY S ECONOMY.COM 11 The West s Foreclosure Invetory Is Daunting Homes in foreclosure, % of owner-occupied housing stock Sources: RealtyTrac, Census, Moody s Analytics FROM MOODY S ECONOMY.COM 12 6

7 New Employment Peaks Will Come Slowly Projected quarter of new peak in employment, August forecast U.S. = 2013Q2 2009Q1-2011Q4 2012Q1-2012Q4 2013Q1-2014Q4 2015Q1 or later FROM MOODY S ECONOMY.COM 13 Midwest: Automaking Areas Will Improve Employment, % change yr ago Cleveland St. Louis Indianapolis Minneapolis Cincinnati Chicago Columbus U.S. Kansas City Milwaukee Warren Lake County Detroit 2010Q4 2011Q Source: Moody s Analytics, August forecast FROM MOODY S ECONOMY.COM 14 7

8 Northeast: Uncertain Finance Weighs On 2011 Employment, % change yr ago Long Island Pittsburgh Boston New York Washington Cambridge Philadelphia U.S. Providence Edison, NJ Baltimore Newark 2010Q4 2011Q Source: Moody s Analytics, August forecast FROM MOODY S ECONOMY.COM 15 South: Some Improvement in Florida & Atlanta Employment, % change yr ago Austin Dallas Ft. Worth Charlotte Orlando Houston San Antonio Virginia Beach Atlanta U.S. Tampa Ft. Lauderdale Miami 2010Q4 2011Q Source: Moody s Analytics, August forecast FROM MOODY S ECONOMY.COM 16 8

9 West: Depends Upon Housing Stability Employment, % change yr ago Orange Co. Seattle San Jose San Diego Phoenix U.S. Los Angeles Portland Riverside Sacramento San Fran. Oakland Denver Las Vegas 2010Q4 2011Q Source: Moody s Analytics, August forecast FROM MOODY S ECONOMY.COM North Walnut Street Suite 500 West Chester, PA

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