Captain CREDIT Crunch
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1 Captain CREDIT Crunch April 9, 2008 Presented by: Patrick Devereaux Senior Director
2 The Times They Are A-Changin
3 Post Credit Crunch Investment Market Fundamentals Of Commercial Real Estate Remain Strong # of Transactions and Listings Decreasing Loan Defeasance Costs Have Increased 1031 Exchange Markets and TIC Markets Are Drying Up Substantial Amounts Of Capital On Sidelines Deals Are Closing With TLC!!
4 2006 vs 2007 Investment Activity US - $, In Billions $3.0 $2.0 $1.0 $2.2B $2.7B $3.0B $1.3B $ Jan - June July - Dec
5 Properties Listed For Sale April-06 April-07 Current Industrial Office Retail Total 38
6 $$ Volume of Investment Sales Greater Than $1,000,000 $5,000 5,300 4,100 $4,000 (US-$, In Millions) $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 3,201 2,215 2,090 1,303 1,321 1,335 1,052 1,285 1, ,500 $0 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 Source: CoStar, Cushman & Wakefield Research Services.
7 Post Credit Crunch Investment Market Fundamentals Of Commercial Real Estate Remain Strong # of Transactions and Listings Decreasing Loan Defeasance Costs Have Increased 1031 Exchange Markets and TIC Markets Are Drying Up Substantial Amounts Of Capital On Sidelines Deals Are Closing With TLC!!
8 National Commercial Equity Funds $350 $318 In Billions $300 $250 $200 $150 $130 $236 $100 $50 $47 $58 $64 $90 $
9 Foreign Investment in USA Global Real Estate Investment Annual Investment Volumes ($B) Source: Cushman & Wakefield, PropertyData, RCA
10 How Are Transactions Getting Financed Conduits Life Banks Private Lenders
11 Capital Crunch Impact on Pricing & Underwriting Debt Parameters Are Driving Pricing & Underwriting Assumptions Have Become Much More Conservative Number Of Packages And Offers Decreased CAPs Increasing But Pricing Still Near Historical Highs Brokers Using List Prices Again
12 What Do The Capital Markets Want To Buy?? Deals With Assumable Debt!!! Office - Occupancy above 85% and Upside Retail - Core Assets - Grocery Anchored Industrial - Core Distribution Assets Between $10M-15M for Private Capital Assets Between $25M-$35M For Institutional Capital
13 Why Will Denver Weather The Crunch?? Housing Markets Have Not Collapsed As Much Job Growth Out Paces National Averages New Companies Are Relocating To Denver More Diversified Economy - Growth Was Organic Limited New Office Construction Big 3 Industries Driving Denver s Growth Are Somewhat Recession Proof Energy Aerospace / Defense Biotech
14 Housing Value Decline Change Denver Avoids the Boom and Bust Housing Cycle Year-Over-Year Percentage Change (Through January 2008) 25.0% 20.0% Denver US 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 Source: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Cushman & Wakefield Research Services.
15 Job Growth Change Job Growth in Denver Outpaces U.S. Year-Over-Year Percentage Change (Through January 2008) 7.5% 5.0% 2.5% Denver US 2.1% 0.0% 0.7% -2.5% -5.0% '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Cushman & Wakefield Research Services.
16 Why Will Denver Weather The Crunch?? Housing Markets Have Not Collapsed As Much Job Growth Out Paces National Averages New Companies Are Relocating To Denver More Diversified Economy - Growth Was Organic Limited New Office Construction Big 3 Industries Driving Denver s Growth Are Somewhat Recession Proof Energy Aerospace / Defense Biotech
17 Office Construction Underway Percent of Inventory Miami Seattle Phoenix Washington - Baltimore Dallas - Ft. Boston Kansas City Chicago Minneapolis New York Atlanta San Francisco San Jose Houston No. New Philadelphia Sacramento Detroit San Diego Denver Orange Tampa East Bay Columbus Los Angeles St. Louis 1.15% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
18 Why Will Denver Weather The Crunch?? Housing Markets Have Not Collapsed As Much Job Growth Out Paces National Averages New Companies Are Relocating To Denver More Diversified Economy - Growth Was Organic Limited New Office Construction Big 3 Industries Driving Denver s Growth Are Somewhat Recession Proof Energy Aerospace / Defense Biotech
19 What s Next?? Capital Markets Will Stabilize - They Always Do Denver Will Continue To Attract Capital For Investments Office Vacancy Rates Will Not Go As High As Past Cycles $$ Volume Of Transactions Will Be Down In 2008 Pricing Will Be Down But Still Close To Historical Highs There Will Continue To Be A Surplus Of Capital In Market
20 The Times They Are A-Changing
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