CBRE CAP RATE SURVEY. A CBRE Publication. First Half Click to Enter

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1 CBRE CAP RATE SURVEY A CBRE Publication In This Issue: pg 2 pg 8 pg 17 pg 26 pg 36 pg 41 pg 44 Click to Enter

2 United States The 10-year Treasury (UST) was measurably lower than 2% from April 2012 through early May of this year, but this recent period of record-low interest rates could not last forever. Between May 1 and August 1, 2013, the 10-year UST shot up 110 basis points (bps) due to fears of an early end to the Federal Reserve Bank s Quantitative Easing (QE) program. The expectation of many market participants today is that interest rates will be moving even higher than current levels. The possibility of such further increases weighs heavily on the minds of commercial real estate investors. Interest rates will certainly be moving higher than they are today that concept is accepted as a given by most investors. What really matters for commercial real estate performance is where interest rates will ultimately settle, and what factors are driving these rate increases. There are some positive forces behind at least a portion of the interest rate increase, and these forces can help offset the impact on asset values. Where will the 10-year Treasury settle in the end? There are a variety of opinions regarding this question. The Wall Street Journal produces a monthly consensus survey of roughly 50 top economists on this issue, and the chart at right shows a summary of their responses for August A few believe the Treasury will go quite high reaching 4.5% to 5.0% by 2015 while others expect we will stay within a sub-3.0% range over the next two years. In general, these forecasts have the 10-year UST averaging 2.8% at year-end 2013 and 3.8% at year-end Should these predicted increases be keeping commercial real estate investors awake at night? The mid-year 2013 CBRE Cap Rate Survey shows that in the office sector, Ten Year Treasury, % A Wide Variety of Outlooks for the Ten-Year Treasury the average cap rate for stabilized Class A assets in CBD locations is %. Throughout the second quarter, the 10-year UST averaged 2.0%, yielding a 370-bps spread between the risk-free asset and the one-year return on such high-quality properties. Would a move to 3.8% for the 10- year Treasury imply a cap-rate shift of up to 7.5% for high-quality CBD office assets? Source: WSJ Consensus Survey, August 2013 Make no mistake: If cap rates for stabilized Class A office assets in CBD 2

3 United States (continued) locations moved from 5.7% to 7.5% in two years, asset values would be obliterated, suffering a roughly 25% decline, assuming no changes in property income. However, this line of thinking is flawed, as there is no constant spread between cap rates and interest rates over time. In fact, as shown in the following chart, the appraisal-based cap-rate data for the high-quality CBD office assets held by investment managers contributing data to NCREIF have exhibited a roughly 250-bps spread to the 10-year Treasury. The comparable spread for the CBRE Cap Rate Survey figure would be 330 bps, given the inclusion of data in secondary and tertiary markets where NCREIF is typically under-represented. The spread between cap rates and interest rates has not remained constant over time, just as investor perceptions of the risks in the CBD office Cap Rate Spreads to the Ten-Year Treasury Are Not Constant BPS Spread, CBD to Ten-Year Since 1993, the spread has averaged 250 bps Source: NCREIF, Q

4 United States (continued) sector have not remained constant. This is true for all major property sectors, with the perception of risk rising and falling. This perception of risk is still at a high level relative to the long-term trend, as limited job growth creates some hesitancy around future income given the prospects of leasing space at higher rents. This hesitancy is where the positive forces behind the interest-rate increases surface. While low interest rates early in 2013 can be partially attributed to the QE program helping to hold down the long end of the yield curve, the low levels were also due to investors expectations for only moderate job growth and for limited hiring and investment activity on the part of corporate America. The market consensus is that the Fed will start tapering the QE program in September 2013; however, the tapering may be delayed if economic indicators become less positive. Beyond 2013, interest rate increases will be more heavily driven by the fact that investors will have more attractive alternatives for their investment capital than to warehouse it in the safety of government debt. Firms will be deploying capital to grow their businesses with investments such as taking on new workers. CBRE s Econometric Advisors business unit (CBRE-EA) is forecasting that U.S. job growth will expand to an average monthly pace of 175,000 in 2014 and 2015 as the recovery gains momentum. To put this figure in context, in the 2003-to-2006 timeframe, an average of 129,000 jobs were added per month. Because of this accelerating job growth, moving forward we expect the income side of commercial property investing to accelerate. For instance, CBRE-EA is forecasting that rent growth in the CBD office market nationally will average 3.6% per year over the next two years, and 4.0% per year over the next five. This expansion is stemming from a combination of limited construction and a recovery in job growth that is pushing down vacancy rates and providing asset managers more leverage in negotiating lease renewals. As income grows and leasing becomes more steady, the spread between cap rates and the risk-free rate should continue to compress from the current high levels. If, for example, the spread between the CBRE Cap Rate Survey Class A CBD office benchmark compressed to just the longterm 330-bps spread by the end of 2015 (again, assuming no income changes along the way), an investment in the current environment would experience value deterioration of 20%. While better than a 25% loss, a 20% loss would still be quite painful. 4

5 United States (continued) A contrary perspective is that cap rates have much more room to fall over the next two years. In previous periods of recovery to expansion, the spread did not fall to the long-term average and stop there and it is not likely to do so this time around either. Because of the unwinding of the deleveraging process that has hampered the U.S. economy throughout the recession, there is in the current environment an expectation that more debt will become available in the coming years, providing greater investment capital for real estate. Factoring in the impact of increased debt availability moving forward, CBRE-EA forecasts that cap rates will fall even further below their long-term levels by In the case of the Class A CBD office market, this compression would suggest that cap rates will reach the 6.3% level by the end of While such an increase would represent a 10% loss of value if there were no income changes to accompany the cap rate expansion, we expect the market itself to see 3.6%-per-year rent growth over the next two years. This rent growth will help to cushion the cap-rate induced change in values. The following table highlights the relevant impacts for each of the major sectors covered by the CBRE Cap Rate Survey. Class A Assets Cap Rate Outlook BPS Spread Class A for Year End 2015 Value Change in Two Years Solely From Cap Rate Change Annual Income Growth Needed Over Ten Years for an 8% Unleveraged IRR CBD 5.7% 6.8% % -10.0% 3.1% Suburban 6.8% 7.9% % -8.5% 1.9% 6.3% 7.1% % -9.3% 2.8% Neighborhood 6.3% 6.9% % -7.0% 2.5% Power Centers 6.9% 7.6% % -6.5% 1.9% Multi-Housing Infill 4.6% 5.3% % -3.2% 4.1% Multi-Housing Suburban 5.3% 5.9% % -2.8% 3.2% Luxury, CBD 7.0% N/A N/A 7.3% -4.5% 1.2% Luxury, Suburbs 7.5% N/A N/A 7.8% -4.2% 0.7% Source: CBRE Cap Rate Survey, CBRE Econometric Advisors 5

6 United States (continued) The income growth needed to cushion the loss in value that should be seen from cap rate expansion would be somewhat high relative to historical trends over a two-year period for the core-like stabilized Class A assets. Over an extended holding period however, the short term impact of cap rate changes can be cushioned more fully with years of income growth. Given the more extended forecast for cap rates from the CBRE-EA team, over a 10-year period, the income growth needed to achieve an 8% unleveraged IRR is well below the rate of inflation for most of the property sectors highlighted in the preceding table. By mid-year 2013, the office vacancy rate was at 15.2% nationally, versus 15.8% for mid-year This 60-bps decline in the office vacancy rate came about from declining vacancy in both CBD and suburban submarkets, though the bulk of the decline stemmed from the suburban submarkets. The vacancy rate for CBD submarkets fell 40 bps from one year earlier to hit 12.3%. The vacancy rate for suburban submarkets fell more quickly, however, dropping some 70 bps from a year earlier to hit 16.8%. Overall, there is still more slack capacity in the suburban submarkets, for while the current 16.8% is far better than the 18.7% level seen in 2010, it is still higher than the 16.1% average recorded since CBD vacancy rates, by contrast, are now below the long-term average of 12.8%. The increasing pace of suburban vacancy declines and the slack capacity that still exists provide an opportunity for investors looking to generate additional income by taking on the leasing risks of office assets in suburban submarkets. availability was at 12.0% nationally at mid-year This level is well above the long-term average availability rate of 10%. While these figures suggest a fair amount of slack capacity in the industrial markets, average asking rents are actually rising, having posted a 4.4% increase over the year-earlier period. One of the issues influencing the availability rate is the significant amount of functionally obsolete space built into the overall availability figure. Some markets are outperforming on the income side: Key distribution hubs like the Inland Empire and Dallas have seen annual growth in asking rents of 12.1% and 11.5%, respectively. Meanwhile, metro areas where the industrial market is focused on the high-tech sector such as San Francisco and San Jose have seen asking-rent growth in excess of 7%. The retail sector has lagged other property types throughout the recovery period. However, retail leasing is now catching up with other property sectors, and availability rates are down 60 bps from a year earlier, having fallen to 12.3% by mid-year This improvement has come about despite a fairly weak recovery in demand; net absorption in the first half of 2013 averaged roughly 67% of the peak levels seen from 2005 to Still, while demand remains tepid, the growth in supply has been even weaker only 8% of the 2005-to-2007 levels. 6

7 United States (continued) When reviewing the income potential of the retail sector, the results of our Cap Rate Survey suggest two patterns in investor behavior. Surprisingly, the markets with the largest inventory have the lowest cap rates. Chicago, Houston, Atlanta and Los Angeles have cap rates ranging from 5.8% to 6.1% for stabilized Class A neighborhood centers. Investors always place value on the exit liquidity implied by larger markets. Some markets stand out from this pattern, however, with a few gateway markets posting lower cap rates, even if they are smaller than other major markets. Boston, Miami and Seattle have stabilized Class A cap rates for neighborhood centers below 6%, while San Francisco has a 4.9% cap rate. continues to enjoy the healthiest fundamentals among the main property sectors. Vacancy stood at 5.0% at mid-year 2013, down from 5.2% a year earlier. The long-term average vacancy rate for the sector is anywhere between 5% and 6%, and as demand continues to grow, rents are climbing as well, albeit at a slower pace. Effective market rents are up 3.1% from a year earlier, but rents were up nearly 5% in Renters can absorb only so much of a rent increase. Still, while rents are not growing as quickly as they had in the past, cap rates for the multi-housing sector are the lowest among the major property sectors. For Class A stabilized assets in urban locations, cap rates came in at 3.5% for mid-year 2013 in Los Angeles and 3.9% in San Diego. Suburban assets in markets like San Francisco, San Diego, Los Angeles and Orange County have stabilized Class A cap rates below 4.5%. In the hotel sector the revenue per available room (RevPAR) continued to grow in the first half of In the full-service segment, RevPAR was up 5.6% from a year earlier, while the limited-service sector was up 7.0% from mid-year This pace of RevPAR growth is down somewhat since the start of the economic recovery in In the limited-service sector, for instance, the average pace of annual RevPAR growth from the middle of 2010 through the middle of 2012 was 9.0%. The supply of rooms was fairly constrained during that time frame, however. The CBRE Cap Rate Survey shows that investors are placing the most value on the RevPAR trends from the luxury segments for assets in CBD locations, with an average 7.3% cap rate across markets. The economy segments have an average cap rate of 9.8%, though the range is fairly wide, with markets falling anywhere from 8.5% to 11.3% on the spectrum. 7

8 Investment volume in the office sector in the 12 months ending at mid-year 2013 was up 27% compared to the year-earlier period, with total volume of $88 billion, according to Real Capital Analytics (RCA). To put this figure into perspective, office transaction volume averaged about $76 billion per year from 2003 to Volume is still down from the average pace of $176 billion per year recorded in 2006 and 2007, but those figures represented an artificial high. Suburban submarkets accounted for about 50% of the volume during the past 12 months. This shift is significant, as that segment has seen sales grow at a slower pace in the early stages of the economic recovery when investors were mostly focused on CBD office investments. The CBRE Cap Rate Survey provides insight into how these trends will evolve over the next six months. CBRE Capital Markets and Valuation professionals expect that across the 40 suburban markets surveyed, cap rates for stabilized Class A assets will remain flat or increase in 33 markets over the next six months. In CBD submarkets, the same basic pattern is in place, with cap rates expected to be flat or expand over the next six months in 35 of the 41 markets surveyed. CLICK TO DOWNLOAD Select from the list below to access the current CBD office key ratios, forecast and interactive map. Download a Complete CBD Current Key Ratios Chart (PDF) Download a Complete CBD Current Forecast Chart (PDF) NEW Download the Complete CBD Current Key Ratios Map (Interactive PDF) Select from the list below to access the current suburban office key ratios, forecast and interactive map. NEW Download a Complete Suburban Current Key Ratios Chart (PDF) Download a Complete Suburban Current Forecast Chart (PDF) Download the Complete Suburban Current Key Ratios Map (Interactive PDF) 8

9 CBD Eastern Region Baltimore 6.00% % 7.00% % 8.50% % Boston 4.50% % 5.50% % 5.50% % Charlotte 6.50% % 8.00% % 7.25% % New York 4.50% 5.50% 5.50% Philadelphia 7.00% % 7.50% % 8.50% % Pittsburgh 7.50% % 8.25% % 8.50% % Raleigh 6.75% % 7.50% % 7.75% % Washington, DC 4.50% % 6.00% % 5.50% % * Compared to 2nd half % % 9.50% % 12.00% % % 7.00% % 7.75% % 9.00% % 8.00% % 10.00% % 6.00% N/A N/A N/A 9.00% % 9.00% % 9.50% % 9.25% % 11.00% % 11.00% % 8.25% % 8.50% % 8.75% % 7.00% % 7.50% % 8.50% % Baltimore Boston Charlotte New York N/A N/A Philadelphia Pittsburgh Raleigh Washington, DC 9

10 CBD Midwestern Region Chicago 5.75% % 8.00% % 7.00% % 8.50% % 8.50% % 9.50% % Cincinnati 7.50% % 8.50% % 9.00% % 10.00% % 10.00% % 11.50% % Cleveland 9.00% % N/A N/A N/A N/A 10.00% % N/A N/A 11.00% % Columbus 7.50% % 9.00% % 8.50% % 9.75% % 10.00% % 11.00% % Detroit 9.00% % 9.50% % 10.00% % 10.00% % 12.00% % 12.00% % Indianapolis 8.00% % 8.50% % 9.50% % 10.00% % 12.00% % 14.00% + Kansas City 8.25% % 9.25% % 9.50% % 10.50% % 11.00% % 12.00% + Minneapolis 6.50% % 7.50% % 8.00% % 8.50% % 10.00% % 12.00% % St. Louis 8.50% % 9.00% % 9.50% % 10.00% % 10.50% % 11.00% % * Compared to 2nd half 2012 Chicago Cincinnati Cleveland Columbus Detroit Indianapolis Kansas City Minneapolis St. Louis 10

11 CBD Southern Region Atlanta 6.50% % 7.50% % 7.50% % 9.00% % 8.50% % 9.50% % Austin 5.50% % 6.50% % 7.00% % 7.50% % 7.75% % 8.25% % Dallas 6.00% % 6.00% % 8.00% % 8.00% % 9.00% % 10.00% % Houston 5.00% % 6.50% % 6.50% % 7.50% % 9.00% 10.00% Jacksonville 8.00% % 8.50% % 9.00% % 9.50% % 10.50% % 11.00% % Memphis 8.50% % 9.00% % 9.00% % 10.00% % 11.00% % 12.00% + Miami 5.50% % 6.50% % 6.25% % 6.75% % 7.00% % 7.50% % Nashville 6.50% % 7.50% % 8.00% % 9.00% % 9.00% % 10.00% % Orlando 7.00% % 7.50% % 7.50% % 8.00% % 8.00% % 9.00% % San Antonio 6.50% % 7.00% % 8.00% % 8.75% % 10.00% % 11.00% % Tampa 6.50% % 7.50% % 8.00% % 8.75% % 9.25% % 9.75% % * Compared to 2nd half 2012 Atlanta Austin Dallas Houston Jacksonville Memphis Miami Nashville Orlando San Antonio Tampa 11

12 CBD Western Region Albuquerque 8.50% % N/A 9.25% % N/A 9.75% % N/A Denver 5.50% % 6.50% % 6.50% % 7.50% % 8.25% % 9.25% % Las Vegas 7.00% % 8.50% % 8.00% % 9.50% % 9.00% % 9.00% % Los Angeles 4.50% % 7.50% % 5.50% % 8.00% % 6.50% -7.00% 9.00% % Orange County 5.50% % 6.50% % 6.50% % 8.00% % 8.50% % 8.75% % Phoenix 6.50% % 7.00% % 7.00% % 8.00% % 8.00% % 9.50% % Portland 6.25% % 6.75% % 7.00% % 7.50% % 8.00% % 8.50% % Sacramento 6.75% % 7.50% % 7.50% % 8.00% % 8.00% % 9.00% % Salt Lake City 7.25% % 7.75% % 7.50% % 8.00% % 8.50% % 8.00% % San Diego 6.75% % 7.00% % 7.00% % 7.50% % 8.00% % 9.00% % San Francisco 3.00% % 5.50% % 4.00% % 6.50% % 6.75% % 7.25% % San Jose 6.50% % 7.00% % 7.00% % 7.50% % 8.00% % 9.00% % Seattle 5.00% % 6.00% % 5.75% % 7.00% % 7.50% % 8.50% % * Compared to 2nd half 2012 Albuquerque Denver Las Vegas Los Angeles Orange County Phoenix Portland Sacramento Salt Lake City San Diego San Francisco San Jose Seattle 12

13 Suburban Eastern Region Baltimore 6.75% % 7.00% % 8.00% % 9.00% % 9.50% % 12.00% + Boston 5.75% % 6.25% % 6.75% % 7.50% % 8.00% % 9.00% % Charlotte 6.75% % 9.00% % 7.50% % 10.00% % 8.50% % 11.00% % Philadelphia 7.25% % 8.00% % 8.50% % 9.50% % 9.00% % 10.00% % Pittsburgh 8.00% % 8.50% % 8.75% % 9.50% % 11.00% % 11.00% % Raleigh 7.75% % 7.75% % 8.25% % 8.50% % 8.50% % 9.50% % Washington, DC 6.00% % 7.00% % 7.00% % 8.50% % 9.00% % 10.00% % * Compared to 2nd half 2012 Baltimore Boston Charlotte Philadelphia Pittsburgh Raleigh Washington, DC 13

14 Suburban Midwestern Region Chicago 7.00% % 9.00% % 8.25% % 11.00% % 10.75% % 13.00% % Cincinnati 8.00% % 9.50% % 9.00% % 10.00% % 10.00% % 11.00% % Cleveland 8.00% % N/A N/A N/A N/A 10.00% % N/A N/A 11.00% % Columbus 8.00% % 9.00% % 9.00% % 9.75% % 10.75% % 11.00% % Detroit 8.75% % 9.50% % 9.50% % 10.00% % 10.00% % 12.00% % Indianapolis 8.50% % 9.00% % 9.50% % 10.00% % 12.00% % 14.00% + Kansas City 7.25% % 8.00% % 8.50% % 9.50% % 10.00% % 12.00% % Minneapolis 6.50% % 8.00% % 8.75% % 9.50% % 10.00% % 12.00% % St. Louis 7.50% % 8.00% % 9.00% % 9.50% % 10.00% % 11.00% % * Compared to 2nd half 2012 Chicago Cincinnati Cleveland Columbus Detroit Indianapolis Kansas City Minneapolis St. Louis 14

15 Suburban Southern Region Atlanta 7.00% % 8.00% % 7.50% % 9.00% % 9.00% % 10.00% % Austin 6.00% % 7.00% % 7.50% % 8.00% % 7.75% % 8.25% % Dallas 6.25% % 7.00% % 7.50% % 8.00% % 8.75% % 10.00% % Houston 6.00% % 7.00% % 7.00% % 7.50% % 8.50% % 10.00% % Jacksonville 7.50% % 8.00% % 9.00% % 10.00% % 10.50% 12.00% + Memphis 7.50% % 8.25% % 8.00% % 8.50% % 9.00% % 11.00% % Miami 6.50% % 7.25% % 7.25% % 8.25% % 8.00% % 9.00% % Nashville 6.50% % 7.50% % 8.00% % 9.00% % 9.00% % 10.00% % Orlando 8.00% % 8.75% % 9.00% % 10.00% % 10.00% % 12.00% % San Antonio 7.00% % 7.75% % 8.25% % 9.00% % 10.00% % 11.00% % Tampa 7.00% % 8.00% % 8.50% % 9.00% % 9.50% % 10.00% % * Compared to 2nd half 2012 Atlanta Austin Dallas Houston Jacksonville Memphis Miami Nashville Orlando San Antonio Tampa 15

16 Suburban Western Region Albuquerque 8.00% % N/A 9.00% % N/A 9.00% % N/A Denver 7.00% % 7.50% % 7.50% % 8.50% % 9.00% % 11.25% % Las Vegas 7.00% % 8.50% % 8.00% % 9.50% % 9.00% % 9.00% % Los Angeles 4.50% % 7.00% % 5.50% % 7.50% % 6.50% % 8.50% % Orange County 5.50% % 6.50% % 6.50% % 8.00% % 8.50% % 8.75% % Phoenix 6.50% % 7.25% % 7.00% % 8.00% % 9.50% % 11.00% % Portland 7.25% % 7.75% % 8.00% % 8.50% % 8.75% % 8.50% % Sacramento 7.00% % 7.75% % 8.00% % 8.75% % 9.00% % 9.75% % Salt Lake City 7.25% % 7.75% % 7.50% % 8.00% % 9.00% % 10.00% % San Diego 6.25% % 6.50% % 7.00% % 7.50% % 7.75% % 8.25% % San Francisco 5.00% % 6.50% % 6.75% % 7.00% % 7.50% % 8.00% % San Jose 7.00% % 7.50% % 7.50% % 8.00% % 8.00% % 9.00% % Seattle 6.00% % 6.50% % 6.50% % 7.50% % 7.50% % 9.00% % * Compared to 2nd half 2012 Albuquerque Denver Las Vegas Los Angeles Orange County Phoenix Portland Sacramento Salt Lake City San Diego San Francisco San Jose Seattle 16

17 Among all sectors of commercial real estate investment, multi-housing saw the earliest turnaround in investor interest, as the positive trends in income fundamentals seen over the past two years had been widely expected. The stabilizing influence of the debt provided by the governmentsponsored enterprises (Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae) was an enormous boost to market liquidity as well. transaction volume for the 12 months ended June 30, 2013 totaled $104 billion, according to RCA. While this figure is still off from the high-water mark of $105.6 billion recorded in 2007, considering the recent pace of growth it is not quite so far from the peak. If transaction velocity continues at the same pace through the second half of the year, the market could see $133 billion in transaction activity for 2013 and set a new high. CBRE Capital Markets and Valuation professionals expect that, of the 40 markets surveyed, only seven will experience compression in cap rates for Class A stabilized assets in infill locations over the next six months. With the exception of Dallas, the markets where further compression is expected are secondary and tertiary markets. That said, CBRE does not expect further compression in all secondary and tertiary markets. The expectation is that cap rates for Class A stabilized assets will be flat or increase in virtually all suburban submarkets. CLICK TO DOWNLOAD Select from the list below to access the current multi-housing infill/urban key ratios, forecast and interactive map. Download a Complete Infill/Urban Current Key Ratios Chart (PDF) Download a Complete Infill/Urban Current Forecast Chart (PDF) NEW Download the Complete Infill/Urban Current Key Ratios Map (Interactive PDF) Select from the list below to access the current multi-housing suburban key ratios, forecast and interactive map. NEW Download a Complete Suburban Current Key Ratios Chart (PDF) Download a Complete Suburban Current Forecast Chart (PDF) Download the Complete Suburban Current Key Ratios Map (Interactive PDF) 17

18 Infill/Urban Eastern Region Baltimore 4.50% % Boston 4.00% % Charlotte 4.75% % New York 4.00% % Philadelphia 5.00% % Pittsburgh 6.00% % Raleigh 4.75% % Washington, DC 4.00% % * Compared to 2nd Half % % 5.00% % 4.75% % 4.75% % 5.25% % 5.50% % 5.00% % 4.50% % 5.50% % 6.25% % 6.50% % 6.50% % 6.25% % 5.25% % N/A 5.25% 5.50% % 5.50% % 5.75% % 5.50% % 5.00% % N/A 5.75% % 5.75% % 6.50% % 6.75% % 5.50% % 5.00% % 6.00% % 6.50% % 7.00% % 7.25% % 7.00% % 8.00% % 8.50% % N/A N/A N/A N/A 5.50% N/A N/A 5.50% Baltimore Boston Charlotte New York Philadelphia Pittsburgh Raleigh Washington, DC 18

19 Infill/Urban Midwestern Region Chicago 4.25% % 4.50% % 5.00% % 5.50% % 5.50% % 5.75% % Cincinnati 5.50% % 6.50% % 6.75% % 7.25% % 8.25% % 8.75% % Cleveland 6.50% % N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Columbus 6.25% % 6.50% % 7.25% % 7.50% % 8.50% % 9.00% % Detroit 6.75% % 7.00% % 7.50% % 7.75% % 8.75% % 8.75% % Indianapolis 5.50% % 6.00% % 6.00% % 6.50% % 6.75% % 7.75% % Kansas City N/A N/A N/A 6.00% % N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Minneapolis 4.75% % 5.25% % 5.75% % 6.00% % 6.75% % 7.00% % St. Louis 5.25% % N/A 6.10% % N/A 8.00% % N/A * Compared to 2nd Half 2012 Chicago Cincinnati Cleveland Columbus Detroit Indianapolis Kansas City Minneapolis St. Louis 19

20 Infill/Urban Southern Region Atlanta 5.00% % 5.50% % 5.50% % 6.25% % 7.25% % 8.00% % Austin 4.25% % 4.50% % 4.50% % 4.75% % 4.75% % 5.00% % Dallas 4.75% % N/A 6.25% % N/A 7.25% % N/A Houston 4.50% % 4.75% % 6.00% % 6.25% % 7.00% % 7.25% % Jacksonville 5.25% % 6.00% % 6.00% % N/A 6.75% % N/A Memphis 5.75% % 6.25% % 6.25% % 6.50% % 8.00% % 8.50% % Miami 4.00% % 4.50% % 4.50% % 4.75% % 6.00% % 6.75% % Nashville 5.00% % 5.50% % 6.00% % 6.25% % 6.75% % 7.25% % Oklahoma City 6.25% N/A 7.00% N/A 9.00% N/A Orlando 5.00% % 5.25% % 6.00% % 6.25% % 6.75% % 7.00% % San Antonio 5.50% % N/A 6.00% % 6.25% % 6.50% % 6.75% % Tampa 4.75% % 5.00% % 5.50% % 6.25% % 6.25% % 6.75% % * Compared to 2nd Half 2012 Atlanta Austin Dallas Houston Jacksonville Memphis Miami Nashville Oklahoma City N/A N/A N/A Orlando San Antonio Tampa 20

21 Infill/Urban Western Region Albuquerque 6.00% % 6.25% % 6.50% % 6.75% % 7.00% % 7.25% % Denver 4.75% % 5.50% % 5.25% % 5.50% % 5.75% % 7.00% % Inland Empire 4.75% % 5.25% % 5.25% % 5.75% % 6.00% % 6.50% % Los Angeles 3.25% % 4.75% % 3.50% % 4.75% % 5.50% % N/A Phoenix 4.75% % 5.75% % 5.25% % 6.25% % 6.00% % 7.00% % Portland 4.50% % 4.75% % 4.75% % 5.25% % 5.50% % 6.00% % Sacramento 4.75% % 5.25% % 5.25% % 5.50% % 6.00% % 6.50% % Salt Lake City 5.50% % 5.75% % 5.75% % 6.00% % 6.00% % 6.25% % San Diego 3.65% % 4.25% % 4.50% % 5.00% % 5.75% % 6.00% % San Francisco Bay Area 3.75% % 5.00% % 3.75% % 5.25% % 4.00% % 6.00% % Seattle 4.00% % 4.50% % 4.75% % 5.00% % 5.25% % 5.75% % * Compared to 2nd Half 2012 Albuquerque Denver Inland Empire Los Angeles Phoenix Portland Sacramento Salt Lake City San Diego San Francisco Bay Area Seattle 21

22 Suburban Eastern Region Baltimore 5.25% % N/A 5.75% % Boston 4.50% % 5.00% % 5.25% % Charlotte 5.25% % 5.50% % 5.75% % Philadelphia 5.00% % 5.75% % 6.25% % Pittsburgh 6.00% % 6.50% % 6.50% % Raleigh 5.00% % 7.25% % 5.50% % Washington, DC 5.10% N/A 5.50% 6.00% % N/A N/A 6.25% % 6.00% % 6.50% % 7.25% % 6.00% % 6.75% % 7.00% % 6.75% % 7.00% % 7.50% % 7.00% % 8.00% % 8.50% % N/A 6.50% % N/A 5.75% N/A N/A 6.00% * Compared to 2nd Half 2012 Baltimore Boston Charlotte Philadelphia New York Pittsburgh Raleigh Washington, DC 22

23 Suburban Midwestern Region Chicago 5.50% % 5.75% % 6.00% % 6.25% % 7.00% % 7.25% % Cincinnati 6.00% % 6.75% % 7.25% % 8.00% % 8.50% % 9.00% % Cleveland 7.00% % N/A 7.25% % N/A 8.00% % 10.00% % Columbus 6.25% % 6.50% % 7.25% % 7.50% % 8.50% % 9.00% % Detroit 6.75% % 7.25% % 7.50% % 8.25% % 8.75% % 8.75% % Indianapolis 5.75% % 6.25% % 6.25% % 6.75% % 7.50% % 8.00% % Kansas City 5.50% % 6.00% % 6.00% % 6.75% % 7.50% % 8.50% % Minneapolis 5.25% % 5.75% % 6.00% % 6.50% % 7.25% % 7.00% % St. Louis 5.50% % N/A 6.30% % N/A 8.00% % N/A * Compared to 2nd Half 2012 Chicago Cincinnati Cleveland Columbus Detroit Indianapolis Kansas City Minneapolis St. Louis 23

24 Suburban Southern Region Atlanta 5.50% % 5.75% % 6.00% % 6.50% % 7.25% % 8.25% % Austin 5.00% % 5.25% % 5.75% % 6.00% % 6.25% % 6.50% % Dallas 5.25% % N/A 6.25% % N/A 7.25% % N/A Houston 5.50% % 5.75% % 6.50% % 6.75% % 7.50% % 8.00% % Jacksonville 5.50% % 6.50% % 6.25% % N/A 7.00% + N/A Memphis 5.75% % 6.50% % 6.75% % 7.00% % 7.50% % 8.75% % Miami 4.00% % 4.75% % 4.75% % 5.00% % 6.00% % 7.00% % Nashville 5.25% % 5.75% % 6.00% % 6.50% % 7.00% % 7.50% % Oklahoma City 6.50% N/A 7.25% N/A 9.00% N/A Orlando 5.00% % N/A 5.25% % 6.25% % N/A 6.50% % 7.00% % N/A 7.25% % San Antonio 5.50% % N/A 6.00% % 6.50% % 7.00% % 7.25% % Tampa 5.25% % 5.50% % 5.75% % 6.00% % 6.50% % 7.00% % * Compared to 2nd Half 2012 Atlanta Austin Dallas Houston Jacksonville Memphis Miami Nashville Oklahoma City N/A N/A N/A Orlando San Antonio Tampa 24

25 Suburban Western Region Albuquerque 6.00% % 6.25% % 6.50% % 6.75% % 7.00% % 7.25% % Denver 5.13% % 5.50% % 5.50% % 5.75% % 6.13% % 7.25% % Inland Empire 5.00% % 5.50% % 5.25% % 5.75% % 6.00% % 6.50% % Las Vegas 5.25% % 5.50% % 6.00% % 6.25% % 7.00% % 7.25% % Los Angeles 3.75% % 5.00% % 4.50% % 5.00% % 5.75% % N/A Orange County 3.75% % N/A 4.75% % 5.25% % 5.75% % 6.00% % Phoenix 5.00% % 6.00% % 5.25% % 6.25% % 6.00% % 7.00% % Portland 5.25% % 5.50% % 5.50% % 5.75% % 6.00% % 6.25% % Sacramento 5.00% % 5.50% % 5.50% % 6.00% % 6.25% % 6.75% % Salt Lake City 5.50% % 5.75% % 5.75% % 6.00% % 6.00% % 6.25% % San Diego 4.00% % 4.50% % 5.00% % 5.50% % 5.75% % 6.00% % San Francisco Bay Area 4.00% % 5.75% % 4.50% % 6.00% % 5.00% % 6.50% % Seattle 4.50% % 4.75% % 5.00% % 5.25% % 6.00% % 6.00% % * Compared to 2nd Half 2012 Albuquerque Denver Inland Empire Las Vegas Los Angeles Orange County Phoenix Portland Sacramento Salt Lake City San Diego San Francisco Bay Area Seattle 25

26 The retail sector continues to see increases in sales volume, despite lagging other property sectors into the early stages of the recovery. For the 12 months through mid-year 2013, sales volume reached $52.9 billion, up from the $46.2 billion pace set during the previous 12 months. This 14.6% increase for retail overall is generally reflected in the trends seen among retail subtypes: Sales volume for strip-center retail was up 16.5% from a year earlier, hitting $22.4 billion in the 12 months through mid-year The mall segment saw volume of $30.6 billion during the same period, up 13.3% from a year earlier. Our survey results suggest that the cap rate compression that began in mid-2010 in the retail sector is now largely over. For Class A stabilized neighborhood center assets, CBRE professionals expect that in the next six months cap rates will remain flat or increase in 34 of the 39 markets surveyed. The same patterns are seen in the power center subtypes. As one moves up the risk spectrum to lower-grade assets, cap rate compression is expected to dwindle in virtually all markets. NEW CLICK TO DOWNLOAD Select from the list below to access the current neighborhood/community center (grocery anchored) retail key ratios, forecast and interactive map. Download a Complete Neighborhood/Community Center (Grocery Anchored) Current Key Ratios Chart (PDF) Download a Complete Neighborhood/Community Center (Grocery Anchored) Current Forecast Chart (PDF) Download the Complete Neighborhood/Community Center (Grocery Anchored) Current Key Ratios Map (Interactive PDF) Select from the list below to access the current power center retail key ratios, forecast and interactive map. NEW Download a Complete Power Center Current Key Ratios Chart (PDF) Download a Complete Power Center Current Forecast Chart (PDF) Download the Complete Power Center Current Key Ratios Map (Interactive PDF) Select from the list below to access the current high street retail key ratios, forecast and interactive map. NEW Download the Complete High Street Current Key Ratios and Forecast Charts (PDF) Download the Complete High Street Current Key Ratios Map (Interactive PDF) 26

27 Neighborhood/Community Center (Grocery Anchored) Eastern Region Baltimore 5.50% % 7.00% % 7.00% % 8.00% % 8.00% % 9.50% % Boston 5.50% % 6.50% % 6.75% % 7.50% % 8.50% % 10.00% + Charlotte 6.25% % 6.75% % 7.25% % 8.00% % 8.00% % 8.50% % Philadelphia 7.00% % 7.00% % 8.00% % 8.00% % 9.00% % 9.00% % Pittsburgh 6.75% % 8.00% % 8.00% % 9.00% % 9.50% % 11.00% % Raleigh 6.25% % 6.75% % 7.25% % 8.00% % 8.00% % 8.50% % Washington, DC 5.50% % 7.00% % 7.00% % 8.00% % 8.00% % 9.50% % * Compared to 2nd Half 2012 Baltimore Boston Charlotte Philadelphia Pittsburgh Raleigh Washington, DC 27

28 Neighborhood/Community Center (Grocery Anchored) Midwestern Region Chicago 5.90% % 6.50% % 6.75% % Cincinnati 6.75% % 7.75% % 8.00% % Cleveland 6.75% % 7.00% % 7.50% % Columbus 6.75% % 7.25% % 7.00% % Detroit 7.00% % 8.50% % 7.50% % Indianapolis 6.25% % 6.75% % 7.00% % Kansas City 6.25% % 6.75% % 7.00% % Minneapolis 6.00% % 8.25% % 6.50% % St. Louis 6.25% % 6.75% % 7.00% % * Compared to 2nd Half % % 7.50% % 8.50% % 9.00% % 9.00% % 10.00% % 8.00% % 8.50% % 9.00% % 7.75% % 8.00% % 8.75% % 10.00% % 8.50% % 12.00% % 7.75% % 8.00% % 8.75% % 7.75% % 8.00% % 8.75% % 9.00% % 7.00% % 9.50% % 7.75% % 8.00% % 8.75% % Chicago Cincinnati Cleveland Columbus Detroit Indianapolis Kansas City Minneapolis St. Louis 28

29 Neighborhood/Community Center (Grocery Anchored) Southern Region Atlanta 5.75% % 7.50% % 6.50% % 8.00% % 7.00% % 9.00% % Austin 5.50% % 6.00% % 6.50% % 7.00% % 7.75% % 8.25% % Dallas 5.75% % 8.25% % 7.00% % 8.75% % 8.25% % 9.25% % Houston 5.50% % 8.00% % 7.00% % 9.00% % 8.50% % 10.00% % Jacksonville 6.50% % 8.00% % 7.00% % 9.00% % 9.50% % 11.00% % Memphis 7.00% % 8.00% % 7.50% % 8.50% % 10.00% % 11.00% % Miami 5.25% % 6.50% % 6.00% % 7.00% % 7.50% % 8.00% % Nashville 7.00% % 8.00% % 8.00% % 9.00% % 9.00% % 10.00% % Orlando 6.25% % 7.00% % 6.75% % 8.00% % 8.00% % 10.00% + San Antonio 5.75% % 6.25% % 6.50% % 7.00% % 8.50% % 9.00% % Tampa 6.25% % 7.00% % 6.75% % 8.00% % 8.00% % 10.00% + * Compared to 2nd Half 2012 Atlanta Austin Dallas Houston Jacksonville Memphis Miami Nashville Orlando San Antonio Tampa 29

30 Neighborhood/Community Center (Grocery Anchored) Western Region Denver 6.00% % N/A 7.00% % 8.00% % 8.50% % 9.00% % Las Vegas 6.50% % 7.00% % 7.00% % 7.50% % 7.50% % 9.00% % Los Angeles 5.50% % 6.50% % 6.50% -7.00% 7.50% % 8.00% % 9.00% % Orange County 5.50% % 6.50% % 6.50% % 7.50% % 8.00% % 9.00% % Phoenix 5.75% % 6.75% % 6.50% % 8.00% % 8.00% % 10.00% % Portland 5.50% % 7.00% % 6.50% % 8.00% % 8.00% % 10.00% % Sacramento 6.75% % 7.00% % 7.25% % 8.00% % 8.25% % 9.00% % Salt Lake City 7.00% % 7.50% % 7.50% % 8.00% % 8.00% % 8.50% % San Diego 5.50% % 6.50% % 6.50% % 7.50% % 8.00% % 9.00% % San Francisco 4.50% % 4.75% % 6.00% % 6.75% % 7.25% % 8.00% % San Jose 6.00% % 5.75% % 7.00% % 6.75% % 7.75% % 7.50% % Seattle 5.25% % 6.00% % 6.25% % 7.00% % 7.25% % 8.00% % * Compared to 2nd Half 2012 Denver Las Vegas Los Angeles Orange County Phoenix Portland Sacramento Salt Lake City San Diego San Francisco San Jose Seattle 30

31 Power Center Eastern Region Baltimore 6.75% % 7.50% % 7.50% % Boston 6.00% % 7.50% % 7.00% % Charlotte 6.75% % 7.25% % 7.25% % Philadelphia 7.00% % 7.00% % 8.00% % Pittsburgh 7.75% % 9.00% % 9.00% % Raleigh 6.75% % 7.25% % 7.25% % Washington, DC 6.00% % 7.50% % 7.50% % 8.50% % 9.00% % 10.00% % 8.00% % 8.00% + N/A 7.75% % 7.50% % 8.50% % 8.00% % 9.00% % 10.00% % 10.00% % 11.00% % 12.00% % 7.75% % 8.50% % 10.50% % 8.50% % 9.00% % 10.00% % * Compared to 2nd Half 2012 Baltimore Boston Charlotte Philadelphia Pittsburgh Raleigh Washington, DC 31

32 Power Center Midwestern Region Chicago 6.25% % 6.75% % 6.75% % 7.75% % 7.50% % 9.00% % Cincinnati 6.75% % 7.75% % 7.50% % 8.50% % 9.00% % 10.00% % Cleveland 6.75% % 7.25% % 7.50% % 8.25% % 8.25% % 9.75% % Columbus 6.50% % 7.00% % 7.25% % 8.00% % 8.00% % 9.50% % Detroit 7.50% % 9.00% % 8.50% % 10.50% % 9.50% % 12.50% % Indianapolis 6.50% % 7.00% % 7.25% % 8.00% % 8.00% % 9.50% % Kansas City 6.50% % 7.00% % 7.25% % 8.00% % 8.00% % 9.50% % Minneapolis 7.00% % 8.50% % 7.50% % 9.00% % 8.00% % 9.50% % St. Louis 6.50% % 7.00% % 7.25% % 8.00% % 8.00% % 9.50% % * Compared to 2nd Half 2012 Chicago Cincinnati Cleveland Columbus Detroit Indianapolis Kansas City Minneapolis St. Louis 32

33 Power Center Southern Region Atlanta 6.75% % 7.50% % 7.50% % 8.00% % 8.50% % 9.00% % Austin 6.75% % 7.25% % 7.25% % 7.75% % 8.50% % 9.00% % Dallas 7.00% % 8.00% % 8.00% % 8.50% % 9.75% 9.50% % Houston 6.50% % 9.00% % 7.00% % 9.50% % 8.25% % 10.50% % Jacksonville 7.00% % 8.50% % 7.50% % 9.50% % 10.00% % 11.00% % Memphis 8.25% % 8.50% % 8.75% % 9.50% % 10.00% % 11.00% % Miami 6.00% % 7.00% % 6.50% % 7.50% % N/A N/A 8.00% % Nashville 7.00% % 8.00% % 8.00% % 9.00% % 9.00% % 10.00% % Orlando 6.25% % 7.00% % 6.75% % 8.00% % 8.00% % 10.00% + San Antonio 7.00% % 7.50% % 7.50% % 8.00% % 8.00% % 8.50% % Tampa 6.25% % 7.00% % 6.75% % 8.00% % 8.00% % 10.00% + * Compared to 2nd Half 2012 Atlanta Austin Dallas Houston Jacksonville Memphis Miami Nashville Orlando San Antonio Tampa 33

34 Power Center Western Region Denver 6.00% % N/A 7.75% % 8.75% % 9.00% % 9.50% % Las Vegas 6.50% % 7.50% % 7.00% % 8.25% % 7.50% % 9.50% % Los Angeles 6.00% % 7.00% % 7.00% % 8.00% % 8.00% % 9.00% % Orange County 6.00% % 7.00% % 7.00% % 8.00% % 8.00% % 9.00% % Phoenix 6.00% % 7.00% % 6.50% % 8.00% % 8.00% % 10.00% % Portland 6.00% % 7.50% % 7.00% % 8.50% % 8.50% % 11.00% % Sacramento 6.50% % 7.00% % 7.25% % 8.00% % 8.25% % 9.00% % Salt Lake City 7.25% % 7.75% % 8.00% % 8.50% % 8.50% % 9.00% % San Diego 6.00% % 7.00% % 7.00% % 8.00% % 8.00% % 9.00% % San Francisco 5.25% % 6.75% % 6.00% % 6.25% % 8.00% % 8.00% % San Jose 6.25% % 7.00% % 7.25% % 7.75% % 9.00% % 9.50% % Seattle 6.00% % 7.00% % 7.00% % 8.50% % 8.00% % 9.50% % * Compared to 2nd Half 2012 Denver Las Vegas Los Angeles Orange County Phoenix Portland Sacramento Salt Lake City San Diego San Francisco San Jose Seattle 34

35 High Street National Class A Boston 3.75% % Chicago 4.50% % Los Angeles 4.50% % Manhattan 4.00% % Miami 4.00% % Philadelphia 5.50% % San Francisco 4.50% % Seattle 4.50% % Washington, DC 5.50% % * Compared to 2nd Half 2012 Class A Boston Chicago Charlotte Los Angeles Manhattan Miami Philadelphia San Francisco Seattle Washington, DC 35

36 For the 12 months through mid-year 2013, transaction activity in the industrial sector was $42.1 billion, up 33.7% over the year-earlier period. Most of this growth came in the warehouse segments, which saw volume of $28.6 billion through mid-year 2013, up $9.2 billion from a year earlier. The flex segment, by contrast, experienced an only $1.4 billion improvement to hit $13.6 billion in volume. Scaling for size, these figures imply growth rates of 47.5% and 11.8% for the warehouse and flex segments, respectively. If total volume for the remainder of 2013 continues on the pace set in the first half of the year, volume could reach $44.8 billion by year-end. By comparison, the average annual pace set from 2003 to 2007 was roughly $41.0 billion. CBRE Capital Markets and Valuation professionals expect that cap rates for stabilized Class A industrial assets have largely reached the end of the compression that began in early In 35 of the 41 markets surveyed, such cap rates are expected to be flat or increase over the next six months. The same pattern is seen across different grades of industrial assets across the class spectrum. CLICK TO DOWNLOAD Select from the list below to access the current industrial key ratios, forecast and interactive map. Download a Complete Current Key Ratios Chart (PDF) Download a Complete Current Forecast Chart (PDF) NEW Download the Complete Current Key Ratios Map (Interactive PDF) 36

37 Eastern Region Baltimore 5.70% % 7.50% % 6.25% % 8.75% % 8.50% % 11.00% % Boston 7.00% % 7.50% % 8.00% % 8.50% % 9.00% % 10.00% % Charlotte 6.75% % 8.00% % 7.25% % 10.00% % 8.00% % 9.00% % Northern New Jersey 4.75% % 6.50% % 6.00% % 7.75% % N/A N/A N/A Philadelphia 6.00% % 7.00% % 7.00% % 8.50% % 8.50% % 10.50% % Pittsburgh 7.75% % 9.00% % 8.50% % 12.00% % 10.00% % 15.00% % Raleigh 7.50% % 8.50% % N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Washington, DC 6.00% % 7.00% % 6.75% % 8.00% % 7.50% % 9.00% % * Compared to 2nd Half 2012 Baltimore Boston Charlotte Northern New Jersey Philadelphia Pittsburgh Raleigh Washington, DC 37

38 Midwestern Region Chicago 5.50% % 6.75% % 6.75% % 8.00% % 8.50% % 10.00% % Cincinnati 7.00% % 8.00% % 8.00% % 9.00% % 9.00% % 10.00% % Cleveland 8.00% % 9.00% % 8.00% % 10.00% % 12.00% % 15.00% + Columbus 6.75% % 8.00% % 8.50% % 10.00% % 9.50% % 10.75% % Detroit 8.00% % 9.00% % 9.50% % 10.00% % 11.00% % 11.00% % Indianapolis 6.25% % 7.00% % 7.00% % 8.00% % 8.00% % 9.00% % Kansas City 6.75% % 7.75% % 7.75% % 8.75% % 9.00% % 10.00% % Minneapolis 6.25% % 7.00% % 7.00% % 8.50% % 9.00% % 9.00% % St. Louis 6.75% % 7.00% % 7.50% % 8.00% % 8.50% % 9.00% % * Compared to 2nd Half 2012 Chicago Cincinnati Cleveland Columbus Detroit Indianapolis Kansas City Minneapolis St. Louis * Forecast trends represent the CBRE professional's opinion on where ratios are likely to trend in 2nd half of 2013 in their local market. 38

39 Southern Region Atlanta 6.00% % 7.25% % 7.00% % 8.50% % 8.75% % 10.00% % Austin 6.50% % 7.00% % 7.75% % 8.00% % 8.50% % 8.75% % Dallas 6.00% % 6.50% % 7.00% % 7.75% % 8.00% % 9.00% % Houston 5.25% % 6.25% % 6.25% % 7.50% % 8.25% % 8.75% % Jacksonville 6.50% % 8.25% % 8.00% % 10.50% % 10.00% % 12.00% % Memphis 6.75% % 8.00% % 8.00% % 8.50% % 9.00% % 10.00% % Miami 5.25% % 6.25% % 5.50% % 6.50% % 6.00% % 7.00% % Nashville 6.50% % 7.50% % 8.00% % 9.00% % 9.00% % 10.00% % Orlando 6.00% % 7.00% % 8.00% % 9.00% % 9.50% % 10.00% % San Antonio 6.75% % 7.25% % 7.75% % 8.25% % 8.75% % 9.75% % Tampa 6.50% % 7.25% % 7.25% % 8.50% % 9.00% % 9.50% % * Compared to 2nd Half 2012 * Compared to 2nd Half 2012 Atlanta Austin Dallas Houston Jacksonville Memphis Miami Nashville Orlando San Antonio Tampa 39