WA S H I N G TO N / BALT I M O R E
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1 D E L T A A S S O C I A T E S WA S H I N G TO N / BALT I M O R E R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O V E R V I E W MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW B y W i l l i a m R i c h, C R E P r e s i d e n t
2 D E L T A A S S O C I A T E S D L T A A C I A T S R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O V E R V I E W WA S H I N G TO N / BALT I M O R E THE ECONOMY MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
3 THE NATIONAL ECONOMY Source: Delta Associates; December 2017.
4 P AY R O L L J O B S ( T H O U S A N D S ) PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Selected Large Metro Areas 12 Months Ending October DFW LA Basin NY Atl Bos South FL Hou Was SF Bay Phx Chi Denver Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; December 2017.
5 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE * Selected Large Metro Areas October 2016 vs. October % 5% 4% October 2016 October 2017 National Rate 4.8% 4.1% 3% 2% 1% YoY Basis Point 0% Den DFW Bos SF Bay Was Phx S Fla Atl Hou LA NY Chi Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; December *Not seasonally adjusted.
6 P AY R O L L J O B S ( T H O U S A N D S ) PROJECTED JOB GROWTH Washington Metro Area Year Annual Average = 44,100/Year 4-Year Projected Average = 39,500/Year The District Sub MD No VA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis, Delta Associates; December 2017.
7 PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Washington Metro Area 12 Months Ending October 2017 Professional/Business Services Education/Health Leisure/Hospitality Construction/Mining Other Services Retail Trade State and Local Government Transportation/Utilities Financial Activities Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Information Federal Government 51,500-5,100-5,000 1,000 7,000 13,000 19,000 25,000 J O B C H A N G E Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; December 2017.
8 PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Washington Metro Area 12 Months Ending October 2017 Professional/Business Services Education/Health Leisure/Hospitality Construction/Mining Other Services Retail Trade State and Local Government Transportation/Utilities Financial Activities Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Information Federal Government 51,500-5,100-5,000 1,000 7,000 13,000 19,000 25,000 J O B C H A N G E Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; December 2017.
9 PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Washington Metro Area 12 Months Ending October 2017 Professional/Business Services Education/Health Leisure/Hospitality Construction/Mining Other Services Retail Trade State and Local Government Transportation/Utilities Financial Activities Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Information Federal Government 51,500-5,100-5,000 1,000 7,000 13,000 19,000 25,000 J O B C H A N G E Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; December 2017.
10 GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT Washington Metro Area % 10.0% 7.7% 6.7% 60.2% Non-Federal Total Federal 39.8% 19.1% 72.8% Non-Federal Total Federal 27.2% 12.8% Other Federal Federal Wages & Salaries Procurement Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Delta Associates; December 2017.
11 FEDERAL SHARE OF TOTAL EMPLOYMENT Washington Metro Area 45% 40% 38% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 11% 10% 5% 0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; December 2017.
12 S Q U A R E F E E T ( M I L L I O N S ) GSA LEASING TRENDS National Capital Region Source: General Services Administration, Delta Associates; December 2017.
13 D E L T A A S S O C I A T E S R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O V E R V I E W THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA HOUSING MARKET
14 Chicago Atlanta Pittsburgh Minneapolis Baltimore Phoenix Dallas New York Houston Philadelphia Boston Miami Washington Denver Seattle San Diego Los Angeles San Francisco P R I C E C H A N G E S R E F L E C T E D I N P U R C H A S E - O N LY I N D I C E S PRICE CHANGES Selected Large Metro Areas 1997 Q % 300% 250% 200% 194.9% 150% 100% 50% 0% Source: FHFA, Delta Associates; December 2017.
15 Seattle Portland Las Vegas Dallas Detroit Denver San Diego Tampa Boston San Francisco Charlotte Washington Los Angeles Minneapolis Phoenix Atlanta Miami New York Cleveland Chicago H O M E P R I C E I N D E X G R O W T H PRICE CHANGES Home Price Indices September 2016 September % 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 6.3% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Source: S&P/Case-Shiller, Delta Associates; December Note: Seasonally adjusted purchase-only index.
16 % C H A N G E PERCENT CHANGE IN HOME PRICES Washington Metro Area vs. 20-City Composite % 15% Washington Metro Area U.S. 20-City Composite 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Source: S&P/Case-Shiller, Delta Associates; December Note: Index change during 12-month period ending August of given year.
17 12- M O. T R A I L I N G A V G. P R I C E C H A N G E HOME SALES AVERAGE PRICE CHANGE Washington Metro Area by Sub-Area* % Core Inner Outer 20% 10% 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3-10% -20% -30% Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; December *Core: DC, Arlington, Alexandria. Inner: Fairfax, Montgomery, Prince George s, Fairfax City, Falls Church. Outer: Loudoun, Prince William, Frederick.
18 D A Y S O N M A R K E T AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET Washington Metro Area by Sub-Area* Existing Homes Market Average at Q3 2017: 39 Days on Market Outer Inner Core 25 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; December *Core: DC, Arlington, Alexandria. Inner: Fairfax, Montgomery, Prince George s, Fairfax City, Falls Church. Outer: Loudoun, Prince William, Frederick.
19 12- M O N T H P R I C E C H A N G E PRICE CHANGE AND INVENTORY Washington Metro Area % 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% 12-Month Price Change (left axis) Months of Inventory (right axis) M O N T H S O F I N V E N T O R Y * Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; December *Months of inventory at current sales pace for last month in each quarter.
20 Mar '07 Sep '07 Mar '08 Sep '08 Mar '09 Sep '09 Mar '10 Sep '10 Mar '11 Sep '11 Mar '12 Sep '12 Mar '13 Sep '13 Mar '14 Sep '14 Mar '15 Sep '15 Mar '16 Sep '16 Mar '17 Sep '17 L I S T I N G S FOR-SALE LISTINGS Washington Metro Area Existing Homes 45,000 40,000 35,000 September 2017: 15,280 Listings 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Year Average at end of September 2017: 19,946 Listings 0 Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; December 2017.
21 District Falls Ch Pr Geo Alex Pr Will Ffx City Arl Ffx Cnty Lou Mont Fred (MD) Fauq M O N T H S O F I N V E N T O R Y AT S A L E S P A C E * MONTHS OF FOR-SALE INVENTORY Washington Metro Area September 2016 and September 2017 September September September 2017: 2.8 Months September 2016: 2.8 Months Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; December *Months of Inventory at September Figure reflects number of listings divided by homes sold in one month.
22 H O U S I N G U N I T S S O L D RESALE VOLUME OF ALL HOUSING TYPES Washington Metro Area ,000 60,000 40,000 20, * Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; December *Total for 12 months ending September 2017.
23 D AY S O N M A R K E T 12-MONTH AVG. DAYS ON MARKET EXISTING HOMES Washington Metro Area Year Average = 63 Days * Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; December *At Third Quarter (all other years at Fourth Quarter).
24 H O U S I N G U N I T S L I S T E D ACTIVE LISTINGS FOR ALL HOUSING TYPES Washington Metro Area ,000 40,000 40,074 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 12,776 15,280 5,000 0 Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; December Note: Listings at end of Third Quarter.
25 P E R C E N T O F S I N G L E - F A M I LY D E T A C H E D T O T O T A L P E R M I T S RATIO OF SINGLE-FAMILY DETACHED PERMITS Washington Metro Area 1-Unit Permits vs. Total Permits 80% 70% 60% 50% 52.1% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: U.S. Census, Delta Associates; December Note: Used annual data at metropolitan level.
26 D E L T A A S S O C I A T E S R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O V E R V I E W THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA APARTMENT MARKET
27 U N I T S ( A L L C L A S S E S ) LONG-TERM ANNUAL APARTMENT ABSORPTION National Market Leaders 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Class A Only Past 12 Months: 11,126 DFW Hou Atl Was LA Basin Phx Denver Chi South FL Bos SF Bay Source: REIS, Delta Associates; December Note: Excludes NY metro to conserve scale.
28 M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S CLASS A APARTMENT ABSORPTION Washington Metro Area ,000 Long-Term Average = 7,023 Average Since 2008 = 7,999 Annual Average ~ 10,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, * Source: Delta Associates; December *12 months ending September 2017.
29 V A C A N C Y R AT E ( A L L C L A S S E S ) STABILIZED APARTMENT VACANCY RATES Major Apartment Markets Second Quarter % 7% 6% National Vacancy Rate = 4.4% 5% 4% 4.4% 3% 2% 1% 0% LA Balt NY Phi Chi Phx Wash Atl DFW Bos Hou Source: REIS, Delta Associates; December 2017.
30 PROJECTS CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION Northern Virginia In Lease-up Not Yet Leasing Source: Delta Associates; December 2017.
31 C L A S S A M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S APARTMENT DELIVERIES Washington Metro Area ,000 4,000 The District Sub MD No VA Class A Quarterly Absorption = 2,893 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q Source: Delta Associates; December 2017.
32 M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S 36-MONTH APARTMENT DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE* Washington Metro Area ,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Source: Delta Associates; December *Market-Rate Units Planned and Under Construction. **As of Third Quarter.
33 C L A S S A M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S PROJECTED DELIVERIES 36-Month Development Pipeline Washington Metro Area ,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, The District Sub MD No VA Class A Projected Quarterly Absorption = 2,500 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q Source: Delta Associates; December 2017.
34 MARKET-RATE UNITS (THOUSANDS) DEMAND AND SUPPLY PROJECTIONS Washington Metro Area Class A Apartments 36 Months Ending September DEMAND Net Absorption: 10,000/Year = 30,000 SUPPLY Planned and may deliver by 9/20: 6,329 units 1 Under construction: 28,808 units 2 0 No VA Sub MD The District 2.9% 3.5% 4.9% Projected Stabilized Vacancy % at September 2020 Projected Stabilized Vacancy Rate at Sept. 2020: 3.5% Metro-Wide Total = 35,137 units 1 Probable supply after projected attrition. 2 Includes unleased units at projects in lease-up. Source: Delta Associates; December 2017.
35 ANNUAL CLASS A APARTMENT EFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH Washington Metro Area % 8% Long-Term Average = 4.0% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% * Source: Delta Associates; December * Annual rent growth at Third Quarter 2017 is 0.2%.
36 D E L T A A S S O C I A T E S R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O V E R V I E W THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA CONDOMINIUM MARKET
37 U N I T S ( T H O U S A N D S ) LARGEST CONDOMINIUM MARKETS Selected Metro Areas NY South FL Chi LA Basin Bos Wash SF Bay Sea Tampa Bay Den Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Delta Associates; December 2017.
38 CONDOMINIUM SALES ACTIVITY Washington Metro Area 12 Mos. Ending September 2017 Compared to Prior Year Up more than 1% Down 1% - 25% Down 26% - 50% Down more than 50% Source: Delta Associates; December 2017.
39 U N I T S ANNUAL CONDOMINIUM RESALES Washington Metro Area ,000 Average From = 17,890 20,000 Average Since 2013 = 15,023 18,000 16,000 Average From = 11,280 14,000 12,000 10,000 8, Source: Delta Associates; December *12 months ending August 2017.
40 EFFECTIVE NEW CONDOMINIUM SALES PRICE CHANGE Washington Metro Area % 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 0.6% 1.3% -2% -4% -6% Source: Delta Associates; December *12 months ending September 2017.
41 NEW CONDOMINIUM AVERAGE PRICE PER SF Washington Metro Area Third Quarter 2017 $1,200 $1,164 $1,000 $1,028 $800 $600 $714 $675 $611 $537 $400 $363 $200 $189 $160 $0 Upper NW DC Central DC Mideast DC Cap East DC Arl/Alex Mont Ffx/FC Lou/PrWm Pr. George's Source: Delta Associates; December 2017.
42 Source: The Mark Company, Miller Samuel Inc., Delta Associates, December *Third Quarter 2017 except for Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens which are as of Second Quarter NEW CONDOMINIUM AVERAGE PRICE PER SF Selected Downtown Areas in the U.S. Third Quarter 2017* $2,400 $2,100 $2,100 $1,800 $1,500 $1,200 $1,164 $1,127 $1,118 $1,039 $1,032 $1,028 $900 $802 $714 $691 $677 $600 $399 $300 $0 Manhattan Upper NW DC San Francisco Brooklyn Seattle Central DC Queens L.A. Mideast DC San Diego Capitol East DC Baltimore City
43 RESALE CONDOMINIUM SALES PRICE CHANGE Washington Metro Area % 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -0.7% -10% * Source: Delta Associates; December * 12 months ending August 2017.
44 M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S NEW CONDOMINIUMS ACTIVELY MARKETING OR U/C Washington Metro Area ,000 20,000 16,000 12,000 8,000 4,000 2, Source: Delta Associates; December Note: Number of units are for September of each year.
45 MONTHS OF NEW CONDOMINIUM SUPPLY Washington Metro Area * Source: Delta Associates; December *Fourth Quarter Projection
46 MONTHS OF NEW CONDOMINIUM SUPPLY Washington Metro Area Third Quarter 2017 Source: Delta Associates; December 2017.
47 M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S DEMAND AND SUPPLY PROJECTIONS Washington Metro Area Condominiums 36 Months Ending September ,000 3,500 D E M A N D Net Sales: 2,025/Year = 6,075 units 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, The District No VA Sub MD SUPPLY Planned and May Begin Marketing by 9/20: 2,294 units 1 Under Construction and/or Marketing: 2,776 units 2 Total = 5,070 units 1 Probable supply after projected attrition. 2 Includes unsold units at projects selling. Source: Delta Associates; December 2017.
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