Washington Building Congress. The U.S. and Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook
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1 Washington Building Congress The U.S. and Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University April 3, 5 % U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 7 5 Forecast Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics April 5 GMU Center for Regional Analysis
2 U.S. Leading Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices Mfg N-Mfg Source: Institute for Supply Management GMU Center for Regional Analysis
3 U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector 4 5 Ranked by Size in 5 Educ & Health Svcs Prof. & Bus. Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Financial Construction Wlse Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Federal Govt. Information (s) Total = 3, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector Feb 5 5 Ranked by Size in 4 Educ & Health Svcs Prof. & Bus. Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Financial Construction Wlse Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Federal Govt. Information (s) Total = Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
4 (s) 5 Initial Claims for Unemployment -Present 4-Week Moving Average Apr 94 Source: Department of Labor U.S. Unemployment Rate % = 5.5 IHS FCST Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), IHS Economics April 5 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 4
5 Consumer Confidence Current Situation Expectations Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis $/barrel 8 4 Oil Prices $ per barrel Forecast > > > > > Source: IHS Economics April GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5
6 5 4 3 % Consumer Prices - 9 Forecast > > > Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Economics April 5 Interest Rates Forecast > > > Yr -Yr Treas Fed Source: IHS Economics April 5 GMU Center for Regional Analysis
7 % 5 Growth in Total Consumption Outlays Forecast > > > > Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics April 5 From the Recession to the Federal Sequester and Shutdown GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
8 WMSA Payroll Job Change: Private Sector The Great Recession and Recovery Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Aug 8-Feb Feb (s) Total 8 Total Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis The GRP* Effects of Private Sector Job Change in the Washington Metropolitan Area Aug 8-ch 5 (in 4 $s) Job Change Total GRP Value - 8,3 - $9,44,4, + 3,7 + $,75,, + 4,4 - $,88,94, Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis *Gross Regional Product $, per job contribution to GRP $99,3 per job contribution to GRP GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
9 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business. % Other Federal.7 % Local Serving Activities 34.8% Total Federal 39.8% Fed Wages & Salaries.% Procurement 9.% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis Summary of Federal Spending Trends in the Washington Metropolitan Area, 3 Federal Procurement Outlays declined $3.3 billion or.% between FY and FY 3. Federal employment has declined since peaking in July, losing,8 jobs or 5.%. Federal payroll declined by $.4 billion or 5.7% between FY and FY 4 and will continue to decline as the workforce shrinks and older workers retire and are replaced by younger workers. GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9
10 Federal Government Washington MSA (s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5 Total: 3. $ Billions Federal Procurement in the Washington Metro Area, FY 984 TOTAL = $,4.9 Billion Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report and USAspending.gov GMU Center for Regional Analysis
11 Professional & Business Services Washington MSA (s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5 Total: 79. (s) Average Wage and Job Change Washington Metro Area //4 Job Change (left axis) $ Professional & Business Services 48. $5.4 Education & Health Services 3 Wage (right axis) 58. $4. Leisure & Hospitality (s of 3 $s $ $9 $8 $7 $ $5 $4 $3 $ $ $ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
12 (s of 3 $s) 7. Average Wages in the Washington Metro Area, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis The Household Income Effects of Structural Change in the Washington Metropolitan Area Jurisdiction Median HH Income 3* Change from 9* District (DC) $7,575 $,99 Frederick Cty 84,38 - $5,85 Montgomery Cty 98,3 - $4,55 Prince George s Cty 7,5 - $4, Arlington County,5 - $,75 Fairfax County,79 - $49 Loudoun County,78 - $7,83 Prince Wm County 95,8 - $,34 Alexandria City 8,775 $,985 Total Metro Area $9,49 - $,87 Source: U.S. Census, ACS -Year; GMU Center for Regional Analysis *in 3 dollars GMU Center for Regional Analysis
13 .% 5.% 4.% 3.%.%.%.%.% -.% 5 Largest Metro Area Job kets GRP Percent Change: 3 Washington -.8% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (s) 4% 4% 3% 3% % % % % % 5 Largest Job kets Job Change: 3 4 Washington +.% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
14 4.% 3.5% 3.%.5%.%.5%.%.5%.% 5 Largest Job kets Job Change: 4 5 Washington +.% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Job Change Washington MSA, 5 Annual Data (s) Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 4
15 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector 4 5 Washington MSA - - (s) Total = 5,7 3 (.) (.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Feb 5 5 Washington MSA (s) Total = 7,5 4 (.) (.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5
16 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector 4 5 District of Columbia (s) Total, (.) (.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector 4 5 Suburban yland (s) Total 9, 3 4 (.) (.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5 GMU Center for Regional Analysis
17 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector 4 5 Northern Virginia - (s) Total, 3 (.) (.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area, DC 5.7 U.S. 4.7 SMD 4.9 MSA 4. - NVA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted) GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
18 8. % Largest Job kets Ranked by Unemployment Rate Feb 5 US 5.5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted) Economic Outlook for the Washington Metropolitan Area: 49 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
19 Washington Metropolitan Area and U.S. Economic Growth 9 (annual percent real change) Year U.S. WMSA Sources: IHS Economics, Inc. April 5 ; GMU Center for Regional Analysis % 4 - U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP (Annual % Change) Washington U.S. -4 Source: IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: January 5 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9
20 % Economic Outlook (GRP), 79 Washington Area and Sub-State Areas (Annual % Change) SM NV MSA DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: January 5 Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (s) 3 4* D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Average Annual Change 99 = 35,98 Source: BLS, IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (January 5) NOTE: The regional totals do not include Jefferson, WV. GMU Center for Regional Analysis
21 Principal Sources of Job and GRP Growth in the Washington Area, 49 (in thousands) Growth Job % of Total Average Value Sectors Change Job Change Added per Job* Prof. & Bus. Ser $57,99 Construction $,99 Education/Health 8.7. $7, Hospitality Services 7..4 $5, State and Local. 8.5 $8,73 Sub-Total $9,749 Overall Total 3.9. $54,3 Sources: IHS Global Insight; GMU Center for Regional Analysis *in 4$s Job and GRP Gains and Losses for the Washington Area s Other Sectors, 49 (in thousands) Job % of Total Average Value Change Job Change Added per Job* Federal Gov t $85,84 Retail Trade.5. $4,478 Other Services.. $8,5 Financial Services -.. $,9 Information Services..9 $4,37 Manufacturing.. $49,934 Transportation $3,5 Wholesale Trade.. $5,783 Sub-Totals $97,8 Overall Total 3.9. $54,3 Sources: IHS Economics, Inc.; GMU Center for Regional Analysis *in 4 $s GMU Center for Regional Analysis
22 9 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 7.% Other Federal 8.4% Fed Wages & Salaries 7.3% Total Federal 8.8% Procurement 3.% Local Serving Activities 38.% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis Thank You Questions cra.gmu.edu GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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